Meteorological history of Hurricane Patricia

Last updated

With maximum sustained winds of 215 mph (345 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg), Hurricane Patricia is the second-most intense tropical cyclone ever observed, just shy of Typhoon Tip in 1979 which had a minimum pressure of 870 mbar (hPa; 25.69 inHg). It is also the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. [2] It exceeded the previous sustained wind record of 190 mph (305 km/h) set by Hurricane Allen in 1980 and the pressure record of 882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg) set by Hurricane Wilma in 2005, both in the Atlantic basin. [40] In the Eastern Pacific basin, north of the equator and east of the International Date Line, the previous basin record-holder was Hurricane Linda in 1997 with winds of 185 mph (300 km/h) and a pressure of 902 mbar (hPa; 26.64 inHg). [23] Reconnaissance also found a pressure gradient of 24 mbar (hPa; 0.709 inHg) per nautical mile early on October 23, among the steepest gradients ever observed in a tropical cyclone. [2]

Comparison of Dvorak-enhanced (BD curve) infrared imagery of Hurricanes Linda (left) and Patricia (right). The "cold dark gray" ring around Patricia's eye represents cloud tops of -81 degC (-114 degF) or colder, more intense than the "cold medium gray" ring surrounding Linda's eye. Hurricanes Linda and Patricia Dvorak comparison.png
Comparison of Dvorak-enhanced (BD curve) infrared imagery of Hurricanes Linda (left) and Patricia (right). The "cold dark gray" ring around Patricia's eye represents cloud tops of −81 °C (−114 °F) or colder, more intense than the "cold medium gray" ring surrounding Linda's eye.

On a global scale, Patricia's one-minute maximum sustained winds rank as the highest ever reliably observed or estimated globally in a tropical cyclone, surpassing Typhoon Haiyan of 2013, although the intensity of Haiyan was only estimated via satellite imagery (T8.0, the highest rating on the Dvorak scale). Since no aircraft reconnaissance was available for Haiyan, the record set by Patricia is uncertain and comparing the intensities of the two storms is problematic. [42] According to the World Meteorological Organization, Typhoon Nancy of 1961 also produced 215 mph (345 km/h) sustained winds; however, it is widely accepted that Western Pacific reconnaissance during the 1940s to 1960s overestimated cyclone intensity and Nancy's record is considered questionable. [43] [44] The most powerful wind gust produced by a tropical cyclone, as well as the highest non-tornadic winds ever recorded, is still retained by Cyclone Olivia in 1996: 253 mph (407 km/h) was observed on Barrow Island, Western Australia. [45]

The magnitude of Patricia's rapid intensification is among the fastest ever observed. In a 24-hour period, 06:00–06:00 UTC October 22–23, its maximum sustained winds increased from 85 mph (140 km/h) to 205 mph (335 km/h). This represents a record increase of 120 mph (195 km/h). During the same period, Patricia's central pressure fell by 95 mbar (hPa; 2.81 inHg). [2] This fell just short of the world-record intensification set by Typhoon Forrest in 1983, which featured a pressure drop of 100 mbar (hPa; 2.953 inHg) in just under 24 hours. [46] With a pressure of 932 mbar (hPa; 27.52 inHg), Patricia is the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record. The previous record was 941 mbar (hPa; 27.79 inHg) set by Hurricane Odile in 2014. However, this was broken by Hurricane Otis's 929 mbar (hPa; 27.43 inHg). Similarly, the hurricane featured the fastest weakening while still over water in NHC's area of responsibility, with a pressure rise of 54 mbar (hPa; 1.59 inHg) in the five hours before it made landfall. Furthermore, a dropsonde observed a 700 mbar height temperature of 32.2 °C (90.0 °F) in the eye of Patricia. This is one of the highest temperatures ever observed in a tropical cyclone's eye worldwide. [2]

See also

Other record-strength tropical cyclones:

  • Hurricane Linda in 1997  – Previous record intensity in eastern Pacific basin, during a similarly strong El Niño event
  • Typhoon Megi in 2010  – Research reconnaissance observed similarly intense sustained winds
  • Typhoon Goni in 2020  – Strongest landfalling tropical cyclone by 1-minute sustained winds
  • Typhoon Nancy in 1961  – Tied with Patricia for the highest winds observed in a tropical cyclone, considered unreliable
  • Typhoon Tip in 1979  – Most intense tropical cyclone recorded in terms of pressure
  • Hurricane Wilma in 2005  – Previous record low central pressure in the Western Hemisphere, still record low for the Atlantic
  • Hurricane Allen in 1980  – Previous record high sustained winds in the Western Hemisphere, still record high for the Atlantic
  • Typhoon Forrest in 1983  – Record-fastest intensification of any tropical cyclone; underwent a 100 mbar (hPa; 2.953 inHg) pressure drop in just under 24 hours

Notes

  1. ↑ These sea surface temperatures were at record levels for mid-October in the region and were largely undisturbed since Hurricane Carlos in June. [2]
  2. ↑ Post-storm reanalysis concluded that Patricia's peak intensity occurred between the reconnaissance flights, and thus the actual minimum pressure at peak intensity was estimated at 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg). However, this measured value of 879 mbar (hPa; 25.96 inHg)—extrapolated from a direct observation of 883 mbar (hPa; 26.07 inHg) with surface winds of 52 mph (84 km/h)—remains the lowest directly-measured central pressure in a Western Hemisphere tropical cyclone. [2]
  3. ↑ The maximum SFMR winds for the 06:00 UTC mission were operationally withheld for quality assurance and later determined to be accurate. [2]
  4. ↑ This pressure value was extrapolated from an observation of 885 mbar (hPa; 26.13 inHg) with surface winds of 66 mph (106 km/h). [2]
  5. ↑ The landfall pressure is based upon several observations in the hurricane's eye and has an error margin of ± 2–3 mbar (hPa; 0.06–0.09 inHg). [2]

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References

  1. ↑ "World Meteorological Organization retires storm names Erika, Joaquin and Patricia" (Press release). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. April 25, 2016. Archived from the original on June 1, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Todd B. Kimberlain; Eric S. Blake & John P. Cangialosi (February 1, 2016). Hurricane Patricia (PDF) (Report). Tropical Cyclone Report. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center . Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  3. 1 2 Lance F. Bosart; Philippe P. Papin; Andrew S. Levine & A. M. Bentley (April 19, 2016). "The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015". 32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Vol. 2016. American Meteorological Society. pp. A54F–07. Bibcode:2016AGUFM.A54F..07B. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved April 21, 2016.{{cite book}}: |journal= ignored (help)
  4. ↑ Philippe P. Papin; Kyle S. Griffin; Lance F. Bosart & Ryan D. Torn (2013). "A Climatology of Central American Gyres" (PDF). University of Albany. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 9, 2016. Retrieved April 21, 2016.
  5. ↑ Todd B. Kimberlain (October 17, 2015). Tropical Weather Outlook (.TXT) (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on March 4, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  6. ↑ Philip J. Klotzbach (January 15, 2010). "On the Madden–Julian Oscillation–Atlantic Hurricane Relationship" (PDF). Journal of Climate . 23 (2). American Meteorological Society: 282–293. Bibcode:2010JCli...23..282K. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2978.1. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 1, 2012. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
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  12. 1 2 Todd B. Kimberlain (October 20, 2015). Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  13. ↑ Richard J. Pasch (October 22, 2015). Hurricane Patricia Discussion Number 8 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  14. 1 2 Stacy R. Stewart (October 22, 2015). Tropical Storm Patricia Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  15. 1 2 Michael J. Brennan (October 22, 2015). Hurricane Patricia Discussion Number 11 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  16. ↑ Eric S. Blake (October 23, 2015). Hurricane Patricia Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved April 15, 2016.
  17. ↑ Eric S. Blake (October 23, 2015). Hurricane Patricia Intermediate Advisory Number 11a (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on March 20, 2016. Retrieved April 24, 2016.
  18. ↑ Scott Stripling (October 22, 2015). Tropical Weather Discussion (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on July 14, 2017. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
  19. 1 2 Josh Morgerman (November 2, 2015). iCyclone Chase Report: Hurricane Patricia (PDF) (Report). iCyclone. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  20. ↑ Scott Sistek (October 25, 2015). "Watch: 'Most intense turbulence' as NOAA flies through Hurricane Patricia". KOMO-TV . American Broadcasting Company. Archived from the original on February 5, 2016. Retrieved December 29, 2015.
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  22. ↑ Patricia Tocó Tierra en Costa de Jalisco (PDF) (Report) (in Spanish). Comisión Nacional de Agua. October 24, 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 8, 2015. Retrieved October 26, 2015.
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  26. ↑ "7 Day Observations from Data Collection Platform (DCP) CCXJ1". National Weather Service. October 23, 2015. Archived from the original on February 5, 2016. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
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  29. ↑ Jack L. Beven (October 24, 2015). Tropical Depression Patricia Discussion Number 19 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
  30. ↑ Jeff Masters & Bob Henson (October 24, 2015). "Patricia's Remnants to Fuel Dangerous Rains in Texas". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on October 25, 2015. Retrieved October 25, 2015.
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  32. ↑ Amanda K. Fanning (October 24, 2015). Storm Summary Number 15 for Southern Plains Heavy Rainfall (Report). College Park, Maryland: Weather Prediction Center. Archived from the original on May 24, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2015.
  33. ↑ Brown, Daniel; Kelly, Larry (October 25, 2023). Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update (Report). Miami, Florida. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  34. ↑ Kimberlain, Todd B.; Blake, Eric S.; Cangialosi, John P. (February 1, 2016). Hurricane Patricia (PDF) (Report). Tropical Cyclone Report. Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  35. ↑ Gunther, Emil B. (April 1977). "Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones of 1976". Monthly Weather Review. 105 (4). Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center: 508–522. Bibcode:1977MWRv..105..508G. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0508:EPTCO>2.0.CO;2 . Retrieved October 11, 2011.
  36. ↑ The 1992 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season (PDF) (Report). Honolulu, Hawaii: Central Pacific Hurricane Center. 1993. Retrieved November 24, 2003.
  37. 1 2 Blake, Eric S; Gibney, Ethan J; Brown, Daniel P; Mainelli, Michelle; Franklin, James L; Kimberlain, Todd B; Hammer, Gregory R (2009). Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Basin, 1949-2006 (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on April 11, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2013.
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  39. ↑ Bucci, Lisa; Brown, Daniel (October 10, 2023). Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 31A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  40. ↑ "North Atlantic Hurricane Best Tracks (HURDAT2)". Hurricane Research Division . National Hurricane Center. February 17, 2016. Archived from the original on June 2, 2016. Retrieved April 30, 2016.
  41. ↑ "Tropical Cyclones: Image Enhancements FAQ". Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies . Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin-Madison. n.d. Archived from the original on February 13, 2016. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  42. ↑ Dennis Mersereau (October 23, 2015). "At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia Is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded". The Vane. Gawker Media. Archived from the original on October 23, 2015. Retrieved October 23, 2015.
  43. ↑ Christopher W. Landsea (April 21, 2010). "Subject: E1) Which is the most intense tropical cyclone on record?". Frequently Asked Questions. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Archived from the original on December 6, 2010. Retrieved October 24, 2015.
  44. ↑ "5 Things to Know About Hurricane Patricia". Atlanta, Georgia: The Weather Channel. October 23, 2015. Archived from the original on March 15, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2015.
  45. ↑ "World: Maximum Surface Wind Gust (3-Second)". World Meteorological Organization. 2010. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2015.
  46. ↑ "Tropical Cyclone: Fastest Intensification of Tropical Cyclone". World Meteorological Organization. n.d. Archived from the original on April 20, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2015.
Hurricane Patricia
Patricia 2015 path.png
Track of Hurricane Patricia
North AtlanticNortheast PacificNorthwest PacificNorth IndianSouthwest IndianAustralian regionSouth PacificSouth Atlantic

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