Electoral Calculus

Last updated

Electoral Calculus
Available inEnglish
OwnerMartin Baxter
URL electoralcalculus.co.uk
CommercialYes
RegistrationNo
Current statusOnline

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics.

Contents

Main features

The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. [2]

The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. [3]

From April 2019, the headline prediction covered the Brexit Party and Change UK – The Independent Group. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the 2019 general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant.

Methodology

The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. [4] It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues. [5]

The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. [6] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters. [7] The models are explained in detail on the web site. [6]

Predictions

Across the eight general elections from 1992 to 2019: [8]

Reception

It was listed by The Guardian in 2004 as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. [9] In 2012 it was described by PhD student Chris Prosser at the University of Oxford as "probably the leading vote/seat predictor on the internet". [10] Its detailed predictions for individual seats have been noted by Paul Evans on the localdemocracy.org.uk blog. [11] Academic Nick Anstead noted in his observations from a 2010 Personal Democracy Forum event, that Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole considered Electoral Calculus to be "massively improved" in comparison with the swingometer. [12]

With reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election, it was cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley [13] and Michael White [14] in The Guardian . John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. [15]

The founder of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, and its sole employee, Marwan Riach, have regularly appeared on UK and international media to offer polling expertise to their audience.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Warwick and Leamington (UK Parliament constituency)</span> British parliamentary constituency

Warwick and Leamington is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since the 2017 general election by Matt Western, of the Labour Party.

An electoral swing analysis shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system. A swing can be calculated for the electorate as a whole, for a given electoral district or for a particular demographic.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Manchester Withington (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1918 onwards

Manchester Withington is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2015 by Jeff Smith of Labour. Of the 30 seats with the highest percentage of winning majority in 2017, the seat ranks 25th with a 55.7% margin, and is the only one of the twenty nine of these seats won by the Labour Party in which the second-placed candidate was a Liberal Democrat, rather than Conservative. This is despite being a Conservative seat right up to 1987, then becoming relatively safely Labour, then Liberal Democrat from 2005 to 2015 before they lost on a large swing in 2015, after which Smith substantially increased his majority.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Torridge and West Devon (UK Parliament constituency)</span> UK Parliament constituency

Torridge and West Devon is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2005 by Geoffrey Cox, a Conservative.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Welwyn Hatfield (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1974 onwards

Welwyn Hatfield is a constituency in Hertfordshire represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2005 by Grant Shapps, a Conservative who currently serves as Secretary of State for Defence. He has previously held the posts of Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and Secretary of State for Transport

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Rochdale (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1832 onwards

Rochdale is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom by George Galloway. Galloway is the leader of the Workers Party of Britain, and was elected at the 2024 by-election. Rochdale has elected one Member of Parliament (MP) since its creation in 1832.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Redcar (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1974 onwards

Redcar is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2019 by Jacob Young, a Conservative.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Derby North (UK Parliament constituency)</span> UK Parliament constituency since 1950

Derby North is a constituency formed of part of the city of Derby, represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2019 by Amanda Solloway, a Conservative.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hornsey and Wood Green (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1983 onwards

Hornsey and Wood Green is a constituency in Greater London created in 1983 and represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2015 by Catherine West, of the Labour Party. To date it has drawn together for general elections parts of the London Borough of Haringey.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Barking (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1945 onwards

Barking is a constituency in Greater London represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament. Since its formation in 1945, it has consistently returned a member of the Labour Party as its Member of Parliament (MP). Since 1994, its MP has been Margaret Hodge.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sutton and Cheam (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1945 onwards

Sutton and Cheam is a constituency in Greater London represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2015 by Paul Scully, a Conservative.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kingswood (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1974 onwards

Kingswood is a constituency in South Gloucestershire. It is currently represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament by Damien Egan of the Labour Party since 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Harrow West (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1945 onwards

Harrow West is a constituency in Greater London created in 1945 and represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament. Until 1997, it only returned Conservative MPs; since then, it has elected the Labour Co-operative MP Gareth Thomas on a fluctuating majority. Since 2010, this has been bolstered by the loss of Pinner from the seat and the gain of a favourable ward for Labour from Harrow East.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hove (UK Parliament constituency)</span>

Hove is a borough constituency in East Sussex represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2015 by Labour's Peter Kyle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thurrock (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 1945 onwards

Thurrock is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Jackie Doyle-Price, a Conservative.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Washington and Sunderland West (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 2010 onwards

Washington and Sunderland West is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since its 2010 creation by Sharon Hodgson, a member of the Labour Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Taunton Deane (UK Parliament constituency)</span> Parliamentary constituency in the United Kingdom, 2010 onwards

Taunton Deane is a constituency in Somerset represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament by Rebecca Pow of the Conservative Party since 2015.

<i>FiveThirtyEight</i> American news website

538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. Founder Nate Silver left in April of 2023. On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages. The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday 7 May 2015 to elect 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons. It was the only general election held under the rules of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 and was the last general election to be held before the United Kingdom would vote to end its membership of the European Union (EU). Local elections took place in most areas of England on the same day.

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

References

  1. 1 2 "Electoral Calculus". Intute . Retrieved 17 October 2011. An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results.
  2. ↑ Ruppert, Evelyn (16 April 2010). "Data mobilisation and the UK 2010 Election". CReSC: The Social Life of Methods. Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change. Archived from the original on 10 September 2011. Retrieved 28 May 2012.
  3. ↑ "Scottish Government and Politics on the Internet". School of Politics, International Relations and Philosophy website. Keele University . Retrieved 6 February 2014.
  4. ↑ Young, Toby (7 May 2010). "Who predicted the result correctly?". The Daily Telegraph . London. Archived from the original on 8 May 2010. Retrieved 25 May 2012.
  5. ↑ "MP's on course to lose his seat". thisiskent.co.uk. 27 April 2012. Archived from the original on 5 May 2013. Retrieved 24 May 2012.
  6. 1 2 Baxter, Martin (8 July 2004). "Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 17 October 2011.
  7. ↑ Baxter, Martin (28 October 2007). "Strong Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. Retrieved 17 October 2011.
  8. ↑ Electoral Calculus https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/trackrecord.html
  9. ↑ "Cream of the crop". The Guardian. 16 December 2004. Retrieved 28 May 2012.
  10. ↑ Prosser, Chris (7 May 2012). "Predicting the next UK general election". Politics in Spires. Retrieved 25 May 2012.
  11. ↑ Evans, Paul (30 March 2010). "Election websites to watch". localdemocracy.org.uk. Archived from the original on 21 September 2014. Retrieved 25 May 2012.
  12. ↑ Anstead, Nick (15 May 2010). "General Election 2010 – Action Replay (Personal Democracy Forum Event at the Royal Society for the Arts)". nickanstead.com. Retrieved 25 May 2012.
  13. ↑ Rawnsley, Andrew (22 November 2009). "Why it's very likely the next parliament will be doubly hung". The Guardian . London. Retrieved 17 October 2011. The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.
  14. ↑ White, Michael (30 April 2010). "Tony Blair's back. But it's too late for Labour". The Guardian . London. Retrieved 17 October 2011. How is Cameron 'winning' when Tory share of the vote is – on current measure – about 1% to 1.5% up on 2005 (source Electoral Calculus)?
  15. ↑ Rentoul, John (17 October 2010). "John Rentoul: Clegg drives his voters away". The Independent . Retrieved 28 May 2012.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.