2004 United States Senate election in Ohio

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2004 United States Senate election in Ohio
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  George Voinovich, official photo portrait, 2006 (1).jpg Eric Fingerhut 103nd Congress 1993 (1).jpg
Nominee George Voinovich Eric Fingerhut
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote3,464,6511,961,249
Percentage63.85%36.14%
2004 United States Senate election in Ohio results map by county.svg
2004 United States Senate election in Ohio results map by congressional District.svg
Voinovich:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fingerhut:     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

George Voinovich
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

George Voinovich
Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Ohio took place on November 2, 2004. It was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives and the presidential election. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich won re-election to a second term with the highest raw vote total in Ohio history. This remains the last Ohio statewide election to date in which a candidate won every county in the state. This was the first election since 1950 that an incumbent Republican Senator from Ohio was re-elected or won re-election for this seat.

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

George Voinovich faced only token opposition from John Mitchel, a former Air Force lieutenant colonel, a former Reform Party candidate for governor in 1998, an Independent candidate for U.S. House in 2000 and as a Republican in 2002, both times against congressman David Hobson. [1]

Results

Republican primary [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican George Voinovich (Incumbent) 640,082 76.61%
Republican John Mitchel195,47623.39%
Total votes835,558 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declined

The early story of the campaign surrounded speculation of whether Jerry Springer would enter the race. [4] Springer, a former mayor of Cincinnati, had previously considered a challenge to the state's other Senator Mike DeWine in 2000, but ultimately passed on it. [5] Among the steps Springer took, included filing papers to run [6] traveling across the state to meet voters, [7] and airing a nationwide 30 minute infomercial for the purpose of fundraising. [8] The infomercial would not be seen in Ohio due to equal time laws. Ultimately, Springer declined a return to public office, citing his inability to distance himself from his infamous talk show's reputation. [9] He also cited his show's contract as playing a role. [10] In all, Springer spent a little over $1 million of his own money on his exploratory campaign. [11]

Had he run, Springer would have faced obstacles, as polling showed that as much as 71% of voters polled held an unfavorable view of him. [12] That same poll also showed that in a prospective contest, Voinovich lead with 77% of the vote to Springer's 16%. [13] After his brief exploration, Springer hinted that in 2006, he would be interested in the open governorship and declined to rule out a Senate bid that year. [14] [10] Ultimately, he would pursue neither bid.

After Springer declined to enter, Fingerhut was seen as the favorite to win the nomination. [9] He only faced token opposition from Norbert Dennerll, a former City Councilman who served in the late 50's and early 60's. [1]

Results

Democratic primary [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Eric Fingerhut 672,989 70.79%
Democratic Norbert Dennerll277,72129.21%
Total votes950,710 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

A popular U.S. Senator, Voinovich was the heavy favorite to win the election virtually from the start. [13] He had over $9 million in the bank, while his opponent barely had $1.5 million. [16] Fingerhut tried to draw attention to his candidacy by walking over 300 miles across the state and meeting with voters. [17] However, he still faced long odds, with many Democratic officials ignoring his campaign and voters not believing in his chances. [18] [19]

Voinovich's biggest advantage was getting support from the most Democratic-leaning county in the state, Cuyahoga County, Ohio. Kerry carried it with almost 67% of the vote, by far his best performance in the state in 2004. It is the home of Cleveland and it is also most populous county in the state. Voinovich was a former mayor of Cleveland. In addition, he catered to Cleveland's large Jewish population by visiting Israel six times as a first-term U.S. Senator. He also consistently voted for aid to Israel through foreign appropriations bills. He's supported resolutions reaffirming Israel's right to self-defense and condemned Palestinian terrorist attacks. [20] In addition, Fingerhut's home base was in the Cleveland area, and therefore he had to cut in through the incumbent's home base in order to even make the election close.

In a September University of Cincinnati poll, the incumbent lead 64% to 34%. [21] In an October ABC News poll, Voinovich was winning 60% to 35%. He led across almost all demographic groups Only among Democrats, non-whites, liberals, and those who pick health care as #1 issue favor Fingerhut. The election coincided with the presidential election, where Ohio was a swing state. 27% of Voinovich's supporters preferred U.S. Senator John Kerry for president. [22]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Safe RNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		George
Voinovich (R)		Eric
Fingerhut (D)		Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA October 29–31, 2004813 (LV)± 3.5%61%33%5%

Results

2004 United States Senate election, Ohio [24]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican George Voinovich (Incumbent) 3,464,651 63.85%
Democratic Eric Fingerhut 1,961,24936.14%
Independent Helen Meyers2960.01%
Turnout 5,426,196100.00%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Voinovich won 17 of 18 congressional districts, including 6 that have Democratic congressman and 5 that voted for John Kerry in the presidential race. [25]

DistrictVoinovichFingerhutRepresentative
1st 60%40% Steve Chabot
2nd 72%28% Rob Portman
Jean Schmidt
3rd 66%34% Mike Turner
4th 73%27% Mike Oxley
5th 72%28% Paul Gillmor
6th 62%38% Ted Strickland
7th 69%31% David Hobson
8th 73%27% John Boehner
9th 58%42% Marcy Kaptur
10th 61%39% Dennis Kucinich
11th 39%61% Stephanie Tubbs Jones
12th 65%35% Pat Tiberi
13th 59%41% Sherrod Brown
14th 66%34% Steven LaTourette
15th 63%37% Deborah Pryce
16th 67%33% Ralph Regula
17th 51%49% Tim Ryan
18th 68%32% Bob Ney

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

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References

  1. 1 2 Drew, James (February 29, 2004). Underdogs challenge 2 veteran candidates. Toledo Blade. pp. B2.
  2. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, 2004 United States Senate Republican primary election results
  3. ↑ CBS News/AP (July 14, 2003). "Jerry Springer Nixes Senate Run - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Archived from the original on November 23, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  4. ↑ AP (July 11, 2003). "Jerry Springer Eyes U.S. Senate - CBS News". www.cbsnews.com. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  5. ↑ Associated Press (August 14, 1999). "National News Briefs; Springer Won't Seek Senate Seat in Ohio (Published 1999)". Archived from the original on September 12, 2017. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  6. ↑ Susman, Gary (July 11, 2003). "Jerry Springer will file papers for Senate run". EW.com. Archived from the original on April 12, 2021. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  7. ↑ McCarthy, John (August 1, 2003). "Springer could not separate from show". Cleveland 19. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  8. ↑ Associated Press (July 15, 2003). Jerry Springer takes steps for Senate Race. Reading Eagle. pp. A10.
  9. 1 2 Whittington, Lauren W. (August 8, 2003). "The Other Candidate". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  10. 1 2 Drew, James (August 7, 2003). Springer won't seek U.S. Senate nomination. Toledo Blade. pp. 4A.
  11. ↑ Whittington, Lauren W. (October 17, 2003). "Springer Spent $1.1M Not to Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  12. ↑ McCarthy, John (May 11, 2003). "Can Jerry Springer get your vote?". Morning Journal. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  13. 1 2 Skolnick, David (March 11, 2003). In poll, Voinovich tops Fingerhut and TV's Springer. The Vindicator. pp. B3.
  14. ↑ Noah, Timothy (July 29, 2004). "Rehabilitation Watch". Slate. ISSN   1091-2339. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  15. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, 2004 United States Senate Democratic primary election results
  16. ↑ "Archives. Product site". Newsbank. Archived from the original on June 9, 2011. Retrieved May 12, 2010.
  17. ↑ Cleveland 19 (August 30, 2004). "Candidate for U.S. Senate to walk 310 miles in Ohioans shoes". Cleveland 19. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  18. ↑ "Several Mahoning Valley Democratic officials are simply avoiding their party's nominee for the U.S. Senate". The Vindicator Archives. April 2, 2004. Archived from the original on August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  19. ↑ Skolnick, David (October 29, 2003). Fingerhut sets sights on Voinovich's seat. The Vindicator. pp. B4.
  20. ↑ HighBeam
  21. ↑ "Archives. DDNB Theme". Newsbank. Archived from the original on June 9, 2011. Retrieved May 12, 2010.
  22. ↑ "Poll: Advantage Kerry in Ohio Race". ABC News .
  23. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  24. ↑ Ohio Secretary of State, 2004 United States Senate general election results
  25. ↑ "2000 elections results". Frank LaRose. April 2022.
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