2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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  Sen. Thom Tillis official photo (cropped).jpg James "Cal" Cunningham (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Thom Tillis Cal Cunningham
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote2,665,5982,569,965
Percentage48.69%46.94%
2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina results by congressional district.svg
NC Senate 2020.svg
Tillis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Cunningham:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Thom Tillis
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries. [1]

Contents

Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign. [2]

In early October of 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior. [3] [4] The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. [5] [6]

Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis was re-elected to a second term. Tillis outperformed pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, successfully breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over thirty years; as many of Tillis's predecessors only served one term. [7] [8] [9] On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race. [10] Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014. [11] [12]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Thom Tillis
U.S. presidents
U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Sandy
Smith		Thom
Tillis		Garland
Tucker		Mark
Walker		Paul
Wright		OtherUndecided
High Point University Archived March 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine February 21–28, 2020247 (LV)––69%––8%8% [lower-alpha 2] 16%
444 (RV)––58%––7%10% [lower-alpha 3] 26%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020353 (LV)± 3.0%–53%––5%6% [lower-alpha 4] 36%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020501 (LV)± 5.0%–59%––3%8% [lower-alpha 5] 29%
High Point University Archived February 12, 2020, at the Wayback Machine January 31 – February 6, 2020198 (LV)––62%––7%5% [lower-alpha 6] 27%
400 (RV)––52%––6%5% [lower-alpha 7] 38%
December 20, 2019Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy
December 16, 2019Walker announces he will not run [23]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) December 2–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.38%11% [lower-alpha 8] 63%––––25%
December 2, 2019Tucker withdraws from the race
FOX News November 10–13, 2019574 (LV)± 4.0%4%54%11%––5% [lower-alpha 9] 26%
Public Policy Polling August 19–20, 2019564 (V)–– [lower-alpha 10] 38%31%–––31%
Diversified Research (R) [24] [upper-alpha 1] July 8–9, 2019500 (V)––40%30%–––30%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 2] May 19–21, 2019502 (LV)± 4.5%2% [lower-alpha 11] 40%11%17%––30%
2% [lower-alpha 12] 18%8%56%––16%
May 6, 2019Tucker announces his candidacy [25]
Diversified Research (R) [24] [upper-alpha 1] Months before May, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] ––63%7%–––30%
Hypothetical polling
with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Mark
Walker		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 2] May 19–21, 2019502 (LV)± 4.5%43% [lower-alpha 11] 34%23%
28% [lower-alpha 14] 64%8%
21% [lower-alpha 15] 69%10%
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Generic
Republican		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 2] May 19–21, 2019502 (LV)± 4.5%17% [lower-alpha 11] 18%52% [lower-alpha 16]
7% [lower-alpha 12] 32%57% [lower-alpha 16]

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Tillis 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% North Carolina Senate Republican Primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Tillis
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 608,943 78.08%
Republican Paul Wright58,9087.55%
Republican Larry Holmquist57,3567.35%
Republican Sharon Y. Hudson54,6517.01%
Total votes779,858 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cal Cunningham
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Erica D. Smith
Federal officials
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Cal
Cunningham		Trevor
Fuller		Atul
Goel		Erica
Smith		Steve
Swenson		Undecided
High Point University Archived March 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine February 21–28, 2020274 (LV)–50%4%1%24%3%18%
474 (RV)–42%5%1%24%4%4%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 26–27, 2020587 (LV)± 4.1%45%2%1%23%1%28%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 2020568 (LV)± 5.1%51%3%1%18%2%25%
Public Policy Polling February 23–24, 2020852 (LV)± 3.4%45%4%1%18%2%30%
Meredith College February 16–24, 2020429 (LV)± 3.0%43%2%1%14%2%36%
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies February 21–23, 2020553 (LV)± 3.8%48%1%0%21%1%29%
SurveyUSA February 13–16, 2020698 (LV)± 4.9%42%3%1%17%3%34%
High Point University Archived February 12, 2020, at the Wayback Machine January 31 – February 6, 2020224 (LV)–37%4%0%11%4%44%
397 (RV)–29%5%1%10%5%50%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 2020604 (LV)–29%3%2%10%4%52%
Public Policy Polling January 10–12, 2020509 (LV)–22%2%3%12%1%60%
FOX News November 10–13, 2019669 (RV)± 4.0%13%10%–18%–49%

Results

Results by county: Cunningham 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Smith 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% North Carolina Senate Democratic Primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  Cunningham
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Smith
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Cal Cunningham 717,941 56.93%
Democratic Erica D. Smith 438,96934.81%
Democratic Trevor M. Fuller48,1683.82%
Democratic Steve Swenson33,7412.68%
Democratic Atul Goel22,2261.76%
Total votes1,261,045 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

Independence Party

Withdrawn

Independent write-in candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Campaign

During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith. [62] [63]

Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13, [64] September 22, [65] and October 1. [66]

In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume [his] silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead. [67]

On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. [68] The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham. [69] The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race. [70] Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer. [71] [72] [73] [74]

Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation). [75] [76]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
538 [77] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2020
Economist [78] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2020
Daily Kos [79] TossupOctober 30, 2020
DDHQ [80] Lean D (flip)November 3, 2020
Inside Elections [81] Tilt D (flip)October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [82] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2020
RCP [83] TossupOctober 23, 2020
The Cook Political Report [84] TossupOctober 29, 2020
Politico [85] TossupNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Thom Tillis (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. executive branch officials
Organizations
Cal Cunningham (D)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators, representatives, and federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Fundraising

In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million. [123]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updated Cal Cunningham Thom Tillis Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 17] Margin
270 to Win November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.0%44.2%8.8%
Real Clear Politics November 1, 2020November 3, 202047.6%45.0%7.4%

Tillis vs. Cunningham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis (R)		Cal
Cunningham (D)		Shannon
Bray (L)		Other /
Undecided
Change Research/CNBC October 29 – November 1, 2020473 (LV)± 4.51%46%50%–5% [lower-alpha 18]
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 27 – November 1, 2020619 (LV)± 5.6%47%53%––
Ipsos/Reuters October 27 – November 1, 2020707 (LV)± 4.2%46%48%–6% [lower-alpha 19]
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020908 (LV)± 3.3%46%51%1%1% [lower-alpha 20]
Frederick Polls [upper-alpha 3] October 30–31, 2020676 (LV)± 3.7%46%50%3%2% [lower-alpha 21]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020855 (LV)± 3.3%47% [lower-alpha 22] 50%–2% [lower-alpha 23]
Morning Consult October 22–31, 20201,982 (LV)± 2%43%47%––
CNN/SSRS Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 23–30, 2020901 (LV)± 4%44%47%2%5% [lower-alpha 24]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 28–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%44%47%–9% [lower-alpha 25]
East Carolina University October 27–28, 20201,103 (LV)± 3.4%46% [lower-alpha 22] 48%–5% [lower-alpha 26]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) October 27–28, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%46%41%6%7% [lower-alpha 27]
Marist College/NBC October 25–28, 2020800 (LV)± 4.7%43%53%–4% [lower-alpha 28]
Gravis Marketing October 26–27, 2020614 (LV)± 4%44%46%–9% [lower-alpha 29]
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 4] October 26–27, 2020937 (V)± 3.2%44%47%–9% [lower-alpha 29]
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R) Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%43%47%––
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 23–27, 20201,034 (LV)± 3.4%43%46%2%9% [lower-alpha 30]
Ipsos/Reuters October 21–27, 2020647 (LV)± 4.4%47%48%–4% [lower-alpha 31]
RMG Research Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 32] October 24–26, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%42% [lower-alpha 11] 49%–9% [lower-alpha 33]
40% [lower-alpha 34] 51%–9% [lower-alpha 33]
43% [lower-alpha 35] 48%–9% [lower-alpha 33]
Swayable October 23–26, 2020363 (LV)± 7.1%50%50%––
SurveyUSA October 23–26, 2020627 (LV)± 4.9%45%48%–7% [lower-alpha 36]
YouGov/UMass Lowell October 20–26, 2020911 (LV)± 4.2%45%49%–7% [lower-alpha 37]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) October 22–25, 2020504 (LV)± 4.37%43%46%2%8% [lower-alpha 38]
YouGov/CBS October 20–23, 20201,022 (LV)± 4.1%43%49%–8% [lower-alpha 39]
Trafalgar Group October 20–22, 20201,098 (LV)± 2.89%49%47%2%2% [lower-alpha 40]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports October 20–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%45%45%–10% [lower-alpha 41]
Citizen Data October 17–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%42%48%–9% [lower-alpha 42]
Ipsos/Reuters October 14–20, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%47%47%–6% [lower-alpha 43]
Morning Consult October 11–20, 20201,904 (LV)± 2.2%42%48%––
Meredith College October 16–19, 2020732 (LV)± 3.5%38%43%4%15% [lower-alpha 44]
Change Research/CNBC October 16–19, 2020521 (LV) [lower-alpha 45] –45%51%––
Data for Progress (D) October 15–18, 2020929 (LV)± 3.2%42%46%1%11% [lower-alpha 46]
East Carolina University October 15–18, 20201,155 (LV)± 3.4%47%48%–5% [lower-alpha 47]
ABC/Washington Post October 12–17, 2020646 (LV)± 4.5%47%49%–4% [lower-alpha 48]
Emerson College October 13–14, 2020721 (LV)± 3.6%44%45%–12% [lower-alpha 49]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 11–14, 20201,211 (LV)± 3.3%45%51%2%3% [lower-alpha 50]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 9–13, 2020627 (LV)± 4.5%37%41%4%19% [lower-alpha 51]
Ipsos/Reuters October 7–13, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%42%46%–12% [lower-alpha 52]
Monmouth University October 8–11, 2020500 (RV)± 4.4%44%48%3%4% [lower-alpha 53]
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 54] 44%49%–6% [lower-alpha 55]
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 56] 47%48%–4% [lower-alpha 28]
SurveyUSA October 8–11, 2020669 (LV)± 4.8%39%49%–11% [lower-alpha 57]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) [upper-alpha 5] October 7–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%44%46%–9% [lower-alpha 58]
RMG Research Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 59] October 7–11, 2020800 (LV)–36%46%4%15% [lower-alpha 60]
Morning Consult October 2–11, 20201,993 (LV)± 2.2%41%47%––
Ipsos/Reuters September 29 – October 6, 2020693 (LV)± 4.2%42%47%–11% [lower-alpha 61]
Public Policy Polling October 4–5, 2020911 (V)± 3.3%42%48%–11% [lower-alpha 62]
Data For Progress (D) September 30 – October 5, 20201,285 (LV)± 2.7%39%50%2%9% [lower-alpha 63]
Change Research/CNBC October 2–4, 2020396 (LV)–46%50%–4% [lower-alpha 64]
East Carolina University October 2–4, 20201,232 (LV)± 3.2%47%46%–7% [lower-alpha 65]
ALG Research (D) [upper-alpha 6] September 22–28, 2020822 (V)–41%53%––
Hart Research Associates (D) [upper-alpha 7] September 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%41%54%––
YouGov/CBS September 22–25, 20201,213 (LV)± 3.6%38%48%–14% [lower-alpha 66]
YouGov/UMass Lowell September 18–25, 2020921 (LV)± 4.1%43%49%–8% [lower-alpha 67]
Meredith College September 18–22, 2020705 (RV)± 3.5%42%43%4%13% [lower-alpha 68]
Change Research/CNBC September 18–20, 2020579 (LV)–43%48%–9% [lower-alpha 69]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) September 17–20, 2020612 (LV)± 3.96%38%44%3%15% [lower-alpha 70]
Morning Consult September 11–20, 20201,604 (LV)± (2% – 7%)38% [lower-alpha 71] 47%––
Emerson College September 16–18, 2020717 (LV)± 3.6%43%49%–8% [lower-alpha 72]
Morning Consult September 8–17, 20201,664 (LV) [lower-alpha 45] ± (2% – 4%)39%46%––
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%44%48%–9% [lower-alpha 73]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%37%42%2%19% [lower-alpha 74]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–15, 20201,092 (LV)± 2.97%38%49%–13% [lower-alpha 75]
Suffolk University September 10–14, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%38%42%6%15% [lower-alpha 76]
SurveyUSA September 10–13, 2020596 (LV)± 5.6%40%47%–13% [lower-alpha 77]
CNN/SSRS September 9–13, 2020787 (LV)± 4.4%46%47%3%4% [lower-alpha 78]
893 (RV)± 4.1%44%46%4%6% [lower-alpha 79]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report August 29 – September 13, 20201,116 (RV)–37%41%–22% [lower-alpha 80]
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 9–11, 20201,046 (LV)± 3.0%45%46%3%6% [lower-alpha 81]
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research September 7–8, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.0%44%47%–10% [lower-alpha 82]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group [upper-alpha 8] August 8 – September 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%39%42%5%13% [lower-alpha 83]
Change Research/CNBC September 4–6, 2020442 (LV)± 4.6%44%51%–5% [lower-alpha 84]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 30 – September 3, 2020951 (LV)± 3.2%37%47%–16% [lower-alpha 85]
Monmouth University August 29 – September 1, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%45%46%2%7% [lower-alpha 86]
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 87] 45%47%–8% [lower-alpha 88]
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 89] 46%46%–8% [lower-alpha 88]
FOX News August 29 – September 1, 2020722 (LV)± 3.5%42%48%3%8% [lower-alpha 90]
804 (RV)40%47%3%10% [lower-alpha 91]
East Carolina University August 29–30, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.4%44%44%–12% [lower-alpha 92]
Change Research/CNBC August 21–23, 2020560 (LV)± 3.6%42%52%–6% [lower-alpha 93]
Morning Consult August 14–23, 20201,541 (LV)± 2.0%39%47%–14%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies August 16–18, 2020856 (LV)± 3.4%38%47%–16% [lower-alpha 94]
East Carolina University August 12–13, 20201,255 (RV)± 3.2%40%44%–16% [lower-alpha 95]
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020673 (LV)± 3.8%42%44%–14% [lower-alpha 96]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 6–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%38%41%2%18% [lower-alpha 97]
Change Research/CNBC August 7–9, 2020491 (LV)± 4.4%43%48%–10% [lower-alpha 98]
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 9] July 30–31, 2020934 (V)± 3.2%44%48%–8% [lower-alpha 72]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 20201,170 (LV)± 3.2%41%49%–10% [lower-alpha 99]
YouGov/CBS July 28–31, 20201,121 (LV)± 3.8%39%48%–12% [lower-alpha 100]
HIT Strategies (D) [upper-alpha 10] July 23–31, 2020400 (RV)± 4.9%32%48%–21% [lower-alpha 101]
Change Research/CNBC July 24–26, 2020284 (LV)± 5.6%40%52%–8%
Morning Consult July 17–26, 20201,504 (LV)± 3.0%37%46%–17%
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) Archived July 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 102] July 22–24, 2020735 (LV)± 3.6%43%43%1%13% [lower-alpha 103]
Public Policy Polling July 22–23, 2020939 (V)± 3.2%40%48%–13% [lower-alpha 104]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 19–23, 2020919 (LV)± 3.2%36%47%–16% [lower-alpha 105]
Marist College/NBC News July 14–22, 2020882 (RV)± 4.0%41%50%–10% [lower-alpha 106]
Spry Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 11] July 11–16, 2020750 (LV)± 3.5%40%40%–20% [lower-alpha 107]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) July 13–15, 2020547 (LV)± 4.2%44%47%1%7% [lower-alpha 108]
Change Research/CNBC July 10–12, 2020655 (LV)± 3.8%42%49%–9% [lower-alpha 109]
Public Policy Polling July 7–8, 2020818 (V)± 3.4%39%47%–15% [lower-alpha 110]
Change Research/CNBC June 26–28, 2020468 (LV) [lower-alpha 45] ± 3.9%41%51%–8% [lower-alpha 111]
East Carolina University June 22–25, 20201,149 (RV)± 3.4%41%41%–18% [lower-alpha 112]
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 20201,157 (V)± 2.9%40%44%–16% [lower-alpha 113]
FOX News June 20–23, 20201,012 (RV)± 3.0%37%39%3%20% [lower-alpha 114]
NYT Upshot/Siena College June 8–18, 2020653 (RV)± 4.1%39%42%–19% [lower-alpha 115]
Gravis Marketing (R) [upper-alpha 12] June 17, 2020631 (RV)± 3.9%46%45%–9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020902 (LV)± 3.3%36%45%–19% [lower-alpha 116]
Public Policy Polling June 2–3, 2020913 (V)± 3.2%41%43%–16% [lower-alpha 113]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%38%36%3%24% [lower-alpha 117]
Meeting Street Insights (R) Archived June 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 118] May 9–13, 2020500 (RV)± 3.8%44%46%–8% [lower-alpha 72]
East Carolina University May 7–9, 20201,111 (RV)± 3.4%40%41%–19% [lower-alpha 119]
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) May 2–4, 20201,362 (RV)± 3.0%41%50%–9% [lower-alpha 120]
Meredith College April 27–28, 2020604 (RV)± 4.0%34%44%–22%
SurveyUSA April 23–26, 2020580 (LV)± 5.5%39%41%–20% [lower-alpha 121]
Public Policy Polling April 14–15, 20201,318 (LV)± 3.4%40%47%–13%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%38%34%–28%
East Carolina University February 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%44%42%–14%
NBC News/Marist February 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.6%43%48%–9%
Public Policy Polling [upper-alpha 13] February 25–26, 2020 [lower-alpha 45] 911 (RV)–41%46%–13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 14] January 11–15, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%44%–8%
ALG Research (D) [upper-alpha 15] January 8–13, 2020700 (LV)–42%44%–13%
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3%33%33%–32%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 15] September 16–17, 2019628 (V)± 3.9%43%45%–12%
Fabrizio Ward [upper-alpha 8] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%41%42%–17%
Public Policy Polling [upper-alpha 16] June 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%40%41%–19%
Hypothetical polling
with Erica D. Smith
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis (R)		Erica D.
Smith (D)		Undecided
Meredith College September 29 – October 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3%33%34%17%
Emerson College Archived June 4, 2019, at the Wayback Machine May 31 – June 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%39%46%15%
with Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 17] June 30 – July 1, 20171,102 (V)± 3.6%44%48%8%
with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis (R)		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
Fabrizio Ward [upper-alpha 8] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%26%52% [lower-alpha 122] 3% [lower-alpha 123] 19%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Other/Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters September 11–16, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%47%48%5% [lower-alpha 124]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 11–16, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%48%44%8% [lower-alpha 125]
Emerson College August 8–10, 2020673 (LV)± 3.8%45%44%11% [lower-alpha 62]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) August 6–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4%42%43%16% [lower-alpha 126]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) May 26–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%43%40%17% [lower-alpha 127]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine April 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%41%42%17% [lower-alpha 127]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released March 17, 2020– [lower-alpha 13] –44%41%15% [lower-alpha 128]
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%46%11%
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released October 17, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –40%41%20% [lower-alpha 129]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released September 11, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –37%42%21% [lower-alpha 130]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released August 4, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –39%37%24% [lower-alpha 131]
Fabrizio Ward [upper-alpha 8] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%44%44%11% [lower-alpha 132]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released June 10, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –38%38%24% [lower-alpha 133]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released May 5, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –39%39%22% [lower-alpha 134]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released March 17, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –37%40%22% [lower-alpha 135]
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) Released February 13, 2019– [lower-alpha 13] –37%38%25% [lower-alpha 136]

Results

Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Tillis did much better on Election Day than pre-election prediction polling indicated. The senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his alleged affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign. [124]

2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina [125]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Thom Tillis (incumbent) 2,665,598 48.69% −0.13%
Democratic Cal Cunningham 2,569,96546.94%−0.32%
Libertarian Shannon Bray171,5713.13%−0.61%
Constitution Kevin E. Hayes67,8181.24%N/A
Total votes5,474,952 100.0%
Republican hold
By county
County [126] Thom Tillis
Republican 		Cal Cunningham
Democratic 		Shannon Bray
Libertarian 		Kevin Hayes
Constitution 		MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Alamance 44,24651.7438,03844.492,3022.699221.086,2087.2685,508
Alexander 14,73973.534,28721.395632.814552.2710,45252.1520,044
Alleghany 4,08267.951,58726.421923.201462.432,49541.536,007
Anson 4,98144.845,75651.822041.841671.50-775-6.9811,108
Ashe 10,61967.914,27927.374572.922811.806,34040.5515,636
Avery 6,86573.652,07922.302462.641311.414,78651.359,321
Beaufort 15,44859.319,43936.247062.714531.746,00923.0726,046
Bertie 3,59737.115,82560.091581.631141.18-2,228-22.989,694
Bladen 8,96753.127,28043.133992.362351.391,6879.9916,881
Brunswick 52,97159.3832,18036.082,8813.231,1701.3120,79123.3189,202
Buncombe 60,68837.9292,66457.905,0543.161,6361.02-31,976-19.98160,042
Burke 28,93465.5113,10829.681,3092.968191.8515,82635.8344,170
Cabarrus 61,23152.7448,88642.114,2613.671,7241.4812,34510.63116,102
Caldwell 29,97170.7610,28824.291,2993.077991.8919,68346.4742,357
Camden 4,18171.621,40324.031833.13711.222,77847.595,838
Carteret 28,49267.4711,82328.001,3123.116011.4216,66939.4742,228
Caswell 6,64355.544,91641.102782.321241.041,72714.4411,961
Catawba 54,00465.1624,84529.982,5503.081,4841.7929,15935.1882,883
Chatham 21,03943.5225,69753.161,1712.424310.89-4,658-9.6448,338
Cherokee 12,04873.983,58922.044082.502411.488,45951.9416,286
Chowan 4,35356.613,12440.631391.81730.951,22915.987,689
Clay 4,89771.901,67624.611402.05981.443,22147.296,811
Cleveland 32,02263.0616,75232.991,2352.437681.5115,27030.0750,777
Columbus 15,56359.629,59936.775161.984241.625,96422.8526,102
Craven 29,54256.2520,41638.871,7723.377911.519,12617.3852,521
Cumberland 57,12139.2081,00155.595,3793.692,2181.52-23,880-16.39145,719
Currituck 11,36871.293,84924.145543.471751.107,51947.1515,946
Dare 13,58156.989,28438.957663.212040.864,29718.0323,835
Davidson 60,68668.8123,66026.832,4962.831,3461.5337,02641.9988,188
Davie 17,41569.216,57026.117813.103961.5710,84543.1025,162
Duplin 12,95457.758,68938.734772.133121.394,26519.0122,432
Durham 34,15219.20138,42977.405,0412.821,2240.68-104,277-58.30178,846
Edgecombe 8,58233.9015,95263.015062.002781.10-7,370-29.1125,318
Forsyth 83,22841.72107,27753.776,5333.272,4711.24-24,049-12.05199,509
Franklin 19,65452.9415,65942.181,2463.365651.523,99510.7637,124
Gaston 69,39860.7739,59534.673,5483.111,6601.4529,80326.07114,201
Gates 3,20554.462,47442.041322.24741.2673112.425,885
Graham 3,35573.751,01322.27942.07871.912,34251.484,549
Granville 15,68750.0214,36845.829082.903961.261,3194.2131,359
Greene 4,59152.783,84244.171892.17770.897498.618,699
Guilford 104,90837.18165,82358.778,5873.042,8191.00-60,915-21.59282,137
Halifax 9,44636.9315,43860.364561.782370.93-5,992-23.4325,577
Harnett 33,32157.5721,52337.182,1283.689111.5711,79820.3857,883
Haywood 21,50259.2613,11336.141,0812.985871.628,38923.1236,283
Henderson 39,35957.9925,78237.991,9642.897681.1313,57720.0067,873
Hertford 3,30531.806,81565.581541.481181.14-3,510-33.7810,392
Hoke 8,63840.4011,46653.629094.253701.73-2,828-13.2221,383
Hyde 1,31553.261,07543.54532.15261.052409.722,469
Iredell 64,31963.4431,89331.463,4873.441,6871.6632,42631.98101,386
Jackson 10,76350.689,38244.177883.713061.441,3816.5021,239
Johnston 64,82258.8239,77136.093,9533.591,6671.5125,05122.73110,213
Jones 3,04655.852,12438.941823.341021.8792216.915,454
Lee 15,41953.7011,85141.279793.414651.623,56812.4328,714
Lenoir 13,89849.4313,28447.245912.103461.236142.1828,119
Lincoln 34,67369.6612,85825.831,4822.987631.5321,81543.8349,776
Macon 13,40865.356,24830.455212.543401.667,16034.9020,517
Madison 7,39957.174,98738.533622.801951.512,41218.6412,943
Martin 6,03448.575,97348.082572.071601.29610.4912,424
McDowell 15,89469.875,93426.095652.483541.569,96043.7922,747
Mecklenburg 186,69333.18350,77562.3419,7643.515,4400.97-164,082-29.16562,672
Mitchell 6,73575.321,91921.461812.021071.204,81653.868,942
Montgomery 7,74160.954,37934.483242.552562.023,36226.4712,700
Moore 35,68261.7119,63333.951,7603.047481.2916,04927.7657,823
Nash 24,71947.6325,47449.091,1172.155851.13-755-1.4651,895
New Hanover 61,41547.1361,70247.355,5164.231,6851.29-287-0.22130,318
Northampton 3,72037.166,00559.981871.87990.99-2,285-22.8210,011
Onslow 42,86860.2123,34432.793,6275.091,3631.9119,52427.4271,202
Orange 20,86224.6861,21472.421,9612.324880.58-40,352-47.7484,525
Pamlico 4,58960.532,68135.361882.481231.621,90825.177,581
Pasquotank 9,49148.319,42147.955382.741981.01700.3619,648
Pender 20,66061.2011,27233.391,2743.775531.649,38827.8133,759
Perquimans 4,81764.872,38232.081391.87881.192,43532.797,426
Person 12,19256.498,47539.276002.783151.463,71717.2221,582
Pitt 37,94743.6745,59852.472,5102.898460.97-7,651-8.8086,901
Polk 7,39460.354,43636.212862.331361.112,95824.1412,252
Randolph 53,35773.5215,97322.012,0972.891,1431.5837,38451.5172,570
Richmond 11,00253.858,51041.655662.773521.722,49212.2020,430
Robeson 25,21154.8719,13541.649552.086481.416,07613.2245,949
Rockingham 28,97161.2316,18934.221,4733.116801.4412,78227.0247,313
Rowan 46,44663.8422,61531.092,2543.101,4331.9723,83132.7672,748
Rutherford 23,59669.269,13626.827812.295541.6314,46042.4534,067
Sampson 16,52158.2510,81838.156362.243851.365,70320.1128,360
Scotland 7,06648.866,85047.373222.232231.542161.4914,461
Stanly 23,89171.178,04523.969612.866742.0115,84647.2033,571
Stokes 18,59972.995,61122.028123.194581.8012,98850.9725,480
Surry 25,47570.179,26725.531,0302.845311.4616,20844.6536,303
Swain 3,84655.172,69638.672984.271311.881,15016.506,971
Transylvania 11,20955.488,15840.385522.732861.423,05115.1020,205
Tyrrell 94552.9777843.61372.07241.351679.361,784
Union 79,64561.3445,09634.733,7652.901,3381.0334,54926.61129,844
Vance 7,87637.8412,24758.844552.192371.14-4,371-21.0020,815
Wake 232,38837.05367,71858.6322,2303.544,8930.78-135,330-21.58627,229
Warren 3,52034.306,43762.721941.891121.09-2,917-28.4210,263
Washington 2,58442.053,32954.171282.081041.69-745-12.126,145
Watauga 14,21644.5916,19350.801,1383.573311.04-1,977-6.2031,878
Wayne 29,17453.1023,52842.821,4192.588231.505,64610.2854,944
Wilkes 25,48872.678,07423.029242.645871.6717,41449.6535,073
Wilson 18,64246.1320,44550.598852.194391.09-1,803-4.4640,411
Yadkin 14,79874.864,03620.425532.803811.9310,76254.4419,768
Yancey 7,03862.393,83333.982502.221591.413,20528.4111,280
Totals2,665,59848.692,569,96546.94171,5713.1367,8181.2495,6331.755,474,952
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Garland Tucker campaign
  2. 1 2 3 Poll conducted by the Club for Growth, a pro-Republican PAC
  3. ↑ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by The American Greatness PAC, which is pro-Trump.
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by Piedmont Rising, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. ↑ This poll's sponsor had endorsed Cunningham prior to the sampling period
  10. ↑ This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  11. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  12. ↑ Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  13. ↑ Poll sponsored by private client
  14. ↑ Internal poll
  15. 1 2 Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, an organization that has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates
  16. ↑ Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org
  17. ↑ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Hudson with 8%; Holmquist with 5%
  3. ↑ Holmquist and Hudson with 5%
  4. ↑ Holmquist and Hudson with 3%
  5. ↑ Holmquist and Hudson with 4%
  6. ↑ Holmquist with 3%; Hudson with 2%
  7. ↑ Hudson with 3%; Holmquist with 2%
  8. ↑ If the only candidates were Smith and Tillis
  9. ↑ "None of the above" with 5%; "other" with 0%
  10. ↑ If the only candidates were Tillis and Tucker
  11. 1 2 3 4 Standard VI response
  12. 1 2 Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Tillis
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Not yet released
  14. ↑ Response after pollster addresses respondents with short biographies for Tillis and Walker
  15. ↑ Response after short biographies and talking points about Tillis
  16. 1 2 Listed as "would consider another candidate in a Republican primary"
  17. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  18. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; Did not vote, would not vote and Undecided with 1%
  19. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  20. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  21. ↑ Hayes (C) with 2%
  22. 1 2 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  24. ↑ Hayes (C) and Undecided with 2%; "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  25. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  26. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with no voters
  27. ↑ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  28. 1 2 "Other" and Undecided with 2%
  29. 1 2 Undecided with 9%
  30. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  31. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  32. ↑ Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  33. 1 2 3 "Someoene else" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  34. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  35. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  36. ↑ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  37. ↑ Did not vote with 1%; "Another candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 6%
  38. ↑ Hays (C) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  39. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 5%
  40. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  41. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  42. ↑ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  43. ↑ "Some other candidate" and "Undecided/Refused" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  44. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  45. 1 2 3 4 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  46. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  47. ↑ Did/would not vote and "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  48. ↑ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  49. ↑ Undecided with 12%
  50. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  51. ↑ Hayes (C) with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 15%
  52. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  53. ↑ "No one" with 1%; Hayes (C) with 0%; "Other candidate" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  54. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  55. ↑ "Other" and Undecided with 3%
  56. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  57. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 8%
  58. ↑ "Other" and "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  59. ↑ Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  60. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 12%
  61. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  62. 1 2 Undecided with 11%
  63. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  64. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  65. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  66. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 11%
  67. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  68. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  69. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; "Don't recall" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  70. ↑ Bray (L) with 2%; Undecided with 13%
  71. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  72. 1 2 3 Undecided with 8%
  73. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  74. ↑ Hayes (C), "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 16%
  75. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  76. ↑ Bray (L) with 6%; Hayes (C) and "Other" with 2%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 11%
  77. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  78. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with no voters; Undecided with 3%
  79. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  80. ↑ "Neither/Another Party" with 3%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 19%
  81. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  82. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  83. ↑ Hayes with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 12%
  84. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  85. ↑ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
  86. ↑ Hayes (C) and "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with <1%; Undecided with 5%
  87. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  88. 1 2 "Other" and Undecided with 4%
  89. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  90. ↑ Hayes (C), "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  91. ↑ Hayes (C) with 2%; "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  92. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  93. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  94. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 13%
  95. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 5%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  96. ↑ Undecided with 14%
  97. ↑ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 16%
  98. ↑ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  99. ↑ "No one" with 10%
  100. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 9%
  101. ↑ "Third party candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 15%
  102. ↑ Archived July 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  103. ↑ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  104. ↑ Undecided with 13%
  105. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 14%
  106. ↑ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 9%
  107. ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 13%
  108. ↑ Hayes (C) with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  109. ↑ Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 2%
  110. ↑ Undecided with 15%
  111. ↑ Undecided with 7%; would not vote with 1%
  112. ↑ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 8%
  113. 1 2 Undecided with 16%
  114. ↑ Undecided with 15%; Hayes (C) with 3%; "other" and would not vote with 1%
  115. ↑ Undecided with 17%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  116. ↑ Undecided with 16%; "Another third party/write in" with 3%
  117. ↑ Hayes (C) with 2%; Undecided with 21%
  118. ↑ Archived June 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  119. ↑ Undecided with 11%; "other candidate" with 8%
  120. ↑ Undecided with 5%; "Someone else" with 4%
  121. ↑ Undecided with 20%
  122. ↑ "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 50% as opposed to "Thillis has performed his job as U.S. Senator well enough to deserve re-election"
  123. ↑ "Refused" with 3%
  124. ↑ "Prefer not to answer/Refused" with 4%; "Candidate from another political party" with 1%; "Will not vote/not sure" with 0%
  125. ↑ "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  126. ↑ "Neither" and "Other Party" with 1%; Undecided with 14%
  127. 1 2 Undecided with 14%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  128. ↑ Undecided with 11%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%
  129. ↑ Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 3%
  130. ↑ Undecided with 16%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  131. ↑ Undecided with 19%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  132. ↑ "Undecided" with 8%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
  133. ↑ Undecided with 18%; "Neither/other/independent" with 6%
  134. ↑ Undecided with 17%; "Neither/other/independent" with 5%
  135. ↑ Undecided with 15%; "Neither/other/independent" with 7%
  136. ↑ Undecided with 21%; "Neither/other/independent" with 4%

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">North Carolina Republican Party</span> North Carolina affiliate of the Republican Party

The North Carolina Republican Party (NCGOP) is the affiliate of the Republican Party in North Carolina. Michael Whatley was the chair from 2019 until his election as national chair in March 2024. It is currently the state's favored party, controlling half of North Carolina's U.S. House seats, both U.S. Senate seats, and a 3/5 supermajority control of both chambers of the state legislature, as well as a majority on the state supreme court.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thom Tillis</span> American politician (born 1960)

Thomas Roland Tillis is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from North Carolina, a seat he has held since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Tillis served in the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2007 to 2015, and as its speaker from 2011 to 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Michigan</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia</span>

The 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020, and on January 5, 2021, to elect the Class II member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia. Democrat Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in the runoff election. The general election was held concurrently with the 2020 presidential election, as well as with other elections to the Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Virginia</span> U.S. Senate race Virginia 2020

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Iowa</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Montana</span> American election

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Maine</span> U.S. Senate election in Maine

The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was Maine's first election for its Class 2 seat to use its ranked choice voting system. Because the first round of the general election saw a majority (51%), the instant runoff tabulation of more than 800,000 ballots was not carried out.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina</span> Election

The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election</span>

The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was eligible to run for re-election to a second term in office, and announced his intention to do so on December 5, 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Erica D. Smith</span> American politician in North Carolina

Erica Danette Smith is an American engineer and politician who represented District 3 in the North Carolina Senate from 2015 to 2021. She was a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2020. She finished second in the Democratic primaries on March 3, 2020. She was a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2022, but she switched to the race for North Carolina's 1st congressional district after Rep. G. K. Butterfield announced that he would not run for another term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona</span> Election of US Senator Mark Kelly

The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina</span>

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 13 U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, one from each of the state's 13 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina. Primary elections were scheduled for March 8, 2022, but were delayed by the North Carolina Supreme Court and rescheduled for May 17.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 North Carolina's 3rd congressional district special election</span>

A special election was held on September 10, 2019, to fill the vacancy in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 116th United States Congress. Walter B. Jones Jr., the incumbent representative, died on February 10, 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina</span>

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 8, 2022, to elect U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, concurrent with nationwide elections to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, alongside legislative elections to the state house and senate. Primaries were held on May 17, 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election</span>

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and can not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.

References

  1. 1 2 3 "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. North Carolina Board of Elections. Retrieved March 7, 2020.
  2. ↑ "Thom Tillis claims victory, Cal Cunningham waiting on all votes to be counted". wcnc.com. November 3, 2020.
  3. ↑ Robertson, Gary D. (October 3, 2020). "N. Carolina Senate race upended by sexting, virus diagnosis". Associated Press .
  4. ↑ Buck, Rebecca (October 3, 2020). "Democratic Senate candidate in North Carolina confirms romantic texts with woman who isn't his wife". CNN. Retrieved July 21, 2022.
  5. ↑ Arkin, James (October 6, 2020). "Cal Cunningham under fire after more texts revealed". Politico . Retrieved October 7, 2020.
  6. ↑ Copp, Tara; Murphy, Brian; Alexander, Ames (October 7, 2020). "After woman confirms affair, her husband calls on Cunningham to drop out of NC Senate race". News & Observer. Retrieved October 9, 2020.
  7. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". economist.com. Retrieved February 12, 2021.
  8. ↑ "Latest Polls". fivethirtyeight.com. June 28, 2018. Retrieved February 12, 2021.
  9. ↑ "Despite A Sexting Scandal, Democrat Cal Cunningham Is Favored In North Carolina's Senate Race". fivethirtyeight.com. October 15, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2021.
  10. ↑ "Cunningham concedes to US Sen. Tillis in North Carolina". Associated Press . Retrieved February 12, 2021.
  11. ↑ Snell, Kelsey; Walsh, Deirdre (November 10, 2020). "GOP Sen. Thom Tillis Wins Reelection In North Carolina After Democrat Concedes". NPR.org. Retrieved January 4, 2021.
  12. ↑ Fordham, Evie (November 10, 2020). "Cal Cunningham concedes to Thom Tillis in North Carolina Senate race". Fox News . Retrieved November 10, 2020.
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  16. ↑ Pathé, Simone (December 2, 2019). "Garland Tucker drops Senate primary challenge to North Carolina's Thom Tillis". Roll Call. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  17. ↑ Frey, Kevin [@KevinFreyTV] (April 30, 2019). "In interview with @costareports, Rep. Mark Meadows says there's "zero chance" he will primary @SenThomTillis, but says he believes Tillis will have a "legitimate" primary opponent #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved April 30, 2019– via Twitter.
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  27. ↑ "Thom Tillis getting his first serious 2020 challenger". charlotteobserver. Retrieved January 29, 2019.
  28. 1 2 Daniel, Nyamekye (December 9, 2019). "U.S. Sen. Tillis files for re-election amid handful of challengers". The Center Square. Retrieved December 20, 2019.
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  33. ↑ Campbell, Colin [@RaleighReporter] (July 5, 2019). "Just in: Former state Sen. Eric Mansfield announces he won't run for U.S. Senate after all. This leaves Cal Cunningham, Erica Smith and Trevor Fuller in the Democratic primary race #ncpol" (Tweet). Retrieved July 5, 2019– via Twitter.
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  37. ↑ Arkin, James (March 13, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Multiple Democrats eyeing Texas". Politico Pro. Retrieved March 13, 2019. Tom Ross, the president of the Volcker Alliance and former president of the University of North Carolina system, is a potential candidate, according to North Carolina Democrats. Ross, who was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate in 2016 but declined to run, confirmed to POLITICO that people have talked to him about the race and he's "considering what they have to say."
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  120. ↑ "Sierra Club Endorses Cal Cunningham". Calfornc. Archived from the original on May 8, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  121. ↑ "North Carolina – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  122. ↑ "Cal Cunningham for Senate". VoteVets.org. Archived from the original on October 1, 2020. Retrieved September 23, 2020.
  123. ↑ Bravender, Robin (April 26, 2020). "With first quarter fundraising surge, Cunningham outraises Tillis for the first time". ncpolicywatch.com. NC Policy Watch . Retrieved April 26, 2020.
  124. ↑ Millard, Drew (December 11, 2020). "How the Safe Bet Lost in North Carolina". The Nation. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
  125. ↑ "State Composite Abstract Report – Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  126. ↑ "North Carolina Senate Election Results 2020". National Election Pool . NBC News. March 7, 2021. Retrieved March 30, 2022.

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