2022 United States Senate election in Utah

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2022 United States Senate election in Utah
Flag of Utah (2011-2024).svg
  2016 November 8, 2022 2028  
  Mike Lee, official portrait (cropped).jpg Evan McMullin October 2019.png
Nominee Mike Lee Evan McMullin
Party Republican Independent
Alliance Democratic
Popular vote571,974459,958
Percentage53.15%42.74%

2022 United States Senate election in Utah results map by county.svg
2022 United States Senate election in Utah by Congressional District.svg
UT Senate 2022.svg
Lee:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McMullin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >80%
Hansen:     >90%
Williams:     >90%
Tie:     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Mike Lee
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Mike Lee
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.

Contents

This was the first Senate election in Utah's history in which there was no Democratic nominee. Lee's performance was the worst for a Republican in a Utah U.S. Senate election since 1974, while McMullin's was the best ever for an independent in a Utah U.S. Senate race and the best for a non-Republican since 1976.

Republican primary

Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022. Though considered by the party to be its nominee, a primary was still held on June 28, 2022, after two other candidates garnered enough signatures to qualify. [1]

Candidates

Nominee

Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary. Becky Edwards (Politician) (cropped).JPG
Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary.
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary. Ally Isom (41162310741) (cropped).jpg
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary.

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

Did not file

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Evan
Barlow
Loy
Brunson
Becky
Edwards
Jeremy
Friedbaum
Laird
Hamblin
Ally
Isom
Tyrone
Jensen
Mike
Lee
Brendan
Wright
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 7–13, 2022503 (LV)± 4.3%19%6%49%26%
Dan Jones & Associates March 9–21, 2022484 (LV)± 4.5%6%1%19%2%1%4%67%
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022366 (RV)± 5.1%5%2%2%51%2%37%
Dan Jones & Associates October 14–21, 2021469 (LV)± 4.5%7%2%53%6%32%
OH Predictive Insights August 2–8, 2021337 (RV)± 5.3%3%2%45%3%48%
RMG Research June 24–25, 2021587 (LV)± 4.0%11%47%8%33%

Results

Convention

State Republican Convention results, 2022
CandidateFirst ballotPct.
Mike Lee 2,62170.74%
Becky Edwards 43611.77%
Ally Isom3589.66%
Jeremy Friedbaum1323.56%
Evan Barlow752.02%
Loy Brunson711.92%
Laird Hamblin120.32%
Total3,705100.00%

Primary

Results by county:
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Lee
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Utah results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Lee
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [24] [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 258,089 61.94%
Republican Becky Edwards 123,61729.67%
Republican Ally Isom34,9978.40%
Total votes416,703 100.0%

Democratic convention

The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022. [26] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate, [27] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.

Candidates

Eliminated at convention

Former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston Kael Weston 2005 (cropped).jpg
Former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston

Did not file

  • Austin Searle, musician [29]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kael Weston
Statewide official

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Allen
Glines
Nicholas
Mitchell
Steve
Schmidt
Austin
Searle
Kael
Weston
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022110 (RV)± 9.3%2%5%16%2%14%60%

Convention vote

The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices. [36] [37] [38] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin’s independent coalition to beat Mike Lee", [37] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election. [37] [38] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed. [38] The delegates passed the motion by a 57%–43% margin. [37] [38]

Democratic convention results [38]
ChoiceVotes %
Check-71-128-204-brightblue.svg Endorse Evan McMullin 78256.83
Nominate Kael Weston 59443.17
Total votes1,376100.00

Libertarian convention


Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

  • Lucky Bovo [7]

Independent American convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Tommy Williams, perennial candidate [41]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [44] Likely RAugust 18, 2022
Inside Elections [45] Likely RSeptember 9, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [46] Likely RJune 15, 2022
Politico [47] Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP [48] Likely RNovember 5, 2022
Fox News [49] Likely RSeptember 20, 2022
DDHQ [50] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [51] Solid RSeptember 22, 2022
The Economist [52] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Mike Lee (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Organizations
Evan McMullin (I)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight June 15 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202248.5%38.7%12.8%Lee +9.8
270towin October 31 – November 1, 2022November 8, 202248.0%36.7%15.3%Lee +11.3
Average48.2%37.7%14.1%Lee +10.5
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Hill Research Consultants (I) [upper-alpha 1] October 29–30, 2022500 (LV)47%46%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022825 (LV)± 3.3%49%39%9% [lower-alpha 3] 4%
50%40%11% [lower-alpha 4]
OH Predictive Insights October 25–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%53%34%4% [lower-alpha 5] 9%
Hill Research Consultants (I) [upper-alpha 1] October 8–11, 2022500 (LV)43% [lower-alpha 6] 49%4% [lower-alpha 7] 4%
42%46%4% [lower-alpha 8] 8%
Kurt Jetta (I) [upper-alpha 2] October 4–11, 2022406 (RV)± 3.5%38%37%26%
239 (LV)50%38%12%
OH Predictive Insights October 5–6, 2022483 (LV)± 4.5%47%32%5% [lower-alpha 9] 16%
Dan Jones & Associates October 3–6, 2022801 (RV)± 3.5%41%37%8% [lower-alpha 10] 12%
773 (LV)42%37%8% [lower-alpha 10] 12%
Dan Jones & Associates September 3–21, 2022815 (RV)± 3.4%36%34%13% [lower-alpha 11] 16%
786 (LV)37%34%13% [lower-alpha 11] 16%
Lighthouse Research August 30 – September 13, 2022509 (LV)± 4.4%48%37%10% [lower-alpha 12] 5%
Kurt Jetta (I) [upper-alpha 2] September 1–8, 2022474 (RV)± 3.5%40%37%23%
239 (LV)43%39%18%
Impact Research (I) [upper-alpha 3] August 29 – September 1, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%46%47%7%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 4] August 4–5, 2022500 (LV)50%32%6%12%
Dan Jones & Associates July 13–18, 2022801 (RV)± 3.5%41%36%14%8%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 4] July 12–14, 2022529 (LV)± 4.3%49%35%10%5%
Kurt Jetta (I) [upper-alpha 2] July 12, 2022561 (A)± 4.1%43%32%26%
434 (RV)± 4.7%44%34%22%
213 (LV)± 6.7%50%36%15%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 4] June 14–16, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%52%33%15%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%41%35%4%20%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%41%37%4%19%
Kurt Jetta (I) [upper-alpha 2] March 5, 2022683 (A)± 3.7%31%26%44%
– (RV)33%27%40%
– (LV)38%30%32%
Hypothetical polling
Becky Edwards vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Becky
Edwards (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%31%29%7%34%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%29%28%6%37%
Ally Isom vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ally
Isom (R)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022803 (RV)± 3.5%24%34%7%36%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022810 (RV)± 3.5%23%34%7%36%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R) March 20–24, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%49%13%25%1%12%
Dan Jones & Associates March 9–21, 2022804 (RV)± 3.5%43%11%19%3%24%
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%34%12%24%30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt vs. Evan McMullin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Evan
McMullin (I)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%36%11%23%30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Steve
Schmidt (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%45%25%30%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mike
Lee (R)
Kael
Weston (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022739 (RV)± 3.6%45%25%30%

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Utah debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Independent
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mike Lee Evan McMullin
1Oct. 18, 2022Utah Debate CommissionDoug Wright YouTube PP

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Utah [89]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 571,974 53.15% –15.00
Independent Evan McMullin 459,95842.74%N/A
Libertarian James Hansen31,7842.95%N/A
Independent American Tommy Williams12,1031.12%–1.33
Write-in 2420.02%N/A
Total votes1,076,061 100.0%
Republican hold

By county

By county
County Mike Lee
Republican
Evan McMullin
Independent
James Hansen
Libertarian
Tommy Williams
Ind. American
Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Beaver 1,97180.5541917.12331.35240.9800.001,55263.422,447
Box Elder 14,43472.524,72523.744632.332761.3950.029,70948.7819,903
Cache 24,58858.5615,58037.101,2282.925861.4080.029,00821.4541,990
Carbon 4,26563.382,11431.422303.421191.7710.012,15131.976,729
Daggett 37775.7010921.8940.8081.6100.0026853.81498
Davis 66,38553.6352,80642.662,8972.341,6541.34360.0313,57910.97123,778
Duchesne 5,17082.2891214.52961.531031.6420.034,25867.776,283
Emery 3,26979.6071217.34701.70561.3600.002,55762.264,107
Garfield 1,79575.2652021.80331.38371.5500.001,27553.462,385
Grand 1,90140.942,42152.142505.38711.5300.00-520-11.204,643
Iron 12,92374.663,75521.694372.521941.1200.009,16852.9717,309
Juab 3,88682.1471415.09701.48611.2900.003,17267.054,731
Kane 2,55369.7794625.851042.84561.5300.001,60743.923,659
Millard 4,27983.4170113.66881.72621.2100.003,57869.755,130
Morgan 3,66571.071,35826.33791.53551.0700.002,30744.745,157
Piute 69288.388210.4760.7730.3800.0061077.91783
Rich 84478.6620619.20141.3090.8400.0063859.461,073
Salt Lake 144,93138.02218,49557.3213,9023.653,7800.99870.02-73,564-19.30381,195
San Juan 3,11856.061,81532.633386.082895.2020.041,30323.435,562
Sanpete 7,82978.261,91219.111501.501131.1300.005,91759.1510,004
Sevier 6,41182.461,15214.821201.54921.1800.005,25967.647,775
Summit 7,30535.8812,32560.545532.721710.8440.02-5,020-24.6620,358
Tooele 13,37160.577,48733.928093.664021.8250.025,88426.6522,074
Uintah 8,90582.191,55914.392031.871661.5310.017,34667.8010,834
Utah 127,09661.6772,23835.054,9492.401,7620.85550.0354,85826.62206,100
Wasatch 7,52855.915,42940.323502.601571.1700.002,09915.5913,464
Washington 49,42071.1117,78625.591,5262.207691.1100.0031,63445.5269,501
Wayne 1,05669.7541527.41261.72171.1200.0064142.341,514
Weber 42,00754.5031,26540.562,7563.581,0111.31360.0510,74213.9477,075
Totals571,97453.15459,95842.7431,7842.9512,1031.122420.02112,01610.411,076,061
Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

By congressional district

Lee won all 4 congressional districts. [90]

DistrictLeeMcMullinRepresentative
1st 52%44% Blake Moore
2nd 53%42% Chris Stewart
3rd 52%44% John Curtis
4th 56%40% Burgess Owens

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Hansen (L) with 4%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. Hansen (L) with 5%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 3%
  5. Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 1%
  6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. Hansen (L) with 4%
  8. Hansen (L) with 4%
  9. Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 2%
  10. 1 2 Williams (IA) with 2%; Hansen (L) with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  11. 1 2 Williams (IA) with 3%; Hansen (L) with 2%; "Other" with 8%
  12. Hansen (L) and Williams (IA) with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Put Utah First PAC, which supports McMullin
  2. 1 2 3 4 This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which supports McMullin
  3. This poll was sponsored by McMullin's campaign
  4. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Lee's campaign

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References

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  90. @AGavulic17 (March 24, 2023). "Last November, incumbent R Mike Lee defeated Dem-endorsed Independent Evan McMullin by just over 10 points in the Utah Senate race. In a show of how effective the GOP crack of SLC is, Lee won all 4 CDs by roughly equal margins, despite McMullin winning SL County by 19 points" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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