2012 United States Senate election in Montana

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2012 United States Senate election in Montana
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  Jon Tester, official 110th Congress photo.jpg Denny Rehberg, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Jon Tester Denny Rehberg Dan Cox
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote236,123218,05131,892
Percentage48.6%44.9%6.6%
2012 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Tester:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Rehberg:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.9% of the vote. [1] [2]

Democratic primary

Candidate

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Endorsements

Denny Rehberg

Results

The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.

U.S. Senate election in Montana Republican primary [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Denny Rehberg 105,632 76.2
Republican Dennis Teske33,07923.8
Total votes138,711 100.0

General election

Candidates

Debates

Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain. [8] The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers. [9]

Campaign

Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.

As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars. [10]

On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate. [3] Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010, [11] but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines would later be elected in the other U.S. Senate seat two years later. [5]

As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street. [10]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers. [12] Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust. [13] In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation. [14] The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates. [15]

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections. [16]

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Jon Tester (D)$11,699,935$10,377,126$1,334,858$0
Denny Rehberg (R)$8,420,655$7,249,285$1,171,369$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [17] [18]

Top contributors

  • Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. [19] [20]
Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
League of Conservation Voters $82,332Alliance Resource Partners$36,500
Visa Inc. $47,400 Exxon Mobil $29,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co $47,000 Las Vegas Sands $25,000
Thornton & Naumes$46,600Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
WPP Group $38,350Murray Energy$24,068
Blackstone Group $34,000 Devon Energy $20,400
Girardi & Keese$30,000 Arch Coal $19,000
Pederson Group$29,500Yellowstone Bank$17,500
Comcast Corp $28,500 Marathon Oil $13,750
First Interstate BancSystem $28,400 Koch Industries $13,500

Top industries

[21]

Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
Lawyers/Law firms $1,084,445 Oil & Gas $327,969
Retired$534,716 Financial Institutions $277,474
Lobbyists $506,931Retired$268,693
Financial Institutions$438,763 Leadership PACs $267,000
Leadership PACs$345,750 Mining $169,318
Commercial Banks $299,818Lobbyists$150,050
Real Estate $280,945Real Estate$121,080
Insurance $211,009Misc Finance$94,655
Misc Finance$188,750Lawyers/Law Firms$89,338
Health Professionals $181,483 Republican/Conservative$76,855

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [22] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [24] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [25] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jon
Tester (D)		Denny
Rehberg (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%46%48%—6%
Mason-Dixon March 14–16, 2011625±4.0%46%45%—9%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819±3.4%45%47%—8%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625±2.4%45%47%4%5%
Rasmussen Reports February 22, 2012500±4.5%44%47%6%3%
Rasmussen Reports April 2, 2012500±4.5%44%47%—9%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012934±3.2%48%43%9%—
Rasmussen Reports May 2, 2012450±5.0%43%53%2%2%
Rasmussen Reports June 18, 2012450±5.0%47%49%2%2%
Rasmussen Reports August 20, 2012500±4.5%43%47%5%5%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012656±3.8%45%43%8%3%
Mason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012625±4.0%45%48%1%6%
MSU October 9, 2012477±4.6%40%43%5%12%
Public Policy Polling October 8–10, 2012737±3.6%45%43%8%4%
Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2012500±4.5%48%48%3%2%
Public Policy Polling/LCV October 15–16, 2012806±3.5%46%44%7%3%
Pharos Research [ permanent dead link ]October 19–21, 2012828±3.4%48%46%—5%
Pharos Research October 26–28, 2012799±3.5%48%47%—5%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2012500±4.5%49%48%2%2%
Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau October 29–31, 20126254.0%45%49%1%5%
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 20128363.4%48%46%4%2%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jon
Tester (D)		Steve
Daines (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%48%37%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jon
Tester (D)		Neil
Livingstone (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%46%35%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jon
Tester (D)		Marc
Racicot (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%42%49%—9%

Results

Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.

United States Senate election in Montana, 2012 [26]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 236,123 48.58% -0.58%
Republican Denny Rehberg 218,05144.86%-3.43%
Libertarian Dan Cox31,8926.56%+4.01%
Total votes486,066 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

CountyTesterVotesRehbergVotesCoxVotesTotal
Beaverhead 31.84%1,53259.77%2,8768.4%4044,812
Big Horn 67.39%3,14128.08%1,3094.53%2114,661
Blaine 63.88%1,83431.24%8974.88%1402,871
Broadwater 33.01%99557.47%1,7329.52%2873,014
Carbon 45.9%2,69147.55%2,7886.55%3845,863
Carter 15.74%12577.58%6166.68%53794
Cascade 52.47%18,24641.96%14,5895.57%1,93634,771
Chouteau 48.19%1,37446.33%1,3215.47%1562,851
Custer 43.21%2,28349.31%2,6618.38%4525,396
Daniels 32.6%32760.52%6076.88%691,003
Dawson 35.46%1,57156.52%2,5048.01%3554,430
Deer Lodge 69.55%3,12223.37%1,0497.08%3184,489
Fallon 29.78%42259.28%84010.94%1551,407
Fergus 33.94%2,06358.12%3,5337.95%4836,709
Flathead 37.17%16,22355.38%24,1717.45%3,25243,646
Gallatin 51.63%24,78142.47%20,3865.9%2,83448,001
Garfield 14.31%10179.04%5586.66%47708
Glacier 69.6%3,11824.84%1,1135.56%2494,480
Golden Valley 36.25%17457.5%2756.25%30480
Granite 38.53%65752.49%8958.97%1531,705
Hill 58.93%4,06034.27%2,3616.81%4696,890
Jefferson 40.92%2,68551.65%3,3897.42%4876,561
Judith Basin 35.94%44157.13%7016.93%851,227
Lake 49.25%6,56142.92%5,7177.83%1,04313,321
Lewis and Clark 54.34%18,18940.17%13,4465.49%1,83933,474
Liberty 40.48%1,34153.12%1,7606.09%611,002
Lincoln 34.62%3,09156.90%5,0808.48%7578,928
Madison 33.2%1,51658.91%2,6907.88%3604,566
McCone 32.9%33261.05%6166.05%611,009
Meagher 34.93%34255.57%5449.5%93979
Mineral 42.66%86647.44%9639.9%2012,030
Missoula 63.49%36,48831.64%18,1844.87%2,79957,471
Musselshell 28.58%68461.14%1,46310.28%2462,393
Park 48.22%4,26043.94%3,8827.84%6938,835
Petroleum 24.41%7367.56%2028.03%24299
Phillips 27.2%60765.64%1,4657.17%1602,232
Pondera 43.53%1,18749.69%1,3556.78%1852,727
Powder River 23.32%23970.15%7196.54%671,025
Powell 41.75%1,16751.2%1,4317.05%1972,795
Prairie 33.33%23659.32%4207.34%52708
Ravalli 38.65%8,60253.87%11,9907.48%1,66622,258
Richland 30.18%1,40662.95%2,9336.87%3204,659
Roosevelt 61.41%2,26933.42%1,2355.17%1913,695
Rosebud 48.0%1,70444.45%1,5787.55%2683,550
Sanders 34.31%2,04454.04%3,21911.65%6945,957
Sheridan 42.23%81251.74%9956.03%1161,923
Silver Bow 69.29%11,67324.62%4,1486.09%1,02616,847
Stillwater 36.66%1,73256.84%2,6846.52%3084,724
Sweet Grass 31.19%66162.67%1,3286.13%1302,119
Teton 40.48%1,34153.12%1,7606.4%2123,313
Toole 34.01%72157.03%1,2098.96%1902,120
Treasure 33.98%15754.55%25211.47%53462
Valley 44.98%1,74946.91%1,8248.1%3153,888
Wheatland 36.79%36556.35%5596.85%68992
Wibaux 27.39%14962.32%33910.29%56544
Yellowstone 47.15%32,56546.44%32,0776.42%4,43269,074

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Source: [27] [28]

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". Billings Gazette . Retrieved November 21, 2010.
  2. ↑ Cohen, Patricia (November 2020). "Montana". The New York Times.
  3. 1 2 Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette . Retrieved February 5, 2011.
  4. ↑ Dennison, Mike (January 19, 2012). "Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette . Retrieved January 20, 2012.
  5. 1 2 Johnson, Charles S. (February 3, 2011). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". Billings Gazette . Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  6. ↑ "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana . Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  7. ↑ "Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette . March 8, 2012. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
  8. ↑ Raju, Manu (October 5, 2012). "Senate battle hits Big Sky country". Politico.
  9. ↑ "Debates to feature matchups in House, Senate and governor's races". Billings Gazette. September 26, 2012.
  10. 1 2 Mike Dennison (July 15, 2011). "Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money". missoulian.com. Retrieved July 25, 2011.
  11. ↑ Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". KTVM-TV . Archived from the original on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
  12. ↑ Gouras, Matt (September 30, 2010). "GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand". Missoulian TV. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
  13. ↑ McAuliff, Michael (November 11, 2011). "Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE)". Huffington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  14. ↑ Drajem, Mark (October 17, 2011). "EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review". Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  15. ↑ "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157". United States Senate. October 6, 2011. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  16. ↑ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  17. ↑ Tester Campaign Finances
  18. ↑ Rehberg Campaign Finances
  19. ↑ OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
  20. ↑ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 OpenSecrets
  21. ↑ finances by industry
  22. ↑ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  23. ↑ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  24. ↑ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  25. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. ↑ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  27. ↑ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 5, 2016. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  28. ↑ "2012 General Election Results By County". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
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