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Smith: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Lewis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.
Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11. [1]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 497,498 | 87.14% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Paula Overby | 30,497 | 5.34% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Ahmad Hassan | 20,037 | 3.51% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Steve Carlson | 16,429 | 2.88% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Christopher Seymore | 6,480 | 1.13% | |
Total votes | 570,941 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jason Lewis | 191,290 | 78.11% | |
Republican | Cynthia Gail | 17,675 | 7.22% | |
Republican | John Berman | 16,213 | 6.62% | |
Republican | Bob Carney Jr. | 10,503 | 4.29% | |
Republican | James Reibestein | 9,210 | 3.76% | |
Total votes | 244,891 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Grassroots—LC | Oliver Steinberg | 3,275 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 3,275 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Legal Marijuana Now | Kevin O'Connor | 6,996 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 6,996 | 100.00% |
Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis. [50] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and attended only by Lewis. [51]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [52] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [53] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [55] | Likely D | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [56] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [57] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [58] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
538 [59] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [60] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tina Smith (D) | Jason Lewis (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | October 31 – November 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | 4.6% | 50% | 39% | 2% [lower-alpha 1] | 9% |
Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,259 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 54% | 44% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] | – |
Swayable | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 430 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 55% | 46% | – | – |
Public Policy Polling | October 29–30, 2020 | 770 (V) | – | 51% | 42% | – | 6% |
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart | October 25–30, 2020 | 1,138 (LV) | – | 53% | 44% | 3% [lower-alpha 3] | – |
St. Cloud State University | October 10–29, 2020 | 372 (A) | ± 6.7% | 53% | 36% | – | – |
SurveyUSA Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 23–27, 2020 | 649 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 42% | 3% [lower-alpha 4] | 10% |
Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 17–20, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 43% | 2% [lower-alpha 5] | 1% |
SurveyUSA Archived October 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 16–20, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 5% | 43% | 42% | 3% [lower-alpha 4] | 12% |
Change Research | October 12–15, 2020 [lower-alpha 6] | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 44% | 4% [lower-alpha 7] | 5% |
SurveyUSA Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 1–6, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 44% | 37% | 4% [lower-alpha 8] | 16% |
Suffolk University | September 20–24, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 35% | 6% [lower-alpha 9] | 14% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | September 21–23, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–17, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 36% | 2% [lower-alpha 10] | 11% |
CBS News/YouGov | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 40% | 2% [lower-alpha 1] | 10% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 8–10, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 40% | 0% [lower-alpha 11] | 11% [lower-alpha 12] |
SurveyUSA | September 4–7, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 47% | 36% | 3% [lower-alpha 4] | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | September 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 41% | 3% [lower-alpha 13] | 7% |
Harper Polling (R) [upper-alpha 1] | August 30 – September 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 41% | – | 10% |
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 2] | July 22–23, 2020 | 1,218 (V) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
Harper Polling (R) [upper-alpha 1] | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 46% | 35% | – | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PPP | Sep 3–4, 2020 | 877 (V) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 44% | – | 4% |
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis [upper-alpha 1] | Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 45% | 43% | 3% [lower-alpha 13] | 9% |
Emerson College | Aug 8–10, 2020 | 733 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 46% | – | 7% |
Harper Polling (R) [upper-alpha 1] | May 26–28, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 44% | 40% | – | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Tina Smith (incumbent) | 1,566,522 | 48.74% | -4.23% | |
Republican | Jason Lewis | 1,398,145 | 43.50% | +1.15% | |
Legal Marijuana Now | Kevin O'Connor | 190,154 | 5.91% | +2.21% | |
Grassroots—LC | Oliver Steinberg | 57,174 | 1.78% | N/A | |
Write-in | 2,261 | 0.07% | +0.03% | ||
Total votes | 3,214,256 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
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Smith and Lewis each won 4 congressional districts.
District | Smith | Lewis | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 41.9% | 48.8% | Jim Hagedorn |
2nd | 47.9% | 44.5% | Angie Craig |
3rd | 53.1% | 40.1% | Dean Phillips |
4th | 61.7% | 30.1% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 73.4% | 18.3% | Ilhan Omar |
6th | 36% | 55.7% | Tom Emmer |
7th | 34% | 58.9% | Collin Peterson |
Michelle Fischbach | |||
8th | 40% | 52.3% | Pete Stauber |
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