2016 New York Republican presidential primary

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2016 New York Republican presidential primary
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95 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
  Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz
Home state New York Ohio Texas
Delegate count8960
Popular vote554,522231,166136,083
Percentage59.21%24.68%14.53%
2016 New York Republican presidential primary election results map by county (vote share).svg
2016 New York Republican presidential primary election results map by municipality (vote share).svg
2016 NY GOP presidential primary by Congressional Districts.svg

The 2016 New York Republican presidential primary was held on April 19 in the U.S. state of New York as one of the Republican Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

Donald Trump won his home state with 59% of the vote and picked up 89 pledged delegates. He won over all age groups, income levels and political ideologies, [1] with most voters saying they want a candidate who "can bring change" and "tells it like it is". Most voters supported Trump's proposed ban on Muslim immigration to the United States. [2]

The Democratic Party also held their own New York primary on the same day which was won by Hillary Clinton. Apart from that, no other primaries were scheduled for that day by either party.

The state of the campaign

National situation

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and 2 other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests. [3] [4]

On March 15's primaries, Donald Trump took four of the five contests- Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Trump however was defeated in Ohio by John Kasich, losing all 66 of the state's delegates. Marco Rubio suspended his campaign after losing the Florida contest, [5] leaving just Cruz and Kasich in the race to oppose Trump.

On March 22, Trump won the Arizona contest and all of its 58 pledged delegates, while Cruz capitalized on Trump's comments critical of Mitt Romney's Mormon faith [6] to take the state of Utah and its 40 delegates.

The month of April brought several strong performances for Cruz. He capitalized on a weak ground game in the Donald Trump campaign to win the conventions in North Dakota and Colorado, despite criticism from Donald Trump. [7] In addition, Ted Cruz won the valuable Wisconsin primary and with it 36 of the state's 42 delegates. Many considered the probability of a "contested" Republican National Convention as it was considered doubtful that Trump would receive the requisite 1,237 delegates. [8]

New York situation

Being Donald Trump's home state, New York was expected to be one of his strongest states in the primary contests. While Trump himself said that he would be satisfied with only one half of the delegates, most prognosticators said that Trump would have to perform extremely strongly in the state in order to avoid a contested convention. [9] Ted Cruz's attacks in a Fox Business Network primary debate in South Carolina, criticizing Donald Trump for holding what he referred to as "New York values"- meaning the liberal, left leaning values of New York City came under fire as Cruz was campaigning in New York as well. [10] This, combined with Trump's strong performances in the Northeast, especially Massachusetts, meant that Trump was considered a favorite with Kasich as his main challenger.

Opinion polling

Results

New York Republican primary, April 19, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump554,52259.21%89089
John Kasich231,16624.68%606
Ted Cruz136,08314.53%000
Blank & Void14,7561.58%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:936,527100.00%95095
Source: The Green Papers

Of the 62 counties in the state, Donald Trump won 61, with the one loss being his home county of New York County (Manhattan), where John Kasich won. Trump's strongest showings were in Richmond County (Staten Island), Nassau County, Queens, Suffolk County and Erie County. [31] John Kasich won Manhattan with a plurality and placed a strong second in upstate college areas such as Cortland, Syracuse and the Capital District area centered around Albany.

Ultimately, Trump was able to get the full slate of delegates in 22 out of 27 congressional districts, due to meeting or exceeding the 50% threshold in each. [32] Kasich won 2 delegates in the 12th district (Upper East Side Manhattan/Queens), and one each in the 10th (Jewish Manhattan/Brooklyn neighborhoods), 13th (Harlem), 20th (Albany), and 24th (Syracuse) districts. Ted Cruz won 14.5% of the vote but did not win any delegates.

Republican Primary Results by County

CountyCarson*%Cruz%Kasich%Trump%BVSTotalTurnoutMV%
Albany 1501.04%2,39016.58%5,02634.87%6,79341.13%5514,41441.25%12.26%
Allegany 1562.93%1,15921.74%1,17522.05%2,82753.04%135,33043.63%30.99%
Bronx 1271.75%1,16416.00%1,14815.78%4,73065.00%1087,27719.57%49.00%
Broome 2861.55%3,95321.45%5,13827.88%8,92348.42%13018,43045.32%20.54%
Cattaraugus 1131.74%1,29819.97%1,41921.83%3,63655.93%356,50138.22%31.10%
Cayuga 701.13%1,13618.38%1,94231.42%3,02448.92%96,18137.92%17.51%
Chautauqua 1771.85%2,01621.08%2,29423.99%5,02752.57%499,56338.35%28.58%
Chemung N/A1,82021.16%2,37227.58%4,20848.92%2018,60142.99%21.35%
Chenango 871.64%1,13321.31%1,39426.22%2,65950.02%435,31643.33%23.80%
Clinton N/A73915.77%1,38929.64%2,48753.06%724,68733.05%23.43%
Columbia 631.32%74415.62%1,27126.68%2,66255.88%244,76440.46%29.20%
Cortland N/A90022.66%1,27632.13%1,71043.06%853,97141.05%10.93%
Delaware 911.85%84617.19%1,14223.21%2,83157.53%114,92142.63%34.32%
Dutchess 2131.05%2,84013.94%4,40121.60%12,87263.18%4620,37240.07%41.58%
Erie N/A7,96412.93%13,13621.33%39,58964.27%90761,59642.04%42.95%
Essex 681.71%66416.72%1,27432.07%1,91848.29%483,97236.82%16.21%
Franklin 622.27%43315.83%76327.90%1,46053.38%172,73532.34%25.48%
Fulton 721.17%1,03616.85%1,55225.24%3,45656.20%346,15039.59%30.96%
Genesee N/A1,03216.54%1,28220.54%3,81561.13%1126,24140.16%40.59%
Greene N/A70516.39%83819.48%2,68962.52%694,30137.08%43.04%
Hamilton N/A21018.77%32629.13%56550.49%181,11944.89%21.36%
Herkimer 1071.47%1,04214.35%1,87725.85%4,19357.75%427,26141.32%31.90%
Jefferson 1211.28%1,23513.10%2,86030.34%5,19055.07%199,42541.69%24.72%
Kings (Brooklyn) 2551.01%4,87219.32%4,02415.96%15,92063.14%14425,21525.12%43.82%
Lewis 712.29%47615.36%89828.99%1,64353.03%103,09836.49%24.05%
Livingston 1161.62%1,32918.54%1,72424.05%3,95755.20%437,16943.60%31.15%
Madison N/A1,35819.87%2,21432.39%3,10845.47%1556,83543.72%13.08%
Monroe 6851.24%9,53717.23%16,87030.47%28,03450.63%23955,36543.98%20.16%
Montgomery 421.12%79321.15%86523.07%2,03954.39%103,74939.85%31.32%
Nassau N/A9,9029.54%22,72221.90%69,69267.17%1,437103,75332.35%45.27%
New York (Manhattan) 2540.93%3,58613.08%12,18144.43%11,19640.84%19827,41532.30%-3.59%
Niagara 2451.40%2,40613.78%3,32119.02%11,45065.56%4317,46541.26%46.54%
Oneida 2521.23%3,33516.33%5,39826.44%11,33255.50%10220,41943.10%29.06%
Onondaga 3070.91%6,07517.97%12,05535.67%15,15544.84%20733,79941.76%9.17%
Ontario 1801.60%2,06118.37%3,38030.13%5,55849.55%3911,21843.02%19.42%
Orange 2170.89%3,12012.75%4,37217.87%16,65968.07%10424,47235.94%50.21%
Orleans 611.45%72016.65%79918.95%2,64362.69%114,21640.68%43.74%
Oswego 1881.57%2,02616.88%3,28527.37%6,42353.52%8012,00238.57%26.15%
Otsego 961.78%1,03519.20%1,51628.12%2,71950.43%265,39241.92%22.31%
Putnam 610.70%98611.36%1,58718.28%6,02769.44%198,68040.96%51.15%
Queens 3421.08%4,49514.20%5,60117.69%20,95166.18%26831,65727.36%48.49%
Rensselaer 1001.10%1,57617.27%2,60028.48%4,75852.13%949,12838.70%23.64%
Richmond (Staten Island) 1200.45%2,0967.90%2,69010.14%21,52181.09%11426,54134.76%70.95%
Rockland 1040.70%2,36715.92%3,15821.24%9,21962.00%2114,86934.71%40.76%
St. Lawrence 1241.74%1,07415.04%2,03628.52%3,82553.58%807,13936.07%25.06%
Saratoga 2400.97%4,40417.85%8,27233.52%11,67347.30%8824,67741.91%13.78%
Schenectady N/A2,01020.93%2,94630.67%4,49646.81%1529,60441.32%16.14%
Schoharie N/A64022.74%63822.66%1,49753.18%402,81539.99%30.44%
Schuyler 422.21%40521.35%46124.30%97951.61%101,89740.85%27.31%
Seneca 561.85%52117.21%85428.20%1,58552.34%123,02840.86%24.14%
Steuben 2622.24%2,40120.50%2,75523.52%6,25253.37%4411,71442.09%29.85%
Suffolk 7350.73%9,0999.01%18,69418.52%72,35971.67%77100,96434.15%53.15%
Sullivan N/A53413.19%68716.98%2,74267.75%844,04733.08%50.78%
Tioga 1262.09%1,42923.68%1,54625.62%2,92648.48%86,03544.66%22.87%
Tompkins 1052.11%1,34226.96%1,69133.98%1,82136.59%184,97742.82%2.61%
Ulster 1421.41%1,33213.19%2,19721.75%6,38863.24%4310,10236.63%41.49%
Warren 1011.28%1,20615.28%2,77235.12%3,76147.64%547,89442.15%12.53%
Washington 70.13%1,04819.15%1,83933.61%2,45844.92%1205,47237.60%11.31%
Wayne N/A1,62719.99%2,01624.77%4,47254.94%1568,27138.12%30.17%
Westchester 3760.83%5,24511.59%13,59930.06%25,88057.20%14745,24735.31%27.14%
Wyoming N/A74917.40%72416.82%2,75263.94%794,30440.10%46.54%
Yates 431.56%42515.44%88432.11%1,38850.42%132,75343.29%18.31%
Total8,018*0.86%136,08314.53%231,16624.69%554,52259.22%6,636936,52536.35%34.53%

*Note: Blank, Void, and Scattering (BVS) votes include some votes for Former Candidate Ben Carson. Carson vote totals are unavailable in some county canvass returns. Only those available are posted. New York is a Closed primary state, meaning that the turnout is based on Active Republican Voters on April 1, 2016

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 29, 2016.
  2. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 29, 2016.
  3. ↑ "Michigan Republican Presidential Primary". americanresearchgroup.com. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  4. ↑ "Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan". Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Rubio suspends presidential campaign". POLITICO. March 15, 2016. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  6. ↑ Schleifer, Theodore (March 19, 2016). "Trump on Romney: 'Are you sure he's a Mormon?'". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  7. ↑ "Trump escalates challenge, calls Colorado GOP vote "a crooked deal"". The Denver Post. April 11, 2016. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  8. ↑ Conlin, Michelle; Gibson, Ginger. "Trump opponents buoyed after front-runner's Wisconsin loss". Reuters. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  9. ↑ Finnegan, Michael (April 20, 2016). "The cold, hard math of GOP delegate fight makes a big New York win crucial for Donald Trump". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  10. ↑ Diamond, Jeremy (April 7, 2016). "Trump hits Cruz over 'New York values' on Long Island". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  11. ↑ "Clinton and Trump Poised to Regain Momentum in the Empire State; NY Looks Safe For Dems In General" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved April 18, 2016.
  12. ↑ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker New York" (PDF). YouGov. Retrieved April 18, 2016.
  13. ↑ "New York Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved April 16, 2016.
  14. ↑ "Donald Trump Holds 29-Point Lead in NY: NBC4/WSJ/Marist Poll". Marist College. April 15, 2016. Retrieved April 16, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Bernie Narrows Gap; Hillary Still Leads By 10 Points; Trump Maintains Huge Lead, Kasich 2nd, Cruz 3rd" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  16. ↑ "BLACK VOTES MATTER FOR CLINTON IN NEW YORK, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; TRUMP SWEEPS ALL GROUPS AGAINST CRUZ OR KASICH" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
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  18. ↑ "New York Questionnaire" (PDF). Marist College. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 11, 2016. Retrieved April 12, 2016.
  19. ↑ "NY1/BARUCH COLLEGE NEW YORK STATE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY POLL" (PDF). Baruch College. Retrieved April 13, 2016.
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  21. ↑ "Clinton and Trump Lose Ground in NY, but Still in Control; Voters Weigh in on Open-Conventions" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved April 9, 2016.
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  23. ↑ "NEW YORK: TRUMP OVER 50 PERCENT" (PDF). Monmouth University. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 17, 2016. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
  24. ↑ "Close races in Wisconsin; Clinton and Trump ahead in New York". YouGov. Retrieved April 4, 2016.
  25. ↑ "Clinton, Trump Have Big Leads In New York Primaries, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Adopted Daughter Thumps Native Son, Edges Kasich". Quinnipiac University. Archived from the original on April 3, 2016. Retrieved March 31, 2016.
  26. ↑ "TRUMP LEADS BY 33% IN NEW YORK GOP PRIMARY". Liberty Opinion Research LLC. Archived from the original on April 1, 2016. Retrieved March 30, 2016.
  27. ↑ "New York Republican Presidential Primary". Optimus. Retrieved March 30, 2016.
  28. ↑ "EMERSON POLL: TRUMP, CLINTON TROUNCING THEIR RIVALS IN NEW YORK; IN GENERAL ELECTION, HILLARY AND BERNIE LEAD THE DONALD" (PDF). Emerson College Polling Society. Retrieved March 19, 2016.
  29. ↑ "Clinton & Trump Continue to Hold Commanding Leads in New York in Their Respective Party Primaries" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Hillary Leads Bernie By 21 Points Among NY Dems; Trump Has Strong Lead Over Rubio & Cruz with NY Reps" (PDF). Siena College. Retrieved February 9, 2016.
  31. ↑ "New York Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved April 23, 2016.
  32. ↑ "New York Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved April 23, 2016.
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