2022 Russian debt default

Last updated
Russian bonds, Inverted yield curves to tame inflation during their wars (Russo-Georgian War, Russo-Ukrainian War, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine)
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
20 year bond
10 year bond
1 year bond
3 month bond Russian bonds.webp
Russian bonds, Inverted yield curves to tame inflation during their wars (Russo-Georgian War, Russo-Ukrainian War, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine)
  20 year bond
  10 year bond
  1 year bond
  3 month bond

Russia defaulted on part of its foreign currency denominated debt on June 27, 2022 (because the money got stuck in Euroclear [1] ), its first such default since 1918 (in 1998 it was ruble-denominated bonds). [2] [3] Before that, on 2 June, Russia defaulted on the 30-day interest, incorrectly not counting interest for the grace period, [4] but a failure to pay $1.9 million was not sufficient to trigger a cross-default across other instruments, because the minimum threshold is an amount of at least $75 million, according to documents for other Russian eurobonds. [5] The default occurred due to technicalities as the payment in dollars was impossible due to the sanctions by US and EU authorities, [6] but did not mark an actual lack of capability to pay its debts.

Contents

Background

The United States Treasury Department in February 2022 moved to cut off Russia from the global economy after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, announcing that it would immobilize Russian central bank assets that are held in the United States and impose sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund. [7] The $284 billion or more in frozen assets is nearly half of the $585 billion that Russia had stockpiled as of June 2021. [8]

The Biden administration initially allowed Russia to continue to repurpose the substantial funds it has kept in U.S. financial institutions to make required payments on its sovereign debt. But on April 4, the Treasury Department banned Russia from withdrawing funds held in US banks to pay off its debt obligations. [9]

On 4 April 2022, Russia technically defaulted on its foreign debt by failing to pay its obligations in US dollars (and after the grace period it actually defaulted because it did not pay 30 days grace period interest of around 1.9 million USD). On 8 April, the credit agency S&P Global predicted that Russia will inevitably be in "selective default on foreign currency obligations" [10] (NR rating after CC rating [11] ) because it tried to pay obligations on dollar denominated debt in rubles, which could not be converted into "dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts", since every government can just "print money" in the currency it controls. A selective default occurs if a borrower defaults on specific (foreign, or more accurately, "foreign currency") obligations but not all of its debt. [12] [13] [14]

Two dollar denominated bonds issued by the Russian government matured on 4 April 2022. [12] On 5 April, Russia attempted to pay its bondholders with dollars from $600 million of reserves held in US banks, but these were blocked by the US as part of the sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. [15]

The Russian government had a 30-day grace period to meet its contractual obligations, but S&P Global stated that it expects that investors will not be able to convert rubles into “dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts” and sanctions will reduce Russia's "willingness and technical abilities to honor the terms and conditions" of the loans. [12]

Previously, on 16 March, Russia managed to pay through a new method [16] (acting on a general license issued by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control, which was valid until May 25) and thus avoided technical default, [17] [18] it also threatened to sue if forced into default [19] [20] or use cryptocurrency. [21]

Earlier, Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that Russia would repay its foreign currency debt only if its foreign currency accounts were unfrozen. [22] On 29 April, Russia's Finance Ministry said that it made an attempt to repay US$649.2 million on Russia-2022 and Russia-2042 Eurobonds (in dollars through non-sanctioned Bank Dom.RF JSC  [ ru ] to Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and then to Citibank N.A., London branch [23] ), but it was not clear if the payments would reach the recipients and Russia would avoid default. [24] On 4 May, US and UK regulators cleared the payments [25] with a technical date of 2 May. [4]

Five days before the May 25 license expired, Russia again managed to pay on Russia-2026 and Russia-2036 Eurobonds but did not avoid falling into the grace period, [26] because its money got stuck in Euroclear (that was classified as an actual default by Moody's 30 days later on 27 June). [1] It paid US$71.25 million for a dollar-denominated eurobond and 26.5 million euros ($28 million) for euro-denominated notes. The next payments after the due on 27 May one were $235 million across two Eurobonds due on June 23. [27] [28]

The 30-day grace period still required interest to be paid, so at the end of May the money paid on 29 April (and got into Citibank N.A. on 2 May) was about 1.9 million USD short, and the technical default from 4 April was converted into a real default, as recognized when 13 members of the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee for Europe voted on 1 June, only one of them (Citibank N.A.) voting in favour of Russia. [4]

A default for the purposes of CDS contracts "occurs once the determination committee votes for a credit event, which has now happened," said Gabriele Foa, portfolio manager of the Global Credit Opportunities Fund at Algebris. [29] "Of course…it is a very small amount, so the definition of default is very technical. If, as it seems, it is not possible for foreign investors to receive dollars starting May 25, the default will soon be more material."

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov dismissed the default status as a "farce", since Russia has plenty of dollar and euro funds to repay the debt. Associated Press reported that the official default on Russian's foreign debt would take time to be confirmed. Financial analysts described Russia's situation as unique, since it has extensive amounts of cash to fulfill its debt obligations and very small foreign debt compared to USA. [30] [31]

Russian default on foreign debt

On Monday 27 June 2022, Moody's rating agency declared that Russia defaulted on its foreign debt after missing a payment deadline the preceding Sunday. [32]

Post default events

In September 2023 a Russian USD denominated bond with a value of $3 billion became repayable. Repayment was made in rubles, with the Russian National Wealth Fund selling currencies to offset any bond owners who needed to sell their rubles, so supporting the ruble FX rate. [33]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government bond</span> Bond issued by a government

A government bond or sovereign bond is a form of bond issued by a government to support public spending. It generally includes a commitment to pay periodic interest, called coupon payments, and to repay the face value on the maturity date.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian ruble</span> Currency of the Russian Federation

The ruble or rouble is the currency of the Russian Federation. The ruble is subdivided into 100 kopecks. It is used in Russia as well as in the parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation and in Russian-occupied parts of Georgia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government debt</span> Total amount of debt owed to lenders by a government/state

A country's gross government debt is the financial liabilities of the government sector. Changes in government debt over time reflect primarily borrowing due to past government deficits. A deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed revenues. Government debt may be owed to domestic residents, as well as to foreign residents. If owed to foreign residents, that quantity is included in the country's external debt.

A eurobond is an international bond that is denominated in a currency not native to the country where it is issued. They are also called external bonds. They are usually categorised according to the currency in which they are issued: eurodollar, euroyen, and so on. The name became somewhat misleading with the advent of the euro currency in 1999; eurobonds were created in the 1960s, before the euro existed, and thus the etymology is to "European bonds" rather than "bonds denominated in the Euro currency".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Argentine debt restructuring</span> Process following Argentinas Great Depression

The Argentine debt restructuring is a process of debt restructuring by Argentina that began on January 14, 2005, and allowed it to resume payment on 76% of the US$82 billion in sovereign bonds that defaulted in 2001 at the depth of the worst economic crisis in the nation's history. A second debt restructuring in 2010 brought the percentage of bonds under some form of repayment to 93%, though ongoing disputes with holdouts remained. Bondholders who participated in the restructuring settled for repayments of around 30% of face value and deferred payment terms, and began to be paid punctually; the value of their nearly worthless bonds also began to rise. The remaining 7% of bondholders were later repaid 25% less than they were demanding, after centre-right and US-aligned leader Mauricio Macri came to power in 2015.

In finance, a currency swap is an interest rate derivative (IRD). In particular it is a linear IRD, and one of the most liquid benchmark products spanning multiple currencies simultaneously. It has pricing associations with interest rate swaps (IRSs), foreign exchange (FX) rates, and FX swaps (FXSs).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1998 Russian financial crisis</span> Mid-1998 economic crisis in Russia

The Russian financial crisis began in Russia on 17 August 1998. It resulted in the Russian government and the Russian Central Bank devaluing the ruble and defaulting on its debt. The crisis had severe impacts on the economies of many neighboring countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Euroclear</span> Belgium-based financial services company

Euroclear is a Belgium-based financial services company that specialises in the settlement of securities transactions, as well as the safekeeping and asset servicing of these securities. It was founded in 1968 as part of J.P. Morgan & Co. to settle trades on the then developing eurobond market. It is one of two European international central securities depositories.

In finance, an asset–liability mismatch occurs when the financial terms of an institution's assets and liabilities do not correspond. Several types of mismatches are possible. An asset-liability mismatch presents a material risk at institutions with significant debt exposure, such as banks or sovereign governments. A significant mismatch may lead to insolvency or illiquidity, which can cause financial failure. Such risks were among the principal causes of economic crises such as the 1980s Latin American Debt Crisis, the 2007 Subprime Mortgage Crisis, the U.S. Savings and Loan Crisis, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">VEB.RF</span> Russian investment corporation

VEB.RF, or VEB, is a Russian state development corporation and investment company. It was founded in 2007 as a development institute. It has financed more than 300 projects.

A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full when due. Cessation of due payments may either be accompanied by that government's formal declaration that it will not pay its debts (repudiation), or it may be unannounced. A credit rating agency will take into account in its gradings capital, interest, extraneous and procedural defaults, and failures to abide by the terms of bonds or other debt instruments.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency intervention</span> Monetary policy operation

Currency intervention, also known as foreign exchange market intervention or currency manipulation, is a monetary policy operation. It occurs when a government or central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for its own domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and trade policy.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of its centrally-planned economy, the Russian Federation succeeded it under president Boris Yeltsin. The Russian government used policies of shock therapy to liberalize the economy as part of the transition to a market economy, causing a sustained economic recession. GDP per capita levels returned to their 1991 levels by the mid-2000s. The economy of Russia is much more stable today than in the early 1990s, but inflation still remains an issue. Historically and currently, the Russian economy has differed sharply from major developed economies because of its weak legal system, underdevelopment of modern economic activities, technological backwardness, and lower living standards.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International use of the U.S. dollar</span> Use of US dollars around the world

The United States dollar was established as the world's foremost reserve currency by the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. It claimed this status from sterling after the devastation of two world wars and the massive spending of the United Kingdom's gold reserves. Despite all links to gold being severed in 1971, the dollar continues to be the world's foremost reserve currency. Furthermore, the Bretton Woods Agreement also set up the global post-war monetary system by setting up rules, institutions and procedures for conducting international trade and accessing the global capital markets using the US dollar.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian financial crisis (2014–2016)</span> Period of devaluation of the Russian rouble, linked to the Crimean conflict

The financial crisis in Russia in 2014–2016 was the result of the sharp devaluation of the Russian rouble beginning in the second half of 2014. A decline in confidence in the Russian economy caused investors to sell off their Russian assets, which led to a decline in the value of the Russian rouble and sparked fears of a financial crisis. The lack of confidence in the Russian economy stemmed from at least two major sources. The first is the fall in the price of oil in 2014. Crude oil, a major export of Russia, declined in price by nearly 50% between its yearly high in June 2014 and 16 December 2014. The second is the result of international economic sanctions imposed on Russia following Russia's annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas and the broader Russo-Ukrainian War.

The national debt of Turkey is the entire stock of direct, fixed-term, contractual, financial obligations of the state of the Republic of Turkey that are outstanding on a particular date.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dedollarisation</span> Replacing US dollar for other currencies

Dedollarisation refers to countries reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, medium of exchange or as a unit of account.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lebanese liquidity crisis</span> Financial crisis in Lebanon

The Lebanese liquidity crisis is an ongoing financial crisis affecting Lebanon, that became fully apparent in August 2019, and was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in Lebanon, the 2020 Beirut port explosion and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country experienced liquidity shortages in the years prior to 2019 but the full extent of the fragility of the economy were concealed through financial engineering by the governor of the central bank. Lebanon's crisis was worsened by United States sanctions targeting Syria's government and Iran-backed Hezbollah.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Unfriendly countries list</span> List of countries considered by Russia to be unfriendly

The unfriendly countries list is a list of countries published by the Russian government that it says "commit unfriendly actions against Russia, Russian companies and citizens". Countries added to the list are subject to certain restrictions related to their relationships with Russia, including trade and currency restrictions and personnel limits in the listed countries' diplomatic missions in Russia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022–2023 Russia–European Union gas dispute</span> Fossil fuel financing-related conflicts

The Russia–EU gas dispute flared up in March 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Russia and the major EU countries clashed over the issue of payment for natural gas pipelined to Europe by Russia's Gazprom, amidst sanctions on Russia that were expanded in response to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In June, Russia cut the flow of gas to Germany by more than half, and in September of that year it stopped it altogether. On 26 September 2022, three of the four pipes of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines ruptured with evidence of sabotage.

References

  1. 1 2 "Investors have not received Russian Eurobond payments because of third-party actions; there is no default according to issue documentation - Finance Ministry". interfax.com. Retrieved 1 March 2023.
  2. Giulia Morpurgo; Libby Cherry (June 27, 2022). "Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918". Bloomberg News.
  3. King, Ben; Jordan, Dearbail (27 June 2022). "Russia in debt default as payment deadline passes". BBC. Retrieved 27 June 2022.
  4. 1 2 3 "Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee » The Russian Federation". www.cdsdeterminationscommittees.org. Retrieved 2022-06-03.
  5. "Russia Fails to Meet Bond Obligations, Triggering Swaps Payout". Bloomberg.com. 1 June 2022. Retrieved 1 March 2023.
  6. "West pushes Russia into its first foreign debt default since 1918". CNN. 28 June 2022. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  7. Rappeport, Alan (28 February 2022). "U.S. Escalates sanctions with a freeze on Russian central bank assets". The New York Times.
  8. Hersher, Monica; Murphy, Joe (17 March 2022). "Graphic: Russia stored large amounts of money with many countries. Hundreds of billions of it are now frozen". The Data Point. NBC News .
  9. Stein, Jeff; Gregg, Aaron (5 April 2022). "U.S. impedes Russia's debt payments as new sanctions package emerges". The Washington Post. ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved 2022-04-30.
  10. "S&P cuts Russia's foreign currency rating to 'selective default'". Reuters. 2022-04-09. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  11. "S&P cuts Russia's ratings to 'CC' on debt default risk". Reuters. 2022-03-17. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  12. 1 2 3 Cooban, Anna (11 April 2022). "Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P". CNN Business.
  13. Nelson, Eshe (April 10, 2022). "S&P Global Places Russia in 'Selective Default'". The New York Times.
  14. Wile, Rob (11 April 2022). "Russia slips into 'selective default' on some foreign debt". NBC News.
  15. Davies, Megan; Alper, Alexandra (April 5, 2022). "U.S. stops Russian bond payments, raising risk of default". Reuters.
  16. Утвержден временный порядок исполнения государственных долговых обязательств Российской Федерации в иностранной валюте. minfin.gov.ru (in Russian). Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  17. "Press review: Russia avoids technical default and US may remove IRGC from terror list". TASS. 18 March 2022. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  18. "Russia Avoids Technical Default, But Faces $4.6bn In Payments for 2022" . Market News. 2022-03-18. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  19. Tan, Huileng (11 April 2022). "Russia says it will sue if forced into a default — which would be the country's first external sovereign debt default in over a century". Business Insider. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  20. Mozée, Carla (11 April 2022). "Russia plans to sue to regain access to $300 billion in frozen foreign currency reserves". Markets Insider. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  21. Evans, Brian (22 April 2022). "Russian central bank chief denies Moscow is at risk of default and touts digital ruble for international payments". Business Insider. Retrieved 2022-04-29.
  22. "Russia's Finance Ministry fulfils Eurobonds obligations for $649.2 mln in rubles". TASS. 6 April 2022.
  23. "Russia Says It Made Sovereign Bond Payments in U.S. Dollars". Bloomberg.com. 2022-04-29. Retrieved 2022-05-04.
  24. Clinch, Matt; Smith, Elliot (2022-04-29). "Russia aims to avert historic debt default with last-ditch dollar bond payments". CNBC. Retrieved 2022-04-30.
  25. Cherry, Libby; Morpurgo, Giulia; Pronina, Lyubov (2022-05-03). "Russia Dodges Default as Some Investors Receive Dollar Funds". Bloomberg.com. Retrieved 2022-05-04.
  26. "Russia's Whipsaw Week Ends With Default Clock Ticking". Bloomberg.com. 2022-05-28. Retrieved 2022-08-28.
  27. Strohecker, Karin (2022-05-20). "Russia makes early debt payment dash to dodge default". Reuters. Retrieved 2022-05-25.
  28. "Update: New Mechanism Established for Repayment of Russian Sovereign Debt". www.morganlewis.com. Retrieved 2023-03-01.
  29. "Teetering on default, Russia misses $1.9-million payment, committee determines". RAPPLER. 2 June 2022. Retrieved 3 June 2022.
  30. "Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt for First Time Since 1918". Bloomberg News. Retrieved 27 June 2022.
  31. "What's the impact of a Russian debt default?" AP News. Retrieved 27 June 2022.
  32. Strohecker, Karin; Shalal, Andrea; Chan, Emily (27 June 2022). "Russia in historic default as Ukraine sanctions cut off payments". Reuters . Retrieved 27 June 2022.
  33. "Bank of Russia comments on FX market operations". 6 September 2023.