2012 United States Senate election in Nevada

2012 United States Senate election in Nevada

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Turnout	57.1% (voting eligible) [1]
Nominee Dean Heller Shelley Berkley Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 457,656 446,080 Percentage 45.87% 44.71%
County results Congressional district results Heller:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80% Berkley:     40–50%     50–60%
U.S. senator before election Dean Heller [lower-alpha 1] Republican Elected U.S. Senator Dean Heller Republican

See also: 2012 United States Senate elections

The 2012 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and the 2012 presidential election. The primary election was held June 12, 2012.

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Dean Heller, who was appointed to his seat in May 2011 following the resignation of Senator John Ensign, was narrowly elected to his first full term over Representative Shelley Berkley, despite President Barack Obama carrying the state by 6.7% in the concurrent presidential election. As a result, Heller became the only Republican Senate candidate in 2012 to win in a state that was lost by the Republican presidential candidate. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in North Dakota. As of 2023 ^[update] , this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Nevada.

Background

Main article: John Ensign scandal

Ensign was reelected to the United States Senate in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former president Jimmy Carter, by a margin of 55–41%. His reelection campaign was expected to be complicated after it was revealed in 2009 that he had been involved in an extramarital affair with the wife of one of his campaign staffers, allegedly made payments to the woman's family and arranged work for her husband to cover himself. ^{[2] [3]}

The Senate Ethics Committee was to investigate Ensign, and his poll numbers declined significantly. ^{[4] [5]} There was speculation that he might resign before the election, but he initially said he would run for reelection. ^[6] On March 7, 2011, Ensign announced that he would not seek reelection, ^[7] and on April 22, he announced that he would resign effective May 3. ^[8]

Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval appointed U.S. Representative Dean Heller to fill the vacancy created by Ensign's resignation. Heller took office on May 9, 2011. ^[9]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator, former U.S. Representative, former Nevada Secretary of State and former state assemblyman ^{[10] [11]}

Eliminated in primary

• Sherry Brooks, retired secretary ^[12]
• Richard Charles ^[12]
• Eddie Hamilton, retired auto executive and perennial candidate ^[12]
• Carlo Poliak, sanitation worker and perennial candidate ^[12]
• David Lory Vanderbeek, marriage and family therapist ^[12]

Declined

• Sharron Angle, 2010 Republican Senate nominee and former state assemblywoman ^[13]
• John Ensign, former U.S. Senator ^[7]
• Brian Krolicki, lieutenant governor ^[14]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sharron Angle	John Chachas	John Ensign	Dean Heller	Brian Krolicki	Sue Lowden	Danny Tarkanian	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	400	±4.9%	9%	5%	20%	30%	6%	12%	10%	8%

Appointment preference

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sue Lowden	Brian Sandoval	Danny Tarkanian	Undecided
Mason-Dixon/LVJR	October 8, 2009	4%	24%	14%	17%	17%	21%

Primaries with Ensign

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign	Dean Heller	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	October 7–9, 2010	400	±4.9%	45%	37%	––	18%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	400	±4.9%	34%	52%	––	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign	Brian Krolicki	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	October 7–9, 2010	400	±4.9%	55%	27%	––	18%

Results

Republican primary results ^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Dean Heller (incumbent)	88,958	86.3
	Republican	Sherry Brooks	5,356	5.2
		None of These Candidates	3,358	3.3
	Republican	Eddie "In Liberty" Hamilton	2,628	2.6
	Republican	Richard Charles	2,295	2.2
	Republican	Carlo "Nakusa" Poliak	512	0.5
Total votes			103,107	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Shelley Berkley, U.S. Representative ^[16]

Eliminated in primary

• Steve Brown, businessman ^[12]
• Barry Ellsworth, renewable energy executive ^{[17] [18] [19]}
• Louis Macias, art dealer ^[12]
• Nancy Price, former Regent of the Nevada System of Higher Education and Democratic nominee for the 2nd congressional district in 2010 ^[12]

Withdrew

• Byron Georgiou, businessman ^[20]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Shelley Berkley	Byron Georgiou	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 21–24, 2011	300	±5.7%	65%	8%	––	27%
Public Policy Polling	July 28–31, 2011	400	±4.9%	71%	6%	––	23%

Results

Results by county:

  Berkley—80-90%

  Berkley—70-80%

  Berkley—60-70%

  Berkley—50-60%

  Berkley—40-50%

Democratic primary results ^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Shelley Berkley	62,081	79.5
	Democratic	Nancy Price	4,210	5.4
	Democratic	Steve Brown	3,998	5.1
		None of These Candidates	3,637	4.7
	Democratic	Barry Ellsworth	2,491	3.2
	Democratic	Louis Macias	1,714	2.2
Total votes			78,131	100

General election

Candidates

• Shelley Berkley (D), U.S. Representative
• Dean Heller (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
• David Lory VanDerBeek (Independent American Party of Nevada), therapist ^[21]

Debates

The first Berkley-Heller debate was on September 27, 2012. They met again in Las Vegas on October 11 and on Jon Ralston's "Face to Face" program on October 15.

External links

• Complete video of debate, September 27, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 11, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Dean Heller (R)	$8,447,489	$6,510,874	$1,936,618	$0
Shelley Berkley (D)	$8,779,074	$8,947,424	$924,918	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [22]

Top contributors

^[23]

Shelly Berkley	Contribution	Dean Heller	Contribution
EMILY's List	$93,049	Las Vegas Sands	$43,750
NORPAC	$59,750	MGM Resorts International	$35,500
MGM Resorts International	$53,700	Alliance Resource Partners	$34,500
DaVita Inc.	$49,300	Crow Holdings	$30,000
Diamond Resorts	$44,000	Elliott Management Corporation	$29,413
Cantor Fitzgerald	$27,000	Brady Industries	$25,000
Caesars Entertainment	$26,000	Mewbourne Oil Co	$25,000
Fresenius Medical Care	$24,500	Wynn Resorts	$22,500
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck	$23,650	Southwest Gas	$21,800
Station Casinos	$20,200	Bank of America	$20,500

Top industries

Shelley Berkley	Contribution	Dean Heller	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$607,407	Leadership PACs	$379,718
Pro-Israel	$384,580	Retired	$300,560
Health Professionals	$369,954	Financial Institutions	$217,084
Women's Issues	$309,817	Real Estate	$206,362
Leadership PACs	$292,500	Casinos/Gambling	$205,832
Retired	$281,490	Oil & Gas	$187,500
Real Estate	$261,779	Insurance	$182,155
Financial Institutions	$228,393	Lobbyists	$159,812
Casinos/Gambling	$227,350	Mining	$149,745
Lobbyists	$175,147	Health Professionals	$132,450

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [24]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Inside Elections [25]	Tilt R	November 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [26]	Lean R	November 5, 2012
Real Clear Politics [27]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Shelly Berkley vs. Dean Heller

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller (R)	Shelley Berkley (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	51%	38%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling	April 21–24, 2011	491	±4.4%	47%	43%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	July 28–31, 2011	601	±4.0%	46%	43%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling	October 20–23, 2011	500	±4.4%	45%	45%	—	10%
Cannon Survey Center	December 12–20, 2011	600	±4.0%	43%	44%	—	6.9%
Rasmussen Reports	March 19, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	40%	2%	11%
Public Policy Polling	March 29 – April 1, 2012	553	±4.2%	46%	43%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports	April 30, 2012	500	±4.5%	51%	40%	2%	8%
NBC News/Marist	May 22–24, 2012	1,040	±3.0%	46%	44%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling	June 7–10, 2012	500	±4.4%	44%	43%	—	13%
Magellan Strategies	July 16–17, 2012	665	±3.8%	45%	42%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports	July 24, 2012	500	±4.5%	51%	42%	2%	5%
LVRJ/Survey USA	August 16–21, 2012	869	±3.4%	44%	39%	9%	8%
Public Policy Polling	August 23–26, 2012	831	±3.4%	47%	45%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	September 18, 2012	500	±4.5%	42%	41%	4%	12%
Public Policy Polling	September 18–20, 2012	501	±4.4%	44%	48%	—	8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	September 23–25, 2012	984	±3.1%	49%	43%	1%	6%
We Ask America	September 25–27, 2012	1,152	±3.1%	45%	45%	—	10%
Gravis Marketing	October 3, 2012	1,006	±3.1%	53%	36%	—	12%
Precision Opinion	October 6, 2012	1,521	±2.5%	45%	43%	—	12%
LVRJ/Survey USA	October 3–8, 2012	1,222	±2.9%	47%	39%	8%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	October 8, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	45%	3%	4%
Suffolk Archived October 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine	October 6–9, 2012	500	±4.4%	40%	37%	7%	14%
Public Policy Polling	October 8–10, 2012	594	±4.0%	47%	44%	4%	5%
LVRJ/Survey USA	October 11–15, 2012	806	±3.5%	46%	40%	8%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	October 15, 2012	500	±4.5%	50%	43%	4%	3%
Rasmussen Reports	October 23, 2012	500	±4.5%	50%	45%	1%	4%
Public Policy Polling	October 22–24, 2012	636	±3.9%	44%	44%	7%	5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist	October 23–24, 2012	1,042	±2.8%	48%	45%	2%	6%
LVRJ/SurveyUSA	October 23–29, 2012	1,212	±2.9%	46%	40%	10%	4%
Public Policy Polling	November 3–4, 2012	750	±3.6%	48%	46%	4%	1%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller (R)	Byron Georgiou (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 21–24, 2011	491	±4.4%	52%	28%	––	20%
Magellan Strategies (R) Archived July 12, 2011, at the Wayback Machine	June 21–22, 2011	720	±3.65%	46%	33%	––	21%
Public Policy Polling	July 28–31, 2011	601	±4.0%	48%	31%	––	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller (R)	Oscar Goodman (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	45%	38%	––	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller (R)	Catherine Cortez Masto (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	46%	37%	––	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Dean Heller (R)	Ross Miller (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	46%	34%	––	21%

with John Ensign

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign (R)	Shelley Berkley (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]	January 11–12, 2010	763	±3.6%	49%	40%	––	11%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	42%	45%	––	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign (R)	Catherine Cortez Masto (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 16–18, 2010	630	±3.9%	48%	38%	––	14%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	42%	44%	––	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign (R)	Oscar Goodman (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]	January 11–12, 2010	763	±3.6%	43%	41%	––	16%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	35%	45%	––	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign (R)	Ross Miller (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [ permanent dead link ]	January 11–12, 2010	763	±3.6%	47%	36%	––	18%
Public Policy Polling	January 3–5, 2011	932	±3.2%	39%	40%	––	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Ensign (R)	Dina Titus (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 16–18, 2010	630	±3.9%	51%	41%	––	8%

Results

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2012 ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Dean Heller (incumbent)	457,656	45.87%	-9.49%
	Democratic	Shelley Berkley	446,080	44.71%	+3.72%
	Independent American	David Lory VanDerBeek	48,792	4.89%	+3.56%
	None of These Candidates		45,277	4.54%	+3.13%
Total votes			997,805	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Clark (largest municipality: Las Vegas)

By congressional districts

Heller won 2 of 4 congressional districts. ^[29]

District	Berkley	Heller	Representative
1st	58.57%	31.6%	Dina Titus
2nd	34.27%	55.83%	Mark Amodei
3rd	43.34%	47.93%	Joe Heck
4th	48.26%	42.38%	Steven Horsford

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada

Notes

1. In May 2011, Heller was appointed by Governor Brian Sandoval to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator John Ensign.

References

1. Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
2. Lichtblau, Eric; Lipton, Eric (October 2, 2009). "Senator's Aid to Mistress's Husband Raises Ethics Flags". The New York Times.
3. Cillizza, Chris (July 9, 2009). "Ensign Acknowledges Mistress Payment". Washington Post.
4. Raju, Manu; Bresnahan, John (February 1, 2011). "John Ensign running, despite ethics investigation". The Politico . Retrieved February 8, 2011.
5. BALL, MOLLY (July 19, 2009). "New poll reveals Ensign's status sinking, But most Nevadans still say Republican senator should not resign". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Stephens Media, LLC. Retrieved July 20, 2009.
6. Mascaro, Lisa (July 14, 2009). "Ensign to stay in Senate, seek reelection". Las Vegas Sun . Retrieved July 14, 2009.
7. Yurkanin, Justin (March 7, 2011). "Senator John Ensign announces he will not seek reelection". Las Vegas Review-Journal . Retrieved March 7, 2011.
8. "Sen. Ensign says he will resign May 3". CNN. April 22, 2011. Retrieved April 23, 2011.
9. "Heller takes Senate oath". Politico . May 9, 2011.
10. Meyers, Laura (November 7, 2010). "2012 ELECTION: Senate race field already looking full". Las Vegas Review-Journal . Retrieved November 30, 2010.
11. Ralston, Jon (November 10, 2010). "GOP may be setting its sights on Ensign". Las Vegas Sun . Retrieved December 15, 2010.
12. Myers, Laura (June 3, 2012). "2012 PRIMARY ELECTION: U.S. SENATE". Las Vegas Review-Journal . Retrieved June 12, 2012.
13. "Angle in race for Heller's House seat", ReviewJournal.com
14. Krolicki endorses Heller, mulls House bid by David Catanese at POLITICO.com
15. "Official Results of the 2012 Primary Election". Secretary of State of Nevada . Retrieved September 15, 2012.
16. Trygstad, Kyle (April 14, 2011). "Shelley Berkley Will Run for Senate in Nevada". Roll Call . Retrieved June 12, 2012.
17. Ralston, Jon (January 11, 2012). "Renewable energy company founder will run as Democrat for U.S. Senate in Nevada". Las Vegas Sun . Retrieved January 12, 2012.
18. Tetreault, Steve. "Entrepreneur files to oppose Berkley in Senate race". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
19. Coleman, Kyle. "Green Energy Pioneer Barry Ellsworth Announces Nevada US Senate Run Against Corrupt Career Politician Shelley Berkley". yahoo.news. Retrieved January 31, 2012.
20. Damon, Anjeanette (August 10, 2011). "Georgiou abandons U.S. Senate bid, clears way for Berkley on Democratic ticket". Las Vegas Sun . Retrieved June 12, 2012.
21. "Meet the Candidates: David Lory Van Der Beek". Las Vegas Review-Journal . Retrieved June 12, 2012.
22. "Browse data". FEC.gov.
23. Nevada Senate 2012 Race, OpenSecrets
24. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
25. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
26. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
27. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
28. "Nevada General Election 2012 - U.S. Senate". Secretary of State of Nevada.
29. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

External links

• Election Center at the Nevada secretary of state
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign sites

• Shelley Berkley for Senate
• Dean Heller for Senate
• David Lory Vanderbeek for Senate