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All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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New constituencies to be used |
The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. 32 seats will be up for election in Wales as the general election will occur after the recently completed boundary review took effect.
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliament Act 2011 meaning that the latest date that a new election could be called is before 17 December 2024, with election day no later than 28 January 2025. [1] The UK prime minister is also now able to call a general election. [2]
As required by the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, the number of seats in Wales must be reduced to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coinciding with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales is responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it must abide by this total.
The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021. [3] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period. [4] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies. [5] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November [6] and came into force on 29 November. [7]
MP | Seat | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wayne David | Caerphilly | 2001 | Labour | 11 February 2022 [8] | |
Hywel Williams | Arfon | 2001 | Plaid Cymru | 11 November 2022 [9] | |
David Jones | Clwyd West | 2005 | Conservative | 20 September 2023 [10] | |
Christina Rees | Neath | 2015 | Labour | 1 February 2024 [11] |
The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Reform | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22–23 Apr2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 40% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 22 |
23–24 Mar2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 49% | 16% | 10% | 5% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 33 |
20 Mar2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [82] | ||||||||||
18 Feb2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 45% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 23 |
24–26 Jan2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 48% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 28 |
10–11 Dec2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 47% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 25 |
4–7 Dec2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,004 | 42% | 20% | 15% | 7% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
12–13 Nov2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 44% | 24% | 13% | 4% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 20 |
14–15 Oct2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 46% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 20 |
16–17 Sep2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 44% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 22 |
1–6 Sep2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 50% | 19% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 31 |
13–14 Aug2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 17 |
14–16 Jul2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 46% | 24% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 22 |
17–18 Jun2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 43% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 21 |
16 Jun2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru [83] | ||||||||||
12–17 May2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 49% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 30 |
14–15 May2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 43% | 23% | 11% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 20 |
15–17 Apr2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 20 |
17–23 Feb2023 | YouGov | WalesOnline | 1,083 | 53% | 19% | 12% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 34 |
3–7 Feb2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 49% | 20% | 14% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 29 |
25 Nov–1 Dec2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 51% | 18% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 33 |
30 Sep–4 Oct2022 | Survation | 38 Degrees | 6,012 | 51% | 24% | 13% | 6% | – | – | 6% | 27 |
20–22 Sep2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 46% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 23 |
12–16 Jun2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 41% | 26% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 15 |
5 May 2022 | Local elections held in Wales [84] | ||||||||||
25 Feb–1 Mar2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 15 |
13–16 Dec2021 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,009 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 15 |
27 Sep–1 Oct2021 | YouGov | ? | ? | 39% | 29% | 17% | 3% | 5% | – | 7% | 10 |
13–16 Sep2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,071 | 37% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 6 |
6 May2021 | Election to the Senedd [85] | ||||||||||
2–4 May2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,071 | 37% | 36% | 14% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1 |
18–21 Apr2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,142 | 37% | 33% | 18% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4 |
9–19 Apr2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 2,005 | 42% | 33% | 14% | 3% | – | 3% | 5% UKIP on 3% Other on 2% | 9 |
16–19 Mar2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,174 | 35% | 35% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | Tie |
24 Jan2021 | Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [86] | ||||||||||
11–14 Jan2021 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,018 | 36% | 33% | 17% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 3 |
26–30 Oct2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,013 | 43% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 11 |
28 Aug–4 Sep2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,110 | 41% | 33% | 15% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 8 |
29 May–1 Jun2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,021 | 39% | 35% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 4 |
3–7 Apr2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,008 | 34% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 12 |
20–26 Jan2020 | YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 1,037 | 36% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5 |
12 Dec2019 | 2019 general election | – | 40.9% | 36.1% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 4.8 |
Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 Oct 2022 | People Polling | 1,237 | 35 | 0 | 4 | 1 | Assumes 40 Welsh seats. Seats will be reduced to 32. |
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 general election | – | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
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Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...