2012 United States presidential election in Iowa

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2012 United States presidential election in Iowa
Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
  2008 November 6, 2012 2016  
  President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6 cropped.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote60
Popular vote822,544730,617
Percentage51.99%46.18%

Iowa Presidential Election Results 2012.svg
IA President 2012.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Contents

Obama won Iowa with 51.99% of the vote to Romney's 46.18%, a Democratic victory margin of 5.81% - a markedly closer result than in 2008, when the Democrats won Iowa with a margin of 9.54%. Romney picked up wins in 16 counties that Obama had won in 2008, most of which were in the western half of the state, while only one county, (Woodbury), flipped in the opposite direction.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that a Democratic presidential nominee has carried Iowa, any of its congressional districts, or the following counties: Allamakee, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan, Cedar, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clarke, Clayton, Clinton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Fayette, Floyd, Howard, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jones, Lee, Louisa, Marshall, Mitchell, Muscatine, Poweshiek, Tama, Union, Wapello, Webster, Winneshiek, Woodbury, and Worth. This also remains the last election where Iowa voted to the left of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Texas or New Hampshire.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

2012 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses
Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
  2008 January 3, 2012 (2012-01-03) 2016  
  President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg NOTA Option Logo 3x4.svg
Candidate Barack Obama Uncommitted
Home state Illinois N/A
Delegate count623
SDEs8,06587
Percentage (of SDEs)95%5%

On January 3, 2012, the Iowa Democratic Party held statewide caucuses to select delegates to the county conventions. [1] Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed. [1] However, caucus goers also had the option of voting "uncommitted" rather than supporting Obama, and some Occupy movement and anti-war activists urged Democrats to vote "uncommitted" in protest of the Obama administration. [2] [3] [4] Of the 8,152 county convention delegates that were elected by the caucuses, 8,065 (99%) were for Obama and 87 (1%) were uncommitted. [5] In the floor vote taken at the Democratic National Convention, 62 Iowa state delegates voted for Obama. [6] The other 3 of the state's 65 allocated votes were not announced. [6]

Republican caucuses

2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
  2008 January 3, 2012 (2012-01-03) 2016  
  Ron Paul by Gage Skidmore 3 crop.jpg Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6 cropped.jpg Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore (crop 2).jpg
Candidate Ron Paul Mitt Romney Rick Santorum
Home state Texas Massachusetts Pennsylvania
Delegate count2260
Popular vote26,03629,80529,839
Percentage21.43%24.53%24.56%

  Newt Gingrich by Gage Skidmore 3 (cropped).jpg Rick Perry by Gage Skidmore 4 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Newt Gingrich Rick Perry
Home state Georgia Texas
Delegate count00
Popular vote16,16312,557
Percentage13.30%10.33%

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses Detailed Election Results by County, 2012.svg
Santorum:     20–30%     30–40%     60–70%
Romney:     20–30%     30–40%
Paul:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%
Perry:     20–30%     30–40%
Tie:     20–30%

The 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 3, 2012.

Using the media's generally accepted definition of the Iowa Republican caucus as the non-binding secret polling at caucus sites and using the incomplete data available, the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus was the closest race in Iowa caucus history with only a thirty-four vote margin (about 3100th of a percent) separating former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who received 29,839 votes (24.56%), and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who received 29,805 votes (24.53%). Representative Ron Paul of Texas ran a close third, receiving 26,036 votes (21.43%).

Trailing were former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (16,163 votes, 13.30%), Texas governor Rick Perry (12,557 votes, 10.33%), and Representative Michele Bachmann (6,046 votes, 4.98%). Former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr., who skipped campaigning in Iowa to focus on the New Hampshire primary, [7] received 739 votes (0.61%). [8]

In total, 121,501 votes were recorded, [8] setting a record for Iowa Republican caucus turnout; [9] this record was broken in the 2016 election by more than 60,000 votes. [10] However, this total was still far less than the all-time Iowa caucus record in the 2008 Democratic Iowa caucuses, in which 239,000 Democrats voted. The 121,501 votes represent 19.8 percent of active registered Republicans in the state [11] and just 5.4 percent of all Iowans eligible to vote. [12]

However, the vote totals of eight precincts were never counted, so the vote totals are not really known.

The secret polling results at Republican caucus sites were unrelated to the delegate selection process in 2012, although that has been changed for the 2016 election cycle.

If the Iowa 2012 Republican caucuses were regarded as the start of the Republican delegate selection process for the 2012 United States presidential election, the real caucus process was the election of Republican delegates to the county conventions, who would eventually determine the delegates at the state convention in June 2012. This would, in turn, determine the Iowa delegates who would attend the Republican National Convention in August, 2012.

This process rewarded campaign organizations that could not only get supporters to the caucus sites, but get supporters who would be willing to serve as delegates to county conventions and beyond. As a result, Ron Paul was ultimately able to win 22 of the 28 delegates to the national convention and Mitt Romney won the other six. [8]

The 2011–2012 pre-caucus poll results for Iowa had highly volatile results; Gallup polls showed the leading candidate in Iowa change seven times from May 2011 until the caucuses. [13] The 2012 caucuses also set a new record for political expenditures, with $12 million being spent, two-thirds of it from "super PACs" which dominated the campaigns by running highly negative attack ads. [14]

In the August 13 Ames Straw Poll, a traditional straw poll held in Iowa Republican caucuses, Bachmann narrowly defeated Paul, with Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty trailing in third. Following his disappointing showing, Pawlenty dropped out of the race. [15] [16]

Three candidates' debates were held in Iowa over the course the campaign: one on August 11 in Ames ahead of the straw poll; one on December 10, 2011, in Des Moines, and one on December 15 in Sioux City. Several other joint candidates' appearances took place during the caucus campaign outside Iowa. [17]

The day after her unsatisfactory sixth-place performance in Iowa, Bachmann announced she was dropping out of the presidential race. [18] [19] Following his low fifth-place finish, Perry initially announced he was "reassessing" his campaign "to determine whether there is a path forward," but subsequently stated that he would continue on to New Hampshire and South Carolina. [20] [21] [22] [23]

Iowa Republican caucuses, January 3, 2012 [8]
CandidateVotesPercentageProjected delegate countActual
delegates
CNN
[24]
FOX
[25]
Rick Santorum 29,83924.56%7120
Mitt Romney 29,80524.53%7126
Ron Paul 26,03621.43%7022
Newt Gingrich 16,16313.30%200
Rick Perry 12,55710.33%000
Michele Bachmann 6,0464.98%000
Jon Huntsman 7390.61%000
Herman Cain (write-in)450.04%000
Sarah Palin (write-in)230.02%000
Buddy Roemer (write-in)170.01%000
Fred Karger (write-in)100.01%000
Gary Johnson (write-in)80.01%000
Donald Trump (write-in)50.00%000
Paul Ryan (write-in)30.00%000
Rudy Giuliani (write-in)20.00%000
Mike Huckabee (write-in)20.00%000
Ben Lange (write-in)20.00%000
Roy Moore (write-in)20.00%000
Tim Pawlenty (write-in)20.00%000
Condoleezza Rice (write-in)20.00%000
Jared Blankenship (write-in)10.00%000
Pat Buchanan (write-in)10.00%000
John McCain (write-in)10.00%000
Ralph Nader (write-in)10.00%000
Robert Ray (write-in)10.00%000
Scott Walker (write-in)10.00%000
No Preference 1470.12%000
Other400.03%000
Unprojected delegates:54
Total:121,501100.00%282828

General election

Candidates

There were eight candidates on the Iowa ballot in the general election: the two major-party candidates (Barack Obama and Mitt Romney) and six minor candidates. [26]

Polling

Analysts considered Iowa to be a toss-up state—one which either major candidate could plausibly win. [30] A majority of statewide opinion polls have shown Obama tied with or leading Romney. [31] As of October 22,2012, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight estimates that there is a 66% likelihood that Obama will win Iowa's electoral votes. [32] Up until September 2012, polling showed a close race with Obama narrowly leading. In late September 2012, Obama gained momentum and this continued through the first three weeks of October 2012, where he won almost every poll in that time period. In October, when Romney gained momentum in other states, Obama won the majority of the polls conducted. Romney ended up winning the second to last poll, but other than that, Obama won every poll in the last week. The final poll showed Obama leading 50% to 48%, while an average of the last 3 polls showed Obama leading 48% to 46%. [33]

Results

2012 United States presidential election in Iowa [34]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent)822,54451.99%6
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 730,61746.18%0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 12,9260.82%0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 3,7690.24%0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer3,0380.19%0
Independent Jerry Litzel Jim Litzel 1,1960.07%0
Socialist Workers James Harris Alyson Kennedy 4450.03%0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Stefanie Beacham3720.02%0
OthersOthersWrite-Ins8,4690.53%0
Totals1,582,180100.00%6

By county

Barack Obama won 38 counties and Mitt Romney won 61 counties. Barack Obama won majorities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 35 counties and won pluralities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 3 counties. Mitt Romney won majorites in terms of the popular vote percentages in 57 counties and won pluralities in terms of the popular vote percentages in 4 counties.

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
Mitt Romney
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %# %
Adair 1,79044.79%2,11452.90%922.31%-324-8.11%3,996
Adams 1,02847.05%1,10850.71%492.24%-80-3.66%2,185
Allamakee 3,55351.24%3,26447.07%1171.69%2894.17%6,934
Appanoose 2,95147.25%3,16150.62%1332.13%-210-3.37%6,245
Audubon 1,61146.60%1,80252.13%441.27%-191-5.53%3,457
Benton 6,86248.93%6,94049.49%2211.58%-78-0.56%14,023
Black Hawk 39,82159.31%26,23539.07%1,0851.62%13,58620.24%67,141
Boone 7,51252.21%6,55645.57%3202.22%9566.64%14,388
Bremer 6,76350.67%6,40547.99%1781.34%3582.68%13,346
Buchanan 5,91156.11%4,45042.24%1741.65%1,46113.87%10,535
Buena Vista 3,70044.14%4,55454.32%1291.54%-854-10.18%8,383
Butler 3,32944.12%4,10654.42%1101.46%-777-10.30%7,545
Calhoun 2,23842.79%2,89155.28%1011.93%-653-12.49%5,230
Carroll 4,94746.35%5,60152.47%1261.18%-654-6.12%10,674
Cass 2,85839.67%4,21758.53%1301.80%-1,359-18.86%7,205
Cedar 4,97251.53%4,52946.94%1481.53%4434.59%9,649
Cerro Gordo 13,31655.89%10,12842.51%3801.60%3,18813.38%23,824
Cherokee 2,63441.06%3,66257.08%1191.86%-1,028-16.02%6,415
Chickasaw 3,55454.81%2,83643.74%941.45%71811.07%6,484
Clarke 2,18949.41%2,12447.95%1172.64%651.46%4,430
Clay 3,38539.81%4,95158.23%1661.96%-1,566-18.42%8,502
Clayton 4,80652.59%4,16445.57%1681.84%6427.02%9,138
Clinton 15,14160.56%9,43237.73%4271.71%5,70922.83%25,000
Crawford 3,06645.41%3,59553.24%911.35%-529-7.83%6,752
Dallas 16,57643.49%20,98855.06%5521.45%-4,412-11.57%38,116
Davis 1,52040.29%2,13856.67%1153.04%-618-16.38%3,773
Decatur 1,79146.73%1,94750.80%952.47%-156-4.07%3,833
Delaware 4,61649.22%4,63649.43%1261.35%-20-0.21%9,378
Des Moines 11,88858.32%8,13639.91%3611.77%3,75218.41%20,385
Dickinson 4,09540.31%5,91258.19%1521.50%-1,817-17.88%10,159
Dubuque 28,76856.53%21,28041.81%8461.66%7,48814.72%50,894
Emmet 2,09944.78%2,50753.49%811.73%-408-8.71%4,687
Fayette 5,73255.30%4,49243.33%1421.37%1,24011.97%10,366
Floyd 4,68056.68%3,47242.05%1051.27%1,20814.63%8,257
Franklin 2,26643.69%2,82354.44%971.87%-557-10.75%5,186
Fremont 1,63744.63%1,97253.76%591.61%-335-9.13%3,668
Greene 2,37549.01%2,38049.11%911.88%-5-0.10%4,846
Grundy 2,63537.85%4,21560.54%1121.61%-1,580-22.69%6,962
Guthrie 2,56943.63%3,17153.86%1482.51%-602-10.23%5,888
Hamilton 3,78247.71%3,99150.35%1541.94%-209-2.64%7,927
Hancock 2,52142.55%3,31755.98%871.47%-796-13.43%5,925
Hardin 4,07545.80%4,67052.48%1531.72%-595-6.68%8,898
Harrison 3,13642.83%4,06555.52%1211.65%-929-12.69%7,322
Henry 4,46045.99%5,03551.92%2022.09%-575-5.93%9,697
Howard 2,76859.59%1,79538.64%821.77%97320.95%4,645
Humboldt 1,97238.23%3,09960.08%871.69%-1,127-21.85%5,158
Ida 1,32136.06%2,28662.41%561.53%-965-26.35%3,663
Iowa 4,14446.74%4,56951.53%1531.73%-425-4.79%8,866
Jackson 5,90757.67%4,17740.78%1581.55%1,73016.89%10,242
Jasper 10,25752.56%8,87745.49%3811.95%1,3807.07%19,515
Jefferson 4,79856.25%3,43640.28%2963.47%1,36215.97%8,530
Johnson 50,66666.69%23,69831.19%1,6132.12%26,96835.50%75,977
Jones 5,53452.96%4,72145.18%1941.86%8137.78%10,449
Keokuk 2,30343.73%2,84353.99%1202.28%-540-10.26%5,266
Kossuth 3,85043.15%4,93755.33%1361.52%-1,087-12.18%8,923
Lee 10,71456.65%7,78541.17%4122.18%2,92915.48%18,911
Linn 68,58157.90%47,62240.20%2,2501.90%20,95917.70%118,453
Louisa 2,45249.36%2,42048.71%961.93%320.65%4,968
Lucas 1,98745.96%2,25452.14%821.90%-267-6.18%4,323
Lyon 1,42321.86%4,97876.48%1081.66%-3,555-54.62%6,509
Madison 3,63042.92%4,63854.84%1902.24%-1,008-11.92%8,458
Mahaska 4,21338.71%6,44859.25%2222.04%-2,235-20.54%10,883
Marion 7,50742.44%9,82855.57%3521.99%-2,321-13.13%17,687
Marshall 10,25753.80%8,47244.44%3351.76%1,7859.36%19,064
Mills 2,84839.49%4,21658.46%1482.05%-1,368-18.97%7,212
Mitchell 2,83150.68%2,64347.31%1122.01%1883.37%5,586
Monona 2,10144.31%2,55753.92%841.77%-456-9.61%4,742
Monroe 1,73145.20%2,02652.90%731.90%-295-7.70%3,830
Montgomery 1,92238.25%3,00159.72%1022.03%-1,079-21.47%5,025
Muscatine 11,32357.00%8,16841.12%3741.88%3,15515.88%19,865
O'Brien 1,96926.82%5,26671.73%1061.45%-3,297-44.91%7,341
Osceola 91228.55%2,23069.82%521.63%-1,318-41.27%3,194
Page 2,61336.91%4,34861.42%1181.67%-1,735-24.51%7,079
Palo Alto 2,13943.77%2,66054.43%881.80%-521-10.66%4,887
Plymouth 4,16432.15%8,59766.39%1891.46%-4,433-34.24%12,950
Pocahontas 1,52337.77%2,39659.42%1132.81%-873-21.65%4,032
Polk 128,46556.13%96,09641.98%4,3211.89%32,36914.15%228,882
Pottawattamie 19,64446.44%21,86051.68%7971.88%-2,216-5.24%42,301
Poweshiek 5,35753.70%4,42444.35%1941.95%9339.35%9,975
Ringgold 1,18645.63%1,36852.64%451.73%-182-7.01%2,599
Sac 2,12240.11%3,09458.48%751.41%-972-18.37%5,291
Scott 50,65256.12%38,25142.38%1,3601.50%12,40113.74%90,263
Shelby 2,46938.08%3,91160.33%1031.59%-1,442-22.25%6,483
Sioux 2,70015.60%14,40783.24%2011.16%-11,707-67.64%17,308
Story 26,19255.55%19,66841.71%1,2902.74%6,52413.84%47,150
Tama 4,76852.88%4,09845.45%1511.67%6707.43%9,017
Taylor 1,26242.14%1,68356.19%501.67%-421-14.05%2,995
Union 3,04351.08%2,81347.22%1011.70%2303.86%5,957
Van Buren 1,40239.28%2,06457.83%1032.89%-662-18.55%3,569
Wapello 8,66354.93%6,78943.05%3182.02%1,87411.88%15,770
Warren 12,55148.14%13,05250.06%4691.80%-501-1.92%26,072
Washington 5,11546.48%5,56250.55%3272.97%-447-4.07%11,004
Wayne 1,25143.14%1,58354.59%662.27%-332-11.45%2,900
Webster 9,53752.14%8,46946.30%2861.56%1,0685.84%18,292
Winnebago 2,90349.05%2,90649.10%1091.85%-3-0.05%5,918
Winneshiek 6,25656.44%4,62241.70%2061.86%1,63414.74%11,084
Woodbury 22,30249.54%21,84148.52%8761.94%4611.02%45,019
Worth 2,35056.33%1,74441.80%781.87%60614.53%4,172
Wright 2,83645.17%3,34953.35%931.48%-513-8.18%6,278
Total822,54451.99%730,61746.18%29,0191.83%91,9275.81%1,582,180
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Iowa County Flips 2012.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Obama won 3 of the 4 congressional districts, including one held by a Republican. [35]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st 42.53%56.2% Bruce Braley
2nd 42.74%55.78% Dave Loebsack
3rd 47.16%51.45% Tom Latham
4th 53.42%45.26% Steve King

See also

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The 2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States presidential election in Ohio</span> Election in Ohio

The 2012 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Ohio voters chose 18 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. This election continued Ohio's bellwether streak, as the state voted for the winner of the presidency in every election from 1964 to 2016.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania</span> Selection of Pennsylvanias presidential electors

The 2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. The primary election to select the Democratic and Republican candidates had been held on April 24, 2012. Pennsylvania voters chose 20 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Pennsylvania's electoral vote number was a reduction from the 2008 delegation, which had 21 electors. This change was due to reapportionment following the 2010 United States Census. Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes are allotted on a winner-take-all basis.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States presidential election in Virginia</span> Election in Virginia

The 2012 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose 13 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States presidential election in Utah</span> Election in Utah

The 2012 United States presidential election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Utah voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States presidential election in Alaska</span> Election in Alaska

The 2012 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose three electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Statewide opinion polling for the March 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries</span>

This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States presidential election in Iowa</span>

The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against the Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.

References

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