2012 Japanese general election

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2012 Japanese general election
Flag of Japan.svg
  2009 16 December 2012 2014  

All 480 seats in the House of Representatives
241 seats needed for a majority
Turnout59.31% (Decrease2.svg9.88pp)
PartyLeader%Seats+/–
Liberal Democratic Shinzō Abe 27.62294+175
Restoration Shintaro Ishihara 20.3854New
Democratic Yoshihiko Noda 16.0057−251
Komeito Natsuo Yamaguchi 11.8331+10
Your Yoshimi Watanabe 8.7218+13
Communist Kazuo Shii 6.138−1
Tomorrow Yukiko Kada 5.699New
Social Democratic Mizuho Fukushima 2.362−5
New Party Daichi Muneo Suzuki 0.5810
People's New Tamisuke Watanuki 0.361−2
Independents 5−1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
2012 JAPAN GENERAL ELECTION, winner vote share.svg
Districts and PR districts shaded according to winners' vote strength.
Prime Minister beforePrime Minister after
Yoshihiko Noda
Democratic
Shinzo Abe
Liberal Democratic

General elections were held in Japan on 16 December 2012. Voters gave the Liberal Democratic Party a landslide victory, ejecting the Democratic Party from power after three years. It was the fourth worst defeat suffered by a ruling party in Japanese history.

Voting took place in all representatives' constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan.

In July 2012, it was reported that the deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada had approached the Liberal Democratic Party to sound them out about dissolving the House of Representatives and holding the election in January 2013. [1] An agreement was reached in August to dissolve the Diet and hold early elections "shortly" following the passage of a bill to raise the national consumption tax. [2] Some right-wing observers asserted that as the result of introducing the consumption tax to repay the Japanese public debt, [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] the DPJ lost around 75% of its pre-election seats. [8] [9]

Background

The LDP had governed Japan for all but three years since 1955. However, in the 2009 election, the LDP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in modern Japanese history. Due to the characteristics of the Japanese election system, DPJ candidates won 308 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2% of seats), enabling Yukio Hatoyama to become prime minister. Since then, Japan had had two other prime ministers, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda. On 16 November, Noda dissolved parliament, thus allowing for a new election in a month's time, citing the lack of funds to carry on governmental functions and the need for an emergency budget.

Dissatisfaction with the DPJ-led government and the former LDP-led government led to the formation of several grassroots movements, collectively known as the "third pole," to counter the two major parties. [10] The former Governor of Tokyo Shintarō Ishihara announced the renaming and reformation of the Sunrise Party on 14 November 2012; Ishihara co-lead the party with Takeo Hiranuma. [11] On 17 November 2012 Mayor of Osaka Tōru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Governor Shintarō Ishihara announced the merger of the Japan Restoration Party and the Sunrise Party as a third force to contend the 16 December 2012 general election. [12] It is Japan's first national political party that is based outside of Tokyo. [13]

On 23 November, Mayor of Nagoya Takashi Kawamura, former state minister Shizuka Kamei and former farm minister Masahiko Yamada joined forces together to launch Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party as another "third pole" national political party. [14] On 28 November, the Governor of Shiga Yukiko Kada in Ōtsu announced the establishment of an anti-nuclear and gender equality focused party known as the Tomorrow Party of Japan, becoming the second national party based outside of Tokyo. Concurrently, the president of DPJ splinter group People's Life First, Ichirō Ozawa, dissolved the party, merging it into the Tomorrow Party. Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party and Japan Future Party attempted to merge with the aim of further countering the major and pro-nuclear parties. [15] On 27 November Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party officially announced a merger with Tomorrow, with party co-leader Mashahiko Yamada saying, "We would also like to raise our hands in joining because our ways of thinking are the same." [16]

Opinion polls

Graph of poll results since 2009
Japanese political parties approval ratings (2009-).svg
  Democratic
  Liberal Democratic
  New Komeito
  Communist
  Social Democratic
  Your Party
  Others incl. NPN, PNP, NRP and SP
  No Party
Source: NHK
Graph of the current Cabinet Approval/Disapproval Ratings
Japanese cabinet approval ratings (2009-).svg

Party polling for the 180 proportional seats

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Undecided or declined
DPJ LDP JRP PLF

TPJ
NKP JCP YP SDP
Asahi Shimbun 15–16 November 201244%16%23%6%1%3%2%2%1%
Yomiuri Shimbun 16–17 November 201243%13%22%13%
Asahi Shimbun 17–18 November 201246%15%23%16%4%
Kyodo News 17–18 November 201243%10.8%23%
Yomiuri Shimbun 23–25 November 201210%25%14%2%6%2%
Kyodo News 24–25 November 201245%8.4%18.7%10.3%2%4%3%
Asahi Shimbun 24–25 November 201241%13%23%9%2%4%3%
Nikkei Business Daily 28 November 201213%23%15%5%4%
Kyodo News 1–2 December 20129.3%18.4%10.4%3.5%4.8%
Asahi Shimbun 1–2 December 201241%15%20%9%3%4%3%3%1%
Yomiuri Shimbun 30 Nov.-2 Dec 201213%19%13%5%5%
NHK 7–9 December 201210%21%11%
Yomiuri Shimbun 7–9 December 201212%29%11%3%
Asahi Shimbun 8–9 December 201243%14%22%8%2%5%4%2%
Kyodo News 12–13 December 201240%11%23%10%

PM polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Yoshihiko Noda-3.jpg Shinzo Abe 20060926 (cropped).jpg Ishihara Shintaro 1-1.jpg
Noda
DPJ
Abe
LDP
Ishihara
JRP
Kyodo News 3–4 November 201229.3%40%
Asahi Shimbun 15–16 November 201231%33%
Yomiuri Shimbun 16–17 November 201231%37%
Kyodo News 17–18 November 201232.1%35%
Yomiuri Shimbun 23–25 November 201219%29%22%
Kyodo News 24–25 November 201230%33.9%
Yomiuri Shimbun 30 Nov.-2 Dec 201221%28%
NHK 7–9 December 201219%28%
Kyodo News 8–9 December 201231%39%
Kyodo News 12–13 December 201229%34%

Pre-election composition

As of official announcement (kōji [=deadline for candidate registration, legal campaign start, start of early voting on following day]) on 4 December [17] – note that the government had lost its majority, already slim at the time of dissolution of the House of Representatives (16 November), due to further defections during the positioning of candidates for the election.

1391071233
LDP & NKPOther oppositionVIncumbent government (DPJ & PNP)

Results

Constituency Cartogram 46th Japanese General Election Cartogram.svg
Constituency Cartogram
46th House of Representatives of Japan seat composition.svg
PartyProportionalConstituencyTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Liberal Democratic Party 16,624,45727.625725,643,30943.01237294+175
Japan Restoration Party 12,262,22820.38406,942,35411.641454New
Democratic Party of Japan 9,628,65316.003013,598,77422.812757–251
New Komeito Party 7,116,47411.8322885,8811.49931+10
Your Party 5,245,5868.72142,807,2454.71418+13
Japanese Communist Party 3,689,1596.1384,700,2907.8808–1
Tomorrow Party of Japan 3,423,9155.6972,992,3665.0229New
Social Democratic Party 1,420,7902.361451,7620.7612–5
New Party Daichi 346,8480.581315,6040.53010
Happiness Realization Party 216,1500.36065,9830.11000
New Renaissance Party 134,7810.22000
People's New Party 70,8470.120117,1850.2011–2
New Party Nippon 62,6970.1100–1
21st Century Japan Restoration Party17,7110.0300New
Natural Party7,8310.0100New
Ainu Party7,4950.0100New
Euthanasia Party2,6030.0000New
World Economic Community Party 1,0110.00000
Independents1,006,4681.6955–1
Total60,179,888100.0018059,626,569100.003004800
Valid votes60,179,88897.6059,626,56896.69
Invalid/blank votes1,480,0812.402,040,9703.31
Total votes61,659,969100.0061,667,538100.00
Registered voters/turnout103,959,86659.31103,959,86659.32
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, CLEA

By prefecture

PrefectureTotal
seats
Seats won
LDP DPJ JRP NKP YP TPJ SDP PNP Ind.
Aichi 15132
Akita 33
Aomori 44
Chiba 13112
Ehime 44
Fukui 33
Fukuoka 11101
Fukushima 541
Gifu 55
Gunma 55
Hiroshima 761
Hokkaido 12111
Hyōgo 12822
Ibaraki 7511
Ishikawa 33
Iwate 4121
Kagawa 321
Kagoshima 541
Kanagawa 1814112
Kōchi 33
Kumamoto 541
Kyoto 642
Mie 532
Miyagi 651
Miyazaki 33
Nagano 532
Nagasaki 44
Nara 431
Niigata 66
Ōita 33
Okayama 541
Okinawa 431
Osaka 193124
Saga 33
Saitama 151311
Shiga 44
Shimane 22
Shizuoka 862
Tochigi 541
Tokushima 33
Tokyo 2521211
Tottori 22
Toyama 33
Wakayama 321
Yamagata 321
Yamaguchi 44
Yamanashi 3111
Total3002372714942115

By PR block

PR blockTotal
seats
Seats won
LDP JRP DPJ NKP YP JCP TPJ SDP NPD
Chūgoku 115222
Hokkaido 831211
Hokuriku–Shinetsu1143211
Kinki2971034221
Kyushu 2174331111
Northern Kanto 206433211
Shikoku 62211
Southern Kanto 226542311
Tohoku 145231111
Tokai217442211
Tokyo 175332211
Total18057403022148711

Aftermath

Shinzo Abe is elected Prime Minister by the Diet, 26 December 2012. Nei Ge Zong Li Da Chen noZhi Ming 2012.12.26 (cropped).jpg
Shinzo Abe is elected Prime Minister by the Diet, 26 December 2012.

As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 294 seats and their allies, the New Komeito Party, 31 seats, a coalition of the two parties would be able to form a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to overrule the House of Councillors. [18] [19] The significant swing back towards conservative politics was attributed to economic anxieties, including fear of falling behind China. [18] Despite this landslide victory, Shinzo Abe acknowledged that his party won mainly because of voter antipathy towards the Democratic Party and not due to a resurgence in popularity for the LDP. [20] [21]

The election was an unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party, which lost three-quarters [22] of its 230 seats in the lower house to finish with just 57. In addition, seven members of the Cabinet lost their seats, the most ever in an election. Naoto Kan, who preceded Noda as prime minister, lost his constituency as well. [23] Overall, this marked the worst performance by a ruling party in the post–World War II era. As a result, Yoshihiko Noda resigned from his post as party president. [22]

The Tomorrow Party of Japan, which formed shortly before the election, consisted mostly of incumbents defecting from the Democratic Party. Most of these incumbents were unseated, causing the party to lose 86% of its strength only weeks after forming. Both the Japan Restoration Party and Your Party emerged as viable players in the Diet, while the traditional left parties Social Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party continued to decline in strength and relevance.

The voter turnout of 59.3% was the lowest since World War II. [22]

Reactions and analysis

The Liberal Democratic Party had campaigned on a tough stance on the Senkaku Islands dispute, leading to speculation as to how the new government would deal with the issue. [19] Abe made his party's position clear immediately following the election, stating that "[their] objective is to stop the challenge" from China with regards to ownership of the islands. [24] The re-election of the liberal conservative LDP raised concern in foreign media that Japan's relations with its neighbours – China and South Korea – would become strained, given the past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by LDP prime ministers, the party's perceived de-emphasis of Japan's war crimes committed during World War II and their intention to amend the country's pacifist constitution to give more power to the Self-Defense Forces. [25] [26] [27] Abe was also in favor of retaining nuclear energy in the country. [18]

In response to the election, the Nikkei 225 Index increased by 1%, while the yen fell to ¥84.48 against the US dollar, the lowest rate in 20 months. [28] Furthermore, the yield on 20-year Japanese government bonds (JCBs) rose to 1.710% a day after the election. This marked its highest level in nearly eight months. [29]

United States President Barack Obama spoke to Abe via telephone to congratulate him on the results of the general election, and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral security cooperation as well as deepening economic ties. [30]

Voiding of election

On 25 March 2013, the Hiroshima High Court ruled the election unconstitutional and the results void due to "the disparity in the value of one vote", which was up to 2.43 time the maximum constitutionally allowed disparity in some districts. [31] [32] The decision is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court, [33] and, if upheld, new elections must be held. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that the electoral system was unconstitutional without invalidating election results. [33] Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said that government would give electoral reform new thought and examine the situation carefully in order to respond in the appropriate manner. [32]

See also

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