2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky

Last updated

2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  1998 November 2, 2004 2010  →
  Jim Bunning official photo.jpg Daniel Mongiardo by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Jim Bunning Daniel Mongiardo
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote873,507850,855
Percentage50.66%49.34%
2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
County results
Bunning:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Mongiardo:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Jim Bunning
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jim Bunning
Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.

Contents

Democratic primary

Background

Former Governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator from Hazard, Kentucky.

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo 142,162 64.92%
Democratic David L. Williams76,80735.08%
Total votes218,969 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Bunning (incumbent) 96,545 84.00%
Republican Barry Metcalf18,39516.00%
Total votes114,940 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife. [3] [4]

Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.

The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5] Lean RNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Jim
Bunning (R)		Daniel
Mongiardo (D)		Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA October 28–30, 2004631 (LV)± 4.0%51%42%6%

Results

2004 Kentucky U.S. Senator general election [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jim Bunning (incumbent) 873,507 50.66% +0.91%
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo 850,85549.34%+0.18%
Turnout 1,724,362
Republican hold Swing

By county

CountyBunningVotesMongiardoVotes
Adair 69%4,85731%2,151
Allen 70%4,64030%2,030
Anderson 51%4,67649%4,540
Ballard 43%1,75257%2,331
Barren 58%8,74942%6,459
Bath 37%1,67363%2,910
Bell 44%4,44256%5,646
Boone 71%31,16229%12,543
Bourbon 46%3,61454%4,250
Boyd 49%10,18151%10,713
Boyle 52%6,17948%5,806
Bracken 66%2,24934%1,183
Breathitt 28%1,60772%4,201
Breckinridge 57%4,63343%3,550
Bullitt 57%15,67543%11,913
Butler 70%3,66530%1,601
Caldwell 50%3,02550%3,034
Calloway 51%7,45649%7,063
Campbell 64%24,60336%14,079
Carlisle 48%1,32752%1,412
Carroll 48%1,78852%1,971
Carter 45%4,79455%5,754
Casey 75%4,48325%1,476
Christian 63%12,33137%7,304
Clark 48%7,04752%7,559
Clay 62%4,33638%2,643
Clinton 77%3,09423%937
Crittenden 55%2,21445%1,813
Cumberland 73%2,10327%782
Daviess 51%20,14849%19,739
Edmonson 62%3,16538%1,942
Elliott 28%80172%2,025
Estill 55%2,89245%2,414
Fayette 41%50,20959%70,798
Fleming 52%3,08048%2,815
Floyd 29%5,01571%12,092
Franklin 34%7,99866%15,324
Fulton 46%1,23754%1,426
Gallatin 59%1,73641%1,184
Garrard 60%3,76740%2,556
Grant 65%5,49735%3,007
Graves 48%7,44852%8,036
Grayson 62%5,89438%3,618
Green 68%3,32432%1,556
Greenup 50%7,80450%7,874
Hancock 48%1,83452%2,010
Hardin 57%19,91643%14,910
Harlan 31%3,34069%7,265
Harrison 50%3,73850%3,702
Hart 56%3,51844%2,785
Henderson 47%8,41953%9,490
Henry 52%3,26648%3,024
Hickman 49%1,09351%1,159
Hopkins 56%10,16144%7,930
Jackson 78%3,75522%1,070
Jefferson 40%134,69960%198,541
Jessamine 56%10,00244%7,730
Johnson 59%5,24241%3,711
Kenton 65%42,15835%22,759
Knott 19%1,34581%5,811
Knox 59%6,68541%4,591
LaRue 60%3,42940%2,241
Laurel 67%14,42733%7,014
Lawrence 54%3,32246%2,790
Lee 59%1,60641%1,126
Leslie 51%2,43849%2,339
Letcher 32%2,75168%5,884
Lewis 70%3,56230%1,509
Lincoln 57%4,87043%3,695
Livingston 45%2,02555%2,520
Logan 59%5,84741%4,099
Lyon 45%1,68055%2,082
Madison 50%14,74350%14,790
Magoffin 43%2,10057%2,816
Marion 41%2,88159%4,112
Marshall 48%7,19152%7,937
Martin 65%2,74435%1,497
Mason 59%3,88441%2,748
McCracken 52%14,93448%13,940
McCreary 71%3,60329%1,501
McLean 49%2,07851%2,179
Meade 53%5,57447%5,000
Menifee 39%94661%1,484
Mercer 53%5,01947%4,534
Metcalfe 58%2,26042%1,608
Monroe 77%3,94023%1,156
Montgomery 43%4,13057%5,558
Morgan 39%1,80061%2,758
Muhlenberg 44%5,60456%7,178
Nelson 48%7,75452%8,300
Nicholas 43%1,23657%1,638
Ohio 56%5,37144%4,202
Oldham 59%15,75141%10,731
Owen 58%2,63742%1,909
Owsley 63%1,14237%660
Pendleton 65%3,82435%2,042
Perry 23%2,62077%8,659
Pike 39%9,67261%15,293
Powell 41%1,96159%2,806
Pulaski 67%16,05333%7,848
Robertson 54%55946%468
Rockcastle 69%3,95631%1,812
Rowan 40%3,38860%5,032
Russell 69%5,09231%2,242
Scott 49%8,12651%8,364
Shelby 54%8,54446%7,269
Simpson 56%3,66544%2,938
Spencer 57%3,79943%2,821
Taylor 63%6,11937%3,643
Todd 63%2,69637%1,550
Trigg 58%3,35442%2,457
Trimble 50%1,86550%1,852
Union 49%2,79151%2,880
Warren 56%21,25844%16,457
Washington 56%2,76144%2,146
Wayne 60%4,21440%2,783
Webster 48%2,49052%2,738
Whitley 64%8,08236%4,620
Wolfe 33%91167%1,856
Woodford 44%4,88756%6,196

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jim Bunning</span> American baseball player and politician (1931-2017)

James Paul David Bunning was an American professional baseball pitcher and politician who represented Kentucky in both chambers of the United States Congress. He was the sole Major League Baseball athlete to have been elected to both the United States Senate and the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 United States Senate elections</span>

The 2004 United States Senate elections were held on November 2, 2004, with all Class 3 Senate seats being contested. They coincided with the re-election of George W. Bush as president and the United States House elections, as well as many state and local elections. Senators who were elected in 1998, known as Senate Class 3, were seeking re-election or retiring in 2004.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2002 United States Senate elections</span>

The 2002 United States Senate elections featured a series of fiercely contested elections that resulted in a victory for the Republican Party, which gained two seats and thus a narrow majority from the Democratic Party in the United States Senate. The Senate seats up for election, known as class 2 Senate seats, were last up for regular election in 1996. The election cycle was held on November 5, 2002, almost fourteen months after the September 11, 2001 attacks.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Daniel Mongiardo</span> American physician and politician

Frank Daniel Mongiardo is an American physician and politician from the Commonwealth of Kentucky. Mongiardo is a Democrat and was the 54th lieutenant governor of Kentucky from 2007 until 2011. He was a member of the Kentucky State Senate from 2001 to 2007. He also ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, narrowly losing in the general election to Jim Bunning and again in 2010, losing in the primary election to Jack Conway.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1998 United States Senate elections</span>

The 1998 United States Senate elections were held on November 3, with the 34 seats of Class 3 contested in regular elections. This was seen as an even contest between the Republican Party and Democratic Party. While the Democrats had to defend more seats up for election, Republican attacks on the morality of President Bill Clinton failed to connect with voters and anticipated Republican gains did not materialize. The Republicans picked up open seats in Ohio and Kentucky and narrowly defeated Democratic incumbent Carol Moseley Braun, but these were cancelled out by the Democrats' gain of an open seat in Indiana and defeats of Republican Senators Al D'Amato and Lauch Faircloth. The balance of the Senate remained unchanged at 55–45 in favor of the Republicans.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1990 United States Senate elections</span>

The 1990 United States Senate elections were held on Tuesday, November 6, 1990, with the 33 seats of Class 2 contested in regular elections. Special elections were also held to fill vacancies. The Democratic Party increased its majority with a net gain of one seat from the Republican Party. The election cycle took place in the middle of President George H. W. Bush's term, and, as with most other midterm elections, the party not holding the presidency gained seats in Congress. Until 2022, this had been the only election cycle where only one U.S. Senate seat flipped parties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1956 United States Senate elections</span>

The 1956 United States Senate elections were elections for the United States Senate that coincided with the re-election of President Dwight D. Eisenhower. The 32 seats of Class 3 were contested in regular elections, and three special elections were held to fill vacancies. Although Democrats gained two seats in regular elections, the Republicans gained two seats in special elections, leaving the party balance of the chamber unchanged.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jack Conway (politician)</span> American politician from Kentucky

John William Conway is an American lawyer and politician from the Commonwealth of Kentucky. A member of the Democratic Party, Conway served as the 49th attorney general of Kentucky from January 7, 2008, to January 4, 2016. Prior to his election as attorney general, he was the nominee for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in the 2002 elections, narrowly losing to Republican incumbent Anne Northup.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky</span> Election in Kentucky

The 2004 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose eight representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 United States Senate election in Tennessee</span> Election of US Senator Lamar Alexander

The 2008 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 4, 2008, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from the State of Tennessee. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander won re-election to a second term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the concurrent presidential election, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina</span> Election

The 2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings retired, and Republican U.S. Representative Jim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879, and the first Republican to ever be popularly elected to the seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania</span> Class III U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania

The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of 2024, this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia. Specter later lost renomination in 2010 as a Democrat, having joined the party in April 2009.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii</span>

The 2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on September 18, 2010. Incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye, also the President pro tempore, secured the Democratic nomination with over 88 percent of the vote over his sole challenger, businessman Andy Woerner, while former state legislator Campbell Cavasso won the Republican nomination with two-thirds of the primary vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1998 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 1998 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held November 3, 1998. It was concurrent with elections to the United States House of Representatives. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Wendell Ford decided to retire, instead of seeking a fifth term. Republican U.S. Representative Jim Bunning narrowly won the open seat, defeating Democratic U.S. Representative Scotty Baesler. This was the first open Senate seat since 1972. By a margin of 0.59%, this election was the second-closest race of the 1998 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Nevada. Jim Bunning's swearing-in marked the first time since 1973 that Republicans held both United States Senate seats from Kentucky. This was the first open-seat United States Senate election in Kentucky since 1972 and the first open-seat United States Senate election in Kentucky for this seat since 1968.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries for each respective party were held on May 18, 2010. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Republican nominee Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Congressman Ron Paul, won the open seat against Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election</span> Election for the governorship of the U.S. state of Kentucky

The 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2011, to elect the governor of Kentucky and the lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear won re-election, defeating Republican challenger David L. Williams, then the president of the state senate, and Gatewood Galbraith, an independent candidate. Statewide turnout in this election was 28%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 Kentucky elections</span>

Kentucky state elections in 2018 were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, with the primary elections being held on May 22, 2018. These midterm elections occurred during the presidency of Republican Donald Trump and the governorship of Republican Matt Bevin, alongside other elections in the United States. All six of Kentucky's seats in the United States House of Representatives, nineteen of the 38 seats in the Kentucky State Senate, all 100 seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives, and one of the seven seats on the Kentucky Supreme Court were contested. Numerous county and local elections were also contested within the state.

References

  1. ↑ "Mongiardo Campaign Not Satisfied With Bunning Apology - wave3.com-Louisville News, Weather & Sports". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
  2. 1 2 "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 20, 2011. Retrieved April 17, 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ↑ "Bunning apologizes for Saddam comparison". USA Today . AP. April 1, 2004. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
  4. ↑ Paul Farhi (October 15, 2004). "Bunning's Wild Pitches Tighten Kentucky Senate Race". The Washington Post . pp. A06. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
  5. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  6. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 20, 2010. Retrieved May 12, 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
Official campaign websites (Archived)
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.