2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  →
Turnout46.27%
  Mitch McConnell official portrait 112th Congress.jpg Alison Lundergan Grimes by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Alison Lundergan Grimes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote806,787584,698
Percentage56.19%40.72%
2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
2014 Kentucky Senate election by congressional district.svg
2014 Kentucky Senate election by state senate district.svg
2014 Kentucky Senate election by State House District.svg
McConnell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Grimes:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, ran for re-election to a sixth term. [1] He faced Democratic nominee and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Libertarian nominee David Patterson in the general election.

The race was initially seen as a possible pickup opportunity for Democrats, largely due to McConnell's unpopularity among Kentucky voters. [2] By election day, however, both The Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report considered Republicans to be favored. [3] [4] McConnell ultimately defeated Grimes by a landslide margin [5] of 56.2% to 40.7%.

Republican primary

Immediately after a secret recording of Mitch McConnell and his campaign staff was released to Mother Jones , McConnell expressed concerns about what he saw as a threat from the left. David Adams, a Kentucky Tea Party activist who was seeking a Republican opponent to McConnell, told The New York Times that McConnell's fears about "threats from the left" were misplaced. Adams said: "It's going to come from the right. The fact that he's coming unglued about this thing should make clear to observers that he may not be ready for the challenge that lies ahead." [6]

McConnell won the primary with 60.2% of the vote. [7] According to analysis by the University of Minnesota, this is the lowest voter support for a Kentucky U.S. Senator in a primary by either party since 1938. [8]

Candidates

Candidate Matt Bevin Matt Bevin by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Matt Bevin

Declared

Withdrew

  • Gurley L. Martin, World War II veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 [15] [16]

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Bevin
Public figures
Organizations
Mitch McConnell
Elected officials
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Elected officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		Matt
Bevin		Brad
Copas		Chris
Payne		Shawna
Sterling		Undecided
Wenzel Strategies July 23–24, 2013302± 5.6%58.9%19.9%———21.2%
Voter/Consumer Research ^ Archived October 29, 2013, at the Wayback Machine August 18–20, 2013600± 4%68%21%———8%
Lake Research Partners October 24–29, 2013603± 4%50%17%———33%
Public Policy Polling December 12–15, 2013540± 4.2%53%26%———21%
Gravis Marketing Archived January 16, 2014, at the Wayback Machine January 2, 2014683± 4%53%31%———16%
Bluegrass Poll Archived February 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine January 30 – February 4, 2014404± 4.9%55%29%———15%
Wenzel Strategies February 8–11, 2014377± 5.03%58.5%17.4%———24.1%
Public Opinion Strategies February 24–26, 2014400± 4.9%61%23%———16%
Gravis Marketing April 15–17, 2014638± 4%51%34%———15%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 6, 2014760± 3.6%55%22%1%3%2%17%
Gravis Marketing May 12, 2014629± 4%48%34%———18%
Bluegrass Poll May 14–16, 2014605± 4%55%35%1%1%3%5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		Someone more
conservative		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012395± 4.9%50%35%15%
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 2013320± 5.5%46%32%22%
Public Policy Polling December 12–15, 2013540± 4.2%39%42%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		John
Calipari		Undecided
Gravis Marketing Archived January 16, 2014, at the Wayback Machine January 2, 2014683± 4%59%26%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell		Thomas
Massie		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012395± 4.9%66%18%16%
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 2013320± 5.5%56%18%27%

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McConnell 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Bevin 40-50% 2014 Kentucky Senate Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  McConnell
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Bevin
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 213,753 60.19%
Republican Matt Bevin125,78735.42%
Republican Shawna Sterling7,2142.03%
Republican Chris Payne5,3381.51%
Republican Brad Copas3,0240.85%
Total votes355,116 100.00%

Democratic primary

In late 2012 and early 2013, media speculation focused on the possibility of a challenge to incumbent Mitch McConnell from actress and Tennessee resident Ashley Judd, [50] who was raised in Kentucky. Judd later announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. On April 9, Mother Jones magazine released a tape of a private meeting between McConnell and, allegedly, his aides reviewing opposition research and tactics to use against Judd. At the February strategy session, McConnell referred to the early stages of his re-election bid as the "Whac-A-Mole period of the campaign," and he and aides discussed attacking Judd's religious views as well as her struggle with depression. [51] [52]

Alison Lundergan Grimes, the sitting secretary of state, entered the primary race with the encouragement of former president Bill Clinton, a friend of Grimes's father, former Kentucky politician Jerry Lundergan. [53] On May 20, 2014, she won the Democratic primary with 77% of the vote. [54] [55] Her father's involvement in the campaign was noted as a factor in the race because of his personal political history and fundraising connections. [56] [57]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Alison Lundergan Grimes
Elected officials
Newspapers
Public figures
Organizations

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jerry
Abramson		Matthew
Barzun		Jack
Conway		Adam
Edelen		Greg
Fischer		Alison Lundergan
Grimes		Ashley
Judd		John
Yarmuth		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012585± 4.1%16%1%15%2%5%9%29%9%—15%

Results

Results by county Grimes 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2014 Kentucky Senate Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Grimes
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Alison Lundergan Grimes 307,821 76.47%
Democratic Greg Leichty32,6028.10%
Democratic Burrel Farnsley32,3108.03%
Democratic Tom Recktenwald29,7917.40%
Total votes402,524 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • David Patterson, police officer [103]

Results

Patterson won the Libertarian primary on March 1, 2014. While he ran unopposed, all Libertarian Party candidates must defeat "none of the above" (NOTA) in the primary operated by the Libertarian Party of Kentucky. [104] He became an official ballot-listed candidate on August 11 after submitting over 9,100 signatures. [105]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [3] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [111] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [112] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [113] Lean RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Alison
Lundergan
Grimes (D)		David
Patterson (L)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%40%——13%
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 20131,052± 3%45%41%——14%
Public Policy Polling May 23–24, 2013556± 4.2%45%45%——10%
Wenzel Strategies June 1–2, 2013623± 3.9%47%40%——14%
Public Policy Polling July 19–21, 20131,210± 2.8%44%45%——11%
Wenzel Strategies July 23–24, 2013624± 3.9%48%40%——12%
Lake Research Partners August 5–15, 20135,000± 1.4%40%46%——14%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 20131,193± 2.8%43%45%——12%
Lake Research Partners October 24–29, 2013603± 4%37%37%—6%19%
DFM Research October 21–29, 2013600± 4%41%40%——19%
Public Policy Polling December 12–15, 20131,509± 2.5%43%42%——15%
Gravis Marketing January 2, 20141,153± 4%42%37%—8% [114] 13%
Public Policy Polling January 24–26, 2014882± ?%45%44%——11%
Rasmussen Reports January 29–30, 2014500± 4.5%42%42%—6%10%
Bluegrass Poll Archived February 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine January 30 – February 4, 20141,082± 3%42%46%——12%
Wenzel Strategies February 8–11, 20141,002± 3.06%43%42%——15%
Public Policy Polling April 1–2, 2014663± 4%44%45%——11%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014891± ?44%43%—3%11%
Gravis Marketing April 15–17, 20141,359± 3%43%36%—9% [114] 12%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014500± 4.4%46%45%——9%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 6, 20142,353± 2%46%45%—1%8%
Bluegrass Poll May 14–16, 20141,782± 2.1%42%43%4%4% [114] 7%
Wenzel Strategies May 23–24, 2014608± 3.95%47%44%——8%
Rasmussen Reports May 28–29, 2014750± 4%48%41%—5%7%
Magellan Strategies Archived June 16, 2014, at the Wayback Machine June 4–5, 2014808± 3.45%46%49%——5%
Public Policy Polling June 20–22, 2014682± 3.8%46%48%——6%
Gravis Marketing July 17–20, 20141,054± 3%45%45%——10%
SurveyUSA Archived August 8, 2014, at the Wayback Machine July 18–23, 2014604± 4.1%41%39%7%—13%
47%45%——8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,546± 4.2%49%45%—2%4%
Wenzel Strategies August 6, 2014 ?± ?47%44%4%—5%
48%44%——8%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%44%40%7%—9%
47%42%——11%
Bluegrass Poll Archived February 2, 2016, at the Wayback Machine August 25–27, 2014569± 4.2%46%42%5%—8%
CNN/ORC August 28 – September 1, 2014671± 4%50%46%—1%3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 20142,130± 3%47%42%—2%9%
Rasmussen Reports September 1–2, 2014750± 4%46%41%—7%6%
Public Opinion Strategies September 1–3, 2014600 LV± 4%47%42%4%—7%
NBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014691 LV± 3.7%47%39%8%<1%6%
1,184 RV± 2.8%45%38%9%<1%8%
Magellan Strategies September 4–7, 2014742 LV± 3.6%50%42%6%—2%
Mellman Group* September 4–7, 2014800 LV± 3.5%42%43%——15%
Ipsos September 8–12, 2014944 LV± 3.6%46%42%—5%6%
1,755 RV± 2.7%36%38%—9%17%
ccAdvertising September 9–16, 20142,282± ?42%33%——25%
Gravis Marketing September 13–16, 2014839± 3%51%41%——8%
Mellman Group* September 19–27, 20141,800± 2.3%40%42%3%—16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20141,689± 3%47%41%2%1%9%
Bluegrass Poll September 29 – October 2, 2014632± 4%44%46%3%—7%
Fox News October 4–7, 20147063.5%45%41%3%3%8%
Gravis Marketing October 11–12, 20141,020± 3%50%47%——3%
Rasmussen Reports October 15–16, 20141,000± 3%52%44%2%—2%
WKU/Big Red Poll October 6–19, 2014 ? LV± ?%45%42%5%—8%
601 RV± 4%45%40%5%—9%
SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll October 15–19, 2014655± 3.9%44%43%5%—8%
Voter Consumer Research^ October 16–19, 2014815± 3.5%49%41%3%—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,502± 4%45%39%2%0%14%
Public Opinion Strategies October 25–27, 2014600± 4%50%43%4%0%3%
SurveyUSA/Bluegrass Poll October 26–30, 2014597± 4.1%48%43%3%—6%
Public Policy Polling October 26–30, 2014556 LV± 4.2%50%41%5%<1%3%
894 RV± 3.3%49%39%6%<1%6%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014556± 4.2%50%41%5%<1%3%
894± 3.3%49%39%6%<1%6%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 20141,503± 2.5%50%42%3%—5%
53%44%——4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Matt
Bevin (R)		Alison Lundergan
Grimes (D)		David
Patterson (L)		OtherUndecided
Wenzel Strategies July 23–24, 2013624± 3.9%35%30%——36%
Lake Research Partners October 24–29, 2013603± 4%20%38%——42%
Public Policy Polling December 12–15, 20131,509± 2.5%39%38%——24%
Bluegrass Poll Archived February 25, 2014, at the Wayback Machine January 30 – February 4, 20141,082± 3%38%43%——19%
Wenzel Strategies February 8–11, 20141,002± 3.06%36%39%——25%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014891± ?35%41%—4%19%
Gravis Marketing April 15–17, 20141,359± 3%32%37%—7%25%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 6, 20142,353± 2%37%46%—1%15%
Bluegrass Poll May 14–16, 20141,782± 2.1%38%41%5%4% [114] 12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Jerry
Abramson (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%43%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Matthew
Barzun (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%48%37%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Ben
Chandler (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 20131,052± 3%46%41%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Jack
Conway (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%43%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Adam
Edelen (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%48%36%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Greg
Fischer (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%46%41%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Tom
FitzGerald (D)		Undecided
Wenzel Strategies June 1–2, 2013623± 3.9%47%30%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Heather
French
Henry (D)		Undecided
Wenzel Strategies June 1–2, 2013623± 3.9%46%40%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Ashley
Judd (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%47%43%10%
Harper Polling February 11–12, 2013850±3.36%49%40%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		Ed
Marksberry (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 5–7, 20131,052± 3%46%35%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mitch
McConnell (R)		John
Yarmuth (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 20121,266± 2.8%48%38%14%

Results

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2014 [115]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 806,787 56.19% +3.22%
Democratic Alison Lundergan Grimes 584,69840.72%-6.31%
Libertarian David M. Patterson44,2403.08%N/A
n/a Write-ins1430.01%N/A
Total votes1,453,868 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McConnell won 5 of 6 congressional districts. [116]

DistrictMcConnellGrimesRepresentative
1st 61.73%35.14% Ed Whitfield
2nd 58.83%37.83% Brett Guthrie
3rd 41.11%56.94% John Yarmuth
4th 61.08%35.6% Thomas Massie
5th 65.24%31.42% Hal Rogers
6th 50.55%46.0% Andy Barr

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Raju, Manu (December 20, 2010). "Mitch McConnell plans power plays against Democrats". Politico . Retrieved May 19, 2011.
  2. ↑ Preston, Mark (September 3, 2014). "CNN Poll: McConnell holds slim edge in biggest Senate race of 2014". CNN. Retrieved September 4, 2014.
  3. 1 2 "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  4. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. September 4, 2014. Archived from the original on September 4, 2014. Retrieved September 4, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Mitch McConnell Wins Re-Election, A.P. Says, as Republicans Make Election Day Push". The New York Times. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 4, 2014.
  6. ↑ Wheaton, Sarah (April 9, 2013). "F.B.I. Looking Into Allegations That McConnell's Campaign Was Wiretapped". New York Times. Retrieved May 10, 2013.
  7. ↑ "2014 Kentucky Senate Primaries Results". Politico. August 28, 2014. Retrieved September 4, 2014.
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  9. ↑ "Lou. businessman, Matt Bevin, to enter Ky. US Senate race". Whas11.com. July 19, 2013. Retrieved July 22, 2013.
  10. 1 2 3 4 Gerth, Joseph (January 28, 2014). "Candidate filings: Republicans look to take over Kentucky House". Richmond Register . Retrieved January 29, 2014.
  11. ↑ "How To Make A Mockery Of The Senate Race". Louisville Telegraph. January 28, 2014. Archived from the original on February 1, 2014. Retrieved January 28, 2014.
  12. ↑ "U.S. Senator: Shawna Sterling". The Jessamine Journal. April 2, 2014. Archived from the original on October 9, 2014. Retrieved October 9, 2014.
  13. ↑ "Interview with U.S. Senate Candidate Shawna Sterling". WBKO. April 22, 2014. Archived from the original on October 14, 2014. Retrieved October 9, 2014.
  14. ↑ "This Kentucky GOP Senate Candidate's Bizarre Website Is Perfect". Mediaite. April 23, 2014. Retrieved October 9, 2014.
  15. ↑ Weber, Don (November 27, 2013). "On his 90th birthday Gurley L. Martin files challenge to McConnell". Mycn2.com. Retrieved January 27, 2014.
  16. ↑ Alessi, Ryan (January 21, 2013). "McConnell has one fewer Republican to run against in the May 20 primary: Gurley Martin is out". Mycn2.com. Retrieved January 27, 2014.
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  22. 1 2 "Former Republican Nominee for KY State Auditor John Kemper Endorses Matt Bevin". Matt Bevin for US Senate. November 7, 2013. Archived from the original on January 24, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
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  110. ↑ Youngman, Sam (July 16, 2014). "Independent Ed Marksberry stops gathering signatures for U.S. Senate run". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved July 16, 2014.
  111. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
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  115. ↑ "2014 General Election Results" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections.
  116. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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