2016 United States Senate election in Maryland

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2016 United States Senate election in Maryland
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  Chris Van Hollen official portrait, 2010 (cropped).jpg Kathy Szeliga Press Conference (28133161470) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Chris Van Hollen Kathy Szeliga
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,659,907972,557
Percentage60.89%35.67%
2016 United States Senate election in Maryland results map by county.svg
MD Senate 2016.svg
Van Hollen:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Szeliga:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Barbara Mikulski
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Van Hollen
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate. [1] Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.

Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, and narrowly won Anne Arundel County, home to the state capital Annapolis, as well as exurban Frederick County.

As of 2023, this is the most recent statewide election in Maryland that a Democrat won without carrying Anne Arundel or Frederick counties. This election was the first time since 1980 that a man won the Class 3 Senate seat in Maryland.

Background

Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, [2] and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960. [3] On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office. [1]

In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices." [4] Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Debates

DatesLocationVan HollenEdwardsLink
March 25, 2016 Baltimore, Maryland ParticipantParticipant Full debate – C-SPAN

Endorsements

Donna Edwards
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Governors
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Federal politicians

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Donna
Edwards		Chris
Van Hollen		OtherUndecided
Monmouth University Archived June 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 18–20, 2016300± 5.7%36%52%1%11%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016492± 4.4%33%42%—25%
Marist College Archived April 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 5–9, 2016775± 3.5%38%44%—18%
Washington Post/University of Maryland Archived April 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 30 – April 3, 2016539± 4.5%44%40%—16%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research March 28–30, 2016604± 4.9%40%45%—15%
University of Baltimore March 4–9, 2016400± 4.9%34%28%—31%
Gonzales Research February 29 – March 4, 2016411± 5.0%41%42%—17%
Goucher College Archived March 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine February 13–18, 2016307± 5.6%39%37%—24%
Gonzales Research January 11–16, 2016402± 5%36%38%—24%
University of Baltimore November 13–17, 2015419± 4.8%19%28%40% [13] 13%
31%45%—24%
Washington Post/University of Maryland October 8–11, 20151,006± 3.5%20%20%33% [13] 27%
Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards) August 3–9, 2015600± 4%42%37%—21%
Mellman Group (D-Cummings) March 19–22, 2015700± 3.7%23%22%29% [13] 27%

Results

Results by county: Map legend .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Van Hollen--70-80% Van Hollen--60-70% Van Hollen--50-60% Van Hollen--40-50% Van Hollen--30-40% Edwards--60-70% Edwards--50-60% 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland Democratic Primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Van Hollen—70–80%
  •   Van Hollen—60–70%
  •   Van Hollen—50–60%
  •   Van Hollen—40–50%
  •   Van Hollen—30–40%
  •   Edwards—60–70%
  •   Edwards—50–60%
Democratic primary results, April 26 [77]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 470,320 53.2%
Democratic Donna Edwards343,62038.9%
Democratic Freddie Dickson14,8561.7%
Democratic Theresa Scaldaferri13,1781.5%
Democratic Violet Staley10,2441.2%
Democratic Lih Young8,5611.0%
Democratic Charles Smith7,9120.9%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe7,1610.8%
Democratic Blaine Taylor5,9320.7%
Democratic Ed Tinus2,5600.3%
Total votes884,344 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined



Endorsements

Chrys Kefalas
Newspapers
Kathy Szeliga
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals
Statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kathy
Szeliga		Richard
Douglas		Barry
Glassman		Chrys
Kefalas		Anthony
Seda		Undecided
Marist College Archived April 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine April 5–9, 2016368± 5.1%20%13%–9%–57%
Washington Post/University of Maryland Archived April 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine March 30 – April 3, 2016283± 7.5%15%9%–11%–46%
University of Baltimore March 4–8, 2016400± 4.9%6%1%–2%<1%79%
University of Baltimore November 13–17, 2015307± 5.6%15%9%8%5%4%59%

Results

Republican primary results [77]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kathy Szeliga 135,337 35.6%
Republican Chris Chaffee52,06613.7%
Republican Chrys Kefalas36,3409.6%
Republican Richard Douglas29,0077.6%
Republican Dave Wallace23,2266.1%
Republican Sean Connor21,7275.7%
Republican Lynn Richardson20,7925.5%
Republican John Graziani16,7224.4%
Republican Greg Holmes16,1484.3%
Republican Mark McNicholas9,9882.6%
Republican Joe Hooe8,2822.2%
Republican Anthony Seda3,8731.0%
Republican Richard Shawver3,1550.8%
Republican Garry Yarrington2,9880.8%
Total votes379,651 100.0%

Szeliga won the April 26, 2016, primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes. [113]

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Results

Green Party primary results [118]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Margaret Flowers 125 98.0%
Green None of the above32.0%
Total votes128 100.0%

Independents

Libertarian Party

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationVan HollenSzeligaLink
October 26, 2016 Baltimore, Maryland ParticipantParticipant Full debate – C-SPAN

Endorsements

Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Kathy Szeliga
Governors
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals
Statewide politicians
Newspapers
Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [134] Safe DNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [135] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [136] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [137] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [138] Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chris
Van Hollen (D)		Kathy
Szeliga (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20161,216± 4.6%64%33%—3%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 20161,056± 4.6%64%33%—3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016851± 4.6%66%32%—2%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016772± 4.6%67%31%—2%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016695± 4.6%66%31%—3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016740± 4.6%66%31%—3%
University of Maryland/Washington Post September 27–30, 2016706± 4.0%58%29%5%6%
Goucher College Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 17–20, 2016514± 4.3%54%24%2%19%
OpinionWorks August 18–30, 2016754± 3.6%55%26%1%19%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016879± 3.3%53%25%—22%

Results

United States Senate election in Maryland, 2016 [139]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 1,659,907 60.89% -1.30%
Republican Kathy Szeliga 972,55735.67%-0.08%
Green Margaret Flowers 89,9703.30%+2.17%
Write-in 3,7360.14%+0.03%
Total votes2,726,170 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

[ citation needed ]

CountyChris Van Hollen

Democratic

Kathy Szeliga

Republican

Margaret Flowers

Green

Write-in

Write-in

MarginTotal

votes

cast

#%#%#%#%#%
Allegany 976133.52%1807262.06%12534.30%320.11%-8311-28.54%29118
Anne Arundel 12796148.30%12826848.42%83893.17%3050.12%-307-0.12%264923
Baltimore (City) 19381982.59%2930612.49%110534.71%5110.22%16451370.10%234689
Baltimore (County) 21715156.41%15507940.29%122513.18%4630.12%6207216.12%384944
Calvert 1853440.38%2543155.41%18554.04%760.17%-6897-15.03%45896
Caroline 459633.16%890364.24%3492.52%110.08%-4307-31.08%13859
Carroll 2764930.62%6019566.67%23702.62%800.09%-32546-36.04%90294
Cecil 1484633.79%2737262.31%16543.77%580.13%-12526-28.51%43930
Charles 4899463.66%2550733.14%23623.07%1050.14%2348730.52%76968
Dorchester 669745.14%776352.33%3602.43%150.10%-1066-7.19%14835
Frederick 5708446.57%6051649.37%48093.92%1630.13%-3432-2.80%122572
Garrett 269620.22%1021076.58%4093.07%180.14%-7514-56.36%13333
Harford 4785836.22%8035560.81%37722.85%1480.11%-32497-24.59%132133
Howard 9762261.32%5588835.11%54593.43%2240.14%4173426.22%159193
Kent 470947.63%493649.93%2372.40%40.04%-227-2.30%9886
Montgomery 35414975.13%10340121.94%132692.81%5700.12%25074853.19%471389
Prince George's 33426587.67%340678.93%123053.23%6520.17%30019878.73%381289
Queen Anne's 847232.41%1700665.06%6402.45%190.07%-8534-32.65%26137
St. Mary's 1798037.31%2820758.53%19374.02%650.13%-10227-21.22%48189
Somerset 427744.27%517853.60%1962.03%100.10%-901-9.33%9661
Talbot 896744.21%1086153.55%4352.14%180.09%-1894-9.34%20281
Washington 2331336.87%3727858.96%25454.03%870.14%-13965-22.09%63223
Wicomico 1838244.00%2202752.73%13053.12%610.15%-3645-8.73%41775
Worcester 1012536.61%1673160.50%7562.73%410.15%-6606-23.89%27653
Total165990760.89%97255735.67%899703.30%37360.14%68735025.21%2726170

Counties that flipped from Democrat to Republican

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Kyle Cheney and Burgress Everett (March 2, 2015). "Barbara Mikulski won't seek reelection in 2016". Politico. Retrieved March 2, 2015.
  2. ↑ Marbella, Jean "Mikulski's milestone: the Senate's longest-serving woman" The Baltimore Sun January 5, 2011
  3. ↑ CNN.com: Mikulski makes history while creating 'zone of civility' for Senate women
  4. 1 2 Abby Livingston (August 12, 2013). "Chaos Comes in Maryland's Next Open Senate Race | Farm Team". Roll Call . Retrieved November 21, 2014.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 "2016 Presidential Primary Election State Candidates List". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved February 9, 2015.
  6. ↑ Hernandez, Arelis (March 8, 2015). "U.S. Rep. Donna Edwards said to be announcing Senate bid on Tuesday". The Washington Post . Retrieved March 8, 2015.
  7. ↑ Fritze, John (March 4, 2015). "Van Hollen tells supporters he will run for Senate". The Baltimore Sun . Retrieved March 4, 2015.
  8. 1 2 3 Fritze, John (April 7, 2015). "Rushern Baker to endorse Van Hollen". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on April 13, 2015. Retrieved April 7, 2015.
  9. ↑ Fritze, John (March 11, 2015). "Anthony Brown to run for House seat". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on August 17, 2017. Retrieved March 11, 2015.
  10. ↑ Duncan, Ian (March 14, 2015). "Attorney Susan Burke rules out Senate run". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on March 14, 2015. Retrieved March 15, 2015.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Levinson, Alexis (March 2, 2015). "Long List of Possible Barbara Mikulski Successors". Roll Call . Archived from the original on March 5, 2015. Retrieved March 2, 2015.
  12. ↑ French, Lauren; Cheney, Kyle (March 12, 2015). "Elijah Cummings' role in Maryland Senate race: Candidate or kingmaker?". Politico . Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  13. 1 2 3 4 French, Lauren (February 1, 2016). "Rep. Cummings won't run for open Maryland Senate seat". POLITICO. Retrieved February 1, 2016.
  14. ↑ Greene, Julie (September 13, 2015). "Delaney to run for re-election for Congress". The Herald-Mail .
  15. ↑ Grier, Peter (March 2, 2015). "Sen. Barbara Mikulski retiring: Will Martin O'Malley run?". The Christian Science Monitor . Retrieved March 2, 2015.
  16. 1 2 3 Fritze, John (March 2, 2015). "Sen. Barbara Mikulski won't seek 6th term". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on March 2, 2015. Retrieved March 2, 2015.
  17. 1 2 Fritze, John (March 14, 2015). "Candidates for Maryland's Senate seat". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on May 26, 2015. Retrieved June 8, 2015.
  18. ↑ Hawkings, David (March 5, 2015). "The Maryland Democrat Who Wants to Stay Where He Is". Roll Call . Archived from the original on March 8, 2015. Retrieved March 5, 2015.
  19. 1 2 "The race is on for Mikulski's seat". The Baltimore Sun . March 10, 2015. Archived from the original on March 22, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  20. ↑ Haberman, Maggie (March 6, 2015). "Ben Jealous Considers Run for Maryland Senate Seat". The New York Times . Retrieved March 6, 2015.
  21. ↑ Wood, Pamela (March 6, 2015). "Baltimore County Exec @kevinkamenetz says he's NOT running for US Senate. he is "100% focused" on being county exec". Twitter. Retrieved March 6, 2015.
  22. ↑ Hernández, Arelis R. (March 4, 2015). "Kennedy Townsend considering run for U.S. Senate seat in 2016". The Washington Post . Retrieved March 4, 2015.
  23. 1 2 3 Levinson, Alexis (May 11, 2015). "Kathleen Kennedy Townsend Backing Van Hollen". Roll Call . Archived from the original on May 14, 2015. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
  24. ↑ Kurtz, Josh (March 4, 2015). "Add another name to possible Md. Senate field: Frank Kratovil is testing the waters, according to sources close to the former congressman". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2015.
  25. 1 2 Miller, Jayne (March 11, 2015). "Baltimore influence at stake in Maryland Senate race". WBAL-TV . Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  26. 1 2 Cross, Richard (March 2, 2015). "Contenders for Mikulski's seat". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 3, 2015.
  27. ↑ Dresser, Michael (March 4, 2015). "Mizeur weighing run for retiring Mikulski's Senate seat". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on March 19, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  28. ↑ Dresser, Michael (April 8, 2015). "Mizeur won't run for Senate or House in 2016". The Baltimore Sun . Retrieved April 8, 2015.
  29. 1 2 3 John Wagner and Jenna Johnson (March 2, 2015). "Mikulski to retire from Senate after 30 years". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on March 3, 2015. Retrieved March 2, 2015.
  30. ↑ Thomas, Ken (March 3, 2015). "O'Malley Won't Seek Mikulski Seat, Keeps White House Option". ABC News . Retrieved March 3, 2015.
  31. ↑ Levinson, Alexis (March 12, 2015). "Democrat Rules Out Maryland Senate Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 13, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  32. ↑ Dresser, Michael (March 23, 2015). "Raskin says he'll run for Congress in 8th District". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on September 12, 2017. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
  33. ↑ Wenger, Yvonne (March 4, 2015). "Rawlings-Blake says she's thinking 'long and hard' about whether to run for U.S. Senate". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  34. ↑ McCabe, David (March 9, 2015). "Baltimore mayor taking look at Senate". The Hill . Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  35. ↑ Broadwater, Luke; Wenger, Yvonne (May 29, 2015). "Mayor could face tough race for re-election, analysts predict". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on June 23, 2015. Retrieved June 22, 2015.
  36. ↑ Witte, Brian (September 29, 2015). "Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger not running for US Senate". The Washington Post . Associated Press. Archived from the original on October 1, 2015. Retrieved September 30, 2015.
  37. ↑ Fritze, John (June 13, 2015). "Rep. John Sarbanes will not run for Senate". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on April 3, 2017. Retrieved June 15, 2015.
  38. ↑ Valcourt, Derek (March 2, 2015). "Questions Swirl About Who Could Replace Senator Mikulski". The Baltimore Sun . Retrieved March 2, 2015.
  39. ↑ Rachel Weiner (April 13, 2015). "Carol Moseley Braun endorses Donna Edwards in Md. Senate primary". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 13, 2015.
  40. ↑ Weiner, Rachel (April 9, 2015). "Rep. Donna Edwards says she won't take donations from Wall Street banks". The Washington Post . Retrieved April 10, 2015.
  41. 1 2 3 "Edwards Picks Up Three Charles County Endorsements". Donna Edwards for Senate. June 9, 2015. Archived from the original on June 24, 2015. Retrieved June 24, 2015.
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  76. 1 2 Easley, Jonathan (March 10, 2015). "Pelosi, Hoyer won't endorse in Maryland Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  77. 1 2 "Official 2016 Presidential Primary Election results for U.S. Senator". State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 31, 2016.
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  81. 1 2 "Baltimore Sun endorses Van Hollen and Kefalas in respective Primaries". WBAL. April 20, 2016. Retrieved April 21, 2016.
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  84. ↑ Fritze, John (December 1, 2015). "Kefalas jumps into race for Senate GOP nomination". The Baltimore Sun. Archived from the original on December 8, 2015. Retrieved December 2, 2015.
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  87. 1 2 Miner, Ryan (August 22, 2015). "Mary Kane for U.S. Senate?". ryanrminer.com. Retrieved August 26, 2015.
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  89. ↑ Kevin Derby (May 20, 2015). "Conservative Dan Bongino Mulls Bid for Patrick Murphy's Seat". Sunshine State News. Retrieved May 24, 2015.
  90. ↑ David Graham (February 19, 2014). "Meet Dr. Ben Carson, the New Conservative Folk Hero". The Atlantic . Retrieved June 17, 2014.
  91. ↑ Schwartzman, Paul (August 4, 2015). "Ehrlich won't run for Senate either". The Washington Post . Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  92. ↑ Fritze, John (January 13, 2016). "Harford Co. Executive Barry Glassman passes on Senate run". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on February 5, 2016. Retrieved January 29, 2016.
  93. 1 2 Burton, Jim (March 11, 2015). "What kind of Republican can win Maryland's Senate race in 2016?". Maryland Reporter. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
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  95. ↑ Sadur, Julian (January 18, 2016). "Harris eyes re-election, gains endorsement from Wico. Co. Executive". WMDT . Retrieved January 25, 2016.
  96. ↑ Weber, Joseph (March 15, 2015). "Maryland Democrats jump at shot for Mikulski's Senate seat while Republicans stay on sidelines". Fox News . Retrieved March 15, 2015.
  97. ↑ Prudente, Tim (March 12, 2015). "Former Anne Arundel executive Laura Neuman considers bid for Mikulski's seat". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on March 19, 2015. Retrieved March 12, 2015.
  98. ↑ "Endorsements". Kathy Szeliga for U.S. Senate. Retrieved January 29, 2016.
  99. ↑ Simendinger, Alexis (April 10, 2015). "Michael Steele Mulling Run for Mikulski's Senate Seat". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved June 15, 2015.
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  101. 1 2 "Join me for dinner and a chance to meet United States Senator Mike Lee. Looking forward to a great event! Details below". Facebook.
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  106. 1 2 "Letter: Ready: Szeliga deserves support in Senate race". Carroll County Times.
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  110. 1 2 "MD Right to Life 2016 primary endorsements". Quinton Report.
  111. 1 2 "VIEWPAC- Kathy Szeliga (MD SEN)". VIEWPAC. Archived from the original on April 20, 2016. Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  112. 1 2 "RightNOW Women PAC Endorses Rising Stars and Calls for Support of Women Leaders". RightNOW.
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  115. ↑ "Single Payer Activist Margaret Flowers Running for Maryland Senate Seat". Single Payer Action. October 1, 2015. Retrieved October 20, 2015.
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  117. 1 2 Campbell, Colin (May 2, 2016). "Margaret Flowers will face Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen and Republican Kathy Szeliga in the general election to fill retiring Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski's seat". The Baltimore Sun . Archived from the original on May 2, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
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  128. 1 2 Howard County Breakfast for Kathy Szeliga (hcgop.org) Retrieved June 3, 2016.
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