2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas

Last updated

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2018 November 3, 2020 2022  

All 4 Kansas seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election31
Seats won31
Seat changeSteady2.svgSteady2.svg
Popular vote775,898557,258
Percentage57.10%41.01%
SwingIncrease2.svg 3.15%Decrease2.svg 2.88%

Kansas Congressional Election Results 2020.svg

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Kansas, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Contents

Overview

District Republican Democratic OthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 208,22971.16%84,39328.84%00.00%292,622100.0%Republican hold
District 2 185,46455.15%136,65040.63%14,2014.22%336,315100.0%Republican hold
District 3 178,77343.56%220,04953.62%11,5962.83%410,418100.0%Democratic hold
District 4 203,43263.65%116,16636.35%00.00%319,598100.0%Republican hold
Total775,89857.10%557,25841.01%25,7971.89%1,358,953100.0%
Popular vote
Republican
57.10%
Democratic
41.01%
Other
1.89%
House seats
Republican
75.00%
Democratic
25.00%

District 1

2020 Kansas's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2018
2022  
  Tracey Mann official portrait (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Tracey Mann Kali Barnett
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote208,22984,393
Percentage71.2%28.8%

KS 1st District 2020 Results.svg
County results
Mann:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Barnett:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election

Roger Marshall
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Tracey Mann
Republican

The 1st district takes in over half of Kansas, encompassing rural western and northern Kansas, including Manhattan, Salina, Dodge City, Emporia, Garden City, Hays and Hutchinson. The incumbent was Republican Roger Marshall, who was reelected with 68.1% of the vote in 2018. [1] Marshall announced on September 7, 2019, that he would not be running for re-election, opting to run for the open U.S. Senate seat in Kansas instead. [2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

Bill Clifford
State officials
  • Gary Harshberger, former Kansas Water Authority chairman [11]
Organizations
Tracey Mann
Federal officials
  • Bob Dole, former U.S. senator (R-KS) and 1996 Republican presidential nominee [13]
  • Tom Osborne, former U.S. representative (NE-03) (2001–2007) [14]
Organizations

Primary results

Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tracey Mann 65,373 54.2
Republican Bill Clifford39,91433.1
Republican Jerry Molstad9,5457.9
Republican Michael Soetaert5,7564.8
Total votes120,588 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
  • Kali Barnett, author and teacher [21]
Eliminated in primary
  • Christy Davis, concert director [22]
Withdrew

Primary results

Democratic primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kali Barnett 16,671 62.6
Democratic Christy Davis9,96237.4
Total votes26,633 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [25] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Inside Elections [26] Safe RJune 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Politico [28] Safe RApril 19, 2020
Daily Kos [29] Safe RJune 3, 2020
RCP [30] Safe RJune 9, 2020
Niskanen [31] Safe RJune 7, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Tracey
Mann (R)
Kali
Barnett (D)
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 2020761 (LV)± 3.5%61%25%

Results

Kansas's 1st congressional district, 2020 [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tracey Mann 208,229 71.2
Democratic Kali Barnett84,39328.8
Total votes292,622 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

2020 Kansas's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2018
2022  
  Jake LaTurner Congressional ID photo (117th).jpg Michelle De La Isla.jpg
Nominee Jake LaTurner Michelle De La Isla
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote185,464136,650
Percentage55.2%40.6%

KS 2nd District 2020 Results.svg
County results
LaTurner:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
De La Isla:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Steve Watkins
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jake LaTurner
Republican

The 2nd district encompasses most of eastern Kansas from Nebraska to Oklahoma save the Kansas City metropolitan area, including both the cities of Topeka and Lawrence. The incumbent is Republican Steve Watkins, who was elected with 47.6% of the vote in 2018. [1] In August 2019, Watkins evaded questions about his political future coming from reporters who encountered him at a Fort Scott constituent meeting in Southeast Kansas where he had been talking about aiding veterans. [33] Kansas State Treasurer Jake LaTurner had declared his intention to run for the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Pat Roberts, but was persuaded by Republican party officials to instead run against Watkins. [34]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Jake LaTurner
State officials
Organizations
Dennis Taylor

Primary results

Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jake LaTurner 47,898 49.1
Republican Steve Watkins (incumbent)33,05333.9
Republican Dennis Taylor16,51217.0
Total votes97,463 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn

Endorsements

Primary results

Democratic primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michelle De La Isla 41,050 75.0
Democratic James K. Windholz13,66225.0
Total votes54,712 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [25] Likely RAugust 5, 2020
Inside Elections [26] Safe RJune 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Likely RJuly 2, 2020
Politico [28] Lean RSeptember 8, 2020
Daily Kos [29] Likely RJune 3, 2020
RCP [30] Lean ROctober 24, 2020
Niskanen [31] Likely RJune 7, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jake
LaTurner (R)
Michelle
De La Isla (D)
Other/
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 2020739 (LV)± 3.6%47%36%
DCCC Targeting & Analytics Department (D) [upper-alpha 1] July 29–30, 2020488 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%
Battleground Connect (R) [upper-alpha 2] July 16–17, 20201,250 (LV)42%41%16% [lower-alpha 2]
Hypothetical polling
with Steve Watkins and Michelle De La Isla
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Steve
Watkins (R)
Michelle
De La Isla (D)
Other/
Undecided
Battleground Connect (R) [upper-alpha 2] July 16–17, 20201,250 (LV)37%50%13% [lower-alpha 3]

Results

Kansas's 2nd congressional district, 2020 [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jake LaTurner 185,464 55.2
Democratic Michelle De La Isla 136,65040.6
Libertarian Robert Garrard14,2014.2
Total votes336,315 100.0
Republican hold

District 3

2020 Kansas's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2018
2022  
  Sharice Davids (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Sharice Davids Amanda Adkins
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote220,049178,773
Percentage53.6%43.6%

KS 3rd District 2020 Results.svg
County results
Davids:     50–60%     60–70%
Adkins:     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Sharice Davids
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Sharice Davids
Democratic

The 3rd district encompasses the Kansas City metropolitan area, including Kansas City, Overland Park, Lenexa, Shawnee, Spring Hill, DeSoto and Olathe. The incumbent is Democrat Sharice Davids, who flipped the district and was elected with 53.6% of the vote in 2018, unseating four-term Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder. [1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Endorsements
Sharice Davids
U.S. presidents
Local officials
Organizations

Primary results

Democratic primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sharice Davids (incumbent) 74,437 100.0
Total votes74,437 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Adkins
Federal officials
State officials
Organizations
Individuals
Mike Beehler
Organizations
  • Kansans for Life (KFL) PAC (co-endorsed with Amanda Adkins, Adrienne Vallejo Foster, and Sara Hart Weir) [42]
Adrienne Foster
Federal officials
  • Todd Tiahrt, 2014 and 2017 Republican candidate in KS-04, former U.S. Representative (R-KS-04) (1995–2011), and Republican candidate in 2010 U.S. Senate election in Kansas [71]
State officials
  • Bill Sutton, state representative [74]
  • Jene Vickrey, state representative and former state House majority leader and speaker pro tempore [71]
Newspapers
Organizations
  • Kansans for Life (KFL) PAC (co-endorsed with Amanda Adkins, Mike Beehler, and Sara Hart Weir) [42]
Sara Hart Weir
Federal officials
Organizations

Primary results

Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Amanda Adkins 29,082 30.6
Republican Sara Hart Weir21,83323.0
Republican Adrienne Foster19,05720.1
Republican Mike Beehler18,39919.4
Republican Tom Love 6,5336.9
Total votes94,904 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [25] Safe DOctober 21, 2020
Inside Elections [26] Safe DOctober 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Safe DOctober 15, 2020
Politico [28] Lean DApril 19, 2020
Daily Kos [29] Safe DOctober 26, 2020
RCP [30] Likely DOctober 24, 2020
Niskanen [31] Likely DJune 7, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sharice
Davids (D)
Amanda
Adkins (R)
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 2020712 (LV)± 3.6%56%36%

Results

Kansas's 3rd congressional district, 2020 [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sharice Davids (incumbent) 220,049 53.6
Republican Amanda Adkins 178,77343.6
Libertarian Steven Hohe11,5962.8
Total votes410,418 100.0
Democratic hold

District 4

2020 Kansas's 4th congressional district election
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2018
2022  
  Ron Estes, 115th official photo (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Ron Estes Laura Lombard
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote203,432116,166
Percentage63.7%36.3%

KS 4th District 2020 Results.svg
County results
Estes:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election

Ron Estes
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ron Estes
Republican

The 4th district is located in south-central Kansas, taking in Wichita and the surrounding suburbs, including Derby and Newton. The incumbent is Republican Ron Estes, who won the 2017 special election for the seat vacated by Mike Pompeo and was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2018. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Primary results

Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ron Estes (incumbent) 87,877 100.0
Total votes87,877 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Laura Lombard, business consultant and candidate for Kansas's 4th congressional district in 2018 [77]

Primary results

Democratic primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Laura Lombard 35,437 100.0
Total votes35,437 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [25] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Inside Elections [26] Safe RJune 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [27] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Politico [28] Safe RApril 19, 2020
Daily Kos [29] Safe RJune 3, 2020
RCP [30] Safe RJune 9, 2020
Niskanen [31] Safe RJune 7, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Ron
Estes (R)
Laura
Lombard (D)
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) September 29–30, 2020842 (LV)± 3.3%51%37%

Results

Kansas's 4th congressional district, 2020 [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Ron Estes (incumbent) 203,432 63.7
Democratic Laura Lombard116,16636.3
Total votes319,598 100.0
Republican hold

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 16%
  3. Undecided with 13%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the DCCC.
  2. 1 2 Poll conducted for the LaTurner campaign.

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