2020 United States presidential election in Maine

2020 United States presidential election in Maine

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Turnout	78%
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 3 1 First round 435,072 360,737 Percentage 53.09% 44.02%
County Results Municipality Results Congressional District Results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[1] Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[2] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district.

On election day, Biden carried Maine at-large by nine percentage points and the 1st congressional district by 23 percentage points, garnering three electoral votes. However, the rural 2nd district backed Trump by more than seven percentage points, giving him one electoral vote. This was the same result as 2016, and as such marked only the second time since 1828 that Maine split its electoral votes. ^[3]

Maine became the first state to use ranked-choice voting for a presidential general election, with voters able to rank their preferred candidates on the ballot. ^[4] Majorities were reached in the first round of voting statewide and in each congressional district, so ranked-choice voting tabulation was not required. ^[5]

Biden performed strongly with college-educated ^[6] voters to win Maine. ^[7] Maine weighed in for this election as 5% more Democratic than the national average.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 Maine Republican presidential primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Maine's 22 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. ^[8]

2020 Maine Republican presidential primary ^[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [10]
Donald Trump	95,360	83.85	22
Blank ballots	18,368	16.15	0
Total	113,728	100%	22

Democratic primary

Joe Biden won the state primary. Opponent Bernie Sanders won the Maine caucus in 2016.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary § Results.[ edit ]

Results by county

  Biden—30–40%

  Biden—40–50%

  Sanders—30–40%

2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary ^[11]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [12]
Joe Biden	68,729	33.37	11
Bernie Sanders	66,826	32.45	9
Elizabeth Warren	32,055	15.57	4
Michael Bloomberg	24,294	11.80
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]	4,364	2.12
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]	2,826	1.37
Tulsi Gabbard	1,815	0.88
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	696	0.34
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]	313	0.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]	218	0.11
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	201	0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	183	0.09
Blank ballots	3,417	1.66
Total	205,937	100%	24

Libertarian nominee

• Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

Green nominee

• Howie Hawkins, co-founder of the Green Party, trade unionist and environmental activist

Alliance nominee

• Rocky De La Fuente, businessman

General election

Ballot access

The Libertarian Party was recognized by Maine as an official party in June 2016 but lost that status in December 2018. To qualify for ballot access, Jorgensen was required to submit 4,000 petition signatures to the state by August 3. Jorgensen sued the state for a reduction of the signature requirement, citing an increase in the difficulty of petitioning caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. ^[13] Jorgensen was successful in appearing on the ballot.

Final predictions

Source	Ranking (statewide)	Ranking (1st)	Ranking (2nd)
The Cook Political Report [14]	Likely D	Solid D	Tossup
Inside Elections [15]	Solid D	Solid D	Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16]	Likely D	Safe D	Lean R
Politico [17]	Likely D	Solid D	Tossup
RCP [18]	Lean D	Likely D	Tossup
Niskanen [19]	Safe D	Safe D	Likely R
CNN [20]	Solid D	Solid D	Tossup
The Economist [21]	Safe D	Not given	Not given
CBS News [22]	Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
270towin [23]	Likely D	Safe D	Tossup
ABC News [24]	Solid D	Solid D	Tossup
NPR [25]	Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
NBC News [26]	Likely D	Solid D	Tossup
538 [27]	Likely D	Solid D	Tossup

Polling

Graphical summary (statewide)

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3]	Margin
270 to Win	October 6 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	51.8%	40.2%	8.0%	Biden +11.6
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	53.3%	40.3%	6.4%	Biden +13.0
Average			53.1%	40.3%	7.2%	Biden +12.3

Statewide polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 4]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Change Research	Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020	1,024 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	52%	4%	2%	1% [lower-alpha 5]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,274 (LV)	± 4%	42% [lower-alpha 6]	56%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College	Oct 29–31, 2020	611 (LV)	± 3.9%	43% [lower-alpha 7]	54%	–	–	2% [lower-alpha 8]	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	1,995 (LV)	–	43%	56%	–	–	–	–
SurveyUSA/FairVote	Oct 23–27, 2020	1,007 (LV)	± 3.7%	40% [lower-alpha 9]	53%	2%	2%	1% [lower-alpha 10]	2%
				42% [lower-alpha 11]	55%	–	–	1% [lower-alpha 12]	2%
Colby College	Oct 21–25, 2020	879 (LV)	± 3.3%	38%	51%	–	–	4% [lower-alpha 13]	8%
Pan Atlantic Research	Oct 2–6, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.5%	40%	50%	–	–	6% [lower-alpha 14]	4%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News	Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020	466 (LV)	± 4.4%	40% [lower-alpha 9]	51%	3%	1%	2% [lower-alpha 15]	3%
				40% [lower-alpha 16]	52%	–	–	5% [lower-alpha 17]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	729 (LV)	–	38%	60%	–	–	–	2%
Data for Progress (D)	Sep 23–28, 2020	718 (LV)	± 3.7%	39% [lower-alpha 9]	53%	2%	1%	–	5%
				41% [lower-alpha 18]	55%	–	–	–	4%
Colby College	Sep 17–23, 2020	847 (LV)	± 3.4%	39%	50%	–	–	4% [lower-alpha 19]	6%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe	Sep 17–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	39% [lower-alpha 9]	51%	1%	0%	1% [lower-alpha 20]	7%
				39% [lower-alpha 11]	51%	–	–	2% [lower-alpha 21]	8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 11–16, 2020	663 (LV)	± 5.1%	38% [lower-alpha 22]	55%	0%	0%	1% [lower-alpha 23]	6% [lower-alpha 24]
Quinnipiac University	Sep 10–14, 2020	1,183 (LV)	± 2.9%	38%	59%	–	–	0% [lower-alpha 25]	3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP	Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	54%	–	–	1% [lower-alpha 26]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	502 (LV)	–	37%	61%	–	–	–	1%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News	Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020	453 (LV)	–	38%	45%	–	–	11% [lower-alpha 27]	6%
Quinnipiac University Archived August 7, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	805 (RV)	± 3.7%	37%	52%	–	–	6% [lower-alpha 28]	4%
RMG Research	Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	39%	50%	–	–	7% [lower-alpha 29]	4%
Data for Progress	Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020	866 (LV)	–	42% [lower-alpha 9]	49%	1%	1%	–	7%
				43% [lower-alpha 30]	53%	–	–	–	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	733 (LV)	–	41%	57%	–	–	–	1%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME [upper-alpha 1]	Jul 23–24, 2020	962 (V)	–	42%	53%	–	–	–	5%
Colby College/SocialSphere	Jul 18–24, 2020	888 (RV)	± 3.9%	38%	50%	–	–	5% [lower-alpha 31]	7%
Public Policy Polling	Jul 2–3, 2020	1,022 (V)	± 3.1%	42%	53%	–	–	–	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	202 (LV)	–	46%	51%	–	–	–	3%
Public Policy Polling	Mar 2–3, 2020	872 (V)	± 3.3%	42%	52%	–	–	–	6%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 11–13, 2019	939 (LV)	± 3.2%	42%	54%	–	–	–	4%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP	Jul 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	50%	–	–	–	5%
Gravis Marketing	Jun 24, 2019	767 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	54%	–	–	–	–

Maine's 1st congressional district

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3]	Margin
270 to Win	October 6 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	57.8%	35.0%	7.2%	Biden +22.8
Real Clear Politics	September 17 – October 6, 2020	October 30, 2020	56.7%	34.3%	9.0%	Biden +22.4

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 4]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Change Research	Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020	549 (LV)	–	35%	56%	4%	3%	–	–
Emerson College	Oct 29–31, 2020	310 (LV)	–	39%	58%	–	–	3% [lower-alpha 32]	1%
SurveyUSA/FairVote	Oct 23–27, 2020	498 (LV)	–	35% [lower-alpha 9]	59%	2%	2%	1% [lower-alpha 10]	2%
				36% [lower-alpha 11]	61%	–	–	1% [lower-alpha 12]	2%
Colby College	Oct 21–25, 2020	426 (LV)	–	34%	56%	–	–	4% [lower-alpha 13]	7%
Pan Atlantic Research	Oct 2–6, 2020	300 (LV)	± 6.4%	37%	54%	–	–	7%	–
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News	Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020	232 (LV)	–	30%	62%	3%	1%	2% [lower-alpha 33]	3%
Colby College	Sep 17–23, 2020	416 (LV)	–	36%	54%	–	–	5% [lower-alpha 34]	5%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe	Sep 17–20, 2020	267 (LV)	–	33% [lower-alpha 9]	54%	2%	0%	1% [lower-alpha 20]	9%
				34% [lower-alpha 11]	55%	0%	0%	2% [lower-alpha 35]	9%
Quinnipiac University	Sep 10–14, 2020	707 (LV)	–	32%	64%	–	–	1% [lower-alpha 36]	3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP	Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020	433 (LV)	–	35%	58%	–	–	–	–
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News	Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020	250 (LV)	–	33%	49%	–	–	11% [lower-alpha 37]	6%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	392 (LV) [lower-alpha 38]	–	30%	61%	–	–	6% [lower-alpha 39]	3%
Colby College/SocialSphere	Jul 18–24, 2020	425 (LV)	–	35%	55%	–	–	6% [lower-alpha 40]	5%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 11–13, 2019	478 (LV)	–	38%	58%	–	–	–	3%

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3]	Margin
270 to Win	October 6 – November 1, 2020	November 3, 2020	46.4%	45.2%	8.4%	Biden +1.2
Real Clear Politics	September 17 – October 6, 2020	October 27, 2020	44.7%	45.0%	10.3%	Trump +0.3

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 4]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Change Research	Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020	475 (LV)	± 4.6%	46% [lower-alpha 9]	47%	4%	1%	0% [lower-alpha 41]	1%
				50% [lower-alpha 42]	50%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College	Oct 29–31, 2020	301 (LV)	–	47%	50%	–	–	3% [lower-alpha 32]	0%
SurveyUSA/FairVote	Oct 23–27, 2020	509 (LV)	–	45% [lower-alpha 9]	48%	2%	2%	1% [lower-alpha 10]	2%
				49% [lower-alpha 43]	51%	–	–	–	–
Colby College	Oct 21–25, 2020	453 (LV)	–	42%	46%	–	–	4% [lower-alpha 13]	9%
Pan Atlantic Research	Oct 2–6, 2020	300 (LV)	± 6.4%	43%	47%	–	–	6%	–
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News	Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020	234 (LV)	–	49%	41%	2%	1%	1% [lower-alpha 44]	3%
Colby College	Sep 17–23, 2020	425 (LV)	–	43%	46%	–	–	3% [lower-alpha 45]	8%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe	Sep 17–20, 2020	233 (LV)	–	45% [lower-alpha 9]	47%	0%	0%	1% [lower-alpha 46]	6%
				45% [lower-alpha 11]	47%	0%	0%	1% [lower-alpha 47]	6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 11–16, 2020	440 (LV)	–	45% [lower-alpha 22]	47%	–	–	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Sep 10–14, 2020	476 (LV)	–	44%	53%	–	–	0% [lower-alpha 25]	3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP	Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020	367 (LV)	–	45%	49%	–	–	–	–
Left of Centre PAC [upper-alpha 2]	Aug 25–28, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	48%	–	–	–	3%
Critical Insights/Digital Research/Bangor Daily News	Jul 28 – Aug 9, 2020	249 (LV)	–	38%	39%	–	–	12% [lower-alpha 48]	11%
Quinnipiac University	Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020	382 (RV) [lower-alpha 38]	–	45%	44%	–	–	6% [lower-alpha 28]	5%
Colby College/SocialSphere	Jul 18–24, 2020	449 (LV)	–	42%	45%	–	–	4% [lower-alpha 13]	9%
Public Policy Polling	Oct 11–13, 2019	461 (LV)	–	46%	49%	–	–	–	4%

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 52% 5% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% – with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 872 (V) ± 3.3% 42% 52% 7% Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% – with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 939 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 53% 4% Gravis Marketing Jun 24, 2019 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% – with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 38% 58% 3% with Kamala Harris in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4% with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 4% with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 478 (LV) – 39% 57% 3% with Pete Buttigieg in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 44% 7% with Kamala Harris in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 49% 43% 8% with Bernie Sanders in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 47% 49% 4% with Elizabeth Warren in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Public Policy Polling Oct 11–13, 2019 461 (LV) – 48% 47% 5%

Hypothetical polling

with Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 34% 37% 30% [lower-alpha 49] with Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided Pan Atlantic Research Mar 4–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 53% 19% [lower-alpha 50] with Generic Democrat in Maine's 1st congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 515 (LV) – 28% 41% 31% [lower-alpha 51] with Generic Democrat in Maine's 2nd congressional district Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 4] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Colby College/SocialSphere Feb 10–13, 2020 493 (LV) – 41% 34% 28% [lower-alpha 52]

Results

Statewide (2 electoral votes)

2020 United States presidential election in Maine ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	435,072	53.09%	+5.26%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	360,737	44.02%	−0.85%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	14,152	1.73%	−3.36%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	8,230	1.00%	−0.91%
	Alliance	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	1,183	0.14%	N/A
	Write-in		87	0.01%	N/A
Total votes			819,461	100.00%
	Democratic win

1st congressional district (1 electoral vote)

2020 United States presidential election in Maine's 1st congressional district ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	266,376	60.11%	+6.15%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	164,045	37.02%	−2.13%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	7,343	1.66%	−3.05%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	4,654	1.05%	−0.87%
	Alliance	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	649	0.15%	N/A
	Write-in		45	0.01%	N/A
Total votes			443,112	100.00%
	Democratic win

2nd congressional district (1 electoral vote)

2020 United States presidential election in Maine's 2nd congressional district ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	196,692	52.26%	+1.00%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	168,696	44.82%	+3.84%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	6,809	1.81%	−3.71%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	3,576	0.95%	−0.94%
	Alliance	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	534	0.14%	N/A
	Write-in		42	0.01%	N/A
Total votes			376,349	100.00%
	Republican win

By county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Androscoggin	27,617	47.04%	29,268	49.85%	1,822	3.11%	-1,651	-2.81%	58,707
Aroostook	13,956	39.04%	21,113	59.06%	677	1.90%	-7,157	-20.02%	35,746
Cumberland	128,759	66.45%	59,584	30.75%	5,422	2.80%	69,175	35.70%	193,765
Franklin	8,069	46.40%	8,754	50.34%	567	3.26%	-685	-3.94%	17,390
Hancock	19,369	54.83%	14,982	42.41%	974	2.76%	4,387	12.42%	35,325
Kennebec	34,902	48.57%	34,721	48.32%	2,235	3.11%	181	0.25%	71,858
Knox	15,110	58.72%	9,982	38.79%	642	2.49%	5,128	19.93%	25,734
Lincoln	12,684	53.76%	10,256	43.47%	654	2.77%	2,428	10.29%	23,594
Oxford	14,755	44.06%	17,698	52.84%	1,039	3.10%	-2,943	-8.78%	33,492
Penobscot	37,713	44.23%	44,825	52.57%	2,731	3.20%	-7,112	-8.34%	85,269
Piscataquis	3,517	35.50%	6,143	62.00%	248	2.50%	-2,626	-26.50%	9,908
Sagadahoc	13,528	56.28%	9,755	40.58%	755	3.14%	3,773	15.70%	24,038
Somerset	10,199	36.98%	16,644	60.35%	735	2.67%	-6,445	-23.37%	27,578
Waldo	12,345	50.76%	11,196	46.03%	781	3.21%	1,149	4.73%	24,322
Washington	6,761	38.95%	10,194	58.73%	402	2.32%	-3,433	-19.78%	17,357
York	71,189	54.90%	54,817	42.28%	3,653	2.82%	16,372	12.62%	129,659
Total	435,072	53.09%	360,770	44.03%	23,619	2.88%	74,302	9.06%	819,461

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5–7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Kennebec (largest municipality: Augusta)

By congressional district

Biden won one of the two districts. Trump won the other district, which also elected a Democrat.

District	Biden	Trump	Representative
1st	60.11%	37.02%	Chellie Pingree
2nd	44.82%	52.26%	Jared Golden

Analysis

Biden carried Maine by a 9.07% margin over Trump, improving over Hillary Clinton's 3% win margin in 2016. Biden handily carried Maine's 1st congressional district by 23%, while Trump carried its 2nd congressional district by 7.4%, winning a single electoral vote from the state. This marked the first election in history in which Maine and Nebraska both split their electoral votes. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Biden earned a majority statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump earned a majority in the 2nd district. Biden narrowly flipped Kennebec County (home to the state capital, Augusta) four years after Clinton lost it. All other counties favored the same party they did in 2016. ^[29]

Maine is located in New England, an area that has become a Democratic Party stronghold. It was once a classic Rockefeller Republican state, but social issues have moved it to the Democratic column. The last Republican to win all its electoral votes was George H. W. Bush in 1988. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maine came from liberals, with Biden winning whites 54%–44%, including 56% of white women. Biden was even competitive with Trump among Maine's gun owners, a traditionally Republican interest group, capturing 42% of their vote to Trump's 57%. ^[30]

This was the first presidential election since 2004 in which Maine's 2nd congressional district backed the losing candidate, and the 2nd district is the only part of the so-called Blue Wall which Trump won in 2020, referring to states and electoral-vote areas that voted Democratic in every election from 1992 to 2012; Biden thus became the first Democrat since 1976 to win the White House without carrying this district, and consequently also the first since said election to win without carrying all of the electoral votes located in New England. Biden also became the first Democrat since 1892 to win the White House without carrying Androscoggin County, the first since 1976 to do so without carrying Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, or Washington counties, and the first since 1992 to do so without carrying Somerset County.

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in Maine by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling) [31] [32]
Demographic subgroup	Biden	Trump	% of total vote
Total vote	53.09	44.02	100
Ideology
Liberals	93	4	28
Moderates	61	37	42
Conservatives	9	89	30
Party
Democrats	94	5	28
Republicans	9	89	31
Independents	59	35	41
Gender
Men	42	52	41
Women	61	38	59
Race/ethnicity
White	53	44	95
Non-white	47	46	5
Age
18–24 years old	66	31	8
25–29 years old	53	37	7
30–39 years old	59	38	13
40–49 years old	38	56	13
50–64 years old	49	50	31
65 and older	59	40	28
Sexual orientation
LGBT	–	–	6
Not LGBT	54	43	94
Education
High school or less	35	62	21
Some college education	50	47	28
Associate's degree	47	49	12
Bachelor's degree	67	32	22
Postgraduate degree	66	30	17
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality	96	3	15
Coronavirus	88	10	21
Economy	6	92	35
Crime and safety	–	–	8
Health care	–	–	11
Region
Portland area	73	23	17
Southern Maine	54	43	36
Bangor/Auburn	48	48	18
Downeast/Upcountry	43	55	29
Area type
Urban	–	–	5
Suburban	55	42	45
Rural	50	48	51
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago	16	80	38
Worse than four years ago	91	8	21
About the same	66	32	38

See also

• 2020 Maine elections
• United States presidential elections in Maine
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the date of the election.
2. Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
4. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
5. Did not vote with 1%; "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
6. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
7. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
8. "Someone else" with 2%
9. Standard VI response
10. De La Fuente (A) with 1%
11. Reassigning the second and third preferences of non-Biden/Trump voters
12. "No second choice"/"no third choice" with 1%
13. "One of the minor party candidates" with 4%
14. "All other candidates" with 6%
15. "Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
16. Ressigning the second preferences of Hawkins and Jorgensen voters
17. "Refused" with 2%; De La Fuente (A), "No second preference" and "Someone else" with 1%; Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) with no voters
18. If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
19. "A minor party candidate" with 4%
20. "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with 0%
21. "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and Hawkins (G) with 0%; Jorgensen (L) and "Other" with no voters
22. Topline after Ranked-Choice Voting is used
23. "Someone else" with 0%; would not vote with 1%
24. Includes "Refused"
25. "Someone else" with 0%
26. Would not vote with 1%
27. "Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 1%
28. "Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
29. "Some other candidate" with 7%
30. If only Biden and Trump were candidates
31. "One of the minor party candidates" with 5%
32. "Someone else" with 3%
33. "Refused" and "Someone else" with 1%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
34. "A minor party candidate" with 5%
35. "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A) with 0%; "Other" with no voters
36. "Someone else" with 1%
37. "Someone else" with 9%; "Prefer not to say" with 2%; Would not vote with 1%
38. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
39. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
40. "One of the minor party candidates" with 6%
41. Did not vote, "Don't recall" and would not vote with 0%
42. After three rounds of ranked choice voting
43. With Ranked Choice Voting
44. "Refused" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; De La Fuente (A) with no voters
45. "A minor party candidate" with 3%
46. "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Fuente (A) with no voters
47. "Refused" with 1%; Fuente (A) and "Other" with no voters
48. "Someone else" with 8%; "Prefer not to say" and would not vote with 2%
49. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" and "Undecided at this time" with 15%
50. "Consider voting for Trump" with 15%; Undecided with 5%
51. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 15%; "Undecided at this time" with 16%
52. "It depends on who the Democratic candidate is" with 14%; "Undecided at this time" with 14%

Partisan clients

1. AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
2. The pollster exclusively supports Democratic candidates

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
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3. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. Retrieved August 25, 2017.
4. Thistle, Scott (September 6, 2019). "Gov. Mills allows ranked-choice voting in Maine's presidential elections". Press Herald. Retrieved September 6, 2019.
5. "A Timeline of Ranked-choice Voting in Maine" (PDF). Maine Department of the Secretary of State.
6. "Maine 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
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10. "Maine Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
11. "March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election: Tabulation of Votes". State of Maine Department of the Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
12. "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Maine Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
13. Shepherd, Michael (July 31, 2020). "Libertarian presidential candidate sues Maine in bid to loosen ballot access rules". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved August 2, 2020.
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19. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
20. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
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22. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
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24. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
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27. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
28. "U.S. President by Congressional District". Maine Department of the Secretary of State. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
29. "Maine presidential election results 2020: Live results and polls". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
30. "Maine Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020.
31. "Maine 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
32. "Maine Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Maine

External links

• Elections & Voting division of the Maine Secretary of State
• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Maine", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Maine: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Maine". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)