A convention bounce or convention bump refers to an increase in support that U.S. presidential candidates in the Republican or Democratic party typically enjoy after the televised national convention of their party. [1] A presumptive nominee for president may also be said to experience a "VP bounce" after announcing his or her pick for vice president prior to the convention. The size and impact of convention bumps vary, but presidential candidates usually see at least a small uptick in their polling numbers coming out of their conventions. [2]
Bill Clinton benefited from one of the largest bumps in history after the Democratic National Convention in 1992, climbing by as many as 30 points in the polls, however this was assisted by Independent Ross Perot, who at the time was polling at 20%, withdrawing from the race during the Democratic convention. [3] Incumbent President George H. W. Bush's convention bounce was weak by comparison. Some party leaders blaming former primary challenger Pat Buchanan's fiery and divisive speech, which aired in primetime due to a scheduling delay.[ citation needed ]
Al Gore's 2000 bounce endured for weeks. Prior to the Democratic convention, Gore was behind Texas Gov. George W. Bush by as many as 16 points, [4] but was in a statistical tie with the Republican the weekend after his acceptance speech. [4] [5]
Contrary to the beliefs of political pundits, Democratic candidate John Kerry did not get a convention bounce in 2004. [6]
Polls indicated a small bounce for 2008 Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama after his party's convention in August, [7] but as expected, much of it evaporated during and after the Republican convention the week following, yielding GOP candidate John McCain a small lead in several polls. [8] [9] Nielsen ratings revealed that year's party conventions to be the most-watched ever, with the Republican convention narrowly trumping the Democrats'. [10]
The RealClearPolitics polling index revealed the 2012 convention bounces for President Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney to be comparably smaller than in past elections. [11] Though Romney pulled even with Obama during that year's Republican convention at the end of August, Obama opened up a three- or four-point lead during the Democratic convention the week after. [11]
In 2016, news sources and polls differed greatly on the size of the convention bounces received by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton after their respective conventions; [12] [13] [14] [15] however, the RealClearPolitics polling index showed both candidates trending upward leading up to and after their acceptance speeches. [16] Clinton's bounce lasted somewhat longer than Trump's. [16]
Democratic candidate Joe Biden, who held the lead over incumbent Republican Trump entering the Democratic convention, did not get a convention bounce, [17] [18] with a CNBC-Change Research poll also indicating that the race had instead tightened in the swing states. [19] Republican candidate Donald Trump similarly did not receive a convention bounce after the Republican convention [20] [21] with a CNN poll indicating that the race remained unchanged after both conventions. [22]
Dixville Notch is an unincorporated community in Dixville township, Coos County, New Hampshire, United States. The population of the township, all of whom live in Dixville Notch, was 4 as of the 2020 census. The village is known for being one of the first places to declare its results during United States presidential elections and the New Hampshire presidential primary. It is located in the northern part of the state, approximately 20 miles (30 km) south of the Canadian province of Quebec. The village is situated at about 1,800 feet (550 m) above sea level at the base of mountains.
The following is a timeline of major events leading up to and immediately following the United States presidential election of 2008. The election was the 56th quadrennial United States presidential election. It was held on November 4, 2008, but its significant events and background date back to about 2002. The Democratic Party nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, defeated the Republican Party's nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona.
The 2008 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The South Carolina presidential primary is an open primary election which has become one of several key early-state presidential primaries in the process of the Democratic and Republican Parties choosing their respective general election nominees for President of the United States. South Carolina has cemented its place as the "First in the South" primary for both parties.
Kids Pick the President is a series of specials produced by the Nickelodeon TV network, organized around a mock election to determine children's choice for the President of the United States. Since 1988, Kids Pick the President has accurately predicted the winner of each election with the exceptions of the 2004 and 2016 presidential elections.
The 2012 United States presidential election was the 57th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Joe Biden, were re-elected to a second term. They defeated the Republican ticket of businessman and former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
The following is a timeline of major events leading up to the United States presidential election of 2012. The election was the 57th quadrennial United States presidential election and was held on November 6, 2012.
The primary election to select the Democratic and Republican candidates had been held on April 24, 2012. The 2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose 20 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Pennsylvania's electoral vote number was a reduction from the 2008 delegation, which had 21 electors. This change was due to reapportionment following the 2010 United States Census. Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis.
Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party. Third parties, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party, were included in some polls.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls were either declared candidates, former candidates, or received media speculation about their possible candidacy. On May 4, 2016, Donald Trump became the sole contender and presumptive nominee.
This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.
The 2016 United States presidential election was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Georgia was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Georgia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Georgia has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Washington took place on November 8, 2016 as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Washington was won by Hillary Clinton, who won the state with 52.54% of the vote over Donald Trump's 36.83%, a margin of 15.71%. All of the state's 12 electoral votes were assigned to Clinton, though four defected. Trump prevailed in the presidential election nationally.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Kansas was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the nationwide presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Alaska has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Wisconsin voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Republican Party nominee Donald Trump against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.
The 2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in the District of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6 electors to be pledged for a candidate in the Electoral College. The two main tickets of the election were the Republican one, consisting of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, and the Democratic one, consisting of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
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