2004 United States presidential election in Oregon

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

2004 United States presidential election in Oregon

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Turnout	68%
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 943,163 866,831 Percentage 51.35% 47.19%
County Results Kerry   50-60%   70-80% Bush   50-60%   60-70%   70-80%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Oregon was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 4.16 point margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations considered the state a tossup or leaning Kerry. A moderate amount of campaigning took place here, as Kerry won every poll after October 14, each with between 47% and 53% of the vote. Despite the state having been very competitive and being barely won by Al Gore four years earlier, Oregon is a consistent blue state that no Republican has won in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Kerry won this state with a modest margin, indicating Oregon's Democratic trend. This is the most recent presidential election in which Oregon was considered a swing state. ^[1]

As of the 2020 presidential election ^[update] , this is the last election in which Clackamas County voted for a Republican presidential candidate as well as the final time the state's margin would be in the single digits, ^[2] and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This election marked the only time in history that a Republican has been elected twice as president without ever carrying Oregon.

Primaries

• 2004 Oregon Democratic presidential primary
• 2004 Oregon Republican presidential primary

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. ^[3]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean D
Associated Press	Toss-up
CNN	Likely D
Cook Political Report	Lean D
Newsweek	Lean D
New York Times	Lean D
Rasmussen Reports	Likely D
Research 2000	Solid D
Washington Post	Toss-up
Washington Times	Toss-up
Zogby International	Likely D
Washington Dispatch	Likely D

Polling

Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45% for Bush. ^[4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,497,451. ^[5] Kerry raised $1,937,916. ^[6]

Advertising and visits

In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week. ^[7] Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state. ^[8]

Analysis

After the 2000 election, which saw a particularly close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target. However, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. The rural and highly conservative eastern interior and Southern Oregon favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Oregon
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	943,163	51.35%	7
	Republican	George W. Bush	866,831	47.19%	0
	Write Ins		8,956	0.49%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	7,260	0.40%	0
	Pacific Green	David Cobb	5,315	0.29%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	5,257	0.29%	0
Totals			1,836,782	100.00%	7
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					67.8%

Results by county

County	John Kerry Democratic		George W. Bush Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Baker	2,616	28.96%	6,253	69.22%	165	1.83%	-3,637	-40.26%	9,034
Benton	26,515	57.98%	18,460	40.36%	760	1.67%	8,055	17.62%	45,735
Clackamas	95,129	48.78%	97,691	50.10%	2,180	1.12%	-2,562	-1.32%	195,000
Clatsop	10,461	54.18%	8,503	44.04%	345	1.79%	1,958	10.14%	19,309
Columbia	12,563	50.42%	11,868	47.63%	486	1.95%	695	2.79%	24,917
Coos	14,393	43.14%	18,291	54.83%	678	2.03%	-3,898	-11.69%	33,362
Crook	3,024	30.09%	6,830	67.95%	197	1.96%	-3,806	-37.86%	10,051
Curry	5,220	40.78%	7,332	57.29%	247	1.93%	-2,112	-16.51%	12,799
Deschutes	31,179	42.11%	41,757	56.39%	1,112	1.50%	-10,578	-14.28%	74,048
Douglas	18,089	32.90%	35,956	65.39%	939	1.71%	-17,867	-32.49%	54,984
Gilliam	370	32.51%	755	66.34%	13	1.14%	-385	-33.83%	1,138
Grant	780	19.21%	3,204	78.90%	77	1.90%	-2,424	-59.69%	4,061
Harney	839	22.66%	2,815	76.04%	48	1.30%	-1,976	-53.38%	3,702
Hood River	5,587	56.67%	4,124	41.83%	148	1.50%	1,463	14.84%	9,859
Jackson	44,366	43.42%	56,519	55.31%	1,304	1.28%	-12,153	-11.89%	102,189
Jefferson	3,243	39.96%	4,762	58.68%	110	1.36%	-1,519	-18.72%	8,115
Josephine	15,214	35.99%	26,241	62.07%	820	1.94%	-11,027	-26.08%	42,275
Klamath	8,264	26.22%	22,733	72.13%	518	1.64%	-14,469	-45.91%	31,515
Lake	802	20.54%	3,039	77.82%	64	1.64%	-2,237	-57.28%	3,905
Lane	107,769	57.98%	75,007	40.35%	3,096	1.67%	32,762	17.63%	185,872
Lincoln	13,753	56.54%	10,160	41.77%	412	1.69%	3,593	14.77%	24,325
Linn	19,940	38.32%	31,260	60.07%	841	1.62%	-11,320	-21.75%	52,041
Malheur	2,577	23.76%	8,123	74.89%	146	1.35%	-5,546	-51.13%	10,846
Marion	57,671	44.49%	69,900	53.93%	2,048	1.58%	-12,229	-9.44%	129,619
Morrow	1,361	32.80%	2,732	65.85%	56	1.35%	-1,371	-33.05%	4,149
Multnomah	259,585	71.57%	98,439	27.14%	4,670	1.29%	161,146	44.43%	362,694
Polk	15,484	43.63%	19,508	54.97%	497	1.40%	-4,024	-11.34%	35,489
Sherman	390	35.33%	694	62.86%	20	1.81%	-304	-27.53%	1,104
Tillamook	6,750	48.38%	7,003	50.20%	198	1.42%	-253	-1.82%	13,951
Umatilla	8,884	33.75%	17,068	64.84%	370	1.41%	-8,184	-31.09%	26,322
Union	4,428	32.75%	8,879	65.68%	212	1.57%	-4,451	-32.93%	13,519
Wallowa	1,269	28.07%	3,132	69.28%	120	2.65%	-1,863	-41.21%	4,521
Wasco	5,691	47.42%	6,119	50.98%	192	1.60%	-428	-3.56%	12,002
Washington	121,140	52.37%	107,223	46.36%	2,945	1.27%	13,917	6.01%	231,308
Wheeler	245	27.84%	612	69.55%	23	2.61%	-367	-41.71%	880
Yamhill	17,572	41.70%	23,839	56.57%	731	1.73%	-6,267	-14.87%	42,142
Totals	943,163	51.35%	866,831	47.19%	26,788	1.46%	76,332	4.16%	1,836,782

By congressional district

Kerry won 3 of 5 congressional districts. Bush won 2, including one held by a Democrat. ^[9]

District	Kerry	Bush	Representative
1st	55%	44%	David Wu
2nd	38%	61%	Greg Walden
3rd	67%	33%	Earl Blumenauer
4th	49%	49%	Peter DeFazio
5th	49%	50%	Darlene Hooley

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All seven were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Michael J. Bohan
2. Shirley A. Cairns
3. James L. Edmunson
4. Moshe D. Lenske
5. Meredith Wood Smith
6. Judy A. Sugnet
7. Paul F. Zastrow

See also

• United States presidential elections in Oregon
• Presidency of George W. Bush

References

1. Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012). "How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
2. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
3. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW ^{[ permanent dead link ]}
4. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
5. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
6. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
7. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
8. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
9. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".