2012 United States Senate election in Indiana

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2012 United States Senate election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
←  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  →
Turnout58.5% [1]
  Congressman joedonnelly (cropped).jpg StateTreasurerRichardMourdock.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Joe Donnelly Richard Mourdock Andy Horning
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote1,281,1811,133,621145,282
Percentage50.04%44.28%5.68%
2012 United States Senate election in Indiana results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Indiana by Congressional District.svg
Donnelly:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Mourdock:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Richard Lugar
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Lugar ran for reelection to a seventh term, but was defeated in the primary by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock. U.S. Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana's 2nd congressional district, was unopposed in his party's primary, and then defeated both Mourdock and Libertarian Andrew Horning in the general election.

As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Indiana, and the most recent Senate election in which an elected incumbent was defeated in the primary. [lower-alpha 1] [2] This election is also the most recent time a party would flip a Senate seat in a presidential election year without carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election. [lower-alpha 2] In addition, with Republicans flipping Indiana's other Senate seat two years earlier, this election is the last time a party would flip a Senate seat in a state whose other seat was flipped by the opposition party in the previous election cycle.

Background and overview

On November 7, 2006, incumbent Richard Lugar was unopposed by any major party candidate as no Democrat filed for the May 2006 primary. He was re-elected to his sixth six-year term with 87.3% of the vote. [3] After the 2012 election, Lugar would have had an even chance, according to Senate Republican Conference rules, to be elected as its president pro tempore. [4] However, the issue was rendered moot with Lugar's primary loss on May 9, 2012, as Indiana state law prohibits candidates from running for an election after losing a primary. Time featured the race in their "Fury of the Senate" article. The article mentioned how Donnelly was lucky that Mourdock won out in the primary against Lugar, a well-liked centrist member of the GOP. Another boost came when Mourdock's remarks regarding rape helped propel Donnelly to victory. [5]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 8, 2012.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Campaign

Due to Lugar's unpopularity among some Tea Party voters because of his positions regarding illegal immigration, voting to confirm then-U.S. Supreme Court nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, the DREAM Act, the New START Treaty, some gun control bills, and congressional earmarks, he was challenged by a Tea Party-backed candidate. [11] [12]

The Indiana Debate Commission's GOP primary debate with Sen. Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was set to air at 7 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 11. [13] In a widely published poll taken March 26 to 28, Lugar was still in the lead, but by the time of a second published poll from April 30 to May 1, Mourdock was leading 48% to 38%.[ citation needed ]

Mourdock defeated Senator Lugar in the Republican primary on May 8, 2012. [14] [15]

According to Indiana law, Lugar's defeat meant that he would not be permitted to run in the election either as a third party or an independent candidate after he lost the primary. [16]

Endorsements

Richard Lugar
Individuals
Organizations
Richard Mourdock
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Richard
Mourdock		Richard
Lugar		Undecided
Basswood Research (R) July 23–24, 2011500±4.4%34%32%34%
American Viewpoint (R) July 27–28, 2011600±4.0%31%45%23%
Howey Politics/DePauw University March 26–28, 2012503±4.5%35%42%28%
Howey Politics/DePauw University April 30 – May 1, 2012700±3.7%48%38%14%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Murdock--70-80% Murdock--60-70% Murdock--50-60% Lugar--50-60% Indiana U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
  Murdock—70–80%
  Murdock—60–70%
  Murdock—50–60%
  Lugar—50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Richard Mourdock 400,321 60.5%
Republican Richard Lugar (incumbent)261,28539.5%
Total votes661,606 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Donnelly was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Democratic primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Donnelly 207,715 100.00%
Total votes207,715 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Confirmed debates with Donnelly, Horning and Mourdock are: [51]

Date: Monday, October 15
Broadcast Time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: Indianapolis
Venue: WFYI-TV (in studio/no live audience)

Date: Tuesday, October 23
Broadcast Time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: New Albany
Venue: Paul W. Ogle Cultural & Community Center, Indiana University Southeast (live audience – seating up to 500)

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Joe Donnelly (D)$5,572,319$5,496,760$95,578$0
Richard Mourdock (R)$8,982,053$8,698,721$283,332$0
Andy Horning (L)$4,907$2,905$2,005$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [52]

Top contributors

Joe DonnellyContributionRichard MourdockContribution
Faegre Baker Daniels $30,942 Club for Growth $290,815
MacAndrews & Forbes $29,500 Senate Conservatives Fund $58,728
Renco Group $27,400 Koch Industries $30,000
Barnes & Thornburg $22,601Murray Energy$15,000
University of Notre Dame $20,150 Lucas Oil $11,400
MWH Global WPP plc $17,000 ESOP Association $10,750
Eli Lilly and Company $16,912 Blue Cross Blue Shield Association $10,250
Power, Rogers & Smith$16,000 American Bankers Association $10,000
Mid Manhattan PAC$13,750 ExxonMobil $10,000
Patton Boggs LLP$13,083 Citizens United $10,000
Source: OpenSecrets [53]

Top industries

Joe DonnellyContributionRichard MourdockContribution
Lawyers/law firms $463,098 Republican/Conservative PACs $474,661
Leadership PACs $298,000Leadership PACs$305,607
Retired$192,716Retired$244,206
Lobbyists $109,987 Oil & gas $132,530
Building trade unions$77,000 Financial institutions $90,200
Financial institutions$100,235 Commercial banks $88,430
Education$91,563 Health professionals $86,567
Building trade unions$63,500Misc. finance$64,815
Public sector unions $87,000 Manufacturing industry $60,200
Political action committees $63,798Real estate$58,290
Source: OpenSecrets [54]

Campaign

Pregnancy from rape controversy

Mourdock became embroiled in a controversy after stating that pregnancy from rape is "something that God intended". His remarks were made during a debate on October 23, 2012, while explaining his opposition to abortion even in the case of rape. At the debate Mourdock, when asked what his position on abortion was, responded:

I know there are some who disagree and I respect their point of view but I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have to have an abortion is in that case of the life of the mother. I just struggled with it myself for a long time but I came to realize: "Life is that gift from God that I think even if life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen". [55]

Media speculated that this could affect the outcome of the Senate race and Presidential race [56] and multiple sources noted the similarities with the rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections. [57] [58]

Responding to the criticism, Mourdock issued a statement saying: "God creates life, and that was my point. God does not want rape, and by no means was I suggesting that he does. Rape is a horrible thing, and for anyone to twist my words otherwise is absurd and sick." [59] He was later quoted at a press conference also saying: "I believe God controls the universe. I don't believe biology works in an uncontrolled fashion." [60] He however refused to issue an apology, even while prominent Republicans, including Sen. John McCain, called for him to do so. [61]

Response

A day before the controversy started, a television ad began airing that showed Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for United States President, supporting Mourdock. [62] The Romney campaign subsequently issued a statement saying "Gov. Romney disagrees with Richard Mourdock's comments, and they do not reflect his views," but did not pull the ad. Senator John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said "Richard and I, along with millions of Americans—including even Joe Donnelly—believe that life is a gift from God. To try and construe his words as anything other than a restatement of that belief is irresponsible and ridiculous". [63] [64]

Many public Republicans called for Mourdock to apologize for the statement. Sen. John McCain called for him to issue an apology and his support "depends on what he does." [61] Senator Scott Brown refused to state that he supported Mourdock in the election. [65] Rep. Mike Pence, a Republican running for governor of Indiana concurrent to Mourdock's senatorial campaign, urged Mourdock to apologize. "I strongly disagree with the statement made by Richard Mourdock during last night's Senate debate," he said in a statement. "I urge him to apologize." [66]

President Obama stated, "Rape is rape. It is a crime," on the Tonight Show . He continued, "These various distinctions about rape don't make too much sense to me." [67] Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, immediately criticized Mourdock, saying: "I'm stunned and ashamed that Richard Mourdock believes God intended rape", and claimed that he is an "extremist" who is out of touch with Indiana. [55]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [68] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [69] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [70] Tilt D (flip)November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [71] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Richard
Mourdock (R)		Joe
Donnelly (D)		Andrew
Horning (L)		OtherUndecided
Howey Politics/DePauw University March 26–28, 2012503± 4.4%35%35%7%—23%
Rasmussen Reports May 23–24, 2012600± 4.0%42%42%—2%14%
Rasmussen Reports July 31 – August 1, 2012400± 5.0%42%40%—3%15%
Market Research Insight August 6–9, 2012600± 4.0%41%39%3%—17%
Howey Politics/DePauw University September 19–23, 2012800± 3.5%38%40%7%—8%
Rasmussen Reports October 10–11, 2012600± 4.0%47%42%—2%8%
Pharos Research October 19–21, 2012754± 3.6%46%46%——8%
Howey Politics/DePauw University October 28–30, 2012800± 3.5%36%47%6%—11%
Rasmussen Reports November 1, 2012600± 4.0%42%45%6%—6%
Hypothetical polling
with Richard Lugar
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Richard
Lugar (R)		Joe
Donnelly (D)		OtherUndecided
Howey Politics/DePauw University March 26–28, 2012503± 4.4%50%29%—21%

Results

State Senate district results 2012 US senate election in Indiana by state senate district.svg
State Senate district results

On election night, Donnelly won by about six percent. Donnelly performed well in Marion County, home of Indianapolis. Donnelly also won areas with major college campuses, such as Indiana University in Bloomington and Purdue University in Lafayette. Mourdock performed well as expected in the Indianapolis suburbs, such as Hamilton County. Mourdock conceded defeat to Donnelly at around 11:30 p.m. EST.

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2012 [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Joe Donnelly 1,281,181 50.04% N/A
Republican Richard Mourdock 1,133,62144.28%-43.08%
Libertarian Andy Horning145,2825.68%-6.91%
Write-in 180.00%-0.06%
Total votes2,560,102 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Donnelly won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans. [73]

DistrictDonnellyMourdockRepresentative
1st 66.31%30.99% Pete Visclosky
2nd 49.94%45.42%Joe Donnelly (112th Congress)
Jackie Walorski (113th Congress)
3rd 40.47%53.96% Marlin Stutzman
4th 43.56%49.03% Todd Rokita
5th 47.36%46.18% Dan Burton (112th Congress)
Susan Brooks (113th Congress)
6th 43.68%48.93% Mike Pence (112th Congress)
Luke Messer (113th Congress)
7th 66.03%28.00% André Carson
8th 47.74%46.84% Larry Bucshon
9th 46.81%47.20% Todd Young

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ U.S. Senator Luther Strange lost a primary election to Roy Moore in 2017 after being appointed by the governor to fill an empty seat.
  2. ↑ Independents would flip the Maine Senate seat, though the independent would caucus with the Democrats, who won the state in presidential elections.

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References

  1. ↑ "2012 General Election Turnout and Absentee Report" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. November 28, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 15, 2021. Retrieved July 14, 2017.
  2. ↑ "Joe Kennedy Isn't Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger". FiveThirtyEight. September 24, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2021.
  3. ↑ "Secretary of State: Elections Division: Election Foundation Wide". Indiana Secretary of State . November 7, 2006. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  4. ↑ Kamen, Al (September 14, 2010). "GOP Dilemma: Who's on First?". WashingtonPost.com . Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  5. ↑ "The Senate - Much Fury, Little Change", Time , p. 18, November 19, 2012
  6. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (November 18, 2010). "Lugar picks up re-election efforts". CNN . Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  7. ↑ Wilson, Charles (January 18, 2011). "Sen. Richard Lugar to seek re-election in 2012". Associated Press. Retrieved February 6, 2011.
  8. ↑ Higgins, Will (February 22, 2011). "Indiana treasurer Richard Mourdock to run for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star . Retrieved February 22, 2011.
  9. ↑ Francisco, Brian (September 14, 2011). "Delph sitting out U.S. Senate race". The Journal Gazette . Retrieved September 14, 2011.
  10. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (January 3, 2012). "Mourdock Catches a Break in Indiana". National Journal . Archived from the original on January 12, 2012. Retrieved January 3, 2012.
  11. ↑ Kaminski, Matthew (November 20, 2010). "Dick Lugar vs. the GOP". The Wall Street Journal . Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  12. ↑ Shella, Jim (November 12, 2010). "Tea Party sets sights on Dick Lugar". WISH-TV . Archived from the original on March 12, 2012. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Indiana Debate Commission Announces U.S. Senate Primary Debate Details". Archived from the original on November 6, 2013. Retrieved April 2, 2012.
  14. ↑ Geiger, Kim (May 9, 2012). "Tea party upstart Mourdock defeats longtime Indiana Sen. Lugar". Los Angeles Times . Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  15. ↑ Nichols, Bill (May 9, 2012). "Indiana primary results: Dick Lugar routed in Senate showdown". Politico . Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  16. ↑ Peleo-Lazar, Christopher (March 10, 2011). "Could Lugar Run As An Independent?". National Journal. Archived from the original on May 13, 2012. Retrieved May 9, 2012.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Endorsements | Dick Lugar for U.S. Senate Archived November 21, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  18. ↑ "Santorum endorses in Indiana race". CNN . May 4, 2012.
  19. 1 2 Will, George F. (October 21, 2011). "Richard Lugar, the unlikely target of conservatives". The Washington Post .
  20. 1 2 3 "Many Indiana Republican Mayors Endorse Lugar". Archived from the original on November 22, 2011. Retrieved November 13, 2011.
  21. 1 2 [ dead link ]
  22. 1 2 [ dead link ]
  23. ↑ "Luntz Predicts Luga Re-Election". Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved March 22, 2012.
  24. ↑ "McCain vs. Palin in Indiana Senate race". CNN . April 27, 2012.
  25. ↑ "Lugar, who turns 80 in April, is suddenly an endangered species—a rare bipartisan moderate in an age of Tea Party absolutism". The Daily Beast. March 13, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  26. 1 2 [ dead link ]
  27. ↑ [ dead link ]
  28. ↑ [ dead link ]
  29. ↑ Catanese, David (September 23, 2011). "Sharron Angle's first endorsement - David Catanese". Politico . Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  30. ↑ "Michele Bachmann endorses Richard Mourdock in Indiana Senate race | The Ticket - Yahoo News". Yahoo! News. May 2, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 "Mourdock : Republican : U.S. Senate". Richardmourdock.com. Archived from the original on May 15, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  32. ↑ "Herman Cain Endorses Mourdock Over Lugar : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com. August 16, 2011. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  33. ↑ "Lugar Rival in Indiana Wins Backing of Steve Forbes : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com. May 31, 2011. Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  34. ↑ Malkin, Michelle (February 2, 2012). "For Liljenquist, Mourdock, and Cruz: A Tea Party Senate takeover «". Michelle Malkin. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  35. ↑ "Defeat the RINOs!". YouTube. February 18, 2012. Archived from the original on December 21, 2021. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  36. ↑ "Grover Norquist to endorse Mourdock after Lugar rejects no-tax pledge | The Ticket - Yahoo News". Yahoo! News. May 1, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  37. ↑ Rose, Rachel (April 27, 2012). "Sarah Palin endorses Richard Mourdock in Indiana Senate - ABC News". ABC News. Archived from the original on November 1, 2013. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  38. ↑ Walshe, Shushannah (May 8, 2012). "Rick Santorum Backs Richard Mourdock in Indiana Senate Race". ABC News.
  39. 1 2 "Citizens United Backs Lugar's Challenger - NationalJournal.com". Hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com. August 3, 2011. Archived from the original on October 19, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  40. ↑ Archived April 8, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  41. ↑ "Club for Growth Backs Mourdock | National Review Online". nationalreview.com. February 14, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  42. ↑ [ dead link ]
  43. ↑ "NRA-PVF Endorses Richard Mourdock for U.S. Senate in Indiana Republican Primary". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. March 7, 2012. Archived from the original on August 12, 2014. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  44. ↑ Joseph, Cameron (March 6, 2012). "National Rifle Association will endorse Lugar challenger Wednesday - The Hill's Ballot Box". The Hill. Archived from the original on June 15, 2013. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  45. ↑ Joseph, Cameron. "Sen. Lugar's GOP challenger wins endorsement of Tea Party Express - The Hill's Ballot Box". The Hill . Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  46. ↑ Toeplitz, Shira (May 8, 2011). "Donnelly to Announce Senate Run in Indiana". Roll Call . Retrieved June 9, 2012.
  47. ↑ Bradner, Eric (February 21, 2011). "Ellsworth's name will not appear on 2012 ballot". Evansville Courier & Press . Retrieved February 21, 2011.
  48. ↑ "Baron Hill won't seek office in 2012". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  49. ↑ "Indiana Primary Election, May 8, 2012-United States Senator". Secretary of State of Indiana . June 5, 2012. Retrieved June 9, 2012.
  50. ↑ Francisco, Brian (September 20, 2011). "Libertarian enters Senate contest". The Journal Gazette . Archived from the original on March 30, 2012. Retrieved September 27, 2011.
  51. ↑ "Completes Fall Debate Schedule". Indiana Debate Commission. September 11, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  52. ↑ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 19, 2012.
  53. ↑ "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Indiana Senate". OpenSecrets. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 19, 2012.
  54. ↑ "Top Industries 2012 Race: Indiana Senate". OpenSecrets. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 19, 2010.
  55. 1 2 Raju, Manu. "Richard Mourdock under fire for rape remarks" . Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  56. ↑ WONG, SCOTT. "Senate 5: Is it over for Mourdock?" . Retrieved October 25, 2012.
  57. ↑ "Richard Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy". Associated Press. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  58. ↑ McAuliff, Michael (October 23, 2012). "Richard Mourdock On Abortion: Pregnancy From Rape Is 'Something God Intended'". HuffPost . Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  59. ↑ Richard Mourdock. "Mourdock press release on controversy". Mourdock Senate Campaign. Archived from the original on January 15, 2013. Retrieved February 18, 2013.
  60. ↑ Krieg, Gregory; Good, Chris. "Mourdock Rape Comment Puts GOP on Defense". ABC News .
  61. 1 2 Lobianco, Tom. "GOP's Mourdock stands by rape, abortion remark". Associated Press. Retrieved October 25, 2012.
  62. ↑ Lobianco, Tom. "Mourdock: God at work when rape leads to pregnancy". HuffPost . Retrieved October 24, 2012.
  63. ↑ Richard Mourdock's response to abortion question provokes controversy in Indiana Senate debate In Indianapolis Star October 24, 2012
  64. ↑ "Republican Senate candidate defends rape comment, expresses regret for phrasing". Fox News. October 24, 2012. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  65. ↑ "Scott Brown rejects Richard Mourdock's rape comment". Associated Press. Archived from the original on October 27, 2012. Retrieved October 25, 2012.
  66. ↑ Crittenden, Michael R. (October 24, 2012). "Mourdock's Rape Remark Sets Off Firestorm". The Wall Street Journal . Retrieved October 25, 2012.
  67. ↑ Memoli, Michael A. (October 24, 2012). "Obama objects to Mourdock's rape comment, skewers Trump". Los Angeles Times . Retrieved October 25, 2012.
  68. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report . Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  69. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  70. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  71. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  72. ↑ "Election Results". Indiana of Secretary of State. November 28, 2012. Retrieved December 13, 2012.
  73. ↑ "Daily Kos".
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