2016 Washington gubernatorial election

Last updated

2016 Washington gubernatorial election
Flag of Washington.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
  Jay Inslee official portrait (cropped 2).jpg Bill Bryant.jpg
Nominee Jay Inslee Bill Bryant
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,760,5201,476,346
Percentage54.2%45.5%

2016 Washington gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
WA Governor 2016.svg
Inslee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Bryant:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data

Governor before election

Jay Inslee
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Inslee
Democratic

The 2016 Washington gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016.

Contents

Under Washington's top-two primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, residents voted for one of several candidates from a range of party affiliations. The top two finishers, incumbent governor Jay Inslee (Democratic) [1] and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant (Republican), moved on to the November general election, which Inslee won.

Background

Democratic governor Christine Gregoire declined to seek a third term in 2012. Democratic former U.S. Representative Jay Inslee was elected to succeed her, defeating Republican Rob McKenna, the outgoing Attorney General of Washington, by 51.4% to 48.3%.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Declared

Republican Party

Declared

Declined

Third Party and independent candidates

Declared

  • David Blomstrom (Fifth Republic) [2]
  • Christian Joubert (Holistic) [2]
  • Mary Martin (Socialist Workers) [2]
  • Steve Rubenstein (Independent)

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Inslee, Bryant, and Dorn
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Bill
Bryant (R)
Randy
Dorn (I)
Undecided
Elway Poll April 14–17, 2016503± 3.5%41%26%7%25%

Results

Results by county:
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Inslee--40-50%
Inslee--60-70%
Bryant--30-40%
Bryant--40-50%
Bryant--50-60%
Bryant--60-70% 2016WAGOVprimary.svg
Results by county:
  Inslee—40–50%
  Inslee—60–70%
  Bryant—30–40%
  Bryant—40–50%
  Bryant—50–60%
  Bryant—60–70%
Blanket primary election results [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jay Inslee (incumbent) 687,412 49.30
Republican Bill Bryant 534,519 38.33
Republican Bill Hirt48,3823.47
Democratic Patrick O'Rourke40,5722.91
Independent Steve Rubenstein22,5821.62
Democratic James Robert Deal14,6231.05
Democratic Johnathan Dodds14,1521.01
Republican Goodspaceguy 13,1910.95
Socialist Workers Mary Martin10,3740.74
Independent David Blomstrom4,5120.32
Independent Christian Joubert4,1030.29
Total votes1,394,422 100

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [10] Safe DAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [11] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [12] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [14] Lean DNovember 1, 2016
Governing [15] Likely DNovember 7, 2016

Endorsements

Bill Bryant (R)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Jay
Inslee (D)
Bill
Bryant (R)
Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
Real Clear Politics October 6 – November 2, 2016November 2, 201650.7%42.3%7.0%Inslee +8.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Bill
Bryant (R)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20161,451± 4.6%55%42%3%
Insights West Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine November 4–6, 2016402± 4.9%49%40%10%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 20161,292± 4.6%55%42%3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016944± 4.6%56%41%3%
SurveyUSA October 31 – November 2, 2016667± 3.9%50%43%6%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016807± 4.6%56%41%3%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016698± 4.6%55%41%4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016745± 4.6%55%42%3%
Elway Poll October 20–22, 2016502± 4.5%51%39%10%
KCTS 9/YouGov October 6–13, 2016750± 4.4%51%45%4%
Strategies 360/KOMO News September 29 – October 3, 2016500± 4.4%50%40%8%
Elway Poll August 9–13, 2016500± 4.5%48%36%16%
Moore Information May 16–18, 2016500± 4.0%43%36%18%
Elway Poll April 14–17, 2016503± 3.5%48%36%16%
Elway Poll December 28–30, 2015500± 4.5%39%30%31%
Public Policy Polling May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%46%34%21%
Hypothetical polling
Jay Inslee vs. Andy Hill
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Andy
Hill (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%45%31%24%
Jay Inslee vs. Rob McKenna
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Rob
McKenna (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%43%38%19%
Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Dave
Reichert (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%45%34%22%
Jay Inslee vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Elway Poll December 28–30, 2015500± 4.5%30%25%45%
Jay Inslee vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jay
Inslee (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Moore Information May 16–18, 2016500± 4.0%38%47%15%
Moore Information May 2015500± 4.0%38%44%18%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
Moore Information May 16–18, 2016500± 4.0%41%34%5%20%
Moore Information May 2015500± 4.0%34%30%16%20%

Results

2016 Washington gubernatorial election [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jay Inslee (incumbent) 1,760,520 54.25% +2.85%
Republican Bill Bryant 1,476,34645.49%-2.84%
Write-in 8,4160.26%-0.02%
Total votes3,245,282 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Results by county

County results
County [34] Jay Inslee

Democratic

Bill Bryant

Republican

Write-in

Various

Total votes
#%#%#%
Adams 1,53332.64%3,15167.1%120.26%4,696
Asotin 4,14942.46%5,60957.4%130.13%9,771
Benton 31,12837.95%50,73061.84%1720.21%82,030
Chelan 13,86640.94%19,93458.86%650.19%33,865
Clallam 19,35448.87%20,18050.78%1400.35%39,602
Clark 96,03247.93%103,78751.8%5600.28%200,379
Columbia 68831.5%1,49168.27%50.23%2,184
Cowlitz 19,59342.75%26,11656.98%1240.27%45,833
Douglas 5,44134.73%10,19765.09%280.18%15,666
Ferry 1,36037.56%2,25262.19%90.25%3,621
Franklin 9,73140.27%14,38759.54%450.19%24,163
Garfield 37029.65%87570.11%30.24%1,248
Grant 9,24232.16%19,40167.5%990.34%28,742
Grays Harbor 14,03848.43%14,84351.2%1070.37%28,988
Island 21,79750.16%21,56049.61%980.23%43,455
Jefferson 13,39965.24%7,04934.32%900.44%20,538
King 677,94367.69%321,24232.07%2,4090.24%1,001,594
Kitsap 66,39252.47%59,76247.23%3680.29%126,522
Kittitas 7,98441.66%11,13958.13%400.21%19,163
Klickitat 4,51741.82%6,26057.96%240.22%10,801
Lewis 11,16332.09%23,53967.66%860.25%34,788
Lincoln 1,61627.92%4,16071.89%110.19%5,787
Mason 13,12645.92%15,36553.75%930.33%28,584
Okanogan 7,43743.06%9,79456.71%390.23%17,270
Pacific 5,31349.29%5,42850.36%370.34%10,778
Pend Oreille 2,52036.5%4,36463.21%200.29%6,904
Pierce 176,82549.94%176,28749.79%9530.27%354,065
San Juan 7,50968.89%3,35630.79%350.32%10,900
Skagit 28,27349.47%28,70150.22%1730.3%57,147
Skamania 2,47644.35%3,09455.42%130.23%5,583
Snohomish 182,54452.12%166,77047.61%9370.27%350,251
Spokane 106,00945.87%124,57653.91%5080.22%231,093
Stevens 7,14831.02%15,85168.79%450.2%23,044
Thurston 71,83554.67%59,01444.91%5590.43%131,408
Wahkiakum 94139.89%1,41359.9%50.21%2,359
Walla Walla 10,70541.77%14,88058.06%440.17%25,629
Whatcom 62,63456.45%47,95343.22%3700.33%110,957
Whitman 8,72749.41%8,89250.35%430.24%17,662
Yakima 35,16244.96%43,01655.0%340.04%78,212
Totals1,760,52054.25%1,476,34645.49%8,4160.26%3,245,282
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Inslee won 6 of 10 congressional districts. [35]

DistrictInsleeBryantRepresentative
1st 51%49% Suzan DelBene
2nd 57%43% Rick Larsen
3rd 45%55% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 40%60% Dan Newhouse
5th 44%56% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 54%46% Derek Kilmer
7th 78%22% Jim McDermott
Pramila Jayapal
8th 46%54% Dave Reichert
9th 67%33% Adam Smith
10th 53%47% Denny Heck

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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Official campaign websites (Archived)