2012 Missouri gubernatorial election

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2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
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Nominee Jay Nixon Dave Spence
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,494,0561,160,265
Percentage54.77%42.53%
2012 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2012 Missouri gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
Nixon:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     80–90%
Spence:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. As of 2023, this was the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri. This is the last time that a gubernatorial nominee and a lieutenant gubernatorial nominee of different political parties were elected governor and lieutenant governor in Missouri.

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 269,865 86.0%
Democratic William Campbell25,7218.2%
Democratic Clay Thunderhawk18,2285.8%
Total votes313,814 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Randles		Fred
Sauer		Dave
Spence		John
Weiler		Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 4–5, 2012590± 4.0%15%12%42%3%29%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012400± 5.0%15%1%41%3%40%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012430± 4.7%11%4%32%1%43%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012574± 4.1%15%—11%—74%

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dave Spence 333,578 59.9%
Republican Bill Randles90,65116.3%
Republican Fred Sauer83,69515.0%
Republican John Weiler49,0068.8%
Total votes556,930 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Denied ballot access

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jim Higgins 2,500 100.0%
Total votes2,500 100.0%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [4] Lean DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5] Likely DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [6] Likely DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [7] Lean DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Dave
Spence (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012835± 3.4%53%45%—2%
SurveyUSA October 28–November 3, 2012589± 4.1%48%39%5%8%
Mason-Dixon October 23–25, 2012625± 4%48%42%—9%
Public Policy Polling October 19–21, 2012582± 4.1%51%40%—8%
Public Policy Polling October 1–3, 2012700± 3.7%54%35%—12%
Public Policy Polling August 20, 2012500± 4.4%46%37%—16%
Survey USA August 9–12, 2012585± 4.1%51%37%5%6%
Chilenski Strategies August 8, 2012663± 3.8%53%39%—9%
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012625± 4.0%48%39%—13%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012602± 4.0%45%34%—21%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012582± 4.1%47%27%—26%
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Peter
Kinder		Bill
Randles		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%34%14%53%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Peter
Kinder		Someone
else		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%22%35%43%
General election
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Bill
Randles (R)		OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon July 23–25, 2012625± 4.0%50%35%—15%
Public Policy Polling May 24–27, 2012602± 4.0%46%32%—22%
Public Policy Polling January 27–29, 2012582± 4.1%47%29%—24%
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%45%24%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Matt
Blunt (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%50%37%—13%
Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%48%38%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		John
Danforth (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%39%45%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Kenny
Hulshof (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%51%34%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Peter
Kinder (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%50%31%—18%
Public Policy Polling April 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9%48%34%—18%
Public Policy Polling March 3–6, 2011612± 4.0%45%38%—17%
Public Policy Polling Nov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3%47%39%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Sarah
Steelman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling Nov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3%46%35%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Nixon (D)		Jim
Talent (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%47%38%—14%

Results

Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012 [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jay Nixon (incumbent) 1,494,056 54.77% -3.63%
Republican Dave Spence 1,160,26542.53%+3.04%
Libertarian Jim Higgins73,5092.70%+1.59%
Write-in 530.00%0.00%
Total votes2,727,883 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts. [9]

DistrictNixonSpenceRepresentative
1st 81.38%13.21% Lacy Clay
2nd 50.67%47.37% Todd Akin (112th Congress)
Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
3rd 48.20%49.08% Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
4th 49.16%47.46% Vicky Hartzler
5th 66.00%31.20% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 50.09%46.96% Sam Graves
7th 43.75%53.39% Billy Long
8th 48.27%49.06% Jo Ann Emerson

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Redden, Susan (April 2, 2012). "Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23". The Joplin Globe . Retrieved May 25, 2012.
  2. ↑ "Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election". Associated Press. December 16, 2010. Archived from the original on July 29, 2012. Retrieved December 16, 2010.
  3. ↑ "Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy". August 25, 2011.
  4. ↑ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  5. ↑ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  6. ↑ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  7. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  8. ↑ "State of Missouri - Election Night Results".
  9. ↑ "Daily Kos".
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