2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Louisiana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

As a Deep Southern state located largely within the Bible Belt, Louisiana has a conservative voting pattern, with the only Democrats to carry the state's electoral votes after FDR being Adlai Stevenson II in his first bid, John F. Kennedy, fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in his first bid, and Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas.

Republicans have won the state in every presidential election since George W. Bush of neighboring Texas did in 2000, doing so by double-digit margins since Bush's 2004 re-election; and since 2008, presidential Democrats have consistently and exclusively carried these parishes: Orleans, home to Louisiana's largest city New Orleans; East Baton Rouge, home to the state capital; Caddo, home to Shreveport; and the rural, predominantly-Black parishes of East Carroll, Madison, Tensas, St. Helena, Iberville, St. James, and St. John the Baptist. Louisiana is expected to again go comfortably towards the Republican candidate in 2024. ^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Louisiana Republican presidential primary

The Louisiana Republican primary was scheduled to be held on March 23, 2024.

Louisiana Republican primary, March 22, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	172,503	89.77%	47		47
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	13,123	6.83%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	3,022	1.57%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,281	0.67%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	595	0.31%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	580	0.30%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	519	0.27%
Rachel Swift	335	0.17%
David Stuckenberg	210	0.11%
Total:	192,168	100.00%	47		47
Source: [4] [5]

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Louisiana Democratic presidential primary

The Louisiana Democratic primary will be held on March 23, 2024. Alongside primary with Missouri.

Louisiana Democratic primary, March 22, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	143,380	86.1%	48
Marianne Williamson	7,898	4.7%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	4,351	2.6%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	3,770	2.3%
Bob Ely	2,652	1.6%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)	2,245	1.4%
Armando Perez-Serrato	1,200	0.7%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)	1,114	0.7%
Total:	166,610	100.0%	48	6	52
Source: [6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
538 [13]	Likely R	June 11, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Faucheux Strategies [upper-alpha 1]	April 22–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	52%	38%	10%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	506 (LV)	± 6.5%	51%	36%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Faucheux Strategies [upper-alpha 1]	April 22–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	33%	10%	2%	1%	6%

Hypothetical polling

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	506 (LV)	± 6.5%	46%	33%	21%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Louisiana
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll commissioned by The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "Louisiana Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
5. "Louisiana Republican Presidential Nominating Process". voterportal.sos.la.gov. March 23, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
6. "Louisiana Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. Retrieved May 3, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
13. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.