Monetary transmission mechanism

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The monetary transmission mechanism is the process by which asset prices and general economic conditions are affected as a result of monetary policy decisions. Such decisions are intended to influence the aggregate demand, interest rates, and amounts of money and credit to affect overall economic performance. The traditional monetary transmission mechanism occurs through interest rate channels, which affect interest rates, costs of borrowing, levels of physical investment, and aggregate demand. Additionally, frictions in the credit markets, known as the credit view, can affect aggregate demand. In short, the monetary transmission mechanism can be defined as the link between monetary policy and aggregate demand.

Contents

Traditional interest rate channels

An interest rate channel may be categorized as traditional, which means monetary policy affects real (rather than nominal) interest rates, which influence investment, spending on new housing, consumer spending, and aggregate demand. An easing of monetary policy in the traditional view leads to a decrease in real interest rates, which lowers the cost of borrowing, resulting in greater investment spending, involving an overall increase in aggregate demand. [1]

Credit view

In addition to the traditional interest rate channel, which focuses on the effects of interest rate changes, there are other methods through which monetary policy can influence economic outcomes and aggregate demand. These alternative channels are classified under the credit view, [2] which argues that financial frictions in the credit markets create additional channels that lead to changes in aggregate demand. These channels operate through effects on bank lending, as well as the effects on the balance sheet of a given firm or household. [2]

Monetary policy affects bank deposits, leading to changes in the amount of bank loans and investment in residential housing. [2]

Monetary policy affects stock prices, leading to moral hazard and adverse selection, which leads to changes in lending activity and investment [2]

Monetary policy leads to changes in nominal interest rates, which affects cash flow, leading to moral hazard, adverse selection, and changes in lending activity and investment [2]

Monetary policy can lead to unanticipated price level changes, resulting in moral hazard, adverse selection, and changes in lending activity and investment [2]

Monetary policy affects stock prices, leading to changes in financial wealth and the probability of financial distress, which affects residential housing and consumer spending [3]

Other asset price effects

Finally, other asset price effects have separate channels allowing monetary policy to influence aggregate demand:

Monetary policy affects real interest rates and the exchange rate, leading to changes in net exports [4]

Monetary policy affects stock prices, leading to changes in Tobin's q (the market value of firms divided by the replacement cost of capital) and investment [2]

Monetary policy affects stock prices, which affects financial wealth and consumption (consumer spending on nondurable goods and services) [5]

Stock prices respond more aggressively and asymmetrically to monetary policy under high uncertainty. The time-varying link between monetary policy and stock prices depends on uncertainty. [6]

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Inflation</span> Devaluation of currency over a period of time

In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using the consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fiscal policy</span> Use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a countrys economy

In economics and political science, fiscal policy is the use of government revenue collection and expenditure to influence a country's economy. The use of government revenue expenditures to influence macroeconomic variables developed in reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the previous laissez-faire approach to economic management became unworkable. Fiscal policy is based on the theories of the British economist John Maynard Keynes, whose Keynesian economics theorised that government changes in the levels of taxation and government spending influence aggregate demand and the level of economic activity. Fiscal and monetary policy are the key strategies used by a country's government and central bank to advance its economic objectives. The combination of these policies enables these authorities to target inflation and to increase employment. In modern economies, inflation is conventionally considered "healthy" in the range of 2%–3%. Additionally, it is designed to try to keep GDP growth at 2%–3% percent and the unemployment rate near the natural unemployment rate of 4%–5%. This implies that fiscal policy is used to stabilise the economy over the course of the business cycle.

An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed. The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency, and the length of time over which it is lent, deposited, or borrowed.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Monetary policy of the United States</span> Political Policy

The monetary policy of The United States is the set of policies which the Federal Reserve follows to achieve its twin objectives of high employment and stable inflation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Money supply</span> Total value of money available in an economy at a specific point in time

In macroeconomics, money supply refers to the total volume of money held by the public at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include currency in circulation and demand deposits. Money supply data is recorded and published, usually by the national statistical agency or the central bank of the country. Empirical money supply measures are usually named M1, M2, M3, etc., according to how wide a definition of money they embrace. The precise definitions vary from country to country, in part depending on national financial institutional traditions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Monetary policy</span> Policy of interest rates or money supply

Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the monetary authority of a nation to affect monetary and other financial conditions to accomplish broader objectives like high employment and price stability. Further purposes of a monetary policy may be to contribute to economic stability or to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies. Today most central banks in developed countries conduct their monetary policy within an inflation targeting framework, whereas the monetary policies of most developing countries' central banks target some kind of a fixed exchange rate system. A third monetary policy strategy, targeting the money supply, was widely followed during the 1980s, but has diminished in popularity since that, though it is still the official strategy in a number of emerging economies.

The quantity theory of money is a theory from monetary economics which states that the general price level of goods and services is directly proportional to the amount of money in circulation, and that the causality runs from money to prices. This implies that the theory potentially explains inflation. It originated in the 16th century and has been proclaimed the oldest surviving theory in economics.

In economics, crowding out is a phenomenon that occurs when increased government involvement in a sector of the market economy substantially affects the remainder of the market, either on the supply or demand side of the market.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Money creation</span> Process by which the money supply of an economic region is increased

Money creation, or money issuance, is the process by which the money supply of a country, or an economic or monetary region, is increased. In most modern economies, money is created by both central banks and commercial banks. Money issued by central banks is termed reserve deposits and is only available for use by central bank account holders, which are generally large commercial banks and foreign central banks. Central banks can increase the quantity of reserve deposits directly, by engaging in open market operations or quantitative easing. However, the majority of the money supply used by the public for conducting transactions is created by the commercial banking system in the form of bank deposits. Bank loans issued by commercial banks expand the quantity of bank deposits.

The real economy concerns the production, purchase and flow of goods and services within an economy. It is contrasted with the financial economy, which concerns the aspects of the economy that deal purely in transactions of money and other financial assets, which represent ownership or claims to ownership of real sector goods and services.

Modern monetary theory or modern money theory (MMT) is a heterodox macroeconomic theory that describes currency as a public monopoly and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires. According to MMT, governments do not need to worry about accumulating debt in and of itself since they create new money by using fiscal policy in order to pay interest. MMT argues that the primary risk once the economy reaches full employment is inflation, which acts as the only constraint on spending. MMT also argues that inflation can be addressed by increasing taxes across the economy to reduce the spending capacity of the private sector.

Credit rationing by definition is limiting the lenders of the supply of additional credit to borrowers who demand funds at a set quoted rate by the financial institution. It is an example of market failure, as the price mechanism fails to bring about equilibrium in the market. It should not be confused with cases where credit is simply "too expensive" for some borrowers, that is, situations where the interest rate is deemed too high. With credit rationing, the borrower would like to acquire the funds at the current rates, and the imperfection is the absence of supply from the financial institutions, despite willing borrowers. In other words, at the prevailing market interest rate, demand exceeds supply, but lenders are willing neither to lend enough additional funds to satisfy demand, nor to raise the interest rate they charge borrowers because they are already maximising profits, or are using a cautious approach to continuing to meet their capital reserve requirements.

Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply of a country. Depending on many factors, especially public expectations, the fundamental state and development of the economy, and the transmission mechanism, it is likely to result in price inflation, which is usually just called "inflation", which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services.

A flight-to-quality, or flight-to-safety, is a financial market phenomenon occurring when investors sell what they perceive to be higher-risk investments and purchase safer investments, such as gold and other precious metals. This is considered a sign of fear in the marketplace, as investors seek less risk in exchange for lower profits.

The interbank lending market is a market in which banks lend funds to one another for a specified term. Most interbank loans are for maturities of one week or less, the majority being overnight. Such loans are made at the interbank rate. A sharp decline in transaction volume in this market was a major contributing factor to the collapse of several financial institutions during the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lost Decades</span> Period of economic stagnation in Japan

The Lost Decades is a lengthy period of economic stagnation in Japan precipitated by the asset price bubble's collapse beginning in 1990. The singular term Lost Decade originally referred to the 1990s, but the 2000s and the 2010s have been included by commentators as the phenomenon continued.

The credit channel mechanism of monetary policy describes the theory that a central bank's policy changes affect the amount of credit that banks issue to firms and consumers for purchases, which in turn affects the real economy.

The asset price channel is the monetary transmission channel that is responsible for the distribution of the effects induced by monetary policy decisions made by the central bank of a country that affect the price of assets. These effects on the prices of assets will in turn affect the economy.

The interest rate channel is a mechanism of monetary policy, whereby a policy-induced change in the short-term nominal interest rate by the central bank affects the price level, and subsequently output and employment.

References

  1. Ireland, P.N. (2008). "Monetary Transmission Mechanism". In Blume, Lawrence; Durlauf, Steven (eds.). The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. London: Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 1–7. doi:10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2339-1. ISBN   978-1-349-95121-5.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mishkin, Frederic (2012). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. Prentice Hall. ISBN   9781408200728.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence J.; Eichenbaum, Martin (1992). "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism". American Economic Review. 82 (2): 346–353. JSTOR   2117426.
  4. Boivin, Jean; Kiley, Michael T.; Mishkin, Frederic S. (2010). "Chapter 8: How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?". In Friedman, Benjamin M.; Woodford, Michael (eds.). Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3 (1 ed.). Elsevier. pp. 369–422. doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00008-9. ISBN   978-0-444-53470-5.
  5. Kuttner, Kenneth N.; Mosser, Patricia C. (2002). "The monetary transmission mechanism: some answers and further questions". Economic Policy Review. 8. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: 15–26.
  6. Benchimol, Jonathan; Saadon, Yossi; Segev, Nimrod (2023). "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty". International Review of Financial Analysis. 89: 102783. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102783.

Further reading