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Warnock: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Walker: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | ||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Georgia |
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8. [1] Warnock's win was the only statewide victory for Democrats in Georgia in 2022.
Warnock, who won a shortened term to the seat in a 2020–21 special election, was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913 in which both major party nominees were Black. [2] [3] [lower-alpha 1]
In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff. [4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms. [5] [6] It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin.
Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery. [7] [8]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Tamara Johnson-Shealey | Raphael Warnock | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | April 1–3, 2022 | 453 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 6% | 85% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Raphael Warnock (incumbent) | 702,610 | 96.04% | |
Democratic | Tamara Johnson-Shealey | 28,984 | 3.96% | |
Total votes | 731,594 | 100.0% |
2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No. | Date | Organizer | Location | Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | Source | ||||||
Gary Black | Josh Clark | Kelvin King | Jonathan McColumn | Latham Saddler | Herschel Walker | ||||||
1 | April 9, 2022 | Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican Party | Gainesville | P | P | P | P | P | A | [51] | |
2 | May 3, 2022 | Atlanta Press Club, Georgia Public Broadcasting | Atlanta | P | P | P | P | P | A | [52] |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Gary Black | Josh Clark | Kelvin King | Jonathan McColumn | Latham Saddler | Herschel Walker | Other [lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | May 12–23, 2022 | May 24, 2022 | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 9.0% | 64.7% | 12.9% | Walker +55.7 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Gary Black | Josh Clark | Kelvin King | Jonathan McColumn | Latham Saddler | Herschel Walker | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 21–23, 2022 | 1,074 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 67% | – | 4% |
Landmark Communications (R) | May 22, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 12% | 60% | – | 9% |
Fox News | May 12–16, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 66% | 1% | 11% |
ARW Strategies (R) | April 30 – May 1, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 59% | – | 23% |
SurveyUSA | April 22–27, 2022 | 559 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 62% | – | 21% |
University of Georgia | April 10–22, 2022 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 66% | – | 23% |
Landmark Communications (R) | April 9–10, 2022 | 660 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 5% | 64% | – | 14% |
Spry Strategies (R) | April 6–10, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 7% | 2% | 4% | – | 2% | 64% | – | 21% |
University of Georgia | March 20 – April 8, 2022 | ~329 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 64% | – | 24% |
Emerson College | April 1–3, 2022 | 509 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 57% | 2% [lower-alpha 4] | 16% |
Fox News | March 2–6, 2022 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 8% | 1% | 3% | – | 2% | 66% | 1% | 16% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | February 28 – March 1, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 6% | 3% | 4% | – | 3% | 63% | 2% | 20% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 3% | 70% | – | 19% |
Quinnipiac University | January 19–24, 2022 | 666 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 6% | 0% | 2% | – | 1% | 81% | 0% [lower-alpha 5] | 9% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [upper-alpha 1] | October 11–14, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 6% | – | 1% | – | 1% | 74% | 2% [lower-alpha 6] | 16% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 2–4, 2021 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 3% | 76% | – | 13% |
Fabrizio Lee (R) [upper-alpha 2] | August 11–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 5% | – | 2% | – | 1% | 54% | 3% [lower-alpha 7] | 35% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Doug Collins | Marjorie Taylor Greene | Kelly Loeffler | Herschel Walker | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OnMessage Inc. (R) | March 14–15, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 7% | 22% | 27% | 11% |
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV) [lower-alpha 8] | – | 33% | – | 24% | 33% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Doug Collins | Kelly Loeffler | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OnMessage Inc. (R) | March 14–15, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 36% | 10% |
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV) [lower-alpha 8] | – | 52% | 32% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Herschel Walker | Doug Collins | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV) [lower-alpha 8] | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Herschel Walker | Kelly Loeffler | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV) [lower-alpha 8] | – | 62% | 26% | 11% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Herschel Walker | 803,560 | 68.18% | |
Republican | Gary Black | 157,370 | 13.35% | |
Republican | Latham Saddler | 104,471 | 8.86% | |
Republican | Josh Clark | 46,693 | 3.96% | |
Republican | Kelvin King | 37,930 | 3.22% | |
Republican | Jonathan McColumn | 28,601 | 2.43% | |
Total votes | 1,178,625 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [70] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
Inside Elections [71] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
Politico [73] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
RCP [74] | Tossup | February 24, 2022 |
Fox News [75] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
DDHQ [76] | Tossup | October 25, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight [77] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
The Economist [78] | Tossup | November 1, 2022 |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
Raphael Warnock | Herschel Walker | Chase Oliver | |||||
1 | Oct. 14, 2022 | Nexstar Media Group | Buck Lanford Tina Tyus-Shaw | P | P | N | |
2 | Oct. 16, 2022 | Georgia Public Broadcasting | Scott Slade | [79] | P | A | P |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Raphael Warnock (D) | Herschel Walker (R) | Other [lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | October 29 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.4% | 48.8% | 3.8% | Walker +1.4 |
FiveThirtyEight | October 13 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 46.7% | 47.7% | 5.69% | Walker +1.0 |
270ToWin | November 4–7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 47.3% | 48.5% | 5.1% | Walker +1.2 |
Average | 47.1% | 48.3% | 4.6% | Walker +1.2 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Raphael Warnock (D) | Herschel Walker (R) | Chase Oliver (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel | November 5–7, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 9] | – |
Landmark Communications | November 4–7, 2022 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 47% | 5% | – | 2% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 49% | 1% | – | 4% |
Research Co. | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 47% | 1% | – | 5% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 4–6, 2022 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 50% | 2% | – | 2% |
Data for Progress (D) | November 2–6, 2022 | 1,474 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% | – | – |
Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 579 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | 1% | 2% [lower-alpha 10] | – |
East Carolina University | November 2–5, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% | – | – |
Amber Integrated (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 3% | – | 4% |
Remington Research Group (R) | November 1–2, 2022 | 1,150 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 49% | 2% | – | 4% |
Echleon Insights | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 45% | 49% | 3% | – | 3% |
45% | 52% | – | – | 3% | ||||
Marist College | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,168 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 45% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 11] | 6% |
1,009 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 48% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 11] | 3% | ||
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | 2% | – | 5% |
SurveyUSA | October 29 – November 2, 2022 | 1,171 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 43% | 3% | – | 5% |
Patinkin Research Strategies (D) [upper-alpha 4] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 45% | 4% | – | 2% |
Emerson College | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 12] | 2% |
50% | 48% | 2% | 1% [lower-alpha 12] | – | ||||
Fox News | October 26–30, 2022 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 13] | 6% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 27, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 48% | 2% | <1% [lower-alpha 14] | 5% |
Siena College/NYT | October 24–27, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 46% | 1% | – | 4% |
University of Georgia | October 16–27, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 46% | 5% | – | 5% |
co/efficient (R) | October 24–25, 2022 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | 3% | – | 6% |
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] | October 22–25, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 3% | – | – |
Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 23–24, 2022 | 1,053 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 15] | 4% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [upper-alpha 5] | October 21–23, 2022 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 49% | 5% | – | – |
East Carolina University | October 13–18, 2022 | 905 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 47% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 16] | 3% |
Landmark Communications | October 15–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 3% | – | 2% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 13–17, 2022 | 984 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 3% | – | 3% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 16, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 43% | 4% | 1% [lower-alpha 17] | 6% |
Wick Insights (R) | October 8–14, 2022 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 46% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 18] | 5% |
Civiqs | October 8–11, 2022 | 717 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | – | 3% [lower-alpha 18] | 1% |
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] | October 8–11, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 4% | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 8–11, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – | 5% |
Quinnipiac University | October 7–10, 2022 | 1,157 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 45% | – | 1% [lower-alpha 19] | 1% |
Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 12] | 4% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 4, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 44% | 3% | 1% [lower-alpha 17] | 5% |
SurveyUSA | September 30 – October 4, 2022 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 38% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 20] | 7% |
University of Georgia | September 25 – October 4, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 43% | 4% | – | 6% |
Fox News | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,011 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 21] | 7% |
Data for Progress (D) | September 16–20, 2022 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 4% | – | 3% |
YouGov/CBS News | September 14–19, 2022 | 1,178 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 49% | – | – | 0% |
University of Georgia | September 5–16, 2022 | 861 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 46% | – | 3% | 7% |
Marist College | September 12–15, 2022 | 1,202 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 4% | – | 7% |
992 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 4% | ||
Kurt Jetta (D) [upper-alpha 6] | September 9–12, 2022 | 949 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 37% | – | – | 13% |
542 (LV) | 49% | 45% | – | – | 7% | |||
Quinnipiac University | September 8–12, 2022 | 1,278 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 52% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 751 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | – | 10% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 6–7, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 4% | – | 5% |
Emerson College | August 28–29, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 46% | – | 4% | 7% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | August 24–27, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 3% | – | 3% |
Phillips Academy | August 3–7, 2022 | 971 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – | 11% |
Research Affiliates (D) [upper-alpha 7] | July 26 – August 1, 2022 | 420 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | July 26–27, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
Fox News | July 22–26, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 1% | 9% |
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 8] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 46% | – | 3% | 9% |
SurveyUSA | July 21–24, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 48% | 39% | – | 5% | 8% |
University of Georgia | July 14–22, 2022 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 43% | 3% | – | 8% |
Beacon Research (D) [upper-alpha 9] | July 5–20, 2022 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | – | 2% | 11% |
602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | – | 1% | 7% | ||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | July 5–11, 2022 | 1,197 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 47% | – | – | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) | July 1–6, 2022 | 1,131 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | – | – | 4% |
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 10] | June 24–27, 2022 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | June 23–27, 2022 | 1,497 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 54% | 44% | – | 0% | 3% |
Moore Information Group (R) [upper-alpha 3] | June 11–16, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | – | 6% |
East Carolina University | June 6–9, 2022 | 868 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 47% | – | 2% | 4% |
SurveyUSA | April 22–27, 2022 | 1,278 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | – | – | 5% |
Grassroots Targeting (R) [upper-alpha 1] | April 3–16, 2022 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 41% | 51% | – | – | 8% |
Emerson College | April 1–3, 2022 | 1,013 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | – | – | 6% |
Blueprint Polling (D) | March 2–8, 2022 | 662 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 49% | – | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 10] | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | – | 3% |
Wick Insights (R) | February 2–6, 2022 | 1,290 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 8% |
Quinnipiac University | January 19–24, 2022 | 1,702 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 49% | – | 0% | 3% |
University of Georgia | January 13–24, 2022 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 47% | – | 1% | 8% |
NRSC (R) [upper-alpha 11] | December 4–8, 2021 | 831 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | – | – | 3% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 39% | – | 2% | 8% |
733 (LV) | 48% | 42% | – | 2% | 6% | |||
Public Policy Polling (D) | August 4–5, 2021 | 622 (V) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 46% | – | – | 6% |
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | March 7–9, 2021 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 48% | – | 3% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Raphael Warnock (D) | Gary Black (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Georgia | January 13–24, 2022 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | August 4–5, 2021 | 622 (V) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Raphael Warnock (D) | Kelly Loeffler (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | August 4–5, 2021 | 622 (V) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | March 7–9, 2021 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 41% | 8% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Raphael Warnock (D) | Doug Collins (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R) | March 7–9, 2021 | 1,093 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grassroots Targeting (R) [upper-alpha 1] | April 3–16, 2022 | 2,500 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 203,130 votes, while Warnock did 132,444 votes better than Abrams. [142]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Raphael Warnock (incumbent) | 1,946,117 | 49.44% | +1.05% | |
Republican | Herschel Walker | 1,908,442 | 48.49% | −0.88% | |
Libertarian | Chase Oliver | 81,365 | 2.07% | +1.35% | |
Total votes | 3,935,924 | 100.0% |
Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate. [lower-alpha 22] [144] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary. [145] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high. [146] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out. [147] This was the fifth runoff in the state's history.
The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks. [148] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25). [lower-alpha 23] [151] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26; [152] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21, [153] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23. [154] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday, [155] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb. [156]
While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority, [1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations. [157] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend, [lower-alpha 24] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward. [157] [158] [159]
According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat. [160]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [161] | Tossup | November 18, 2022 |
Inside Elections [162] | Tilt D | December 1, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [163] | Lean D | December 5, 2022 |
DDHQ [164] | Lean D | December 6, 2022 |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Raphael Warnock (D) | Herschel Walker (R) | Undecided [lower-alpha 3] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | November 11 – December 4, 2022 | December 5, 2022 | 51.0% | 47.3% | 1.5% | Warnock +3.7 |
FiveThirtyEight | November 26 – December 5, 2022 | December 5, 2022 | 51.1% | 47.2% | 2.1% | Warnock +3.9 |
270ToWin | November 22 – December 5, 2022 | December 5, 2022 | 51.0% | 47.7% | 1.5% | Warnock +3.3 |
Average | 51.0% | 47.4% | 1.7% | Warnock +3.6 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Raphael Warnock (D) | Herschel Walker (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | December 3–5, 2022 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
Data for Progress (D) | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,229 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
InsiderAdvantage (R) | December 4, 2022 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 48% | – | 1% |
Landmark Communications | December 4, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% |
Mitchell Research | December 4, 2022 | 625 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Patriot Polling | November 30 – December 2, 2022 | 818 (RV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 4% |
Emerson College | November 28–30, 2022 | 888 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 49% | – | – |
49% | 47% | – | 4% | ||||
SurveyUSA | November 26–30, 2022 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
50% | 46% | – | 4% | ||||
CNN/SSRS | November 25–29, 2022 | 1,886 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% [lower-alpha 25] | – |
1,184 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 48% | 1% [lower-alpha 26] | – | ||
UMass Lowell/YouGov | November 18–28, 2022 | 1,300 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 46% | – | 2% |
Phillips Academy | November 26–27, 2022 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
Frederick Polls (D) [upper-alpha 12] | November 23–26, 2022 | 939 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | November 11–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Raphael Warnock (incumbent) | 1,820,633 | 51.40% | +0.36% | |
Republican | Herschel Walker | 1,721,244 | 48.60% | −0.36% | |
Total votes | 3,541,877 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold | |||||
Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts. [166]
District | Warnock | Walker | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 44% | 56% | Buddy Carter |
2nd | 56% | 44% | Sanford Bishop |
3rd | 36% | 64% | Drew Ferguson |
4th | 82% | 18% | Hank Johnson |
5th | 87% | 13% | Nikema Williams |
6th | 44% | 56% | Lucy McBath (117th Congress) |
Rich McCormick (118th Congress) | |||
7th | 66% | 34% | Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress) |
Lucy McBath (118th Congress) | |||
8th | 35% | 65% | Austin Scott |
9th | 31% | 69% | Andrew Clyde |
10th | 39% | 61% | Jody Hice (117th Congress) |
Mike Collins (118th Congress) | |||
11th | 43% | 57% | Barry Loudermilk |
12th | 44% | 56% | Rick Allen |
13th | 84% | 16% | David Scott |
14th | 32% | 68% | Marjorie Taylor Greene |
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