Next Senedd election

Last updated

Next Senedd election
Flag of Wales (1959-present).svg
←  2021 due on or before 7 May 2026
All 96 seats to the Senedd
49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Vaughan Gething (cropped official portrait).jpg Andrew RT Davies 2016 (cropped).jpg
Leader Vaughan Gething Andrew RT Davies
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 16 March 2024 24 January 2021
Leader's seat Cardiff South and Penarth South Wales Central
Current seats3016
Seats neededIncrease2.svg1Increase2.svg15
  Rhun ap Iorwerth official portrait (cropped).jpg Jane-dodds (cropped).jpg
Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Jane Dodds
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 16 June 2023 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Ynys Môn Mid and West Wales
Current seats121
Seats neededIncrease2.svg19Increase2.svg30
Incumbent First Minister

Vaughan Gething
Labour



The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026 [1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh : Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four. [2] [3]

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MSConstituency/RegionFirst electedPartyDate announced
Mark Drakeford Cardiff West 2011 Labour 9 August 2023 [4]

Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Bill, the size of the Senedd was increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections are organised in 16 six-member regions created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies. [5] Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used by the Liberal Democrats and until 2022 the Labour Party).

Opinion polling

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes. Constituency opinion polling for the next Senedd election.svg
LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.
PollsterClientDates
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems AWA Green Reform OtherLead
The Senedd Reform Bill is approved, under which the Senedd will no longer have a constituency component
Redfield & Wilton N/A22–23 Apr 202484037%21%22%4%3%3%10%0%15
Redfield & Wilton N/A23–24 Mar 202487836%21%21%3%3%3%11%1%15
Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [6]
Redfield & Wilton N/A18 Feb 202487434%21%19%4%6%3%13%0%13
Redfield & Wilton N/A24–26 Jan 20241,10039%25%18%3%3%4%9%1%14
Redfield & Wilton N/A10–11 Dec 20231,08641%22%17%7%3%3%7%0%19
Redfield & Wilton N/A12–13 Nov 20231,10040%23%18%3%3%4%7%1%17
Redfield & Wilton N/A14–15 Oct 202395937%27%18%4%5%3%6%-10
Redfield & Wilton N/A16–17 Sep 20231,17239%27%18%5%1%6%3%1%12
YouGov Barn Cymru1–6 Sep 20231,05141%18%19%6%–4%8%7%22
Redfield & Wilton N/A13–14 Aug 20231,06837%21%20%6%–3%9%4%16
Redfield & Wilton N/A14–16 Jul 20231,05042%22%16%6%–3%7%3%20
Redfield & Wilton N/A17–18 Jun 20231,00036%22%19%7%–3%10%3%14
YouGov Barn Cymru12–17 May 20231,06440%18%17%7%–5%8%4%22
Redfield & Wilton N/A14–15 May 20231,05838%23%20%7%–3%7%2%15
Redfield & Wilton N/A15–17 Apr 20231,25141%21%20%5%–4%8%2%20
YouGov Barn Cymru3–7 Feb 20231,08143%18%20%4%–4%9%1%23
YouGov Barn Cymru25 Nov – 1 Dec 20221,04244%17%20%6%–3%7%4%24
YouGov Barn Cymru20–22 Sep 20221,01440%20%22%6%–3%5%4%18
YouGov Barn Cymru12–16 Jun 20221,02037%24%21%6%–5%5%3%13
YouGov Barn Cymru25 Feb – 1 Mar 20221,08638%24%21%6%–3%5%4%14
YouGov ITV Wales13–16 Dec 20211,00940%23%17%4%–5%7%4%17
YouGov ITV Wales13–16 Sep 20211,05737%27%19%5%–4%5%5%10
2021 Senedd election [7] 6 May 2021–39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%1.6%1.6%4.0%13.8

Regional vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Regional List Votes. List opinion polling for the next Senedd election.svg
LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Regional List Votes.
PollsterClientDates
conducted		Sample
size		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA UKIP Reform OthersLead
Redfield & Wilton N/A22–23 Apr 202484033%18%19%6%7%4%–12%1%14
Redfield & Wilton N/A23–24 Mar 202487832%16%18%9%7%6%–11%1%14
Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [8]
Redfield & Wilton N/A18 Feb 202487429%16%25%4%8%7%–10%1%4
Redfield & Wilton N/A24–26 Jan 20241,10034%19%21%6%6%6%–7%1%13
Redfield & Wilton N/A10–11 Dec 20231,08628%20%24%7%8%4%–7%1%4
Redfield & Wilton N/A12–13 Nov 20231,10032%21%18%9%6%5%–7%1%11
Redfield & Wilton N/A14–15 Oct 202395931%21%24%4%5%7%–8%–10
Redfield & Wilton N/A16–17 Sep 20231,17235%21%18%6%12%2%–5%1%14
YouGov Barn Cymru1–6 Sep 20231,05134%16%20%6%6%9%1%6%2%14
Redfield & Wilton N/A13–14 Aug 20231,06831%19%22%6%10%––10%3%9
Redfield & Wilton N/A14–16 Jul 20231,05033%20%19%6%10%––6%4%13
Redfield & Wilton N/A17–18 Jun 20231,00030%22%20%6%9%––8%4%8
YouGov Barn Cymru12–17 May 20231,06436%16%18%7%7%5%1%7%1%18
Redfield & Wilton N/A14–15 May 20231,05830%21%24%4%10%––8%4%6
Redfield & Wilton N/A15–17 Apr 20231,25132%22%23%7%8%––7%2%9
YouGov Barn Cymru3–7 Feb 20231,08139%18%20%5%5%6%0%6%1%19
YouGov Barn Cymru25 Nov – 1 Dec 20221,04238%16%23%5%4%8%2%4%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
15
YouGov Barn Cymru20–22 Sep 20221,01437%18%21%5%5%7%2%4%1%16
YouGov Barn Cymru12–16 Jun 20221,02031%21%24%6%5%6%2%6%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
7
YouGov Barn Cymru25 Feb – 1 Mar 20221,08634%23%20%4%6%6%1%3%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
11
YouGov ITV Wales13–16 Dec 20211,00935%22%19%7%3%6%2%5%1%13
YouGov ITV Wales13–16 Sep 20211,05733%26%19%5%4%6%4%2%1%7
2021 Senedd election [7] 6 May 2021–36.2%25.1%20.7%4.4%4.3%3.7%1.6%1.1%2.9%11.1

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

  1. ↑ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  2. ↑ MSs approve Senedd reform bill - nation.cymru
  3. ↑ Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead - BBC
  4. ↑ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News . 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  5. ↑ "Welsh Conservative MS resigns from Senedd reform group after Labour and Plaid's 'completely out of order stunt'". Welsh Conservatives. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  6. ↑ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  7. 1 2 Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
  8. ↑ "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
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