2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election

2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election

←  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  →

Nominee Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Robert J. Healey Party Democratic Republican Moderate Popular vote 131,899 117,428 69,278 Percentage 40.7% 36.2% 21.4%

County results Municipality results Raimondo:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70% Fung:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60% Healey:     30–40%     40–50%

Governor before election Lincoln Chafee Democratic Elected Governor Gina Raimondo Democratic

The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates. Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independent in 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history.

Background

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. Senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat. ^[1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013 that he would not run for re-election. ^{[2] [3]} Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924. ^[4]

Democratic primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster. ^[5]

Candidates

Declared

• Todd Giroux, contractor and independent candidate for governor in 2010 ^[6]
• Clay Pell, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for International and Foreign Language Education in the United States Department of Education ^[7] and grandson of Rhode Island’s longest serving senator Claiborne Pell
• Gina Raimondo, Treasurer of Rhode Island ^[8]
• Angel Taveras, Mayor of Providence ^[9]

Withdrew

• Ernie Almonte, former auditor general of Rhode Island (running for Treasurer of Rhode Island) ^{[10] [11]}
• Lincoln Chafee, incumbent governor ^[3]

Declined

• Patrick C. Lynch, former Attorney General of Rhode Island ^[10]
• Elizabeth H. Roberts, Lieutenant Governor of Rhode Island ^[12]
• Robert Weygand, former U.S. Representative ^[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Todd Giroux	Clay Pell	Gina Raimondo	Angel Taveras	Other/ Undecided
Fleming & Associates	August 11–14, 2014	503	± 4.38%	1.4%	25.6%	32.2%	26.8%	12.9%
Fleming & Associates	May 27–30, 2014	506	± 4.38%	1.6%	11.5%	29.2%	33.4%	24.3%
Brown University	April 3–5, 2014	395	± 4.9%	—	9.6%	29.4%	25.8%	35.2%
Fleming & Associates	February 3–6, 2014	503	± 4.38%	1.2%	14.7%	27%	31.2%	25.9%
Brown University	October 2–5, 2013	433	± 4.5%	—	—	42%	33.6%	24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^	September 10–12, 2013	400	± 5%	—	—	30%	49%	21%

• ^ Internal poll for the Angel Taveras Campaign

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee	Ernie Almonte	Gina Raimondo	Angel Taveras	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	320	± 5.5%	22%	11%	35%	19%	12%
				—	9%	44%	35%	13%

Results

Results by municipality:

Raimondo

•   Raimondo—30–40%
•   Raimondo—40–50%
•   Raimondo—50–60%
•   Raimondo—60–70%

Pell

•   Pell—30–40%
•   Pell—40–50%

Taveras

•   Taveras—50–60%

Democratic primary results ^[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Gina Raimondo	53,990	42.15
	Democratic	Angel Taveras	37,326	29.14
	Democratic	Clay Pell	34,515	26.94
	Democratic	Todd Giroux	2,264	1.77
Total votes			128,095	100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Ken Block, Moderate Party nominee for governor in 2010 ^[15]
• Allan Fung, Mayor of Cranston ^[16]

Declined

• Scott Avedisian, Mayor of Warwick ^[17]
• Brendan Doherty, former Superintendent of the Rhode Island State Police and nominee for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district in 2012 ^[18]
• Barry Hinckley, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 ^[19]
• John Robitaille, former aide to Governor Donald Carcieri and nominee for Governor in 2010 ^[20]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ken Block	Allan Fung	Other/ Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. *	April 2014	300	± ?	46%	37%	17%
Brown University	April 3–5, 2014	86	± 10.6%	36%	31.4%	38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. *	October 2013	?	± ?	25%	53%	22%

• * Internal poll for the Ken Block campaign

Results

Results by county:

  Fung—50–60%

  Block—50–60%

Results by municipality:

Fung

•   Fung—50–60%
•   Fung—60–70%
•   Fung—70–80%

Block

•   Block—50–60%
•   Block—60–70%

Republican primary results ^[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Allan Fung	17,530	54.9
	Republican	Ken Block	14,399	45.1
Total votes			31,929	100.0

Other parties

Candidates

Declared

• Robert J. Healey (Moderate), perennial candidate ^[21]
• Kate Fletcher (Independent) ^[22]
• Leon Kayarian (Independent) ^[22]

Withdrew

• Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for Governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary) ^[15]
• James Spooner (Moderate) ^[23]

Removed from ballot

• Thomas Davis (Independent)
• Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
• Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Declined

• Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary) ^[24]

General election

Campaign

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%. ^[25] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received. ^[26] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race." ^[27]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 21, 2014

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [28]	Tossup	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [29]	Lean D	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [30]	Tilt D	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [31]	Tossup	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Gina Raimondo (D)	Allan Fung (R)	Robert J. Healey (M)	Other	Undecided
Brown University	October 25–26, 2014	500	± 4.4%	40%	39%	13%	1% [32]	11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	October 16–23, 2014	866	± 6%	40%	35%	—	4%	21%
Brown University	October 14–17, 2014	1,129	± 2.9%	42%	31%	9%	1% [33]	18%
Fleming & Associates	October 6–9, 2014	505	± 4%	42%	36%	8%	1% [34]	14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	September 20–October 1, 2014	724	± 4%	41%	38%	—	2%	19%
Rasmussen Reports	September 23–25, 2014	750	± 4%	42%	37%	—	11%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies*	September 10–11, 2014	500	± 4.38%	42%	42%	—	—	16%
Brown University	October 2–5, 2013	638	± 3.9%	38%	36%	—	—	27%
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	46%	27%	—	12% [35]	14%

• * Internal poll for the Allan Fung campaign

Hypothetical polling

With Raimondo

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Gina Raimondo (D)	Brendan Doherty (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	44%	32%	10%	14%

With Taveras

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Angel Taveras (D)	Ken Block (R)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	July 5–24, 2014	919	± 3.4%	49%	24%	15%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Angel Taveras (D)	Brendan Doherty (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	39%	35%	13%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Angel Taveras (D)	Allan Fung (R)	Ken Block (I)	Other	Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov	August 18–September 2, 2014	764	± 4%	33%	33%	—	20%	14%
Brown University	October 2–5, 2013	638	± 3.9%	42%	33%	—	—	26%
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	37%	31%	15%	—	17%

With Chafee

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee (D)	Brendan Doherty (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	35%	39%	13%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee (D)	Allan Fung (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	32%	36%	16%	15%

Four-way race

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee (I)	Gina Raimondo (D)	Brendan Doherty (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	22%	32%	28%	8%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee (I)	Gina Raimondo (D)	Allan Fung (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	21%	35%	23%	10%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee (I)	Angel Taveras (D)	Brendan Doherty (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	23%	26%	31%	10%	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lincoln Chafee (I)	Angel Taveras (D)	Allan Fung (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 28–30, 2013	614	± 4%	20%	26%	26%	13%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Gina Raimondo (D)	Angel Taveras (D)	Allan Fung (R)	Ken Block (I)	Undecided
Brown University	October 2–5, 2013	638	± 4.5%	27%	21%	19%	9%	24%

Results

Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014 ^[36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Gina Raimondo	131,899	40.70%	+17.65%
	Republican	Allan Fung	117,428	36.24%	+2.67%
	Moderate	Robert J. Healey	69,278	21.38%	+14.91%
	Independent	Kate Fletcher	3,483	1.07%	N/A
	Independent	Leon Kayarian	1,228	0.38%	N/A
	Write-in		739	0.23%	N/A
Turnout			324,055	100%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county

	Gina Raimondo Democratic		Allan Fung Republican		Robert J. Healey Moderate		Others		Total
County	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Bristol	7,312	39.88%	4,806	26.21%	6,060	33.05%	158	0.86%	18,336
Kent	20,176	34.19%	23,009	38.99%	14,937	25.31%	893	1.51%	59,015
Newport	12,888	43.74%	10,122	34.35%	5,898	20.01%	560	1.90%	29,468
Providence	73,262	43.16%	61,519	36.24%	32,086	18.90%	2,883	1.70%	169,750
Washington	18,261	38.46%	17,972	37.85%	10,297	21.68%	956	2.01%	47,486

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Newport (largest municipality: Newport)

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

• Bristol (largest municipality: Bristol)
• Providence (largest municipality: Providence)
• Washington (largest municipality: South Kingstown)

By municipality

	Gina Raimondo Democratic		Allan Fung Republican		Robert J. Healey Moderate		Others		Total
Municipality	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Barrington	3,566	49.6%	2,022	28.1%	1,554	21.6%	50	0.7%	7,192
Bristol	2,628	35.7%	1,959	26.6%	2,709	36.8%	75	1.0%	7,368
Burrillville	1,334	28.6%	1,861	39.9%	1,371	29.4%	104	2.2%	4,670
Central Falls	1,359	66.4%	358	17.5%	280	13.7%	50	2.4%	2,047
Charlestown	1,177	38.0%	1,137	36.7%	728	23.5%	59	1.9%	3,101
Coventry	3,812	30.2%	4,979	39.4%	3,610	28.6%	233	1.8%	12,634
Cranston	8,159	30.2%	14,853	55.0%	3,716	13.8%	278	1.0%	27,006
Cumberland	4,661	39.9%	4,325	37.0%	2,478	21.2%	220	1.9%	11,684
East Greenwich	2,364	42.3%	2,315	41.4%	848	15.2%	65	1.2%	5,592
East Providence	5,958	43.5%	3,718	27.1%	3,804	27.8%	225	1.6%	13,705
Exeter	771	28.4%	1,147	42.3%	742	27.3%	53	2.0%	2,713
Foster	534	28.0%	732	38.3%	604	31.6%	40	2.1%	1,910
Glocester	963	27.2%	1,503	42.5%	1,019	28.8%	55	1.5%	3,540
Hopkinton	836	30.9%	1,080	39.9%	723	26.7%	68	2.3%	2,707
Jamestown	1,325	46.2%	901	31.4%	590	20.6%	63	1.9%	2,879
Johnston	3,270	32.6%	4,502	44.9%	2,126	21.2%	134	1.5%	10,032
Lincoln	2,974	36.2%	3,249	39.6%	1,870	22.8%	119	1.4%	8,212
Little Compton	674	41.2%	648	39.7%	288	17.6%	22	1.4%	1,632
Middletown	2,241	41.9%	1,902	35.5%	1,090	20.4%	119	2.3%	5,352
Narragansett	2,395	39.3%	2,410	39.6%	1,198	19.7%	84	1.4%	6,087
New Shoreham	365	50.3%	174	24.0%	173	23.8%	14	1.9%	726
Newport	3,734	49.4%	2,312	30.6%	1,331	17.6%	177	2.3%	7,554
North Kingstown	4,166	37.6%	4,305	38.8%	2,422	21.8%	195	1.7%	11,088
North Providence	4,013	36.1%	4,505	40.6%	2,414	21.7%	170	1.6%	11,102
North Smithfield	1,456	33.2%	1,870	42.7%	986	22.5%	68	1.6%	4,380
Pawtucket	7,144	51.8%	3,391	24.6%	2,960	21.5%	284	2.1%	13,779
Portsmouth	2,824	41.1%	2,477	36.1%	1,426	20.8%	136	2.0%	6,863
Providence	24,662	65.0%	8,445	22.3%	4,116	10.8%	720	1.9%	37,943
Richmond	851	29.5%	1,153	40.0%	825	28.6%	53	1.8%	2,882
Scituate	1,170	25.5%	2,203	48.1%	1,146	25.0%	63	1.3%	4,582
Smithfield	2,587	33.7%	3,241	42.2%	1,725	22.5%	119	1.6%	7,672
South Kingstown	4,606	43.1%	3,562	33.3%	2,291	21.4%	233	2.2%	10,692
Tiverton	2,090	39.8%	1,882	35.9%	1,173	22.4%	103	2.0%	5,248
Warren	1,118	29.6%	825	21.9%	1,797	47.6%	33	0.9%	3,773
Warwick	10,559	35.0%	11,383	37.7%	7,795	25.8%	428	1.4%	30,165
West Greenwich	605	25.0%	1,097	45.3%	684	28.3%	33	1.3%	2,419
West Warwick	2,836	34.6%	3,235	39.4%	2,000	24.4%	134	1.6%	8,205
Westerly	3,094	41.3%	3,004	40.1%	1,195	16.0%	197	2.6%	7,490
Woonsocket	3,018	40.6%	2,763	37.2%	1,471	19.8%	182	2.4%	7,434

References

1. Klepper, David (December 14, 2012). "RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem". Boston.com. Associated Press . Retrieved December 18, 2012.
2. Sullivan, Sean (September 4, 2013). "Why Lincoln Chafee's decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
3. Taylor, Jessica (September 4, 2013). "Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term". NBC News. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
4. Ostermeier, Eric (September 6, 2013). "Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term". Smart Politics. Archived from the original on October 4, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
5. Stephanie Simon (September 8, 2014). "Dem divisions on display in Rhode Island race". Politico. Retrieved September 25, 2015.
6. Faccenda, Anthony (October 4, 2013). "The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare". GoLocalProv. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
7. The Associated Press (January 27, 2014). "Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov". POLITICO . Retrieved January 27, 2014.
8. Nesi, Ted (December 18, 2013). "Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor". WPRI-TV . Archived from the original on December 22, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
9. Gregg, Katherine (October 26, 2013). "Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor". The Providence Journal . Retrieved October 28, 2013.
10. DeQuattro, Dee (April 30, 2013). "Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor". ABC 6. Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved May 1, 2013.
11. Nesi, Ted (May 16, 2013). "Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer". WPRI. Archived from the original on June 13, 2013. Retrieved May 17, 2013.
12. Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee Archived May 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
13. "Former Congressman Bob Weygand mulling run for governor - WPRI.com Blogs". Archived from the original on September 12, 2014. Retrieved September 12, 2014.
14. "2014 Statewide Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
15. Gregg, Katherine (October 28, 2013). "Ken Block, Moderate Party's 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014". The Providence Journal . Retrieved October 28, 2013.
16. Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013). "Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor". Woonsocket Patch. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
17. Nesi, Ted (July 12, 2013). "Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14". WPRI-TV . Archived from the original on July 15, 2013. Retrieved August 10, 2013.
18. Kalunian, Kim (May 17, 2013). "NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014". Archived from the original on October 29, 2013. Retrieved May 20, 2013.
19. "Dan McGowan on Twitter: "Barry Hinckley tells me he has no interest in running for Governor. Clears field for @peterbaptista"" . Retrieved September 12, 2014.
20. "Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor". NBC 10. Associated Press. October 18, 2013. Archived from the original on October 26, 2013. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
21. Towne, Shaun (September 12, 2014). "Moderate candidate Healey could impact governor's race". WPRI. Archived from the original on September 14, 2014. Retrieved September 14, 2014.
22. "12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race". NBC 10 News . June 25, 2014. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
23. Katherine Gregg (September 15, 2014). "R.I. GOP challenges Healey as Moderate Party's 11th-hour candidate for governor". Providence Journal. Retrieved September 24, 2014.
24. Nesi, Ted (October 26, 2013). "The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI". WPRI. Archived from the original on October 28, 2013. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
25. "Pension Cuts Cost Democrat Union Support in Rhode Island". Wall Street Journal. October 28, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
26. "Bob Healey spent $0.0005 for every vote he got". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
27. "Healey: It's amazing what $35 can do". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
28. "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
29. "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
30. "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
31. "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
32. Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
33. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1%
34. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
35. Ken Block (I)
36. RI.gov: Election Results

External links

• Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Robert J. Healey for Governor
• Ken Block for Governor
• Allan Fung for Governor
• Todd Giroux for Governor
• Bob Healey for Governor
• Clay Pell for Governor
• Gina Raimondo for Governor
• Angel Taveras for Governor
• Kate Fletcher for Governor 2014