2016 United States presidential election in Maine

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

2016 United States presidential election in Maine

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Turnout	72.53%
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Party Democratic Republican Libertarian Home state New York New York New Mexico Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence Bill Weld Electoral vote 3 1 0 Popular vote 357,735 335,593 38,105 Percentage 47.83% 44.87% 5.09%
County Results Municipality Results Congressional District Results Clinton   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   90-100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90-100% Stein   60–70% Tie
President before election Barack Obama Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[1] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The last time it did so was in 1828. ^[2]

Maine was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. It voted for the Democratic ticket only three times (1912, 1964, and 1968) from 1856 to 1988, but a Democrat has won the state's popular vote in every election since then. Although regarded as a safe blue state prior to the election, Maine shifted dramatically and unexpectedly towards the Republicans, with Clinton's 2.96% margin of victory the narrowest for a Democrat since 1988, when Republicans last won the state, and well down on Obama's 15.29% margin in 2012. As a measure of how Republican Maine once was at the presidential level, Trump is only the third Republican to win the White House without winning the popular vote in Maine after Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in both his 2000 and 2004 campaigns.

On election day, Clinton carried Maine's two at-large electoral votes with a plurality and won Maine's 1st congressional district, while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district, making him the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988 ^{[lower-alpha 1]} and also making him the first Republican to win an electoral vote from a New England state since George W. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000.

In addition to the historic electoral vote split in Maine, this marked the first time that such a split occurred after Maine began awarding electoral votes based on congressional districts in 1972. This was also the second time that a state split its Electoral College vote by congressional district since Nebraska in 2008.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Democratic caucus results by county.

  Bernie Sanders

Main article: 2016 Maine Democratic presidential caucuses

Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were on the ballot in Maine for the Democratic Presidential caucuses. Ahead of the caucuses, polling suggested that Sanders had a slight lead over Clinton.

Maine Democratic caucuses, March 6, 2016
Candidate	State convention delegates		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Bernie Sanders	2,226	64.17%	17	1	18
Hillary Clinton	1,231	35.49%	8	4	12
Uncommitted	12	0.35%	0	0	0
Total	3,469	100%	25	5	30
Source: The Green Papers

Sanders swept all of Maine's counties and also won a large share of the democratic caucus votes in New England.

Republican caucuses

Republican caucus results by county.

  Donald Trump

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

  Ted Cruz

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and John Kasich were all on the ballot for the 2016 Maine state Republican caucuses. The caucuses were held on March 5, 2016, in the following counties in Maine: Cumberland, Franklin, Piscataquis, Somerset, Aroostook, Androscoggin, Sagadahoc, Kennebec, Lincoln, Knox, Hancock, Waldo, Washington, York, Oxford, and Penobscot.

Ted Cruz won the caucus with 45.9% of the vote and was awarded 12 delegates, with Donald Trump in second, receiving 32.59% of the votes and 9 delegates. ^[3]

Maine Republican municipal caucuses, March 5, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Ted Cruz	8,550	45.90%	12	0	12
Donald Trump	6,070	32.59%	9	0	9
John Kasich	2,270	12.19%	2	0	2
Marco Rubio	1,492	8.01%	0	0	0
Ben Carson (withdrawn)	132	0.71%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	55	0.3%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	31	0.17%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	17	0.09%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	10	0.05%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	18,627	100%	23	0	23
Source: The Green Papers

Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally.

Green caucuses

Maine held a series of caucuses throughout the state between February 27 and March 19. The Maine Green Independent Party didn't compile the results until the state convention on May 7, during which it then assigned delegates based on the results. ^{[4] [5]}

On March 13, 2016, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the Maine Green Independent Party caucuses. ^[6]

Maine Green Party presidential caucus, February 27 – March 19, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	National delegates
Jill Stein	–	–	–
William Kreml	–	–	–
Kent Mesplay	–	–	–
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry	–	–	–
Darryl Cherney	–	–	–
Uncommitted	–	–	–
Total	-	-	-

Libertarian convention

The Libertarian Party nominated its ticket, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor William Weld for vice president, at its national convention in Orlando, Florida, on May 29, 2016. ^[7]

Until July 13, 2016, the Libertarian Party was not a legally recognized party in Maine. A 2013 change in the ballot access law permitted a party to gain recognition if they enroll 5,000 Maine voters in the party. The Libertarian Party of Maine turned approximately 6,500 signatures in to the Maine Secretary of State's office in 2015, but Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap invalidated 2,000 of them, bringing the total below the threshold required. The party then sued Dunlap, claiming Maine's ballot access requirements were unconstitutionally unreasonable. While losing an initial ruling by U.S. District Court Judge John Woodcock, ^[8] Woodcock later ordered that they be given until July 12 to collect the necessary signatures. ^[9] On July 13, Dunlap certified that 5,150 signatures had been validated, surpassing the threshold required to allow their candidates on the ballot. Maintenance of the status required obtaining 10,000 presidential votes in the general election. ^[10]

General election

Maine distributes 2 EVs based on the statewide vote and 1 EV for each congressional district's vote.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Los Angeles Times [11]	Safe D	November 6, 2016
CNN [12]	Safe D	November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report [13]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [14]	Likely D	November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [15]	Likely D	November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16]	Likely D	November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [17]	Tossup	November 8, 2016
Fox News [18]	Lean D	November 7, 2016

Polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Maine

Statewide, Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll but one with margins ranging from 3 to 11 points. The average of the last two polls showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump 46.5% to 41% statewide. ^[19]

Statewide Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Hillary Clinton (D)	Donald Trump (R)	Others	Undecided
Maine People's Resource Center [20]	November 2–3, 2016	450	4.7%	49%	35%	11%	5%
Maine People's Resource Center [21]	October 24–26, 2016	429	4.7%	45%	33%	13%	9%
Maine People's Resource Center [22]	October 14–15, 2016	469	4.5%	46%	36%	12%	7%
Maine People's Resource Center [23]	October 7–9, 2016	468	4.5%	49%	32%	11%	8%
University of New Hampshire [24]	September 15–20, 2016			50%	28%	14%	—
Maine People's Resource Center [25]	September 15–17, 2016	440	4.7%	41%	30%	17%	12%
University of New Hampshire [26]	June 15–21, 2016			48%	33%	16%	3%

Poll source	Date administered	Hillary Clinton (D)	Donald Trump (R)	Gary Johnson (L)	Jill Stein (G)	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Maine People's Resource Center [20]	November 2–3, 2016	49%	35%	7%	4%	6	450	± 3.4%
Maine People's Resource Center [21]	October 24–26, 2016	45%	33%	9%	4%	12	429	± 4.7%
Maine People's Resource Center [22]	October 14–15, 2016	45.5%	35.5%	7.9%	4%	10	469	± 4.5%
Maine People's Resource Center [23]	October 7–9, 2016	48.7%	32.3%	7.3%	3.4%	16.4	468	± 4.5%
Maine People's Resource Center [25]	September 15–17, 2016	41%	30%	12%	5%	11	440	± 4.7%
Colby College/Boston Globe [27]	September 4–10, 2016	49%	31%	9%	5%	18	382	± 5.3%
Emerson College [28]	September 2–5, 2016	52%	30%	9%	2%	22	404

1st congressional district

Hillary Clinton won every poll in the 1st Congressional District. The average of the last three polls had her leading 49% to 36%. ^[29]

2nd congressional district

Donald Trump won most of the polls conducted in Maine's 2nd district. He was ahead anywhere from 3 to 11 points, although Hillary Clinton won the last poll 44% to 42%. An average of the last two polls showed Trump leading Hillary Clinton 41.5% to 41%. ^[30]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Hillary Clinton (D)	Donald Trump (R)	Others	Undecided
Maine People's Resource Center [20]	November 2–3, 2016	405	4.9%	41%	43%	10%	6%
Maine People's Resource Center [21]	October 24–26, 2016	382	5%	38%	41%	11%	9%
Maine People's Resource Center [22]	October 14–15, 2016	420	4.8%	38%	37%	14%	11%
Maine People's Resource Center [23]	October 7–9, 2016	424	4.8%	39%	40%	13%	8%
University of New Hampshire [24]	September 15–20, 2016			34%	48%	16%	—
Maine People's Resource Center [25]	September 15–17, 2016	396	4.9%	33%	44%	14%	9%
University of New Hampshire [26]	June 15–21, 2016			36%	37%	23%	4%

Poll source	Date administered	Hillary Clinton (D)	Donald Trump (R)	Gary Johnson (L)	Jill Stein (G)	Lead margin	Sample size	Margin of error
Maine People's Resource Center [20]	November 2–3, 2016	41%	43%	8%	3%	2	405	± 4.9%
Maine People's Resource Center [21]	October 24–26, 2016	38%	41%	8%	3%	3	382	± 5%
Maine People's Resource Center [22]	October 14–15, 2016	38%	37%	11%	4%	1	420	± 4.8%
Maine People's Resource Center [23]	October 7–9, 2016	39%	40%	10%	2%	1	424	± 4.8%
Maine People's Resource Center [25]	September 15–17, 2016	33%	44%	10%	4%	11	396	± 4.9%
Colby College/Boston Globe [27]	September 4–10, 2016	37%	47%	8%	5%	10	397	± 5.0%
Emerson College [28]	September 2–5, 2016	36%	41%	14%	1%	5	399

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Maine ^[31]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Hillary Clinton	357,735	47.83%
	Republican	Donald Trump	335,593	44.87%
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson	38,105	5.09%
	Green	Jill Stein	14,251	1.91%
	Independent	Evan McMullin (write-in)	1,887	0.25%
	Constitution	Darrell Castle (write-in)	333	0.04%
	Independent	Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in)	16	0.00%
	Independent	Cherunda Lynn Fox (write-in)	7	0.00%
Invalid or blank votes			23,965	3.10% [32]
Majority			22,142	2.96%
Total votes			771,892	100.00%
Turnout				72.53
	Democratic win

County results

County	Hillary Clinton Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Androscoggin	23,009	41.38%	28,227	50.77%	4,365	7.85%	-5,218	-9.39%	55,601
Aroostook	13,386	38.14%	19,419	55.33%	2,292	6.53%	-6,033	-17.19%	35,097
Cumberland	102,981	59.94%	57,709	33.59%	11,128	6.47%	45,272	26.35%	171,818
Franklin	7,016	42.55%	7,918	48.02%	1,554	9.43%	-902	-5.47%	16,488
Hancock	16,117	50.16%	13,705	42.65%	2,308	7.19%	2,412	7.51%	32,130
Kennebec	29,302	44.26%	31,675	47.84%	5,231	7.90%	-2,373	-3.58%	66,208
Knox	12,443	53.76%	9,148	39.52%	1,556	6.72%	3,295	14.24%	23,147
Lincoln	10,241	47.63%	9,727	45.24%	1,535	7.13%	514	2.39%	21,503
Oxford	12,172	39.01%	16,210	51.95%	2,819	9.04%	-4,038	-12.94%	31,201
Penobscot	32,838	40.77%	41,622	51.68%	6,080	7.55%	-8,784	-10.91%	80,540
Piscataquis	3,098	33.74%	5,406	58.88%	678	7.38%	-2,308	-25.14%	9,182
Sagadahoc	10,664	49.33%	9,304	43.04%	1,648	7.63%	1,360	6.29%	21,616
Somerset	9,092	34.88%	15,001	57.55%	1,971	7.57%	-5,909	-22.67%	26,064
Waldo	10,440	45.98%	10,378	45.70%	1,889	8.32%	62	0.28%	22,707
Washington	6,075	37.12%	9,093	55.56%	1,197	7.32%	-3,018	-18.44%	16,365
York	55,844	48.87%	50,403	44.11%	8,027	7.02%	5,441	4.76%	114,274
Total	357,735	47.83%	335,593	44.87%	54,599	7.30%	22,142	2.96%	747,927

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

^[33]

• Androscoggin (largest city: Lewiston)
• Aroostook (largest city: Presque Isle)
• Franklin (largest town: Farmington)
• Kennebec (largest city: Augusta)
• Oxford (largest town: Rumford)
• Penobscot (largest city: Bangor)
• Somerset (largest town: Skowhegan)
• Washington (largest city: Calais)

By congressional district

Clinton won the southern 1st district while Trump carried the more rural 2nd district. ^[34]

District	Trump	Clinton	Representative
1st	39.15%	53.96%	Chellie Pingree
2nd	51.26%	40.97%	Bruce Poliquin

See also

• United States presidential elections in Maine
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
• 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

Notes

1. Bush won the entire state of Maine in addition to the 2nd district, not on a split vote.

References

1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . September 19, 2019. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
2. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. Archived from the original on September 10, 2018. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
3. "Maine Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Archived from the original on March 9, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
4. "IT'S A CRUCIAL TIME TO BE A GREEN PARTY MEMBER!". Maine Green Independent Party. January 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
5. "SCHEDULED CAUCUSES". Maine Green Independent Party. January 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
6. "Maine Green Independent Party holds caucuses". WCSH6.com.^{[ permanent dead link ]}
7. "Libertarian Party Selects Gary Johnson to be 2016 Nominee". C-SPAN.org. Archived from the original on March 9, 2021. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
8. Cousins, Christopher (April 25, 2016). "Judge rejects Libertarians' appeal to become Maine political party". The Bangor Daily News. Archived from the original on July 1, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
9. "Federal judge hands Maine libertarians a partial victory – The Portland Press Herald / Maine Sunday Telegram". May 27, 2016. Archived from the original on July 4, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
10. "Libertarians become Maine's fourth political party | State & Capitol". July 13, 2016. Archived from the original on October 7, 2021. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
11. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times . November 6, 2016. Archived from the original on June 9, 2019. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
12. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN . Archived from the original on April 18, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
13. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report . November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
14. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com . November 8, 2016. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
15. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on August 17, 2021. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
16. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics . Archived from the original on December 22, 2017. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
17. "2016 Election Maps – Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on December 31, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
18. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on September 29, 2017. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
19. "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Maine: Trump vs. Clinton". Archived from the original on June 7, 2017. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
20. "MPRC November 2016 Poll" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on May 6, 2020. Retrieved April 20, 2018.
21. "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. November 1, 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
22. "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. October 21, 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 22, 2016. Retrieved October 22, 2016.
23. "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. October 12, 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 12, 2016. Retrieved October 12, 2016.
24. "For the first time, it looks like Maine's electoral votes will be split". University of New Hampshire. Portland Press Herald. September 25, 2016. Archived from the original on September 26, 2016. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
25. "Methodology" (PDF). Maine People's Resource Center. September 20, 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 22, 2016. Retrieved September 20, 2016.
26. "Charts: Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram poll results". University of New Hampshire. Portland Press Herald. July 7, 2016. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
27. "Colby College/Boston Globe Election Poll". Colby College. September 13, 2016. Archived from the original on September 14, 2016. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
28. "Polls: Trump Threatens to Flip New Jersey, Rhode Island; Clinton Leads in New England States". www.peoplespunditdaily.com. September 7, 2016. Archived from the original on September 8, 2016. Retrieved September 7, 2016.
29. "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Maine CD1: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". Archived from the original on September 10, 2020. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
30. "RealClearPolitics – Election 2016 – Maine CD2: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". Archived from the original on September 10, 2020. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
31. "Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions, Elections and Voting, Results, 2014 Tabulations". State.me.us. Archived from the original on July 1, 2017. Retrieved August 25, 2017.
32. Percentage of total ballots cast
33. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post . ISSN   0190-8286. Archived from the original on August 3, 2020. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
34. LePage, Paul R. "Maine Certificate of Ascertainment 2016" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on October 19, 2020. Retrieved January 11, 2020.

External links

• RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
• Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
• Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Maine
• State of Maine – Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions – Elections & Voting – Election Results