2020 United States Senate election in Kansas

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
  Roger Marshall official portrait (cropped).jpg Barbara Bollier cropped portrait.jpg
Nominee Roger Marshall Barbara Bollier
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote727,962571,530
Percentage53.22%41.79%

2020 United States Senate election in Kansas results map by county.svg
Kansas 2020 Senate by CD.svg
KS Senate 2020.svg
Marshall:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bollier:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Pat Roberts
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Marshall
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

On January 4, 2019, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts announced he would not run for a fifth term. [1] Candidates had until June 1, 2020 to file to run for the open seat or to drop out if they already filed. [2] The U.S. Senate primaries were held on August 4, 2020. [3] [4]

Republican U.S. Representative Roger Marshall was considered a narrow favorite based on polling, but he won by around 11 points, a larger margin than most experts predicted. However, this was the first Senate election since 1978 where a Democrat won Shawnee County, the first Senate election since 1974 where a Democrat won Riley County, and the first Senate election ever in Kansas's history where a Democrat won Johnson County; all three counties were also flipped by Democrat Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Primary debate

In a live-streamed debate on May 22, 2020, in a ballroom devoid of spectators due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all five major candidates praised president Donald Trump. Kobach took on his opponents who all agreed that he could not win the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee, Bollier. [37] Marshall said, "We cannot afford to send a failed candidate back this fall who will lose to Barbara Bollier and hand the Senate majority over to Chuck Schumer." "Instead, we need to send a tried and trusted friend of President Trump." Referring to Marshall, Kobach replied, "Do you want a go-along-to-get-along kind of senator, a gutless wonder who never takes a stand, or, do you want someone who poses a threat?" Hamilton said voters didn't have to choose between Kobach, who couldn't win, and a moderate Marshall, [37] in whose behest the state party leaders had urged Senator Wagle and Lindstrom, to drop out of the race. [37] Objecting to the party pressure, Lindstrom characterized his opponents as "shortsighted, self-serving ... career politicians who are divisive, controversial," and, "have a record of losing elections." [37] Wagle touted her own candidacy, saying, "It's very, very important that we send a leader to the U.S. Senate who is articulate, who is persuasive, who other people respect. ... I'm the one who's already debated Barbara Bollier. ... I win on the Senate floor. I've beat (sic) her numerous times ... the conservative voice that can beat that liberal voice in the U.S. Senate," she said. [37] In response to a claim that he would not prioritize the issue of agriculture, Marshall said, "Fake news and another lie by Kris Kobach." [37]

Endorsements

Kris Kobach
Organizations
Individuals
Roger Marshall
Federal officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Bob
Hamilton
Kris
Kobach
Dave
Lindstrom
Roger
Marshall
Susan
Wagle
OtherUndecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020419 (LV)15%35%4%26%4% [lower-alpha 2] 16%
May 28, 2020Wagle withdraws from the race
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 10–12, 2020600 (V)±  4%6%26%4%33%7%24%
March 30, 2020Hamilton announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 2] February 12–16, 2020300 (LV)± 5.6%2%40%5%23%8%21%
co/efficient (R) January 19–20, 20201,246 LV± 3.2%29%29%6%9% [lower-alpha 3] 28%
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019607 (LV)± 4.1%43%3%24%8%5% [lower-alpha 4] 16%
Hypothetical polling
with only Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kris KobachRoger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 10–12, 2020600 (V)± 4%34%48%
with only Bob Hamilton, Kris Kobach and Roger Marshall
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Bob HamiltonKris KobachRoger Marshall
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 10–12, 2020600 (V)± 4%10%29%41%
with Mike Pompeo and Susan Wagle
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kris KobachRoger MarshallMike PompeoOtherUndecided
NRSC [upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019607 (LV)± 4.1%17%11%54%7% [lower-alpha 5] 10%
with only Kris Kobach and Mike Pompeo
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kris KobachMike Pompeo
NRSC [upper-alpha 3] October 21–23, 2019607 (LV)± 4.1%24%68%

Results

Primary results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Marshall
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Kobach
30-40%
40-50%
Hamilton
30-40%
40-50%
50-60% Kansas Republican Senate primary, 2020.svg
Primary results by county
  Marshall
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kobach
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Hamilton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [56]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Roger Marshall 167,800 40.28%
Republican Kris Kobach 108,72626.10%
Republican Bob Hamilton77,95218.71%
Republican Dave Lindstrom 27,4516.59%
Republican Steve Roberts8,1411.95%
Republican Brian Matlock7,0831.70%
Republican Lance Berland6,4041.54%
Republican John Miller4,4311.06%
Republican Derek Ellis3,9700.95%
Republican Gabriel Robles3,7440.90%
Republican John Berman8610.21%
Total votes416,563 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Barbara Bollier
U.S. Senators
Federal officials
State politicians
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
State legislators
Organizations

Results

Primary results by county
Bollier
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100%
Tillman
50-60% Kansas Democratic Senate primary, 2020.svg
Primary results by county
  Bollier
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Tillman
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [56]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Barbara Bollier 168,759 85.34%
Democratic Robert Tillman28,99714.66%
Total votes197,756 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Jason Buckley, U.S. Navy veteran [84]

Independents

Withdrawn

General election

Endorsements

Roger Marshall (R)
Federal officials
Organizations
Barbara Bollier (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Former U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations
Unions
Newspapers and publications

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [102] Lean ROctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [103] Tilt ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [104] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [105] Lean ROctober 30, 2020
Politico [106] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
RCP [107] Lean ROctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [108] Lean RNovember 3, 2020
538 [109] Likely RNovember 2, 2020
Economist [110] Lean RNovember 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Roger
Marshall (R)
Barbara
Bollier (D)
Jason
Buckley (L)
OtherUndecided
Data For Progress October 27 – November 1, 20201,121 (LV)± 2.9%51%45%4%1% [lower-alpha 6]
VCreek/AMG October 25–27, 20201,149 (LV)± 3.8%47%43%2%8%
GBAO Strategies (D) Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 7] [upper-alpha 4] October 25–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45% [lower-alpha 8] 46%4%4% [lower-alpha 9]
47% [lower-alpha 10] 47%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] October 19–20, 2020897 (V)± 3.3%43%43%5%9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020755 (LV)± 4%46%42%4%2% [lower-alpha 11] 6% [lower-alpha 12]
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 6] October 18–20, 20202,453 (LV)± 3.7%51%39%2%8%
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 20203,104 (LV)± 1.75%42%45%2%11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020677 (LV)± 4.5%50%43%2% [lower-alpha 13] 5%
GBAO Strategies (D) [upper-alpha 4] September 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%43%45%7%
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020883 (LV)± 3.3%40% [lower-alpha 8] 40%5%15%
42% [lower-alpha 10] 42%15%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 6] September 15–16, 2020794 (LV)± 3.5%43%39%2%16%
SurveyUSA August 8–9, 20201,202 (LV)± 3.3%46%44%10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 7] August 5–6, 2020864 (V)± 3.3%43%42%15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020699 (RV)± 4.2%42%41%9% [lower-alpha 3] 8%
NMB Research (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 17–19, 2020506 (LV)± 4.5%46%35%18%
Public Policy Polling March 10–11, 20201,567 (V)± 2.5%47%37%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Hamilton vs. Barbara Bollier
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Bob
Hamilton (R)
Barbara
Bollier (D)
OtherUndecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020699 (RV)± 4.2%40%41%11% [lower-alpha 14] 8%
Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Bollier
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach (R)
Barbara
Bollier (D)
OtherUndecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 30 – June 1, 2020699 (RV)± 4.2%41%42%11% [lower-alpha 14] 7%
NMB Research/NRSC (R) [upper-alpha 3] May 17–19, 2020506 (LV)± 4.5%44%43%12%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] April 13–14, 20201,271 (RV)± 2.7%42%44%13%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 2] February 12–13, 2020300 (LV)± 5.6%47%38%15%
DFM Research Archived February 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 9] January 30 – February 6, 2020600 (A)± 4.0%43%43%4%10%
Kris Kobach vs. Barry Grissom
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kris
Kobach (R)
Barry
Grissom (D)
Undecided
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R) [upper-alpha 3] June 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4%42% [lower-alpha 15] 52%
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
co/efficient/Keep Kansas Great PAC [upper-alpha 10] September 15–16, 2020794 (LV)± 3.5%53%39%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 8] April 13–14, 20201,271 (RV)± 2.7%50%40%11%
DFM Research/SMART Transportation Division Archived February 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 9] January 30 – February 6, 2020600 (A)± 4.0%39%31%30%
Tarrance Group/NRSC (R) [upper-alpha 3] June 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%36%

Results

On the night of the election, Roger Marshall was announced as the winner of the Senate race. [111]

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2020 [112]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Roger Marshall 727,962 53.22% +0.07%
Democratic Barbara Bollier 571,53041.79%N/A
Libertarian Jason Buckley68,2634.99%+0.67%
Total votes1,367,755 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "someone else" with 4%
  3. 1 2 "Someone else" with 9%
  4. Hartman with 5%
  5. Wagle with 4%; Hartman with 2%; Lindstrom with 1%
  6. "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  7. Archived November 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  8. 1 2 Standard VI response
  9. Includes Undecided
  10. 1 2 If Bollier and Marshall were the only candidates
  11. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. "Someone else" with 2%
  14. 1 2 "Someone else" with 11%
  15. Figures for other Republicans tested against Grissom in this poll have not been released, but all others led him by at least 8%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll conducted for the Marshall campaign.
  2. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 This poll was conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Bollier's campaign.
  5. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
  8. 1 2 Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  9. 1 2 The SMART Transportation Division is an AFL-CIO affiliated PAC promoting employee assistance programs for retired railroad, bus, and mass transit workers
  10. Keep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period

See also

Related Research Articles

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Further reading

Official campaign websites