2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election

Last updated

2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election
Flag of Arkansas.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) 2018  
  Asa Hutchinson crop (3x4b).jpg Mike Ross Official (cropped 2) (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Asa Hutchinson Mike Ross
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote470,429352,115
Percentage55.4%41.5%

2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Hutchinson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Ross:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

Governor before election

Mike Beebe
Democratic

Elected Governor

Asa Hutchinson
Republican

The 2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arkansas, concurrently with the election to Arkansas's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was the last time the Arkansas Governor’s changed partisan control.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Governor Mike Beebe was ineligible to run for re-election due to term limits established by the Arkansas Constitution. Arkansas is one of eight states that limits its Governors to two terms for life. [1] Democrats nominated former U.S. Representative Mike Ross and Republicans nominated former DEA Administrator, former U.S. Representative and 2006 Arkansas gubernatorial nominee Asa Hutchinson.

Hutchinson won the general election by the largest margin recorded for a Republican in an open-seat gubernatorial race since Reconstruction. The race was called for Hutchinson roughly half an hour after the polls closed, his victory gave Republicans complete control of state government for the first time since 1874.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Lynette "Doc" Bryant, activist [3]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Ross

National political figures

Arkansas political figures

Business leaders

  • Abraham Carpenter Jr., owner and operator of Carpenter's Produce [19]
  • Jim Gaston, owner of Gaston's White River Resort, former Arkansas Business Executive of the Year and emeritus member of the Arkansas Parks & Tourism Commission [19]

Organizations

  • Arkansas Professional Fire Fighters Association [19]
  • Arkansas Timber Producers Association [19]
  • Central South Carpenters Regional Council [19]
  • Laborers International Union of North America [19]
  • Laborers Local 107 [19]
  • Laborers Local 1282 [19]
  • Southern States Millwright Regional Council [19]
  • Southwest Laborers District Council [19]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Halter
Mike
Ross
Undecided
Clark Research July 23–27, 2013370± 5%26%40%34%

Results

Results by county:
Ross
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>90%
80-90%
70-80% Arkansas gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
Ross
  •   >90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mike Ross 129,437 84.41
Democratic Lynette "Doc" Bryant23,90615.59
Total votes153,343 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Curtis Coleman

National politicians

Elected legislators

Local elected leaders

Organizations

  • Miller County Patriots [46]

Organization leaders

  • Bishop Robert E. Smith Sr., founder of Total Outreach for Christ Ministries, Inc. and Word of Outreach Christian Center [47]
  • Timothy Stephenson, founder of the EAST Initiative [48]
Asa Hutchinson

Federal legislators

State legislators

Local elected officials

  • Jerry Taylor, Democratic former state senator, state representative, and mayor of Pine Bluff [51]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Curtis
Coleman
Asa
Hutchinson
Undecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 29, 20141,516± 2.5%20%70%10%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014342± 5.3%23%62%15%

Results

Results by county:
Hutchinson
80-90%
70-80%
60-70%
50-60%
Coleman
50-60% Arkansas gubernatorial Republican primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
Hutchinson
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Coleman
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Asa Hutchinson 130,752 72.95
Republican Curtis Coleman48,47327.05
Total votes179,225 100.00

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [54] Lean R (flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] Likely R (flip)November 3, 2014
Inside Elections [56] Lean R (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [57] Lean R (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Ross (D)
Asa
Hutchinson (R)
OtherUndecided
Opinion Research Associates October 30–November 1, 2014400± 5%43%39%5% [58] 14%
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 20141,092± 3%41%51%4% [59] 4%
44%53%3%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014967± 3%43%50%3%4%
Issues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014568± 4.1%39%50%11%
Opinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014401± 5%44%42%2% [60] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,567± 4%38%47%0%15%
NBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014621± 3.9%44%47%4% [61] 5%
971± 3.1%44%43%5% [62] 8%
Hendrix Poll October 15–16, 20142,075± 2.2%41%49%5%6%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014940± 3%47%49%1%3%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014707± 3.5%37%46%5% [63] 12%
Opinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014400± 5%45%41%3%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20141,991± 2%38%49%1%12%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014750± 4%42%46%4%8%
Suffolk Archived September 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine September 20–23, 2014500± 4.4%41%43%5% [64] 11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 20141,453± 2.6%38%44%5% [64] 13%
40%46%14%
Gravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014902± 4%42%46%2% [65] 10%
Answers Unlimited September 7–9, 2014600± 3.5%44%44%4% [59] 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20141,572± 3%38%45%1%15%
NBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014639 LV± 3.9%39%48%6% [66] 7%
1,068 RV± 3%39%46%7% [67] 8%
Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014750± 4%46%44%3%7%
Opinion Research Associates August 6–14, 2014414± 4.9%44%44%3% [68] 9%
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 20141,066± 3%38%43%7% [69] 12%
40%46%14%
Talk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 20141,780± 2.3%41%46%6% [70] 7.5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,616± 3.5%45%48%2%4%
Gravis Marketing July 7–8, 2014987± 3%46%49%5% [65]
Public Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014500± 4.39%42%48%10%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014750± 4%41%48%4%6%
NBC News/Marist April 30–May 4, 2014876± 3.3%42%49%2%7%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014840± 3.4%38%46%16%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014857± ?40%41%4%16%
Opinion Research Associates April 1–8, 2014400± 5%45%39%17%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 20141,068± 3%44%43%5% [64] 8%
Impact Management Group February 10, 20141,202± 2.83%42%42%17%
Rasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014500± 4.5%44%41%3%12%
Public Policy Polling December 13–15, 20131,004± 3.1%43%44%14%
Impact Management Group October 24, 2013911± 3.2%37%40%23%
University of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013800± 3.5%30%32%38%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013603± 4.%37%41%22%
Harper Polling August 4–5, 2013587± 4.04%38%46%16%
Talk Business/Hendrix College February 20, 2013675± 3.8%38%43%19%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lynette
Bryant (D)
Asa
Hutchinson (R)
OtherUndecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 20141,068± 3%27.5%48%8% [71] 17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Bill
Halter (D)
Asa
Hutchinson (R)
OtherUndecided
Talk Business/Hendrix College February 20, 2013675± 3.8%31%47%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dustin
McDaniel (D)
Asa
Hutchinson (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 10–13, 2013600± 4.0%33%46%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mike
Ross (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014840± 3.4%43%33%24%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 20141,068± 3%48%30%7% [72] 15%

Results

Arkansas gubernatorial election, 2014 [73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Asa Hutchinson 470,429 55.44% +21.81%
Democratic Mike Ross 352,11541.49%-22.93%
Libertarian Frank Gilbert16,3191.92%N/A
Green Josh Drake9,7291.15%-0.71%
Total votes848,592 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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  58. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 2%
  59. 1 2 Josh Drake (G) 2%, Frank Gilbert (L) 2%
  60. Josh Drake (G) 1%, Frank Gilbert (L) 2%
  61. Josh Drake (G) 2%, Frank Gilbert (L) 2%, Other <1%
  62. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 2%, Other <1%
  63. Josh Drake (G) 1%, Frank Gilbert (L) 3%, Other 1%
  64. 1 2 3 Josh Drake (G) 2%, Frank Gilbert (L) 3%
  65. 1 2 Frank Gilbert (L)
  66. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 3%, Other <1%
  67. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 4%, Other <1%
  68. Josh Drake (G) 2%, Frank Gilbert (L) 1%
  69. Josh Drake (G) 4%, Frank Gilbert (L) 3%
  70. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 3%
  71. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 5%
  72. Josh Drake (G) 3%, Frank Gilbert (L) 4%
  73. "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
Official campaign websites (archived)