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Turnout | 55.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Heinrich: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Rich: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich won re-election to a second term. [1] His opponents were Republican nominee and businessman Mick Rich and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, a two-term Republican Governor of New Mexico and two-time candidate for President of the United States.
The candidate filing deadline was March 13, 2018. The Republican and Democratic primary elections were held June 5, 2018. [2] Johnson's results were the highest results for a Libertarian candidate in New Mexico history.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 152,145 | 100% | |
Total votes | 152,145 | 100% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mick Rich | 67,502 | 100% | |
Total votes | 67,502 | 100% |
On July 30, 2018, nominee Aubrey Dunn withdrew from the race. On August 4, former governor Gary Johnson was formally nominated by the Libertarian Party of New Mexico as Dunn's replacement. [8] Johnson accepted his party's nomination on August 13. [9]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Aubrey Dunn | 623 | 100% | |
Total votes | 623 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [39] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [40] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [41] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
Fox News [42] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
CNN [43] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [44] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [45] | Safe D | November 6, 2018 |
^Highest rating given
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Mick Rich (R) | Gary Johnson (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 47% | 33% | 11% | 9% |
Carroll Strategies Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | November 1, 2018 | 1,202 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 38% | 8% | 3% |
Research & Polling, Inc. | October 26 – November 1, 2018 | 993 | ± 3.1% | 51% | 31% | 12% | 6% |
Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 936 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 32% | 16% | 5% |
Pacific Market Research | October 19–24, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 28% | 22% | 11% |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | September 20–24, 2018 | 932 | – | 36% | 10% | 28% | 26% |
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) | September 16–17, 2018 | 900 | – | 38% | 10% | 28% | 24% |
Research & Polling, Inc. | September 7–13, 2018 | 966 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 26% | 16% | – |
In Lux Research (L-Elect Liberty PAC) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | August 2018 | 900 | – | 38% | 13% | 28% | 21% |
Emerson College | August 17–18, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 39% | 11% | 21% | 30% |
GQR Research (D-TMI) Archived August 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | August 2–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 48% | 33% | 17% | 2% |
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) | August 1–5, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 29% | 22% | – |
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) | July 31 – August 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 6% |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) Archived September 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | July 2018 | 500 | – | 39% | 25% | 23% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Mick Rich (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Tarrance Group (R-Rich) | July 31 – August 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 37% | 8% |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | July 2018 | 500 | – | 47% | 29% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Gary Johnson (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies (D-Heinrich) | August 1–5, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 38% | – |
In Lux Research (L) | July 28–29, 2018 | 525 | – | 40% | 42% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Mick Rich (R) | Aubrey Dunn (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | July 2018 | 500 | – | 47% | 30% | 7% | 16% |
Carroll Strategies | June 15–16, 2018 | 1,199 | ± 2.8% | 50% | 39% | 5% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 376,998 | 54.09% | +3.08% | |
Republican | Mick Rich | 212,813 | 30.53% | -14.75% | |
Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 107,201 | 15.38% | N/A | |
Total votes | 697,012 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
Martin Heinrich Democrat | Mick Rich Republican | Gary Johnson Libertarian | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes |
Bernalillo | 140,082 | 58.1% | 61,932 | 25.7% | 39,274 | 16.3% | 241,288 |
Catron | 550 | 26.9% | 1,075 | 58.4% | 217 | 11.8% | 1,842 |
Chaves | 5,279 | 31.7% | 8,727 | 52.4% | 2,666 | 16.0% | 16,672 |
Cibola | 3,924 | 55.1% | 1,842 | 25.9% | 1,355 | 19.0% | 7,121 |
Colfax | 2,333 | 49.9% | 1,615 | 34.5% | 731 | 15.6% | 4,679 |
Curry | 2,793 | 27.4% | 5,896 | 57.9% | 1,498 | 14.7% | 10,187 |
De Baca | 267 | 33.2% | 342 | 42.5% | 196 | 24.4% | 805 |
Doña Ana | 34,651 | 57.0% | 18,101 | 29.8% | 8,029 | 13.2% | 60,781 |
Eddy | 4,834 | 30.7% | 8,826 | 56.0% | 2,095 | 13.3% | 15,755 |
Grant | 6,763 | 57.3% | 3,598 | 30.5% | 1,442 | 12.2% | 11,803 |
Guadalupe | 1,094 | 65.2% | 292 | 17.4% | 292 | 17.4% | 1,678 |
Harding | 198 | 41.2% | 199 | 41.4% | 84 | 17.5% | 481 |
Hidalgo | 790 | 49.5% | 607 | 38.1% | 198 | 12.4% | 1,595 |
Lea | 3,331 | 24.1% | 8,882 | 64.2% | 1,628 | 11.8% | 13,841 |
Lincoln | 2,617 | 33.3% | 4,122 | 52.5% | 1,111 | 14.2% | 7,850 |
Los Alamos | 5,798 | 56.3% | 2,576 | 25.0% | 1,926 | 18.7% | 10,300 |
Luna | 3,005 | 48.9% | 2,313 | 37.7% | 823 | 13.4% | 6,141 |
McKinley | 12,409 | 67.5% | 2,915 | 15.9% | 3,049 | 16.6% | 18,373 |
Mora | 1,564 | 67.4% | 372 | 16.0% | 386 | 16.6% | 2,322 |
Otero | 6,370 | 37.2% | 8,460 | 49.4% | 2,291 | 13.4% | 17,121 |
Quay | 1,016 | 32.9% | 1,534 | 49.7% | 537 | 17.4% | 3,087 |
Rio Arriba | 8,773 | 68.8% | 1,945 | 15.3% | 2,035 | 16.0% | 12,753 |
Roosevelt | 1,277 | 27.6% | 2,606 | 56.3% | 750 | 16.2% | 4,633 |
San Juan | 12,485 | 33.4% | 18,002 | 48.2% | 6,876 | 18.4% | 37,363 |
San Miguel | 6,609 | 71.6% | 1,298 | 14.1% | 1,323 | 14.3% | 9,230 |
Sandoval | 28,198 | 50.9% | 17,785 | 32.1% | 9,397 | 17.0% | 55,380 |
Santa Fe | 49,994 | 74.4% | 9,546 | 14.2% | 7,642 | 11.4% | 67,182 |
Sierra | 1,917 | 40.5% | 2,048 | 43.3% | 767 | 16.2% | 4,732 |
Socorro | 3,409 | 54.7% | 1,700 | 27.3% | 1,129 | 18.1% | 6,238 |
Taos | 10,838 | 74.7% | 1,556 | 10.7% | 2,112 | 14.6% | 14,506 |
Torrance | 1,982 | 36.9% | 2,433 | 45.3% | 951 | 17.7% | 5,366 |
Union | 334 | 22.8% | 878 | 60.0% | 252 | 17.2% | 1,464 |
Valencia | 11,514 | 47.1% | 8,790 | 35.0% | 4,139 | 16.9% | 24,443 |
Heinrich won all 3 congressional districts. [47]
District | Heinrich | Rich | Johnson | Representative |
---|---|---|---|---|
1st | 57.55% | 26.28% | 16.17% | Deb Haaland |
2nd | 45.56% | 40.17% | 14.27% | Xochitl Torres Small |
3rd | 57.52% | 27.0% | 15.48% | Ben Ray Luján |
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Gary Earl Johnson is an American businessman and politician who served as the 29th governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003 as a member of the Republican Party. He has been a member of the Libertarian Party since 2011 and was the party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 and 2016 elections. He was also the Libertarian nominee in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in New Mexico.
Martin Trevor Heinrich is an American businessman and politician serving as the senior United States senator from New Mexico, a seat he has held since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, Heinrich served as the U.S. representative from New Mexico's 1st congressional district from 2009 to 2013. He is the dean of New Mexico's congressional delegation.
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