2018 Maryland gubernatorial election

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2018 Maryland gubernatorial election
Flag of Maryland.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2022  
Turnout59.06% Increase2.svg 11.83% [1]
  Larry Hogan (2021) (cropped).jpg Ben Jealous crop.jpg
Nominee Larry Hogan Ben Jealous
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Boyd Rutherford Susan Turnbull
Popular vote1,275,6441,002,639
Percentage55.4%43.5%

Maryland Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
2018 Maryland gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
MD Governor 2018.svg
Hogan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Jealous:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data

Governor before election

Larry Hogan
Republican

Elected Governor

Larry Hogan
Republican

The 2018 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of the governor, lieutenant governor, and all members of the Maryland General Assembly. Incumbent governor Larry Hogan and Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford, both Republicans, were re-elected to a second term against Democrat Ben Jealous, the former NAACP CEO, and his running mate Susan Turnbull. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in states carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

Hogan became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win re-election, and the first since 1954. [2] This was the first Maryland gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

As of 2023, this is the last time that a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland.

Background

At the presidential level, Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large amount of Democratic voters in the Washington metropolitan area and Baltimore City. Maryland has not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988, and the state has not been within 15% since 2004; Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points over Donald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeated John McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).

Hogan was elected governor in 2014, defeating then-lieutenant governor Anthony Brown by a margin of 51–47; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year. [3] Prior to Hogan's victory, Bob Ehrlich, elected in 2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in 2006 by Martin O'Malley and defeated again in 2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.

In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating. [4] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans). [5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Hogan
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Judges
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results [41]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 210,935 100.00%
Total votes210,935 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

  • Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, policy consultant and wife of U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings [60]
  • Valerie Ervin, former senior advisor to the Working Families Party and former Montgomery County Councilmember [61]
    • Running mate: Marisol Johnson, former vice chair of the Baltimore County Board of Education and small businesswoman [62]
    • (Valerie Ervin, who had been the running mate of Kevin Kamenetz before he died on May 10, became a candidate for governor with Marisol Johnson as running mate on May 17. This came too late to change the primary ballot, so notices were posted at polling places informing voters that votes for Kamenetz and Ervin would be counted as votes for Ervin and Johnson. On June 12, Ervin withdrew from the race. [63] )

Declined

Endorsements

Rushern Baker
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
  • Valerie Ervin, senior adviser to the Working Families Party and former gubernatorial candidate [82]
  • David Trone, businessman [17]
Newspapers and magazines
Valerie Ervin (withdrew)
U.S. representatives
Ben Jealous
Newspapers and magazines
U.S. presidents
U.S. vice presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Kevin Kamenetz (deceased)
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
  • Cathy Bevins, member of the Baltimore County Council [105]
  • Julian E. Jones Jr., member of the Baltimore County Council [105]
Individuals
Rich Madaleno
U.S. representatives
Attorney General
State senators
  • Susan Lee, state senator
  • Will Smith, state senator
State delegates
  • Al Carr, state delegate
  • Jeff Waldstreicher, state delegate
  • Sheila Hixson, state delegate
  • Ana Sol-Gutierrez, state delegate
  • Karen Young, state delegate
  • Jim Gilchrist, state delegate
  • Marice Morales, state delegate
  • Bonnie Cullison, state delegate
  • David Moon, state delegate
  • Anne Kaiser, state delegate
  • Eric Luedtke, state delegate
Local officials
  • David Lublin, former mayor of Chevy Chase [17]
  • Chris Trumbauer, Anne Arundel County Councilmember
  • Peter Benjamin, Garrett Park Mayor
  • Mary Flynn, Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Barney Rush, Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Scott Fosler, Chevy Chase Councilmember and former Montgomery County Councilmember and former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Kathy Strom, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Pat Burda, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Linna Barnes, former Chevy Chase Mayor
  • Vicky Taplin, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Lance Hoffman, former Chevy Chase Councilmember
  • Pat Baptiste, former Village of Chevy Chase Mayor and former Montgomery County Planning Board member
  • Shirley Brandman, former Montgomery County Board of Education member
  • Meredith Wellington, former Montgomery County Planning Board member
Organizations
Individuals
Alec Ross
Jim Shea
Elected officials
State Delegates
  • Cory McCray, state delegate
  • Antonio Hayes, state delegate
Local officials
  • Shannon Sneed, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • John Bullock, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Kristerfer Burnett, Member of Baltimore City Council
  • Brandon Scott, Member of Baltimore City Council

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rushern
Baker
Valerie
Ervin
Ben
Jealous
Kevin
Kamenetz
Richard
Madaleno
Jim
Shea
Krish
Vignarajah
OtherUndecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018505± 4.5%25%7%23%9%6%5%2% [lower-alpha 1] 22%
OpinionWorks May 29 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%16%5%16%4%4%4%7% [lower-alpha 2] 44%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018532± 6.0%16%8%21%6%4%4%2% [lower-alpha 3] 39%
Mason-Dixon February 20–24, 2018500± 4.5%26%14%15%4%3%2%3% [lower-alpha 4] 32%
Goucher College February 12–18, 2018409± 4.8%19%10%12%2%2%2%6% [111] 47%
Gonzales Research Archived 2018-01-28 at the Wayback Machine December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018501± 4.5%24%14%14%5%1%2%8% [lower-alpha 5] 33%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017400± 5.0%28%10%11%3%<1%1%1% [lower-alpha 6] 46%
Goucher College September 14–18, 2017324± 5.4%13%6%8%2%2%1%22% [lower-alpha 7] 44%
Notes
  1. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe and James Jones with <1%
  2. Alec Ross with 1%, someone else with 6%
  3. Alec Ross with 2%
  4. Alec Ross with 2%, Ralph Jaffe 1%
  5. Maya Rockeymoore 6%, Alec Ross with 1%, Ralph Jaffe with 0%
  6. Alec Ross with 1%</
  7. Doug Gansler 11%, Maya Rockeymoore 8%, Alec Ross with 1%. Other 2%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
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Jealous--40-50%
Jealous--30-40%
Baker--30-40%
Baker--40-50% Maryland Governor Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Jealous—40–50%
  •   Jealous—30–40%
  •   Baker—30–40%
  •   Baker—40–50%
Democratic primary results [41]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ben Jealous 231,895 39.6%
Democratic Rushern Baker 171,69629.3%
Democratic Jim Shea48,6478.3%
Democratic Krish O'Mara Vignarajah 48,0418.2%
Democratic Richard Madaleno 34,1845.8%
Democratic Kevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin18,8513.2%
Democratic Alec Ross 13,7802.4%
Democratic Ralph Jaffe9,4051.6%
Democratic James Jones9,1881.6%
Total votes585,687 100.0%

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018, deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties. [114]

Green State Central Committee Designation [114]
April 20 – April 25
CandidateDelegates in favorDelegates againstDelegates not voting
Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers1505

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Shawn Quinn, nominee for governor in 2014 and nominee for the House of Delegates in 2010 [115]
    • Running mate: Christina Smith
CandidateVotes in favorVotes againstNot voting
Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith3210

General election

Debates

Larry Hogan and Ben Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by the Maryland Public Television. [116]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [117] Likely ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [118] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [119] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [120] Likely RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [121] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [122] Likely RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [123] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [124] [lower-alpha 1] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [125] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [126] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Ben
Jealous (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Maryland October 4–7, 2018648 LV± 4.5%58%38%0%3%
814 RV± 4.0%56%36%0%2%
Gonzales Research October 1–6, 2018806± 3.5%54%36%2% [lower-alpha 1] 9%
Mason-Dixon September 24–26, 2018625± 4.0%52%37%2% [lower-alpha 1] 9%
Goucher College September 11–16, 2018472± 4.5%54%32%2% [lower-alpha 1] 9%
Gonzales Research August 1–8, 2018831± 3.5%52%36%1% [lower-alpha 2] 11%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous) July 10–14, 2018601± 4.0%49%40%11%
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%51%34%14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018968± 4.5%51%39%10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%44%31%22%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%50%33%17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%49%36%15%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%49%33%18%
Notes
  1. 1 2 3 Shawn Quinn (L) and Ian Schlakman (G) with 1%
  2. Shawn Quinn (L) with 1%, Ian Schlakman (G) with 0%
Hypothetical polling
with Rushern Baker
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Rushern
Baker (D)
Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%48%37%15%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018968± 4.5%51%39%9%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%44%31%22%
Burton Research & Strategies (R) March 4–11, 2018600± 4.0%54%29%15%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%51%36%13%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%47%37%16%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%46%39%15%
with Richard Madaleno
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Richard
Madaleno (D)
Undecided
Gonzales Research June 4–10, 2018800± 3.5%50%36%14%
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%50%40%10%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%45%27%26%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%49%30%21%
with Alec Ross
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Alec
Ross (D)
Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%55%31%13%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%46%26%26%
with Jim Shea
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Jim
Shea (D)
Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%53%35%13%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%47%27%25%
with Krish Vignarajah
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Krish
Vignarajah (D)
Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%54%35%11%
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%45%25%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Generic
Democrat
OtherUndecided
Goucher College February 12–17, 2018658± 3.8%47%43%10%
GBA Strategies (D) November 14–18, 2017600± 4.0%45%35%
OpinionWorks October 25 – November 7, 2017850± 3.3%43%28%4%24%
Washington Post/University of Maryland March 19–22, 2017914± 4.0%39%36%3%22%
Washington Post/University of Maryland March 16–19, 2017914± 4.0%41%37%2%20%
with Valerie Ervin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Valerie
Ervin (D)
Undecided
University of Maryland May 29 – June 3, 2018465–497± 6.0–6.5%51%38%11%
with Kevin Kamenetz
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Kevin
Kamenetz (D)
Undecided
Goucher College April 14–19, 2018617± 3.9%45%28%23%
Burton Research & Strategies (R) March 4–11, 2018600± 4.0%57%26%15%
Mason-Dixon February 20–22, 2018625± 4.0%49%34%17%
Gonzales Research December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018823± 3.5%48%34%18%
Mason-Dixon September 27–30, 2017625± 4.0%48%35%17%
with John Delaney
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
John
Delaney (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016879± 3.3%48%29%24%
with Tom Perez
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Larry
Hogan (R)
Tom
Perez (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016879± 3.3%48%24%28%

Results

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018 [127]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Larry Hogan (incumbent) 1,275,644 55.35% +4.32%
Democratic Ben Jealous 1,002,63943.51%-3.74%
Libertarian Shawn Quinn13,2410.57%-0.89%
Green Ian Schlakman11,1750.48%N/A
Write-in 1,8130.08%-0.18%
Total votes2,304,512 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Results by congressional district

Hogan carried 6 of 8 congressional districts, including 5 held by Democrats. This included the district of then-House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, which Hogan lost to Hoyer in 1992.

DistrictLarry
Hogan
Ben
Jealous
Elected
Representative
1st 79.20%19.69% Andy Harris
2nd 55.94%42.90% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 55.80%43.03% John Sarbanes
4th 40.29%58.74% Anthony Brown
5th 51.91%47.04% Steny Hoyer
6th 59.41%39.31% David Trone
7th 43.87%54.83% Elijah Cummings
8th 53.16%45.76% Jamie Raskin

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