2012 United States Senate election in Washington

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2012 United States Senate election in Washington
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←  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  →
Turnout64.1% (voting eligible) [1]
  Maria Cantwell, official portrait, 110th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg Michael Baumgartner crop (cropped).jpg
Nominee Maria Cantwell Michael Baumgartner
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,855,4931,213,924
Percentage60.36%39.49%
2012 United States Senate election in Washington results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Washington by Congressional District.svg
WA Senate 2012.svg
Cantwell:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Baumgartner:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Washington took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell won re-election to a third term by a significant margin, outperforming President Barack Obama's margin in the concurrent presidential election by 6%.

Contents

Background

Maria Cantwell won re-election to serve a second term with 56.81% of the vote against Mike McGavick in the 2006 Washingtonian U.S. senatorial election.

Top-two primary election

Candidates

Democratic

Republican

Declined

Others

  • Will Baker (Reform Party) [6]

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Cantwell 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Baumgartner 40-50% 50-60% 2012WASENprimary.svg
Results by county:
  Cantwell
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Baumgartner
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Blanket primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Maria Cantwell (incumbent) 626,360 55.42
Republican Michael Baumgartner 344,72930.50
Republican Art Coday59,2555.24
Democratic Timothy Wilson26,8502.38
Republican Chuck Jackson21,8701.94
Republican Glenn R. Stockwell21,7311.92
Republican Mike the Mover 16,4591.46
Reform Will Baker12,8651.14
Total votes1,130,119 100.00

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Maria Cantwell (D)$8,032,254$6,355,260$2,176,258$2,171,350
Michael Baumgartner (R)$689,690$422,428$181,841$45,689
Source: Federal Election Commission [18] [19]

Top contributors

[20]

Maria CantwellContributionMichael BaumgartnerContribution
Microsoft Corp $83,982Anderson Hay & Grain$5,000
EMILY's List $77,900Columbia Management Systems, By Lar$5,000
Morgan & Morgan $40,000Ignition Partners$5,000
League of Conservation Voters $39,900Kvc Development Co$5,000
University of Washington $35,900Acorn Campus Ventures$4,000
K&L Gates $35,048Legacy LLC$3,523
Boeing Co. $30,625Inland Empire Paper$3,750
Intellectual Ventures LLC $27,250Savers Inc$3,523
McBee Strategic Consulting$26,650Red Lion Hotels$3,500
Second Avenue Partners $24,500National Cotton Council$3,300

Top industries

[21]

Maria CantwellContributionMichael BaumgartnerContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $696,936Retired$45,756
Retired$621,231 Financial Institutions $10,000
Lobbyists $539,418Financial Institutions$310,487
Financial Institutions$310,487 Agribusiness $9,550
Computers/Internet$206,970 Health Professionals $6,150
Real Estate $179,169Misc Finance$4,250
Health Professionals$169,937 Mining $4,25
Business Services$167,629 Timber/Forest Products $3,750
Casinos/Gambling $165,850General Contractors$3,000
Entertainment Industry$136,457Real Estate$2,950

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [22] Solid DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Safe DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [24] Safe DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [25] Likely DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Michael
Baumgartner (R)		Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 14 – November 3, 2012November 3, 201256.7%36.3%7.0%Cantwell +20.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Michael
Baumgartner (R)		OtherUndecided
Survey USA November 21–23, 2011549±4.3%51%39%—10%
Survey USA January 12–16, 2012617±4.0%50%41%—8%
Public Policy Polling February 16–19, 20121,264±2.76%51%36%—13%
Public Policy Polling June 14–17, 20121,073±3.0%51%35%—14%
Survey USA July 16–17, 2012630±4.0%51%40%—9%
Survey USA September 7–9, 2012524±4.4%54%38%—8%
Rasmussen Reports September 26, 2012500±4.5%57%37%1%5%
SurveyUSA September 28–30, 2012540±4.3%53%40%—6%
The Washington Poll October 1–16, 2012782±3.5%58%35%—7%
Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2012500±4.5%52%37%1%9%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll October 18–31, 2012632±3.9%61%33%—6%
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2012932±3.2%57%39%—4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Bill
Bryant (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 16–19, 20121,264±2.76%50%36%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Cathy M.
Rodgers (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling July 27 – August 1, 20101,204±2.8%49%37%—13%
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 20111,098±3.0%50%31%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Dave
Reichert (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling July 27 – August 1, 20101,204±2.8%47%41%—12%
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 20111,098±3.0%49%35%—16%
Survey USA November 21–23, 2011549±4.3%48%41%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Clint
Didier (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 20111,098±3.0%51%35%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Susan
Hutchison (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 20111,098±3.0%49%35%—16%
Survey USA November 21–23, 2011549±4.3%49%38%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Dino
Rossi (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 12–15, 20111,098±3.0%53%40%—8%
Public Policy Polling February 16–19, 20121,264±2.76%53%41%—7%

Endorsements

Maria Cantwell (D)
State legislators

Results

United States Senate election in Washington, 2012 [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Maria Cantwell (incumbent) 1,855,493 60.36% +3.55%
Republican Michael Baumgartner 1,213,92439.49%-0.42%
Write-in 4,6440.15%+0.08%
Total votes3,074,061 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Cantwell won 8 of 10 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [28]

DistrictBaumgartnerCantwellRepresentative
1st 43%57% Suzan DelBene
2nd 37%63% Rick Larsen
3rd 47%53% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 55%45% Doc Hastings
5th 52%48% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 39%61% Derek Kilmer
7th 18%82% Jim McDermott
8th 45%55% Dave Reichert
9th 28%72% Adam Smith
10th 39%61% Denny Heck

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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References

  1. ↑ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
  2. ↑ Blumenthal, Les (November 21, 2010). "Washington state's Cantwell not looking ahead to 2012 -- yet". McClatchy Newspapers . Archived from the original on November 19, 2012. Retrieved December 9, 2010.
  3. ↑ "timwilsonforsenate.org - timwilsonforsenate Resources and Information". Archived from the original on January 13, 2016. Retrieved September 1, 2019.
  4. ↑ "Makupfront: Up Front With Robert Mak". Archived from the original on April 25, 2012. Retrieved October 2, 2011.
  5. ↑ Camden, Jim (January 30, 2012). "U.S. Senate race: Cantwell has $4 million in bank". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved February 24, 2012.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "2012 Candidates Appearing in the Primary". Secretary of State of Washington . Retrieved August 1, 2012.
  7. ↑ "Candidate Statement". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
  8. ↑ "Corporation Registration Detail". Secretary of State of Washington. Retrieved August 1, 2012.
  9. ↑ Myrick, Bryan (March 12, 2012). "Port Commission President Bill Bryant Will Not Challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate". NW Daily Marker.
  10. ↑ "Endorsements - Art Coday for US Senate, Washington 2012". Archived from the original on March 23, 2012. Retrieved March 25, 2012.
  11. ↑ Faulk, Mike (February 24, 2012). "Doc Hastings rules out reform". Yakima Herald-Republic . Tri-City Herald. Archived from the original on April 18, 2012. Retrieved February 24, 2012.
  12. ↑ Mathieu, Stevie (January 16, 2012). "Congresswoman talks town halls, confirms re-election bid". The Columbian . Retrieved February 24, 2012.
  13. ↑ "John Koster officially files to unseat Rep. Rick Larsen | Politics | Everett News". Archived from the original on April 2, 2012. Retrieved August 6, 2011.
  14. ↑ Camden, Jim; Brunt, Jonathan (March 17, 2011). "McMorris Rodgers starting 2012 campaign". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved February 24, 2012.
  15. ↑ Brunner, Jim (February 2, 2012). "Reichert won't challenge Cantwell for U.S. Senate seat". The Seattle Times.
  16. ↑ Mak, Robert (October 26, 2011). "GOP Senate hopeful drops out of race". KING 5 News . Archived from the original on February 11, 2012. Retrieved December 14, 2011.
  17. ↑ "U.S. Senator". Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 8, 2012.
  18. ↑ |Maria Cantwell Campaign Finances
  19. ↑ |Michael Baumgartner Campaign Finances
  20. ↑ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=WAS1 OpenSecrets
  21. ↑ Donors by Industry (opensecrets.org)
  22. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  23. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  24. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  25. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. ↑ "Extra Jolt: Longtime Republican Leader Endorses Cantwell over Baumgartner".
  27. ↑ "U.S. Senator".
  28. ↑ Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.
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