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Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024. [1]
Incumbent two-term Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected with 55.4% of the vote in 2018. She announced she would be running for re-election on April 12, 2023. [2]
No Republican has won this Class 1 senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. The incumbent, Tammy Baldwin, was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points. [3] [4]
The race is considered to be a tossup given Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Baldwin to be the favorite to win.
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other senate seat. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite. [5] [6]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Tammy Baldwin (D) | $26,376,467 | $16,267,309 | $10,251,350 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [35] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | |||
Write-in | ||||
Total votes |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Eric Hovde (R) | $9,069,811 [lower-alpha 1] | $3,720,300 | $5,349,512 |
Stacey Klein (R) [lower-alpha 2] | $33,361.73 | $27,227.47 | $6,485.09 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [55] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | David Clarke | Mike Gallagher | Eric Hovde | Scott Mayer | Tom Tiffany | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | December 11–12, 2023 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | – | 7% | 6% | – | 36% |
51% | – | 10% | – | – | 39% | ||||
52% | – | – | 6% | – | 42% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | June 5–6, 2023 | 507 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 20% | 3% | – | 10% | 27% |
45% | 26% | – | – | – | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Eric Hovde | |||
Republican | Rejani Raveendran | |||
Republican | Charles Barman | |||
Write-in | ||||
Total votes |
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Phil Anderson (L) | $16,318 | $12,477 | $3,840 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [35] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [58] | Lean D | April 9, 2024 |
Inside Elections [59] | Lean D | July 28, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [60] | Lean D | January 24, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [61] | Lean D | June 8, 2024 |
Elections Daily [62] | Lean D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [63] | Lean D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Eric Hovde (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 38% | 19% [lower-alpha 4] |
290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 47% | 39% | 14% [lower-alpha 5] | ||
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | 14% |
New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% | ||
Quinnipiac University | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 42% | 4% |
Emerson College/The Hill | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | 11% |
CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,245 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Marquette University Law School | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 50% | – | ||
Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | 14% |
Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Mike Gallagher (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 3] | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] | May 23–25, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 43% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | TBD | ||||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
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