| |||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 75.35% 6.37pp | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
Cooper: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Forest: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in North Carolina |
---|
The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was eligible to run for re-election to a second term in office, and announced his intention to do so on December 5, 2019. [1]
Under a 2018 state law, party primary elections were held on March 3, 2020. [2]
Cooper was re-elected to a second term by a closer margin than polls forecasted, defeating the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest. Cooper's re-election win made him the first Governor of North Carolina to win re-election since fellow Democrat Mike Easley in 2004. Once again, Cooper outperformed other Democrats on the ballot. With a margin of 4.51%, this election was the second closest of the 2020 gubernatorial election cycle, the closest being the election in Puerto Rico.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Roy Cooper | Ernest Reeves | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University Archived 2020-03-02 at the Wayback Machine | February 21–28, 2020 | 269 (LV) | – | 74% | 13% | 13% |
468 (RV) | – | 68% | 14% | 18% | ||
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 73% | 9% | 18% |
High Point University Archived 2020-02-12 at the Wayback Machine | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | 80% | 8% | 12% |
400 (RV) | – | 69% | 10% | 21% | ||
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Roy Cooper (incumbent) | 1,128,829 | 87.19% | |
Democratic | Ernest T. Reeves | 165,804 | 12.81% | |
Total votes | 1,294,633 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Dan Forest | Holly Grange | Pat McCrory | Undecided | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University Archived 2020-03-02 at the Wayback Machine | February 21–28, 2020 | 246 (LV) | – | 74% | 13% | – | 13% | |||||||
443 (RV) | – | 64% | 12% | – | 24% | |||||||||
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 60% | 8% | – | 32% | |||||||
High Point University Archived 2020-02-12 at the Wayback Machine | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | 67% | 8% | – | 25% | |||||||
400 (RV) | – | 54% | 10% | – | 36% | |||||||||
McCrory announces he will not run | ||||||||||||||
Harper Polling (R) | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 31% | 3% | 42% | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dan Forest | 698,077 | 88.95% | |
Republican | Holly Grange | 86,714 | 11.05% | |
Total votes | 784,791 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [13] | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
Inside Elections [14] | Lean D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
Politico [16] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [17] | Likely D | October 28, 2020 |
RCP [18] | Lean D | November 2, 2020 |
270towin [19] | Likely D | November 2, 2020 |
A debate between Cooper and Forest occurred 7:00 pm EDT, October 14, 2020. [25]
Dates | Location | Cooper | Forest | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 14, 2020 | Raleigh, North Carolina | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Dan Forest (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable Archived 2020-11-27 at the Wayback Machine | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 55% | 43% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] |
Frederick Polls (D) [upper-alpha 1] | October 30–31, 2020 | 676 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 45% | 3% [lower-alpha 3] |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2020 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% [lower-alpha 4] | 45% | 1% [lower-alpha 5] |
CNN/SSRS Archived 2020-10-31 at the Wayback Machine | October 23–30, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 4% | 52% | 42% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] |
East Carolina University | October 27–28, 2020 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 54% [lower-alpha 7] | 43% | 2% [lower-alpha 8] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | October 27–28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 8% [lower-alpha 9] |
Marist College/NBC | October 25–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 59% | 40% | 1% [lower-alpha 10] |
Gravis Marketing | October 26–27, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | 6% [lower-alpha 11] |
Meeting Street Insights (R) Archived 2020-10-31 at the Wayback Machine | October 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | – |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 42% | 7% [lower-alpha 12] |
RMG Research Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 24–26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | 6% [lower-alpha 13] |
Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 386 (LV) | ± 6.9% | 53% | 44% | 3% [lower-alpha 14] |
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV | October 23–26, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 42% | 6% [lower-alpha 15] |
YouGov/UMass Amherst | October 20–26, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 54% | 42% | 3% [lower-alpha 16] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 22–25, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 42% | 5% [lower-alpha 17] |
Meredith College | October 16–19, 2020 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 34% | 16% [lower-alpha 18] |
East Carolina University | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 44% | 2% [lower-alpha 19] |
Emerson College | October 13–14, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 46% | 4% [lower-alpha 20] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 46% | 1% [lower-alpha 21] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 9–13, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 37% | 12% [lower-alpha 22] |
Monmouth University | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 44% | 5% [lower-alpha 23] |
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 24] | 52% | 44% | 3% [lower-alpha 25] | |||
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 26] | 51% | 46% | 3% [lower-alpha 27] | |||
SurveyUSA | October 8–11, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 39% | 10% [lower-alpha 28] |
RMG Research Archived 2020-10-14 at the Wayback Machine | October 7–11, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 51% | 37% | 12% [lower-alpha 29] |
Public Policy Polling | October 4–5, 2020 | 911 (V) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 40% | 8% [lower-alpha 30] |
East Carolina University | October 2–4, 2020 | 1,232 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 7% [lower-alpha 31] |
ALG Research (D) [upper-alpha 2] | September 22–28, 2020 | 822 (V) | – | 53% | 43% | – |
YouGov/UMass Lowell | September 18–25, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 54% | 41% | 4% [lower-alpha 32] |
Meredith College | September 18–22, 2020 | 705 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 39% | 11% [lower-alpha 33] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 46% | 39% | 14% [lower-alpha 34] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 42% | 10% [lower-alpha 35] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 55% | 36% | 9% [lower-alpha 36] |
Suffolk University | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 12% [lower-alpha 37] |
SurveyUSA | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 49% | 42% | 10% [lower-alpha 38] |
CNN/SSRS | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53% | 44% | 2% [lower-alpha 39] |
893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 42% | 5% [lower-alpha 40] | ||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 48% | 38% | 14% [lower-alpha 41] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 54% | 35% | 11% [lower-alpha 42] |
Monmouth University | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 40% | 8% [lower-alpha 43] |
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 44] | 51% | 42% | 7% [lower-alpha 45] | |||
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 46] | 51% | 42% | 7% [lower-alpha 45] | |||
East Carolina University | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 40% | 10% [lower-alpha 47] |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 16–19, 2020 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 38% | 11% [lower-alpha 48] |
East Carolina University | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 38% | 11% [lower-alpha 49] |
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 44% | 7% [lower-alpha 50] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 13% [lower-alpha 51] |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | July 23–24, 2020 | 884 (V) | ± 3.4% | 53% | 42% | 5% [lower-alpha 52] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) Archived 2020-07-30 at the Wayback Machine | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 46% | 8% [lower-alpha 53] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 37% | 12% [lower-alpha 54] |
Marist College/NBC News | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 38% | 4% [lower-alpha 55] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% [lower-alpha 56] |
East Carolina University | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 38% | 13% [lower-alpha 57] |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 41% | 10% [lower-alpha 58] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 39% | 11% [lower-alpha 59] |
Gravis Marketing (R) | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 31% | 17% [lower-alpha 60] |
Public Policy Polling | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 39% | 11% [lower-alpha 61] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | 14% [lower-alpha 62] |
Neighbourhood Research & Media | May 12–21, 2020 | 391 (LV) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
Meeting Street Insights (R) Archived 2020-06-05 at the Wayback Machine | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | – | 55% | 37% | 8% |
East Carolina University | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
Meredith College | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 32% | 16% |
SurveyUSA | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 57% | 30% | 13% [lower-alpha 63] |
Public Policy Polling | April 20–21, 2020 | 1,275 (V) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 40% | 7% |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) Archived April 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | April 13–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 36% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (V) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 36% | 13% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived 2020-04-23 at the Wayback Machine | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 33% | 17% |
East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived October 24, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Meredith College | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 33% | 21% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Harper Polling (R) Archived June 19, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | June 8–10, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
Emerson College Archived 2019-06-04 at the Wayback Machine | May 31 – June 3, 2019 | 932 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 38% | 10% |
Spry Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 4] | May 25 – June 1, 2019 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Holly Grange (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 33% | 18% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived October 24, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 30% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Phil Berger (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 34% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Pat McCrory (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived October 24, 2019, at the Wayback Machine | October 15–17, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 18% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 1–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 38% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Tim Moore (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 38% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 32% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Cooper (D) | Thom Tillis (R) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 4–7, 2019 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Roy Cooper (incumbent) | 2,834,790 | 51.52% | +2.50% | |
Republican | Dan Forest | 2,586,605 | 47.01% | −1.79% | |
Libertarian | Steven J. DiFiore | 60,449 | 1.10% | −1.09% | |
Constitution | Al Pisano | 20,934 | 0.38% | N/A | |
Total votes | 5,502,778 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Turnout | 5,545,847 | 75.35% | |||
Registered electors | 7,359,798 | ||||
Democratic hold | |||||
Despite winning a majority of the popular vote, Gov. Roy Cooper only won 5 of 13 congressional districts. [28]
District | Forest | Cooper | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 42.6% | 56.4% | G. K. Butterfield |
2nd | 31.4% | 67.0% | Deborah K. Ross |
3rd | 58.5% | 40.0% | Greg Murphy |
4th | 29.9% | 68.8% | David Price |
5th | 63.5% | 35.2% | Virginia Foxx |
6th | 34.2% | 64.2% | Kathy Manning |
7th | 54.5% | 44.0% | David Rouzer |
8th | 49.2% | 49.0% | Richard Hudson |
9th | 50.3% | 48.4% | Dan Bishop |
10th | 63.7% | 35.0% | Patrick McHenry |
11th | 52.2% | 46.3% | Madison Cawthorn |
12th | 27.0% | 71.0% | Alma Adams |
13th | 62.9% | 35.9% | Ted Budd |
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