Mathew James Burrows is an American intelligence and strategic foresight expert and author.
He is the leading author of several National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends editions, an unclassified assessment of long term key trends, threats and uncertainties used to prepare incoming U.S. Presidents at the beginning of a new Administration, that are widely read and commented upon : "Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future" (December 2004), [1] "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" (November 2008) [2] and "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" (December 2012). [3] [4]
Born in Ohio (August 31, 1953), Burrows earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in American and European History from the Wesleyan University (Connecticut), [5] as well as a Master of Arts degree and PhD in History from the University of Cambridge, [6] United Kingdom.
He lives in Washington, D.C..
He spent almost 25 years with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), including being assigned as special assistant to the US UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke (1999-2001) and detailed to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) during the last decade of his career. After leaving the NIC, he joined the Atlantic Council, a non-partisan public policy think tank based in Washington, D.C, as Director of the Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative. Burrows joined Stimson Center in 2022 as a distinguished fellow and program lead of the Strategic Foresight Center.
At the National Intelligence Council, he established the Long Range Analysis Unit, currently called Strategic Futures Group (2005). While his Global Trends reports were praised as well written and very informative, as well as for the use of scenarios, some have argued that the last one written by Burrows [3] retained a US-centric character, especially by downplaying the issues of climate change and of the mounting trend of conflicts based on religious or cultural identity. [7]
He has been a long-standing partner of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), which is the European institutions' foresight network, since its inception in 2011 [8] and the co-publication by the NIC and the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) of "Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture", [9] the first unclassified report by the National Intelligence Council developed with a non-US organization.
He has provided commentaries on the lack of the US Administration's strategic preparedness for global disasters, such as the coronavirus pandemic. [10] [11]
In March 2021, a brief published by Burrows and Emma Ashford in the Atlantic Council's New American Engagement Initiative’s Reality Checks series regarding United States’ approach to Russia caused a public battle [12] .
After leaving the NIC in 2013, he wrote "The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action", [13] which features both non-fiction and fiction chapters (2014). The book "Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal" (2016), [14] which he co-authored with Alexander Dynkin, President of the Russian Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), was included in the University of Pennsylvania's list of "Best Policy studies and reports published by a Think Tank" in 2016. [15]
He continues to publish reports on global issues under his current position such as "Global Risks 2035: The Search for a New Normal" [16] and its update "Decline or New Renaissance" [17] [18] or on the implications of the COVID19 pandemic. [19]
In late 2023, he published with a German scholar, Josef Braml, a book entitled "Dreamwalkers: How China and the US are sliding into a new World War" [20]
His academic contributions focus on the use of strategic foresight methodologies in government. [21]
The Atlantic Council is an American think tank in the field of international affairs, favoring Atlanticism, founded in 1961. It manages sixteen regional centers and functional programs related to international security and global economic prosperity. It is headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is a member of the Atlantic Treaty Association.
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
James Edmund Moncrieff Elles is a former Conservative Party Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for South East England.
The National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to the Director of National Intelligence, bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts in academia and the private sector. NIC documents and reports which are used by policymakers, include the National Intelligence Estimate and the Global Trends reports delivered every four years. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U.S. policy.
Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
The European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) is a Paris-based agency of the European Union (EU) within the realm of Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The EUISS is an autonomous agency with full intellectual freedom and researches security issues of relevance for the EU and provides a forum for debate. In its capacity as an EU agency, it also offers analyses and forecasting to the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell.
In futurology, especially in Europe, the term foresight has become widely used to describe activities such as:
The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 to validate the competencies of emerging futurists. As analysts, speakers, managers or consultants, APF's credentialed members cultivate strategic foresight for their organizations and clients. APF represents the professional side of the futures movement, while groups such as the World Futures Studies Federation, the World Future Society or The Millennium Project, represent its academic, popular, and activists expressions, respectively.
Megatrends are trends that have an effect on a global scale. Some of the current megatrends relate to global threats.
Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) is a think tank based in India that works on global issues. It was established in 2002.
International Futures (IFs) is a global integrated assessment model designed to help with thinking strategically and systematically about key global systems. It is housed at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Initially created by Barry B. Hughes of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver in Colorado, the model is free for public use in both its online and downloadable forms.
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:
Daniel Burrus is an American technology futurist, business adviser, author, and public speaker in the areas of business strategy, global trends, and disruptive innovation. He has written on the topics of business transformation and technology-driven trends, with his book Flash Forsight becoming a New York Times Bestseller in 2011.
Foresight: The Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy is an international bi-monthly journal published by the Emerald Publishing Group. The name connotes the term "foresight" as it is used in futures studies. Established in 1999, the journal provides a powerful framework and set of techniques that allow for understanding trends and drivers shaping the world, exploring alternative futures, setting priorities and formulating strategies for action. Foresight is a valuable source for futurists and foresight practitioners who should be at the forefront of discovering practical ways to manage 21st century life under growing complexity with a long-term perspective. The journal offers a much-needed forum for sound thinking about the future and socio-technological innovations, and focuses on themes and issues shaping the future, new quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as case studies with novel approaches. The journal is edited by Prof.Dr. Ozcan Saritas since 2009.
Youngsook Park is a leading futurist from South Korea She serves as Chair of Millennium Project Korea Node. She also represents several global futures research organizations such as TechCastGlobal, and Davinci Institute. She has been Information Officer of the British Embassy Seoul (1982–2000) and Director of Public Diplomacy of the Australian Embassy Seoul (2000–2010) where she was trained as a futurist by attending World Future Society conferences, and other futurists meetings. Park is known for bringing global futurists to Korea for the last 30 years, and is a co-organizer of Korea Future Forum along with News1, a Korean news agency, inviting famous futurists to Seoul to speak on futures.
Andy Hines is an American futurist, head of graduate studies in Foresight at the University of Houston, and author of several books on strategic foresight. Hines is a professional futurist, co-creator of the framework foresight method, Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator of the Graduate Program in Foresight at the University of Houston, Principal of foresight consulting firm Hinesight, and former organizational futurist at Kellogg Company and Dow Chemical. He has written extensively on futures studies, strategic foresight, foresight research methods, the role of organizational futurists, and the consumer landscape.
Noah Raford is an American futurist and specialist in public policy, strategy and emerging technologies. He is a founding executive of the Dubai Future Foundation and the Museum of the Future, and is currently the Futurist-in-Chief and Chief of Global Affairs at the Dubai Future Foundation. He was responsible for a project claiming to be the world's first fully functional 3D printed building and a blockchain strategy for Dubai.
Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety.
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