2022 Maine gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Maine gubernatorial election
Flag of Maine.svg
←  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  →
Registered1,145,052 [1] [2] (Increase2.svg 8.14 pp)
Turnout59.47% [3] (Decrease2.svg 1.77 pp)
  Janet Mills in 2019.jpg Paul LePage by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Janet Mills Paul LePage
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote376,934287,304
Percentage55.69%42.45%
2022 Maine gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Maine Gov el by CD.svg
2022 Maine gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Mills:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
LePage:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     
Governor before election

Janet Mills
Democratic

Elected Governor

Janet Mills
Democratic

The 2022 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic governor Janet Mills won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee and former governor, Paul LePage. Neither candidate faced any primary opposition. [4] [5] An independent candidate, Sam Hunkler, received 2% of the vote, the lowest total for a third party or independent gubernatorial candidate in the state since 1982.

Contents

This was the first gubernatorial election in Maine since 1990 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president. With over 376,000 votes, Mills won more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Maine history, breaking her own record set four years earlier. Her 13-point margin of victory was the largest for a statewide Democratic candidate since George J. Mitchell won over 80% of the vote in the 1988 United States Senate election.

Mills's victory was also the largest for any gubernatorial candidate since incumbent Angus King won 59% of the vote in 1998.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify for ballot access

  • John Glowa, wildlife activist [7]

Declined

Endorsements

Janet Mills
State legislators
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Janet Mills (incumbent) 69,422 93.42%
Democratic Blank ballots4,8896.58%
Total votes74,311 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify for ballot access

Filed paperwork

Endorsements

Paul LePage
U.S. senators
U.S. Governors
Organizations
  • Maine Lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police [17]

Results

Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Paul LePage 59,713 90.91%
Republican Blank ballots5,9719.09%
Total votes65,684 100.0%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

General election

With no other candidates challenging Mills or LePage in their respective primaries, the campaign started out with most prediction models giving Mills a slight edge over LePage. However, Maine had not elected a governor from the same party as the President since 1990, and some Democrats were afraid that Democratic president Joe Biden's low approval ratings would hurt Mills. [21]

Access to abortion became a crucial issue following the Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization , which overturned Roe v. Wade and eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, effectively returning the issue to the states. Following the leak of the draft opinion, Mills released a statement saying "I do not consider the rights of women to be dispensable. And I pledge that as long as I am governor, I will fight with everything I have to protect reproductive rights and to preserve access to reproductive health care in the face of every and any threat to it – whether from politicians in Augusta or Supreme Court Justices in Washington." [22]

After the release of the draft opinion, LePage stated he supported some abortion restrictions, but pledged to preserve access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and life of the mother. [22] However, this was seen as a reversal over his previous statements, including one in 2016 where he said that "we should not have abortion," [23] and a 2018 statement in support of overturning Roe v. Wade. [24] LePage would continue to struggle with questions on abortion, and a stumble in a debate with Mills on the topic led to national headlines. [25] [24]

Over the course of the campaign, Mills developed a fundraising advantage over LePage, [26] while outside groups unaffiliated with either campaign broke records for spending, mostly on negative ads. Ads supporting Mills's candidacy or opposing LePage's candidacy accounted for over $9 million in spending, while ads supporting LePage or opposing Mills accounted for over $7 million. [27]

Polls released after the primaries showed Mills having a moderate-to-large lead over LePage, with the closest poll showing her ahead by six points.

Mills was declared the winner by the Associated Press shortly before midnight on November 8. LePage did not immediately concede the race, [28] but did concede on November 9 with a written statement. [29] In his election night remarks, LePage concluded that he "missed the message" on abortion. [30] Some observers saw the results as symbolic of the decline of the once-dominant Maine Republican Party, and Maine's movement towards becoming a solid blue state. [31]

In the election, Mills broke her own record set four years earlier for most votes received by a Maine gubernatorial candidate.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [32] Lean DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [33] Lean DJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [34] Lean DAugust 18, 2022
Politico [35] Lean DAugust 12, 2022
RCP [36] TossupJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News [37] Lean DOctober 11, 2022
538 [38] Likely DSeptember 18, 2022
Elections Daily [39] Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Janet Mills (D)
U.S. senators
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Paul LePage (R)
U.S. senators
U.S. Governors
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Janet
Mills (D)		Paul
LePage (R)		Other
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight May 4 – November 6, 2022November 6, 202250%43%7%Mills +7
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Janet
Mills (D)		Paul
LePage (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire November 2–6, 2022922 (LV)± 3.2%52%44%2% [lower-alpha 3] 2%
SurveyUSA October 28 – November 2, 20221,116 (LV)± 3.7%49%43%4% [lower-alpha 4] 5%
Ascend Action October 26–29, 2022471 (LV)± 4.5%55%40%1% [lower-alpha 5] 4%
Pan Atlantic Research October 7–15, 2022400 (LV)± 3.5%49%39%2% [lower-alpha 6] 10%
Emerson College September 19–20, 20221,164 (LV)± 2.8%53%41%2% [lower-alpha 7] 4%
University of New Hampshire September 15–19, 2022694 (LV)± 3.7%53%39%2% [lower-alpha 8] 5%
Maine People's Resource Center September 1–9, 2022814 (RV)± 3.4%49%38%3%10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) May 10–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%51%46%–3%
Pan Atlantic Research April 21 – May 5, 2022824 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%7%4%
Digital Research Inc. March 14 – April 7, 2022622 (RV)± 3.9%42%39%6% [lower-alpha 9] 13%
SurveyUSA (D) [upper-alpha 1] August 24–31, 20211,242 (RV)± 3.5%46%41%–13%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] May 13–19, 2021514 (RV)± 5.3%45%38%3% [lower-alpha 10] 12%

Debates

2022 Maine gubernatorial debates
No.DateOrganizerModeratorLocationLink Democratic Republican Independent
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Janet Mills Paul LePage Sam Hunkler
1 [59] October 4, 2022 Maine Public, Portland Press Herald, Sun Journal Jennifer Rooks Lewiston C-SPAN PPP
2 [60] October 6, 2022Portland Regional Chamber of CommerceQuincy Hentzel Portland YouTube PPN
3 [61] October 24, 2022 Bangor Daily News, WGME-TV Gregg Lagerquist Portland YouTube PPN
4 [62] October 27, 2022Maine State Chamber of Commerce, News Center Maine Pat Callaghan Portland YouTube PPN

Results

2022 Maine gubernatorial election [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Janet Mills (incumbent) 376,934 55.69% +4.80%
Republican Paul LePage 287,30442.45%-0.73%
Independent Sam Hunkler12,5811.86%N/A
Total votes676,819 100.0% N/A
Turnout  %
Registered electors
Democratic hold

By county

By county
Janet Mills
(Democratic)		 Paul LePage
(Republican)		Sam Hunkler
(Independent)		Total
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes
Androscoggin 22,91548.5%23,22049.1%8841.9%47,281
Aroostook 11,58740.2%16,53057.3%5151.8%28,844
Cumberland 112,18868.8%47,20129.0%2,4621.5%162,969
Franklin 7,40649.4%7,17947.9%3432.3%15,001
Hancock 17,44656.7%12,52740.7%5661.8%30,749
Kennebec 30,83850.8%28,36846.7%1,1401.9%60,685
Knox 13,44160.0%8,43037.6%3851.7%22,397
Lincoln 11,85356.3%8,74441.5%3491.6%21,051
Oxford 12,87546.2%14,22951.0%6312.3%27,897
Penobscot 31,84446.2%35,49651.5%1,3031.9%68,983
Piscataquis 3,09837.5%4,96060.0%1581.9%8,266
Sagadahoc 12,41459.3%8,04938.4%3791.8%20,948
Somerset 9,08339.6%13,23357.7%5002.2%22,945
Waldo 11,50854.4%9,09943.0%4001.9%21,146
Washington 6,04640.6%8,16054.8%5533.7%14,892
York 60,77257.9%41,66239.7%1,9941.9%105,010

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Hunkler (I) with 2%
  4. ↑ Hunkler (I) with 4%
  5. ↑ Hunkler (I) with 1%
  6. ↑ Hunkler (I) with 2%
  7. ↑ Hunkler (I) and "someone else" with 1%
  8. ↑ Hunkler (I) and "Other" with 1%
  9. ↑ "Independent candidate" with 6%
  10. ↑ "Other" with 2%; Michael Barden (G) with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Swing Hard Turn Left
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Our Power Maine

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References

  1. ↑ "Statewide Registered and Enrolled Data File (Active Status)" (PDF). Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Statewide Registered and Enrolled Data File (Inactive Status)" (PDF). Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  3. ↑ "Secretary Bellows Announces Official Tabulation of 2022 General Election". Maine Department of the Secretary of State. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  4. ↑ "Republican Paul LePage looks ahead to Main's November governor race against Gov. Janet Mills". PBS NewsHour. June 14, 2022. Retrieved June 15, 2022.
  5. ↑ Hirschkorn, Phil (March 16, 2022). "It's official: Janet Mills versus Paul LePage in Maine gubernatorial race this November". WMTW.
  6. ↑ "Gov. Janet Mills officially launches reelection bid". www.wabi.tv. WABI-TV. March 8, 2022. Retrieved March 9, 2022.
  7. ↑ "China resident John Glowa announces as Democratic candidate for governor". The Town Line. September 15, 2021. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
  8. ↑ "SurveyUSA Mkt Research Study #26081". www.surveyusa.com.
  9. 1 2 3 Howard, Andrew (October 10, 2021). "The fruitless effort to primary Janet Mills". The Maine Monitor. Retrieved October 11, 2021– via Bangor Daily News.
  10. 1 2 "Candidates for Governor". emilyslist.org.
  11. 1 2 "June 14, 2022 - Primary Election – Non-Ranked Choice Offices". Department of the Secretary of State-Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions.
  12. ↑ Shepherd, Michael (April 29, 2020). "Paul LePage says 'I am going to challenge Janet Mills' in 2022". Bangor Daily News . Archived from the original on May 2, 2020. Retrieved April 29, 2020.
  13. ↑ Collins, Steve (January 19, 2021). "Anti-gay activist Michael Heath says he's running for governor" . Sun-Journal . Archived from the original on May 5, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2021.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Thistle, Scott (September 22, 2021). "LePage makes a return to the campaign stage". Press Herald. Retrieved September 22, 2021.
  15. 1 2 DiStaso, John (November 6, 2020). "NH Primary Source: Did Sununu just announce a 2022 US Senate run against Hassan? No, but …". Archived from the original on November 7, 2020. Retrieved January 19, 2021.
  16. ↑ Leader, Kevin Landrigan New Hampshire Union. "Sununu says 'definitely open' to 2022 Senate bid". UnionLeader.com. Retrieved February 20, 2021.
  17. ↑ Shepherd, Michael (July 22, 2022). "Paul LePage and Jared Golden win Maine police group's backing in major split". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved July 23, 2022.
  18. ↑ Piper, Jessica (May 28, 2022). "A 3rd candidate joins Janet Mills and Paul LePage on the November ballot". Bangor Daily News.
  19. ↑ Piper, Jessica; Shepherd, Michael; Andrews, Caitlin (July 2, 2021). "Paul LePage versus Janet Mills is on. An anti-CMP corridor candidate might join them". Bangor Daily News . Archived from the original on July 11, 2021. Retrieved August 12, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Former Sen. Saviello says he won't run for governor". MPBN . February 3, 2022. Retrieved February 4, 2022.
  21. ↑ Strimling, Ethan; Harriman, Phil (April 21, 2022). "Opinion: A red wave may be coming to Maine". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  22. 1 2 Billings, Randy (May 3, 2022). "Gov. Mills pledges to protect abortion access; LePage emphasizes his support of restrictions". Press Herald. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  23. ↑ Jason, PAFUNDI (January 16, 2016). "Abortion opponents rally in Augusta". Press Herald. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  24. 1 2 Wong, Amy B (October 5, 2022). "Maine GOP gubernatorial hopeful struggles with abortion questions in debate". The Washington Post.
  25. ↑ McFadden, Alyce; Bender, Michael C. (October 5, 2022). "LePage Stumbles on Abortion Questioning in Maine Governor's Debate". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  26. ↑ Billings, Randy (September 27, 2022). "Gov. Mills widens fundraising advantage over LePage". Press Herald. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  27. ↑ Randy BillingsStaff Writer (October 28, 2022). "Spending in Maine gubernatorial race surges to new record". Press Herald. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  28. ↑ Stein, Adrienne; Bourgault, Matthew (November 9, 2022). "Gov. Mills declares victory, LePage not conceding defeat". WGME. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  29. ↑ "Former Gov. LePage concedes, cites 'grave' concerns over inflation for Maine". WMTW. November 9, 2022. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  30. ↑ "Paul LePage says Mainers made the wrong choice following failed bid for Blaine House". WABI-TV. November 9, 2022. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  31. ↑ Woodard, Colin (November 13, 2022). "Midterms reveal Republican decline across large swaths of Maine". Press Herald. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  32. ↑ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  33. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  34. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  35. ↑ "Maine Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  36. ↑ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  37. ↑ "Fox News Power Rankings: Dems, GOP locked in close battle as final month of campaigning begins". Fox News. October 11, 2022. Retrieved October 16, 2022.
  38. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  39. ↑ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  40. ↑ Billings, Randy (September 30, 2022). "Sen. Angus King endorses Gov. Janet Mills in bid for second term". Lewiston Sun Journal .
  41. ↑ "Maine AFL-CIO Endorses Janet Mills for Governor". maineaflocio.org.
  42. 1 2 3 4 "Janet Mills' Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  43. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Maine Gov. Janet Mills for Reelection". hrc.org. June 14, 2022.
  44. ↑ "Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund Endorses Governor Janet Mills over Paul LePage" (PDF). npeaction.org.
  45. ↑ "Maine Credit Union League Endorses Janet T. Mills for Governor". mainecul.org. September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  46. ↑ "Take It From Maine Conservation Voters: Paul LePage Is A Threat To Maine's Environment". www.mainedems.org. June 2, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  47. ↑ "We Strongly Endorse Janet Mills for Governor of Maine". maineconservtion.org. October 6, 2018.
  48. ↑ "Planned Parenthood endorses Maine Gov. Janet Mills for reelection citing record on abortion rights". wtmw.com. July 28, 2022.
  49. ↑ "2022 Endorsed Candidates". www.rachesactionnetwork.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  50. ↑ "Maine workers endorse Governor Janet Mills for reelection". mseaseiu.org.
  51. ↑ "Sierra Club Maine 2022 Endorsed Candidates". www.sierra club.com. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  52. ↑ "Governor Mills Awarded Endorsements from Two Major Non-profits". munjoyhillnews.net. September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  53. ↑ "All Endorsed Candidates". womenspoliticalcommittee.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  54. ↑ "Editorial: Janet Mills should be reelected as Maine's governor". October 27, 2022.
  55. ↑ "Florida Gov. DeSantis endorses LePage, other Republican candidates". November 3, 2022.
  56. ↑ Landrigan, Kevin (March 1, 2021). "Sununu says 'definitely open' to 2022 Senate bid". UnionLeader.com. Retrieved February 20, 2021.
  57. ↑ "Va. Gov. Youngkin to travel to Maine to endorse GOP gubernatorial candidate".
  58. ↑ Mundry, Jackie (July 27, 2022). "Mills, LePage pick up major endorsements this week in Maine". WCSH . Retrieved August 5, 2022.
  59. ↑ Miller, Kevin (October 5, 2022). "Mills, LePage spar over abortion, immigration and economy in first televised debate". Maine Public . Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  60. ↑ Overton, Penelope; Billings, Randy (October 6, 2022). "Mills and LePage take on economic issues, and each other, in Portland debate". Portland Press Herald . Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 17, 2022.
  61. ↑ Miller, Kevin (October 25, 2022). "Behind in the polls, LePage ratchets up attacks on Mills during second TV debate". Maine Public . Archived from the original on November 1, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  62. ↑ "LePage and Mills face off in Voice of the Voter forum. Here's what they said". News Center Maine . October 28, 2022. Archived from the original on October 30, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
  63. ↑ "Maine Secretary of State: November 8, 2022 General Election- Non-Ranked Choice Offices". November 30, 2022. Retrieved November 30, 2022.
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