Next Australian federal election

Last updated

Next Australian federal election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
←  2022 On or before 24 May 2025 (half-Senate)
On or before 27 September 2025 (House of Representatives)
All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Opinion polls
 
Anthony Albanese portrait (cropped).jpg
Peter Dutton May 2018.jpg
Adam-Bandt-profile-2021 (Cropped).png
Leader Anthony Albanese Peter Dutton Adam Bandt
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 30 May 2019 (2019-05-30) 30 May 2022 (2022-05-30) 4 February 2020 (2020-02-04)
Leader's seat Grayndler (NSW) Dickson (Qld) Melbourne (Vic)
Last election77 seats58 seats4 seats
Current seats78 seats [lower-alpha 1] 55 seats [lower-alpha 2] 4 seats
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 21Increase2.svg 72
 
KAP
CA
IND
LeaderN/AN/AN/A
Party Katter's Australian Centre Alliance Independents
Leader sinceN/AN/AN/A
Leader's seatN/AN/AN/A
Last election1 seat1 seat10 seats
Current seats1 seat1 seat12 seats
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 75Increase2.svg 75N/A
Incumbent Prime Minister

Anthony Albanese
Labor



The next Australian federal election will be held on or before 27 September 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.

Contents

Background

Previous election

At the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority. The Liberal–National Coalition that had previously governed won only 58 seats and went into opposition. Meanwhile, the crossbench, made up of other parties and independents, expanded to 16 seats; four held by the Greens, one each by Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party and the remaining 10 by independents. [1]

In the Senate, Labor made no gains and remained steady at 26 seats overall, whilst the Coalition lost some seats and retained only 32 seats. The Greens made gains and increased their share of seats to 12. One Nation also remained steady at 2 seats, Centre Alliance and Rex Patrick Team each lost their sole Senate seat, while the Jacqui Lambie Network gained a second seat. David Pocock was also elected as an independent Senator, while the United Australia Party also gained a Senate seat. This meant Labor required 13 additional votes to pass legislation. [2]

Composition of parliament

The 47th Parliament opened on 26 July 2022. The Liberal Party entered the parliament with a new leader, with former defence and home affairs minister Peter Dutton replacing the outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison. [3]

On 23 December 2022, Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee left the party and became an Independent, following the party's decision to publicly oppose an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. This meant that the Crossbench increased to 17 seats with the Coalition decreasing to 57 seats. [4]

On 6 February 2023, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe resigned from the party to sit as an Independent.

On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge. The result was considered a massive upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election. [5] As a result, Labor increased their number of seats in the House of Representatives to 78, while the Coalition decreased to 56.

In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast. The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged. Also in May 2023, Dai Le, the independent member for the seat of Fowler in Western Sydney, formed her own political party, the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network, alongside Frank Carbone, the Mayor of Fairfield. The party will be primarily based in Western Sydney. [6]

On 15 June 2023, Liberal Party Senator David Van was expelled from the party following sexual misconduct allegations by former LNP Senator Amanda Stoker and Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, continuing his term as an Independent.

On 14 November 2023, following a party preselection defeat, Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent left the party to sit on the crossbench. [7]

On 4 December 2023, Labor Party MP Peta Murphy died of cancer, leaving Labor with 77 seats.

On 28 February 2024, former Prime Minister and Liberal MP Scott Morrison left parliament.

On 1 March 2024, Labor Senator Linda White died.

On 2 March 2024, Labor Party candidate Jodie Belyea retained the seat of Dunkley in the 2024 Dunkley by-election.

On 28 March 2024, Senator Tammy Tyrrell quit the Jacqui Lambie Network to sit as an Independent.

On 13 April 2024, Liberal Party candidate Simon Kennedy retained the seat of Cook in the 2024 Cook by-election.

Electoral system

Members of the House of Representatives are elected by instant-runoff voting, which in Australia is known as full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member.

Senators are elected by single transferable vote and proportional representation. In states senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts.

Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres. [8] [9]

Current standings

Parties are listed according their vote share at the last federal election

Affiliation House Senate
Results of the
2022 election 		As of
3 December 2023		ChangeResults of the
2022 election 		As of
28 March 2024		Change
Labor 7778Increase2.svg 12626Steady2.svg 0
Coalition 5855Decrease2.svg 33231Decrease2.svg 1
The Greens 44Steady2.svg 01211Decrease2.svg 1
One Nation 00Steady2.svg 022Steady2.svg 0
United Australia 00Steady2.svg 011Steady2.svg 0
Katter's Australian 11Steady2.svg 000Steady2.svg 0
Centre Alliance 11Steady2.svg 000Steady2.svg 0
Lambie Network 00Steady2.svg 021Decrease2.svg 1
Independents 1012Increase2.svg 214Increase2.svg 3
Total seats15176

State of electorates

Redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

The apportionment determination was made in July 2023 based on the population figures for December 2022. The determination resulted in a reduction of one seat in New South Wales to 46, a reduction of one seat in Victoria to 38 and an increase of one seat in Western Australia to 16. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives will decrease from 151 to 150 at the next federal election. [10]

Voter registration

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election. [11] Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18, [12] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship. [13]

Election date

Election typeEarliest dateLatest date
Double dissolution
(requires trigger)		29 March 2025

Simultaneous half-Senate and House of Representatives

3 August 202424 May 2025
Half-Senate
House of Representatives27 September 2025

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections, [14] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2024. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 3 August 2024. [15] The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2025. The previous election's writs were returned on 24 June 2022, 34 days after the 2022 federal election. [16] Using this time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 24 May 2025.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives. [17] That means that any double dissolution of the 47th Parliament would have had to be granted by 25 January 2025. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 29 March 2025. [15] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include: [18] [19]

Retiring members

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Opinion polling

Primary vote

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - primary.svg
Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election

Two-party preferred

Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election Australian federal election polling - 48th parliament - two party preferred.svg
Local regression graph of polls conducted since the 2022 election

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Labor gained the seat of Aston from the Liberals at a by-election in 2023.
  2. ↑ In 2022, Andrew Gee (MP for Calare) left the National Party. In 2023, the Liberal Party lost the seat of Aston to Labor at a by-election. In November 2023, Russell Broadbent (MP for Monash) left the Liberal Party following his preselection loss.

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References

  1. ↑ "Australian Federal Election 2022 Live Results". ABC News. Archived from the original on 21 May 2022. Retrieved 2 June 2022.
  2. ↑ "Senate Results". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 November 2023. Retrieved 22 June 2022.
  3. ↑ Hitch, Georgia (30 May 2022). "Peter Dutton elected new Liberal Party leader, Sussan Ley becomes deputy leader". ABC News . Archived from the original on 30 May 2022. Retrieved 30 May 2022.
  4. ↑ Paul Karp (23 December 2022). "Nationals MP Andrew Gee quits party citing its opposition to Indigenous voice". The Guardian . Archived from the original on 4 April 2023. Retrieved 23 December 2022.
  5. ↑ "Labor snatches historic victory in Aston by-election in Melbourne's outer east". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 April 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  6. ↑ "Independent MP Dai le looks to spin success in western Sydney into new political movement | Sydney | the Guardian". Archived from the original on 18 May 2023. Retrieved 18 May 2023.
  7. ↑ "Outspoken backbencher Russell Broadbent quits Liberal Party after preselection loss". ABC News. 14 November 2023. Archived from the original on 14 November 2023. Retrieved 14 November 2023.
  8. ↑ "House of Representatives count". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 August 2022.
  9. ↑ "The Senate counting process". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 August 2022.
  10. ↑ "House of Representatives to return to 150 members". Australian Electoral Commission. 27 July 2023. Archived from the original on 20 October 2023. Retrieved 18 October 2023.
  11. ↑ "Section 155: Date for close of Rolls". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 . Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 31 July 2017. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  12. ↑ "Enrol to vote". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 1 October 2019. Retrieved 23 April 2021.
  13. ↑ Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, s. 99A.
  14. 1 2 "Section 13: Rotation of Senators". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 17 April 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  15. 1 2 Lundie, Rob; Schatz, Laura; Muller, Damon (13 January 2020). "'So when is the next election?': Australian elections timetable as at January 2020". Parliamentary Library of Australia, Parliament of Australia. Archived from the original on 29 March 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  16. ↑ "AEC returns writs for 2022 federal election". Australian Electoral Commission. 24 June 2022. Archived from the original on 3 July 2022. Retrieved 26 July 2022.
  17. ↑ "Section 57: Disagreement between the Houses". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 17 April 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  18. ↑ Lundie, Rob (25 June 2009). "Australian elections timetable". Parliamentary Library of Australia, Parliament of Australia. Archived from the original on 8 January 2011.
  19. ↑ Riga, Jessica (10 April 2022). "Prime Minister Scott Morrison announces May 21 election". ABC. Archived from the original on 9 April 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  20. ↑ "Section 12: Issue of writs". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 29 February 2020. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  21. ↑ "Section 28: Duration of House of Representatives". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 18 August 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  22. ↑ "Section 32: Writs for general election". Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900. Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 18 August 2021. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  23. ↑ "Section 156: Date of nomination". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 . Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  24. ↑ "Section 157: Date of polling". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 . Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 31 July 2016. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
  25. ↑ "Section 158: Polling to be on a Saturday". Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 . Australasian Legal Information Institute (AustLII). Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 2 April 2021.
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  27. ↑ McHugh, Finn (18 April 2023). "Karen Andrews the latest frontbench resignation as Peter Dutton announces reshuffle". SBS News . Special Broadcasting Service. Archived from the original on 17 April 2023. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
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  32. ↑ Sakkal, Paul (7 July 2023). "Anti-vax Coalition MP Gerard Rennick dumped". The Sydney Morning Herald. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  33. ↑ "Liberal senator Linda Reynolds to retire from politics". SBS News. 12 February 2023. Archived from the original on 26 March 2024. Retrieved 12 February 2023.
  34. ↑ Hore, Allison (25 March 2024). "Long-serving MP announces he will retire". Northern Daily Leader . Australian Community Media. Archived from the original on 25 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
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