2004 Indiana gubernatorial election

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2004 Indiana gubernatorial election
Flag of Indiana.svg
←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  →
  Mitch Daniels.jpg Joe Kernan.jpg
Nominee Mitch Daniels Joe Kernan
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Becky Skillman Kathy Davis
Popular vote1,302,9121,113,900
Percentage53.2%45.5%
2004 Indiana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Daniels:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Kernan:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

Joe Kernan
Democratic

Elected Governor

Mitch Daniels
Republican

The 2004 Indiana gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2004, to elect the Governor of Indiana.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Governor Joe Kernan was defeated by Republican Mitch Daniels. Daniels' victory was the first time the Republican Party had been elected governor since 1984, and gave the party control of all the important statewide offices. [1] It was also the first time an incumbent governor had been defeated since the Constitution of Indiana was amended in 1972 to permit governors to serve two consecutive terms. [2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Campaign

Frank O'Bannon had been re-elected governor of Indiana in 2000 and was prevented from running for governor again by term limits. His lieutenant governor, Joe Kernan, on December 15, 2002 said that he would not be a candidate for governor. [3] State Senator Vi Simpson and Joe Andrew then vied for nomination for the next ten months. However, on September 13, 2003, O'Bannon had a stroke and died, resulting in Kernan taking over as governor. Kernan decided two months later, on November 4, 2003, that he would run for governor in 2004 and was unopposed in the Democratic primary after both Simpson and Andrew dropped out. [2]

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Kernan (incumbent) 283,924 100.00
Total votes283,924 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Campaign

Former White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mitch Daniels easily defeated conservative activist Eric Miller in the Republican primary on May 4, 2004. [5] The Republican candidate for governor in 2000, David M. McIntosh, had earlier dropped out of the race after President George W. Bush gave his support to Daniels. Daniels had quit as White House budget director in 2003 so he could return to Indiana and run for governor. President Bush came to South Bend, Indiana before the primary to support Daniels, and the President's nickname for Daniels, "My Man Mitch", became his campaign slogan. [6]

Results

Daniels .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Miller 50-60% 2004 Indiana gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg
Daniels
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Miller
  •   50-60%
Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mitch Daniels 335,828 66.40
Republican Eric Miller169,93033.60
Total votes505,758 100.00

General election

Campaign

Daniels campaigned by traveling throughout Indiana in his RV visiting all 92 Indiana counties at least three times. [2] Kernan fell behind in the polls in May 2004 and never caught up, despite closing the gap in September after attacking Daniels' plan to sell an Indiana utility to an out of state firm. [2] The economy of Indiana was a major issue in the campaign with Kernan, as incumbent, facing pressure over the state’s budget troubles. [7]

In addition to the two major party tickets, there was the Libertarian ticket of Kenn Gividen and Elaine Badnarik. [8] [9]

All three candidates took part in two debates during the campaign. The first was held on September 28, 2004 at Franklin College with the candidates clashing over the state's economy, prescription drugs and the extension of Interstate 69 from Indianapolis to Evansville. [10] The second debate was held on October 17, 2004 in New Albany, Indiana. Negative campaigning was the major issue. [11]

Between Daniels and Kernan the two candidates raised over 28 million dollars, easily surpassing the previous record set in 2000 of 19.2 million dollars. [12]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Likely R (flip)November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Mitch
Daniels (R)		Joe
Kernan (D)		Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA October 27–29, 2004587 (LV)± 4.1%52%44%4%

Statewide Results

Indiana gubernatorial election, 2004 [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitch Daniels/Becky Skillman 1,302,912 53.21% +11.54%
Democratic Joe Kernan/Kathy Davis (incumbents)1,113,90045.49%-11.06%
Libertarian Kenn Gividen/Elaine Badnarik31,6641.29%-0.48%
Write-ins220.00%
Majority189,0127.72%-7.16%
Turnout 2,448,49857%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

County Results

Kernan won 17 of Indiana's counties compared to 73 for Daniels. The candidates finish tied in 2 counties. [14]

CountyDanielsVotesKernanVotesGividenVotesTotal
Adams 62.9%8,35036.3%4,8160.7%9913,265
Allen 57.2%73,68941.9%53,8990.9%1,183128,771
Bartholomew 59.4%16,85838.8%11,0081.8%51928,385
Benton 60.8%2,43237.2%1,4981.7%693,999
Blackford 51.2%2,74147.9%2,5670.9%465,354
Boone 70.9%16,18927.3%6,3261.3%30522,820
Brown 55.0%4,01042.8%3,1182.2%1647,292
Carroll 59.2%5,09039.4%3,3871.3%1158,592
Cass 56.9%7,94641.6%5,8081.6%22113,975
Clark 49.0%20,47150.2%20,9640.9%36041,795
Clay 54.3%5,72444.3%4,6771.4%14810,549
Clinton 63.8%7,53735.0%4,1291.3%14811,814
Crawford 49.3%2,23149.3%2,2311.4%604,522
Daviess 59.5%6,22338.7%4,0491.8%18310,455
Dearborn 61.3%12,51437.2%7,5731.5%29720,384
Decatur 63.4%6,35535.2%3,5241.4%14010,019
DeKalb 59.8%9,24239.0%6,0121.2%18115,435
Delaware 48.0%22,91750.6%24,1321.4%66347,712
Dubois 57.1%9,38541.9%6,8711.0%16916,425
Elkhart 62.7%38,43036.5%22,4060.8%50361,339
Fayette 53.4%4,98145.3%4,2241.3%1219,326
Floyd 50.1%16,86949.1%16,5030.8%27933,651
Fountain 61.6%4,78637.1%2,8781.3%1017,765
Franklin 59.4%5,82239.4%3,8621.2%1149,798
Fulton 58.4%5,10340.3%3,5131.3%1108,726
Gibson 50.1%7,28948.1%7,1011.1%16614,556
Grant 57.2%15,54341.8%11,3761.0%27527,194
Greene 51.7%6,79146.7%6,1231.6%21313,127
Hamilton 73.0%76,43326.1%27,3160.9%920104,669
Hancock 67.4%18,82531.3%8,7461.3%35927,930
Harrison 53.7%9,24245.3%7,8091.0%17117,222
Hendricks 68.6%35,76130.2%15,6911.2%64152,093
Henry 56.0%11,40842.6%8,6741.4%28920,371
Howard 53.7%19,88545.2%16,7421.1%41537,042
Huntington 67.1%10,48431.7%4,9531.2%18315,620
Jackson 58.8%9,58740.0%6,5271.2%19116,305
Jasper 58.2%6,78140.4%4,7011.4%16711,649
Jay 56.2%4,53742.8%3,4531.0%808,070
Jefferson 51.1%6,54247.7%6,1091.2%15012,801
Jennings 55.4%5,80642.8%4,4821.8%19010,478
Johnson 66.9%34,26931.7%16,2531.4%70151,223
Knox 48.5%7,56950.0%7,7971.5%22815,594
Kosciusko 71.0%20,04727.9%7,8851.1%31628,248
LaGrange 63.2%5,74835.2%3,1711.1%979,016
Lake 33.7%61,72064.9%118,6971.4%2,617183,034
LaPorte 38.5%16,23459.4%25,0492.1%88142,164
Lawrence 65.0%11,48033.5%5,9041.5%25717,641
Madison 51.4%28,14247.5%25,9721.1%62354,737
Marion 46.5%148,82552.3%167,0971.2%3,895319,817
Marshall 60.6%10,74538.2%6,7561.2%20417,705
Martin 53.7%2,66444.4%2,2051.9%944,963
Miami 60.9%8,15537.8%5,0621.3%17913,396
Monroe 44.5%22,03153.1%26,3172.4%1,19249,540
Montgomery 66.2%9,63932.4%4,7111.4%19914,549
Morgan 64.6%16,71633.8%8,7401.6%42425,880
Newton 54.5%3,16443.6%2,5311.9%1115,806
Noble 61.3%9,57037.6%5,8631.1%17615,609
Ohio 52.5%1,51246.1%1,3281.4%412,881
Orange 56.4%4,81842.4%3,6211.3%1098,548
Owen 55.0%4,17942.7%3,2492.3%1767,604
Parke 53.8%3,74544.6%3,1011.6%1086,954
Perry 43.0%3,55956.2%4,6400.8%648,263
Pike 41.1%2,51757.3%3,5101.6%996,126
Porter 43.2%27,56555.1%35,2061.7%1,10863,879
Posey 52.6%6,25246.5%5,5250.9%10911,886
Pulaski 57.8%3,18541.1%2,2671.1%615,513
Putnam 60.8%8,00237.8%4,9841.4%18513,171
Randolph 56.8%6,27441.9%4,6281.3%14611,048
Ripley 59.1%6,92539.6%4,6351.3%15111,711
Rush 61.9%4,52936.6%2,6761.6%1167,321
Saint Joseph 45.3%49,19853.8%58,3270.9%1,000108,525
Scott 44.7%3,86254.3%4,6811.0%908,633
Shelby 61.9%9,86236.9%5,8851.2%19415,941
Spencer 52.3%5,18346.5%4,6121.2%1149,909
Starke 46.6%4,02452.2%4,5391.5%1318,694
Steuben 60.2%7,68438.5%4,9151.3%16512,764
Sullivan 44.2%3,68754.4%4,5301.4%1168,333
Switzerland 49.3%1,78049.3%1,7801.4%483,608
Tippecanoe 54.9%28,45843.4%22,5041.7%86551,827
Tipton 60.5%4,72938.1%2,9731.4%1087,810
Union 61.5%2,04036.7%1,2171.8%593,316
Vanderburgh 48.9%34,12949.9%34,8191.2%86369,811
Vermillion 39.5%2,76958.8%4,1211.7%1187,008
Vigo 42.4%16,80455.6%22,0542.0%80639,664
Wabash 64.9%8,69134.1%4,5691.0%13413,394
Warren 56.0%2,21442.5%1,6791.5%583,951
Warrick 53.8%13,87745.2%11,6781.0%26225,817
Washington 59.2%6,41939.6%4,2971.2%13410,850
Wayne 52.5%14,53045.4%12,5652.1%59527,690
Wells 66.4%8,07132.7%3,9790.9%11312,163
White 57.5%5,98040.9%4,2601.6%16710,407
Whitley 62.9%8,33236.0%4,7581.1%14913,239

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

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References

  1. ↑ "Republicans to stand alone at state's helm". The Indianapolis Star . November 7, 2004. Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  2. 1 2 3 4 "Daniels vows changes to government, economy after ending Democratic rule". The Indianapolis Star . November 3, 2004. Archived from the original on June 5, 2011. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  3. ↑ "Indiana election results 2004". The Washington Post . November 24, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
  4. 1 2 "2004 Official Primary Election Totals" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State.
  5. ↑ "The Race for Indiana Governor Is Now Set". NFIB.com. May 5, 2004. Archived from the original on November 12, 2008. Retrieved February 19, 2008.
  6. ↑ "Daniels wins Ind. GOP nomination for governor". USA Today . May 4, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  7. ↑ "GOP, Daniels see breakthrough to governor's office". CNN. November 1, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  8. 1 2 "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved April 21, 2011.
  9. ↑ DeAgostino, Martin (June 30, 2004). "Libertarians vow to end property tax" . Newspapers.com. The South Bend Tribune. Retrieved March 7, 2021.
  10. ↑ "Indiana gubernatorial candidates outline differences in debate". Online NewsHour. September 29, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
  11. ↑ "Indiana gubernatorial candidates spar over negative campaigning". Online NewsHour. October 18, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
  12. ↑ "Spending Soars in 11 Gubernatorial Races". Fox News Channel . November 1, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
  13. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  14. ↑ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, by County". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved November 9, 2008.

See also

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