Opinion polling for the 2010 Australian federal election

Last updated

This article provides a list of federal opinion polls that were conducted between the 2007 election and 2010 election.

Contents

JWS poll of 28,000

A JWS Research "mega-poll", published by Fairfax, polled an Australian record 22,000 voters in 54 marginal seats and a further 6,000 in safe seats late in the campaign. It revealed a national two-party preferred vote for Labor of 51.6 percent. Losses in Queensland and New South Wales were offset by the gains of Dunkley, McEwen (both 57 percent), and Cowper and Boothby (both 54 percent), with a total of 79 Labor, 68 coalition, 3 independent. [1] [2]

Newspoll

Newspoll federal polling, published in The Australian , consists of voting intention, better prime minister and leader satisfaction-dissatisfaction ratings, and is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.

Voting intention

(<) – since July 2010, Newspoll has not provided a separate Liberal and National primary vote, therefore from 23–25 July 2010 the Liberal column displays the coalition primary vote.

House of Representatives opinion polling
DatePolitical partiesTwo-party-preferred
ALP Lib Nat Grn OthALPLib/Nat
17–19 Aug 201036.2%43.4%<13.9%6.5%50.2%49.8%
13–15 Aug 201038%41%<14%7%52%48%
6–8 Aug 201038%42%<13%7%52%48%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 201037%44%<12%7%50%50%
23–25 Jul 201040%42%<12%6%52%48%
16–18 Jul 201042%34%4%12%8%55%45%
25–27 Jun 201042%37%3%10%8%53%47%
24 June 2010 Julia Gillard is elected Prime Minister in Labor leadership spill
18–20 Jun 201035%36%4%15%10%52%48%
28–30 May 201035%38%3%16%8%51%49%
14–16 May 201037%40%3%12%8%50%50%
30 Apr-2 May 201035%38%5%10%12%49%51%
16–18 Apr 201043%37%3%10%7%54%46%
26–28 Mar 201043%35%3%12%7%56%44%
12–14 Mar 201039%37%4%11%9%52%48%
26–28 Feb 201040%37%4%9%10%52%48%
12–14 Feb 201039%36%4%12%9%53%47%
29–31 Jan 201040%37%4%12%7%52%48%
15–17 Jan 201040%34%4%12%10%54%46%
4–6 Dec 200943%34%4%11%8%56%44%
27–29 Nov 200943%30%5%12%10%57%43%
13–15 Nov 200943%33%4%11%9%56%44%
30 Oct – 1 Nov 200941%36%5%10%8%52%48%
16–18 Oct 200948%30%4%10%8%59%41%
2 – 4 Oct 2009 [3] 46%31%4%10%9%58%42%
18–20 Sep 200943%33%5%11%8%55%45%
4–6 Sep 200944%35%4%10%7%55%45%
21–23 Aug 200944%34%4%9%9%55%45%
7–9 Aug 200945%33%4%10%8%57%43%
24–26 Jul 200946%34%4%9%7%57%43%
10–12 Jul 200943%34%5%11%7%55%45%
26–28 Jun 200944%32%5%10%9%56%44%
12–14 Jun 200941%36%4%11%8%53%47%
29–31 May 200943%35%3%10%9%55%45%
15–17 May 200946%34%3%9%8%56%44%
1–3 May 200942%35%3%11%9%55%45%
17–19 Apr 200947%33%4%9%7%58%42%
3–5 Apr 200947%32%4%9%8%58%42%
20–22 Mar 200945%32%5%8%10%56%44%
7–9 Mar 200944%32%4%10%10%56%44%
20–22 Feb 200947%33%3%9%8%58%42%
6–8 Feb 200948%32%4%8%8%58%42%
16–18 Jan 200943%35%4%10%8%54%46%
5–7 Dec 200848%32%3%10%7%59%41%
21–23 Nov 200842%33%5%11%9%55%45%
7–9 Nov 200844%35%3%9%9%55%45%
24–26 Oct 200844%36%3%9%8%54%46%
10–12 Oct 200841%34%4%13%8%55%45%
19–21 Sep 200842%34%4%10%10%55%45%
5–7 Sep 200844%34%3%11%8%56%44%
22–24 Aug 200845%34%4%8%9%56%44%
8–10 Aug 200847%33%5%9%6%57%43%
25–27 Jul 200847%33%4%10%6%57%43%
11–13 Jul 200843%33%5%11%8%55%45%
27–29 Jun 200844%34%5%10%7%55%45%
13–15 Jun 200846%29%4%12%9%59%41%
30 May – 1 Jun 200846%33%4%10%7%57%43%
16–18 May 200847%34%3%9%7%57%43%
2–4 May 200847%33%4%9%7%57%43%
18–20 Apr 200851%30%4%9%6%61%39%
4–6 Apr 200848%32%3%10%7%59%41%
14–16 Mar 200847%31%4%11%7%59%41%
29 Feb – 2 Mar 200851%28%3%10%8%63%37%
15–17 Feb 200846%33%3%10%8%57%43%
18–20 Jan 200846%32%3%12%7%58%42%
2007 election 43.4%36.6%5.5%7.8%6.7%52.7%47.3%
20–22 Nov 200744%39%4%7%6%52%48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .

Leader ratings

Better Prime Minister^
DateLabor
Gillard
Liberal
Abbott
17–19 Aug 201050%37%
13–15 Aug 201050%35%
6–8 Aug 201049%34%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 201050%35%
23–25 Jul 201050%34%
16–18 Jul 201057%27%
25–27 Jun 201053%29%
Rudd Abbott
18–20 Jun 201046%37%
28–30 May 201049%33%
14–16 May 201049%33%
30 Apr – 2 May 201050%32%
16–18 Apr 201056%29%
26–28 Mar 201059%27%
12–14 Mar 201055%30%
26–28 Feb 201055%30%
12–14 Feb 201055%27%
29–31 Jan 201058%26%
15–17 Jan 201057%25%
4–6 Dec 200960%23%
Rudd Turnbull
27–29 Nov 200965%14%
13–15 Nov 200963%22%
30 Oct-1 Nov 200963%19%
16–18 Oct 200965%19%
2-4 Oct 2009 [3] 67%18%
18–20 Sep 200965%17%
4–6 Sep 200967%19%
21–23 Aug 200966%19%
7–9 Aug 200965%17%
24–26 Jul 200966%16%
10–12 Jul 200964%19%
26–28 Jun 200965%18%
12–14 Jun 200957%25%
29–31 May 200957%24%
15–17 May 200958%24%
1–3 May 200964%19%
17–19 Apr 200967%19%
3–5 Apr 200967%18%
20–22 Mar 200965%20%
7–9 Mar 200961%21%
20–22 Feb 200964%20%
6–8 Feb 200962%20%
16–18 Jan 200960%22%
5–7 Dec 200866%19%
21–23 Nov 200863%21%
7–9 Nov 200862%22%
24–26 Oct 200859%25%
10–12 Oct 200854%26%
19–21 Sep 200854%24%
Rudd Nelson
5–7 Sep 200862%16%
22–24 Aug 200865%14%
8–10 Aug 200868%12%
25–27 Jul 200866%14%
11–13 Jul 200865%14%
27–29 Jun 200864%15%
13–15 Jun 200868%13%
30 May – 1 Jun 200866%17%
16–18 May 200870%12%
2–4 May 200872%9%
18–20 Apr 200871%10%
4–6 Apr 200873%9%
14–16 Mar 200870%10%
29 Feb – 2 Mar 200873%7%
15–17 Feb 200870%9%
18–20 Jan 200868%11%
30 Nov – 2 Dec 200761%14%
Rudd Howard
20–22 Nov 200747%44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted".
Satisfaction^
GillardAbbott
DateSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
17–19 Aug 201044%43%42%50%
13–15 Aug 201044%38%43%46%
6–8 Aug 201043%41%41%49%
30 Jul – 1 Aug 201042%40%44%46%
23–25 Jul 201041%37%40%46%
16–18 Jul 201048%29%36%51%
25–27 Jun 2010N/A (new)N/A (new)42%41%
RuddAbbott
18–20 Jun 201036%55%38%49%
28–30 May 201036%54%37%49%
14–16 May 201039%51%42%45%
30 Apr – 2 May 201039%50%45%43%
16–18 Apr 201050%41%46%40%
26–28 Mar 201051%39%44%43%
12–14 Mar 201048%41%47%38%
26–28 Feb 201051%40%48%38%
12–14 Feb 201050%40%44%37%
29–31 Jan 201050%38%41%39%
15–17 Jan 201052%34%40%35%
4–6 Dec 200958%32%N/A (new)N/A (new)
RuddTurnbull
27–29 Nov 200956%34%36%50%
13–15 Nov 200956%34%34%50%
30 Oct – 1 Nov 200959%32%32%51%
16–18 Oct 200963%28%32%54%
28 Sep – 1 Oct 200967%21%33%48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
^Remainder were "uncommitted".

Roy Morgan

The Roy Morgan poll consists of two different sampling. There is a face to face interview and a phone interview to sample voting intention, which is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas nationwide.

House of Representatives - face to face interview
Political partiesTwo-party-preferred
ALPLibNatGrnOthALPLib/Nat
7–8 Aug 201043%33.5%3.5%15.5%2%57.5%42.5%
31 July – 1 Aug 201044%39%2%10%4%53%47%
24–25 July 201043.5%35%2%11.5%6.5%55.5%44.5%
17–18 July 201044.5%35%4.5%10.5%4%56%44%
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan.

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References

  1. ALP leads coalition in biggest poll yet: SMH 18 August 2010
  2. Poll Bludger JWS p. 1 - Poll Bludger JWS p. 2
  3. 1 2 "Malcolm Turnbull's economic, ETS woes slash voter support for Liberals". The Australian. Archived from the original on 11 October 2009.

See also