2014 Arizona gubernatorial election

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2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  →
Turnout47.52% Decrease2.svg8.13pp [1]
  Doug Ducey by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Fred DuVal by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
Nominee Doug Ducey Fred DuVal
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote805,062626,921
Percentage53.44%41.62%
2014 Arizona gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2014AZGovCD.svg
Ducey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
DuVal:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Jan Brewer
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a second consecutive full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote. This election marked the first time since 1994 that no female gubernatorial candidate was on the ballot and that a man was elected governor of Arizona. This was the first open seat gubernatorial election in the state since 2002.

Background

Candidates for Governor speaking at a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. From left to right: Al Melvin, Scott Smith, Christine Jones, Fred DuVal, Frank Riggs, Doug Ducey and Ken Bennett. Arizona 2014 gubernatorial candidates by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Candidates for Governor speaking at a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. From left to right: Al Melvin, Scott Smith, Christine Jones, Fred DuVal, Frank Riggs, Doug Ducey and Ken Bennett.

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term. [2] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election, [3] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge". [4]

Republican primary

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty" [5] [6] [7] [8] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined. [9]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Doug Ducey
Individuals
Organizations
  • Arizona Free Enterprise Club [40]
  • Arizona Right to Life [41]
Frank Riggs
Individuals
Organizations
  • Arizonans Against Common Core [44]
Scott Smith
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Bennett		Doug
Ducey		Christine
Jones		Al
Melvin		John
Molina		Frank
Riggs		Scott
Smith		Andrew
Thomas		Undecided
Magellan Strategies August 17–21, 20141,281± 2.74%12%32%18%——2%21%8%7%
Harper Polling August 19–20, 2014812± 3.44%14%32%16%——2%19%7%10%
Remington August 17–19, 2014502± 4.37%10%33%18%——1%22%11%5%
Magellan Strategies August 15–18, 20141,322± ?12%31%17%——3%22%8%7%
Magellan Strategies August 12–15, 20141,300± ?10%31%16%——3%23%7%10%
Magellan Strategies August 5–7, 20141,289± 2.73%11%29%13%——4%22%9%12%
Magellan Strategies July 28–31, 20141,644± ?12%23%13%——5%21%10%16%
Undisclosed Late July 2014 ?± ?10%23%20%——2%15%9%21%
Harper Polling July 16–17, 2014885± 3.29%12%23%21%——1%13%7%22%
Behavior Research Center July 10–17, 2014459± 4.7%10%13%17%——2%8%0%50%
Gravis Marketing July 14, 2014691± 4%7%28%19%——1%14%8%24%
Highground July 10–12, 2014400± 4.9%3.5%17.3%15.3%——1.5%9.8%3%49.8%
Magellan Strategies July 9–10, 2014593± 4.02%11%26%22%——2%14%6%19%
Harper Polling June 25–26, 2014791± 3.48%12%33%15%——2%14%3%22%
McLaughlin & Associates June 10, 2014400± 3.48%8%22.8%6.2%———6.5%—56.5%
Magellan Strategies June 3–4, 2014630± 3.9%12%28%12%2%—2%16%5%23%
Magellan Strategies May 13–14, 2014760± 3.6%12.7%27.3%11.9%1.3%0.2%0.7%11.5%5.6%28.8%
Undisclosed April 29, 20141,367± 3.5%7%4%10%———9%5%65%
Magellan Strategies April 8–9, 2014 ?± ?15%9%14%——1%6%6%45%
Public Policy Polling Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014403± 4.9%20%6%16%1%1%1%12%9%34%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%6%2%8%1%——7%7%69%
Susquehanna Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013245± ?20%8%4%2%——6%4%56%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Ducey - 50-60% Ducey - 40-50% Ducey - 30-40% Jones - 30-40% 2014 AZ GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Ducey –50–60%
  Ducey –40–50%
  Ducey –30–40%
  Jones –30–40%
Republican primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Doug Ducey 200,607 37
Republican Scott Smith119,10722
Republican Christine Jones89,92217
Republican Ken Bennett62,01011
Republican Andrew Thomas43,8228
Republican Frank Riggs24,1685
Republican Write-in1,804nil
Total votes541,440 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Fred DuVal

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ron
Cavanaugh		Fred
DuVal		Undecided
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 ?± ?12%18%72%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Chad
Campbell		Fred
DuVal		Undecided
Myers Research May 22–June 13, 2012 ?± ?31%18%51%

Results

Democratic primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Fred DuVal 271,276 97
Democratic Write-in8,5783
Total votes279,854 100

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Barry Hess 3,979 75
Libertarian Write-in1,34525
Total votes5,324 100
Americans Elect primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Americans Elect John Lewis Mealer 722 95
Americans Elect Write-in385
Total votes760 100

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [69] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [70] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [71] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [72] Lean RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Doug
Ducey (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20142,621± 4%50%40%1%9%
The Polling Company October 20–22, 2014601± 4%42%35%7% [other 1] 15%
Rasmussen Reports October 14–16, 20141,056± 3%47%42%3%7%
Tarrance Group October 13–16, 2014500± 4.5%43%36%5% [other 1] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates October 12–14, 2014500± 4.5%37%36%5% [other 2] 22%
Adrian Gray Consulting October 8–9, 2014600± 4%43%35%8% [other 3] 14%
Moore Information October 7–8, 2014400± ~4.9%36%39%4% [other 4] 21%
The Polling Company October 6–8, 2014600± 4%46%37%5% [other 1] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20142,808± 3%50%39%2%9%
Keating Research September 17–19, 2014600± 4%41%39%7% [other 1] 13%
Tarrance Group September 15–17, 2014505± 4.5%44%38%7% [other 5] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20143,289± 3%39%38%15%9%
Rasmussen Reports August 27–28, 2014850± 3%40%40%—20%
Public Policy Polling August 24–25, 2014588± 4%35%35%12% [other 1] 18%
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%35%36%—29%
Undisclosed February 2014500± ?32%32%6% [other 1] 30%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%21%23%—56%
Susquehanna November 27–December 4, 2013600± 4%36%33%—31%
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Barry Hess (L)
  2. ↑ Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  3. ↑ Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  4. ↑ Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  5. ↑ Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
Hypothetical polling
With Bennett
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Bennett (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%37%33%—30%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%26%22%—52%
Susquehanna November 27–December 4, 2013600± 4%38%33%—28%
With Jones
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Christine
Jones (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20143,778± ?45%34%13%7%
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%33%37%—30%
With Melvin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Al
Melvin (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%32%37%—31%
With Molina
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Molina (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%32%35%—33%
With Riggs
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Frank
Riggs (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%32%36%—31%
With Smith
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Smith (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%39%33%—28%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%20%23%—57%
With Thomas
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Andrew
Thomas (R)		Fred
DuVal (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%35%40%—25%

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014 [73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Doug Ducey 805,062 53.4 -0.9
Democratic Fred DuVal 626,92141.6-0.8
Libertarian Barry Hess57,3373.8+1.6
Americans Elect John Lewis Mealer15,4321.0N/A
NoneJ. Johnson (write-in)1,5200.1N/A
Independent Brian Bailey (write-in)50nilN/A
Republican Alice Novoa (write-in)43nilN/A
Independent Cary Dolego (write-in)29nilN/A
NoneCurtis Woolsey (write-in)15nilN/A
Independent Diane-Elizabeth R.R. Kennedy (write-in)7nilN/A
Total votes1,506,416100N/A
Republican hold
By county
County [74] Doug Ducey
Republican 		Fred DuVal
Democratic 		Barry Hess
Libertarian 		John L. Mealer
Americans Elect 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Apache 5,87128.5213,56265.886843.324582.2290.04-7,691-37.3620,584
Cochise 21,66259.4112,70934.851,6114.414571.25220.068,95324.5636,461
Coconino 14,52839.6420,21255.151,6504.504961.35530.01-5,684-15.5136,645
Gila 9,61060.675,25333.167695.342021.2750.034,35727.5115,839
Graham 4,98568.601,91926.412693.70901.2330.043,06642.197,266
Greenlee 99551.8279241.251045.41291.5110.0520310.571,920
La Paz 2,38868.5484624.281955.59531.5220.051,54244.263,484
Maricopa 469,20054.69346,87940.4332,4663.788,1670.951,0660.01122,32114.26857,778
Mohave 33,15071.0210,66222.842,2424.806041.29170.0322,48848.1846,675
Navajo 13,56949.6112,12844.3410803.945532.02190.061,4415.2727,349
Pima 122,96645.43136,30250.358,8993.282,3120.851910.07-13,336-4.92270,670
Pinal 41,31357.8026,13136.562,9664.148321.162310.3215,18221.2471,473
Santa Cruz 3,17534.055,81962.402392.56900.9610.01-2,644-28.359,324
Yavapai 46,80663.1123,21031.293,2874.438201.10310.0423,59631.8274,154
Yuma 14,84456.0110,49739.618763.302691.01130.044,34716.4026,499
Totals805,06253.44626,92141.6157,3373.8015,4321.021,6640.11178,14111.831,506,416

Results by congressional districts

Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [75]

DistrictDuValDuceyRepresentative
1st 46.0%48.87% Ann Kirkpatrick
2nd 46.95%48.73% Martha McSally
3rd 56.31%38.77% Raúl Grijalva
4th 27.43%66.84% Paul Gosar
5th 32.64%62.83% Matt Salmon
6th 37.56%58.27% David Schweikert
7th 65.18%29.29% Ruben Gallego
8th 33.64%61.2% Trent Franks
9th 49.06%46.3% Kyrsten Sinema

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References

  1. ↑ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State" . Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Report: Jan Brewer may seek 3rd term as Arizona governor". Politico . November 12, 2012. Retrieved November 13, 2012.
  3. ↑ "Brewer says it's hard to let go of governing as she decides whether to seek re-election". AZ Central. February 24, 2014. Retrieved March 3, 2014.
  4. 1 2 "Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer won't seek another term in office". AZ Central. March 12, 2014. Retrieved March 13, 2014.
  5. ↑ Samantha Lachman (August 6, 2014). "GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Calls Her Opponent A 'Misogynistic Jerk'". The Huffington Post. Retrieved September 18, 2014.
  6. ↑ Dan Nowicki (August 28, 2014). "Analysis of primary election results: Why they won". AZ Central. Retrieved September 18, 2014.
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  8. ↑ "Primary elections underway in Florida, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Vermont". CBS News. August 26, 2014. Retrieved September 18, 2014.
  9. ↑ "Governor's primary shatters spending records". AZ Central. August 30, 2014. Retrieved September 18, 2014.
  10. ↑ "Ken Bennett says he'll run for governor". Associated Press. September 19, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  11. ↑ "State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run". East Valley Tribune. July 23, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  12. 1 2 3 4 DeLaney, Melissa (February 19, 2014). "Doug Ducey Will Run for Arizona Governor in 2014". Reuters. Archived from the original on April 19, 2014. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  13. ↑ Rau, Alia Beard (August 9, 2013). "Former Go Daddy exec enters GOP governor race". AZCentral.com. Retrieved August 27, 2013.
  14. ↑ Fischer, Howard (January 23, 2014). "Former California congressman joins GOP race for AZ governor". Arizona Daily Star . Retrieved January 23, 2014.
  15. ↑ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne; Nelson, Gary (January 9, 2014). "Mesa Mayor Smith will quit to run for governor". AZCentral. Retrieved January 9, 2014.
  16. ↑ Rau, Alia Beard (April 26, 2013). "Disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Thomas to run for governor". AZCentral.com. Retrieved April 29, 2013.
  17. ↑ Pitzl, Mary Jo (September 20, 2013). "Hugh Hallman withdraws from Ariz. governor's race". AZCentral.com. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  18. ↑ Fischer, Howard (April 23, 2013). "Sen. Al Melvin announces run for governor". Verde News. Archived from the original on May 24, 2013. Retrieved April 24, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Arizona Sen. Al Melvin drops out of governor's race". KTAR. Associated Press. June 23, 2014. Archived from the original on June 25, 2014. Retrieved June 23, 2014.
  20. ↑ Duda, Jeremy (October 21, 2013). "Against the odds". Arizona Capitol Times . Retrieved January 23, 2014.
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  22. ↑ Thomas, Jennifer (January 22, 2014). "Arpaio considering run for governor". KTVK . Archived from the original on March 4, 2014. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  23. ↑ "Sheriff Arpaio says he won't run for governor". AZ Central. May 22, 2014. Retrieved May 26, 2014.
  24. ↑ "Burns won't seek 2nd term on Corporation Commission". AZ Central. April 19, 2013. Retrieved May 26, 2014.
  25. ↑ Duda, Jeremy (August 6, 2013). "Cardon running for secretary of state". Arizona Capitol Times . Retrieved September 5, 2013.
  26. 1 2 3 Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (July 25, 2013). "All eyes on 2014 race for governor". AZCentral. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
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  29. ↑ "McSally says she's being recruited for Ariz. governor, senate runs". AZCentral.com. April 23, 2013. Retrieved April 25, 2013.
  30. ↑ "Martha McSally Files Paperwork for Rematch #AZ02". Roll Call. July 3, 2013. Retrieved July 8, 2013.
  31. ↑ "Steven Seagal mulls run for Arizona Governor". ABC15. January 3, 2014. Archived from the original on January 5, 2014. Retrieved January 4, 2013.
  32. ↑ Prezelski, Tom (January 7, 2014). "Steven Seagal is not running for governor, so stop talking about it". Tucson Sentinel. Retrieved February 26, 2013.
  33. ↑ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (August 1, 2014). "Arpaio endorses GOP governor candidate Doug Ducey". AZ Central. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
  34. ↑ Ducey, Doug (January 14, 2014). "Proud to be endorsed by Steve Chucri!". Facebook. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  35. ↑ Sunnucks, Mike (April 17, 2014). "Jerry Colangelo backs Doug Ducey for Arizona Governor". Phoenix Business Journal. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  36. 1 2 "News Release: Congressman Trent Franks & Phoenix City Councilman Sal DiCiccio Endorse Ducey". Arizona Progress & Gazette. March 11, 2014. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  37. ↑ "Barry Goldwater, Jr. Endorses Doug Ducey for Arizona Governor". Doug Ducey for Governor. March 27, 2014. Archived from the original on April 20, 2014. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
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  39. ↑ "Former Gov. Fife Symington Endorses Doug Ducey for Arizona Governor". Doug Ducey for Governor. March 6, 2014. Archived from the original on April 20, 2014. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  40. ↑ Ducey, Doug (March 26, 2014). "AZ Free Enterprise Club PAC Endorses Ducey For Governor". Facebook. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  41. ↑ Ducey, Doug (April 10, 2014). "Arizona Right to Life PAC Endorses Ducey For Governor". Facebook. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  42. ↑ "I'm Endorsing Frank Riggs for Governor, by Russell Pearce". Gilbert Watch. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
  43. ↑ "Rick Santorum to Endorse Frank Riggs for Governor in Arizona". Arizona Progress & Gazette. April 4, 2014. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  44. ↑ Riggs, Frank (April 16, 2014). "Honored to receive the endorsement of Arizonans Against CommonCore!". Twitter. Retrieved April 19, 2014.
  45. ↑ "Brewer endorses Scott Smith for governor". Arizona Republic. August 8, 2014. Retrieved August 8, 2014.
  46. 1 2 3 4 "Unofficial Results Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 2, 2014. Retrieved August 28, 2014.
  47. ↑ "Fred DuVal first Arizona Democrat to announce run for governor". Ktar.com. April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 25, 2013.
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  49. ↑ "Campbell says he won't run for governor in 2014". The Arizona Republic. September 17, 2013. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  50. ↑ Resnik, Brahm (March 17, 2013). "Richard Carmona will not run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved March 18, 2013.
  51. ↑ "Neil Guiliano – "The Campaign Within"". KJZZ.org. June 13, 2012. Retrieved November 19, 2012.
  52. ↑ "Supporters « Fred DuVal 2014". Archived from the original on May 3, 2013. Retrieved June 5, 2013.
  53. ↑ Lemons, Stephen (December 19, 2012). "Terry Goddard Wants to Be AG Again? Puh-lease". Blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013.
  54. ↑ Pitzl, Mary Jo (October 29, 2013). "Sen. Reagan enters race for secretary of state post". Arizona Central. Retrieved November 1, 2013.
  55. ↑ star, Carmen Duarte arizona daily. "Ex-'boy mayor' of Nogales takes vital border slot". Arizona Daily Star.
  56. ↑ "University of California – UC Newsroom | Regents appoint UC's first woman president". Universityofcalifornia.edu. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013.
  57. ↑ Hendley, Matthew (February 26, 2013). "Felecia Rotellini Making Another Run at Attorney General". Phoenix New Times . Retrieved March 3, 2013.
  58. ↑ Gardiner, Dustin (January 28, 2013). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton is raising the office's profile". Arizona Central. Retrieved November 1, 2013.
  59. 1 2 3 Riester. "Former Arizona Governors Babbitt, Mofford and Castro Endorse Fred DuVal – Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Archived from the original on September 26, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013.
  60. 1 2 3 Riester. "Three of Arizona's Former Congress Members Join Fred DuVal – Fred DuVal 2014". Fred2014.com. Archived from the original on September 26, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013.
  61. 1 2 Lavender, Paige (March 27, 2014). "Gabrielle Giffords And Mark Kelly Endorse Fred DuVal In Arizona Governor's Race". The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 27, 2014.
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  69. ↑ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
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