2013 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2013 Virginia gubernatorial election
Flag of Virginia.svg
←  2009 November 5, 2013 2017  →
Turnout43.0% Increase2.svg 2.6 [1]
  Virginia Governor Democrats Terry McAuliffe 095 Cropped (cropped).jpg Ken Cuccinelli by Gage Skidmore.jpg Robert Sarvis (cropped).jpg
Nominee Terry McAuliffe Ken Cuccinelli Robert Sarvis
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote1,069,7891,013,354146,084
Percentage47.75%45.23%6.52%
2013 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2013 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by CD.svg
2013 VA GOV.svg
McAuliffe:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Cuccinelli:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
     No votes
Governor before election

Bob McDonnell
Republican

Elected Governor

Terry McAuliffe
Democratic

The 2013 Virginia gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2013, to elect the governor of Virginia. The incumbent governor, Republican Bob McDonnell, was not eligible to run for re-election due to term limits established by the Virginia Constitution. Virginia is the only state that prohibits its governor from serving immediate successive terms.

Contents

Three candidates appeared on the ballot for Governor: Republican Ken Cuccinelli, the Attorney General of Virginia; Democrat Terry McAuliffe, a businessman and the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee; and Libertarian Robert Sarvis, a lawyer and businessman. [2]

McAuliffe won the election and was sworn in as governor on January 11, 2014. This was the only Virginia gubernatorial election since 1973 in which the elected governor belonged to the same political party of incumbent U.S. President. [3] [4] This was also the only Virginia gubernatorial election since 1965 in which no candidate won an outright majority of the vote. [5] This would be the first Virginia gubernatorial election in which that the town of Bedford would become part of Bedford County instead of being an Independent city. [6]

Candidates

Republican Party

Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, elected to the post in 2005, made a deal with McDonnell whereby Bolling would run for re-election as lieutenant governor in 2009, enabling McDonnell to run for governor without a primary, in exchange for McDonnell's support in 2013. After the 2009 election, Bolling made no secret of his intention to run for governor in 2013, while Attorney General of Virginia Ken Cuccinelli openly stated that he was considering three options: a run for re-election as attorney general in 2013, running for the U.S. Senate in 2014, and running for governor in 2013. [7] Cuccinelli announced to colleagues on December 1, 2011, that he was indeed running for governor. [8] Bolling responded on the same day that he was disappointed that Cuccinelli decided to challenge him. [9]

Bolling, who was polling poorly against Cuccinelli, withdrew from the race on November 28, 2012. He cited the Republican Party's decision to move to a nominating convention rather than hold a primary. He ruled out running for another term as lieutenant governor and refused to endorse Cuccinelli. [10] Bolling considered running as an independent, but decided against it. [11] Bolling also rejected the possibility of a write-in campaign. [12]

Nominee

Cuccinelli became the de facto nominee after being the only candidate to file to run by the deadline, and was formally nominated at the state Republican convention on May 18, 2013. [14]

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Bolling		Ken
Cuccinelli		Undecided
Quinnipiac May 30 – June 4, 2012549± 4.2%15%51%31%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012400± 4.9%23%51%22%
Roanoke College February 13–28, 2012377± 5%18%37%44%
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011350± 5.2%25%44%31%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011400± 4.9%21%45%34%

Democratic Party

McAuliffe campaigning in May 2013 Virginia Governor Democrats Terry McAuliffe 102 (8724560481).jpg
McAuliffe campaigning in May 2013

Nominee

On April 2, 2013, the Democratic Party of Virginia certified that McAuliffe was the only candidate to file for the June primary and therefore the Democratic nominee. [20]

Declined

Libertarian Party

Nominee

On April 21, 2013, the Libertarian Party of Virginia held a special convention [27] and nominated Sarvis as the party's official gubernatorial candidate. [28]

Sarvis' campaign submitted over 17,000 signatures to meet the Virginia State Board of Elections (SBE) requirement of 10,000 valid signatures. [29] On June 26, 2013, the SBE confirmed to Sarvis' campaign that he would be listed on the ballot statewide during the elections this November. [30] This made Sarvis the fourth minor party gubernatorial nominee to get on the Virginia ballot in 40 years. [29]

Write-in candidates

Declared

  • John Parmele, Jr., navy retiree [31]

Parmele announced his campaign as a write-in candidate in August 2013. Parmele unsuccessfully ran for the Virginia Beach City Council six times. [32] In 2005, he ran as an independent for the 82nd district of the Virginia House of Delegates and lost to incumbent Harry Purkey. [33] [34]

Salahi planned to seek the Republican nomination, but left the party to launch an independent bid. [36] However, he failed to submit the necessary signatures to the Virginia State Board of Elections by the June 11, 2013, deadline and did not appear on the ballot as an independent. He transitioned his run into a write-in campaign and said he would pursue a congressional seat if he didn't win the governorship. [37] [38] Salahi also scheduled to have a film document his campaign by Campbell Media Group, but the production company faced legal allegations. [39]

Declined

General election

Campaign sign for Cuccinelli Ken Cuccinelli sign horses (10319777036).jpg
Campaign sign for Cuccinelli

Debates and forums

Cuccinelli challenged McAuliffe to a series of 15 debates around the state. [40] McAuliffe refused, and called Cuccinelli's challenge "absurd" [41] and a "gimmick". [42] Cuccinelli responded, "McAuliffe's campaign might have dismissed the challenge, but it's clear that community leaders and Virginians share our desire to hold real debates across the Commonwealth." [43]

Both candidates agreed to participate in three debates: July 20, 2013, in Hot Springs, sponsored by the Virginia Bar Association; September 25, 2013, in McLean, sponsored by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and broadcast by NBC affiliates throughout Virginia; [44] and a third debate on October 24, 2013, at Virginia Tech. [45]

Cuccinelli declined to appear at the League of Women Voters/AARP debate, calling it a "left-wing, stacked debate". [46] Cuccinelli accepted a debate invitation in Danville for a date in September or October; McAuliffe did not respond. [41]

Sarvis was not invited to the debates or forums; some newspapers, including the Richmond Times Dispatch , The Roanoke Times , and The Daily Progress , called for his inclusion. [47] [48] [49] [50] Barton Hinkle of the Richmond Times Dispatch called the current debate process "stacked" suggesting that debate organizers are activists trying to influence the outcome of the election for their own ideological purposes. [51] Sarvis said he would "debate anybody anywhere under any conditions." [52]

McAuliffe and his campaign repeatedly declined to give a cost for his spending priorities, stating he would pay for them through unspecified government efficiency improvements, the Medicaid expansion, and federal money from Obamacare. [53] McAuliffe said tax increases would not be on the table to pay for policy proposals. [54] Cuccinelli's 2013 campaign conducted an analysis that found McAuliffe's spending plan would cost at least $14 billion – including $12 billion in new spending – over a four-year term and would translate into a $1,700 tax hike on the average Virginia family. [53] [55] [56] McAuliffe's campaign accused Cuccinelli's campaign of "fabricat[ing]" the numbers. [57]

Virginia Bar Association debate

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe met in their first debate on Saturday, July 20, 2013, at the Omni Homestead Resort in Hot Springs, Virginia, for the Virginia Bar Association-sponsored debate. Both major party candidates attacked their opponent's record, and they debated one another on issues including transportation, federal healthcare, abortion, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, same-sex marriage, and other topics. [58] [59] [60] PBS' Judy Woodruff moderated the debate. [61] Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to join the debate, but he attended the event to greet voters. [47] [61] [62]

Virginia Farm Bureau forum

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe discussed their plans for Virginia's largest industry, agriculture and forest products, on Friday, August 2, 2013, at Wytheville Community College in Wytheville, Virginia. The candidates also discussed topics including transportation and healthcare. The forum was hosted by the Farm Bureau's Young Farmers Committee. Libertarian Sarvis was not invited. [63] [64]

Tidewater Community College forum

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe appeared Tuesday, August 6, 2013, at the Norfolk Waterside Marriott in Norfolk, Virginia at an event hosted by Tidewater Community College. Democrat McAuliffe argued that improving transportation would spur job creation, and he wanted to reform the Standards of Learning and Medicaid. Republican Cuccinelli focused on tax cuts as well as expanding opportunities for veterans and growing Virginia's ports. [65] [66] Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to the event, but a spokesman provided a statement about the libertarian candidate. [67]

"Battleground Forum"

Cuccinelli and McAuliffe took the stage again on August 9, 2013, at the Hylton Performing Arts Center in Manassas, Virginia, hosted by the chambers of commerce from Loudoun, Prince William, Reston and Fredericksburg. Both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe answered a series of questions from representatives from each of the chambers that hosted the forum, and both were called out by the event's moderator for dodging specific questions. The sharpest exchange was between McAuliffe and the forum moderator Derek McGinty, an anchor on WUSA. McAuliffe declined to take a position on the proposed Bi-County Parkway, a controversial project that would cut through Manassas National Battlefield Park to connect Prince William and Loudoun counties. [68] Libertarian Sarvis attended the event but was not included as a candidate, [69] [70] which led some political observers, such as the Franklin Center for Government and Public Integrity's project watchdog.org , to say that the number one thing missing from the forum was the invitation to include Sarvis. [71] Four days after moderating the Battleground Forum, WUSA-TV news anchor Derek McGinty said Sarvis should be part of the conversation. [72]

Energy forum in Arlington

The Consumer Energy Alliance, the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA), the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, and the Virginia Manufacturers Association co-hosted a forum focused on energy with Cuccinelli and McAuliffe on August 29, 2013. Libertarian Sarvis was not invited to the forum. The event took place at the George Mason University School of Law campus in Arlington. Both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe launched broad attacks on one another. Cuccinelli pointed out McAuliffe's inconsistent stances on coal and offshore drilling (McAuliffe made anti-coal and anti-offshore drilling statements during his 2009 campaign but has attempted to take a more centrist position in 2013). [73] Cuccinelli also pointed to the GreenTech scandal enveloping McAuliffe. [73] McAuliffe offered few specifics on his own energy policy plans but attacked Cuccinelli for his lawsuit of a Virginia Tech professor and expert on global warming whom he investigated for fraud, and said Cuccinelli's views on social issues would drive away businesses. [73] [74] [75] [76]

Fairfax County debate

The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and NBC4 hosted a debate between Cuccinelli and McAuliffe on September 25, 2013. NBC political journalist Chuck Todd moderated. The debate was held at the Capital One Bank headquarters in McLean, Virginia, and was aired live on NBC4 and NBC affiliates in Richmond, Charlottesville, Bristol and other Virginia cities. [77] Throughout the debate, both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli attacked their opponent's records and views. McAuliffe focused on Medicaid expansion, failed to answer a question about the price tag of his education plan, and was exposed for not knowing that a state constitutional amendment is required to reverse the state's constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. Cuccinelli focused on his experience in office, defended his social views, and dodged a question about which loopholes he would close. After the debate, the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce endorsed McAuliffe. [78]

A spokesman said the debate would exclude Sarvis for "no other reason other than our tradition to provide a forum for the two major-party candidates." [79] Sarvis attended the debate and his campaign debuted a television ad, which aired in Northern Virginia. [80] [81] [82] The Sarvis ad caused Peter Galuszka of The Washington Post to say Sarvis "won" the debate. [83] Five days after the debate moderator Chuck Todd invited Sarvis onto his show, The Daily Rundown , and asked Sarvis questions from the debate. [84]

Virginia Tech debate

Virginia Tech and WDBJ sponsored a debate between McAuliffe and Cuccinelli on October 24, 2013.

Prior to the debate, Cuccinelli agreed informally to participate, though his campaign asked questions about the rules, including to raise the threshold for a third-party candidate to participate, before formally agreeing. McAuliffe also agreed to the rules. [85] Originally, the announced threshold for inclusion in the debate was ten percent in the polls. [79] [85] [86] [87] [88] Later, it would be announced the threshold for inclusion in the debate was ten percent according to the RealClearPolitics average by the October 10 invitation deadline. On October 10, Sarvis was polling at 9% in the RealClearPolitics average, and WDBJ announced that Sarvis would not be included at the debate. [89] Sarvis responded that the debate rules were "designed to exclude." [90] [91]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports through November 28, 2013
CandidateSpentVotesCost per Vote
Terry McAuliffe$38,003,8361,069,789$35.52
Ken Cuccinelli$20,942,4961,013,354$20.67
Robert Sarvis$213,781146,084$1.46
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [92] [93] [94] [95]

McAuliffe's funds include $5.7 million from the Democratic Governors Association PAC; $950,000 from the Virginia League of Conservation Voters; over $294,000 he donated to himself; $250,000 from Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos; $120,000 from the Liberian International Ship & Corporate Registry; $100,005 from his father-in-law, Richard Swann; and $100,000 from Bill Clinton. [96] Cuccinelli's funds include $3.97 million from the Republican Governors Association PAC and $500,000 from the Republican Party of Virginia [97] McAuliffe has received 34 contributions of $100,000 or more; [96] Cuccinelli has received six contributions of $100,000 or more. [97]

72% of McAuliffe's campaign contributors are from Virginia, but in the first quarter of 2013, 78% of his total funds came from donors from outside Virginia. [98] 33% of Cuccinelli's funds in the first quarter of 2013 came from donors outside Virginia. [98]

Through the first quarter of 2013 ending on March 31, 2013, McAuliffe had raised $6.7 million, and Cuccinelli had raised $4.4 million. [99]

In the second quarter of 2013, McAuliffe raised $2.2 million, Cuccinelli raised $1.1 million, and Sarvis raised approximately $2,500. Terry McAuliffe's top five donors are from outside Virginia. [93] Three of Ken Cuccinelli's top five donors are from out-of-state. [94]

From July 1, 2013, through August 31, 2013, McAuliffe raised $7,355,246; and Cuccinelli raised $5,688,222. [100] Over that period, McAuliffe received 2,010 contributions of more than $100, and 5,476 contributions of $100 or less; [101] while Cuccinelli received 3,193 contributions of more than $100, and 7,075 contributions of $100 or less. [102] During the same period, McAuliffe's biggest donations included the DGA ($2.7 million); the Virginia League of Conservation Voters ($900,000); the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees ($100,000); Laborers' International Union of North America Education Fund ($100,000); and the United Food and Commercial Workers Active Ballot Club Education Fund ($100,000). [103] Cuccinelli's biggest donations included several energy companies and private individuals; his largest contribution over the period was $30,000. [104] As of August 31, 2013, McAuliffe's campaign has $5,010,223 cash on hand, and Cuccinelli's campaign has $2,234,369 cash on hand.

Spending by outside groups

Tom Steyer's PAC NextGen Climate Action, Michael Bloomberg's PAC Independence USA, the National Education Association and the Planned Parenthood Action Fund have purchased a combined total of over $4.3 million worth of airtime for television ads supporting McAuliffe or opposing Cuccinelli. [105] [106] Americans for Prosperity, Citizens United, the Virginia Principles Fund PAC, NRA Political Victory Fund, the Ending Spending Fund, and the Fight for Tomorrow PAC have purchased a combined total of just over $2 million worth of airtime for television ads supporting Cuccinelli or opposing McAuliffe. [105] Purple PAC, a Libertarian-leaning super PAC, spent over $300,000 in television ads designed to boost the Sarvis campaign before election day. [107]

Endorsements

Ken Cuccinelli
Elected officials
Others
Organizations
Newspapers
Terry McAuliffe
Current and former statewide politicians
Current and former state-level politicians
National politicians
Others
Organizations
Newspapers
Robert Sarvis
Elected officials
Others
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Elected officials
Newspapers

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Rothenberg Political Report [158] Lean D (flip)October 25, 2013
Sabato's Crystal Ball [159] Likely D (flip)October 24, 2013

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Ken
Cuccinelli (R)		Terry
McAuliffe (D)		Robert
Sarvis (L)		Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 24 – November 3, 2013November 3, 201338.9%45.6%9.6%5.9%McAuliffe +6.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Cuccinelli (R)		Terry
McAuliffe (D)		Robert
Sarvis (L)		OtherUndecided
Newsmax/Zogby November 2–4, 2013600± 4.1%31%43%12%4%11%
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2013870± 3.3%43%50%4%—3%
Quinnipiac October 29 – November 3, 20131,606± 2.5%40%46%8%—5%
42%49%—1%8%
Newsmax/Zogby October 30 – November 1, 2013600± 4.1%36%43%9%3%9%
Emerson College October 25–30, 2013874± 3.24%40%42%13%—5%
Christopher Newport University October 25–30, 20131,038± 3%38%45%10%—7%
Rasmussen October 28–29, 20131,002± 3%36%43%12%2%7%
Quinnipiac October 22–28, 20131,182± 2.9%41%45%9%1%4%
45%47%—2%7%
Public Policy Polling October 26–27, 2013709 EV ± 3.6%40%54%4%—2%
Hampton University October 24, 26–27, 2013800± 2.9%36%42%12%—10%
41%42%——17%
Washington Post/Abt SRBI October 24–27, 2013762± 4.5%39%51%8%—1%
42%53%——5%
Roanoke College October 21–27, 2013838± 3.4%31%46%9%—15%
Old Dominion Poll October 22, 2013670± 5%37%44%7%2%11%
Quinnipiac October 15–21, 20131,085± 3%39%46%10%1%4%
42%50%—2%7%
Rasmussen October 20, 20131,000± 3%33%50%8%3%5%
Public Policy Polling October 19–20, 2013724 EV ± 3.6%39%57%3%—1%
NBC News/Marist October 13–15, 2013596± 4%38%46%9%1%7%
43%52%—1%4%
Christopher Newport University October 8–13, 2013753± 3.6%39%46%11%—4%
Quinnipiac October 2–8, 20131,180± 2.9%39%47%8%—5%
42%49%—1%7%
PPP/Harper Polling October 5–6, 20131,150± 2.9%35%44%12%—8%
42%52%——5%
Watson Center October 1–6, 2013886± 3.1%38%47%8%—7%
Roanoke College September 30 – October 5, 20131,046± 3%34%40%9%—16%
Emerson College September 26–30, 2013519± 4.25%38%43%11%—8%
Newsmax/Zogby September 27–29, 2013600± 4.1%27%32%13%—24%
32%33%—11%24%
Hampton University September 25–29, 2013800± 2.9%37%42%8%—12%
University of Mary Washington September 25–29, 2013559± 4.7%35%42%10%5%8%
Rasmussen September 23, 20131,050± 3%38%44%6%2%11%
Washington Post/Abt SRBI September 19–22, 2013562± 5%39%47%10%—3%
44%49%—1%6%
Conquest Communications September 19, 2013400± 5%35%36%11%—19%
NBC News/Marist September 17–19, 2013546± 4.2%38%43%8%—11%
Harper Polling September 15–16, 2013779± 3.51%37%42%10%—11%
Roanoke College September 9–15, 2013874± 3.3%36%37%9%—17%
Quinnipiac September 9–15, 20131,005± 3.1%41%44%7%1%6%
Purple Strategies September 6–10, 2013800± 3.5%38%43%——19%
Rasmussen September 3–4, 2013998± 3%38%45%—7%10%
Public Policy Polling August 27–28, 2013500± ?37%44%9%—9%
Emerson College August 23–28, 2013653± 3.8%35%45%10%—11%
Quinnipiac August 14–19, 20131,129± 2.9%42%48%—2%9%
Quinnipiac July 11–15, 20131,030± 3.1%39%43%—1%17%
Public Policy Polling July 11–14, 2013601± 4%37%41%7%—15%
Roanoke College July 8–14, 2013525± 4.3%37%31%5%—27%
Rasmussen June 5–6, 20131,000± 3%41%44%—3%12%
Public Policy Polling May 24–26, 2013672± 3.8%37%42%——21%
Wenzel Strategies May 14–15, 2013800± 3.4%44%36%——21%
Quinnipiac May 8–13, 20131,286± 2.7%38%43%—1%19%
The Washington Post April 29 – May 2, 20131,000± 3.5%46%41%——13%
NBC News/Marist April 28 – May 2, 20131,095± 3%41%43%—1%16%
Roanoke College April 8–14, 2013639± 3.9%34%29%——38%
Quinnipiac March 20–25, 20131,098± 3%40%38%—2%20%
University of Mary Washington March 20–24, 20131,004± 3.5%37%38%——25%
Quinnipiac February 14–18, 20131,112± 2.9%38%38%—1%23%
Roanoke College January 14–22, 2013583± 4.1%33%26%——41%
Christopher Newport University January 14–20, 20131,015± 3.1%30%31%—6%33%
Quinnipiac January 4–7, 20131,134± 2.9%39%40%—2%19%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013602± 4%41%46%——13%
Quinnipiac November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%37%41%—1%22%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%40%40%——20%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%37%41%——22%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%36%41%——23%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600± 4%41%40%——20%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%41%38%——22%
Hypothetical polling
With Bolling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Bolling (R)		Gerry
Connolly (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600± 4%39%36%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Bolling (R)		Terry
McAuliffe (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%36%38%1%25%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%40%37%—23%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%36%33%—31%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%36%34%—30%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600± 4%39%36%—25%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%38%33%—29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Bolling (R)		Tom
Perriello (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%39%36%—25%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%38%32%—30%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%35%34%—31%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600± 4%39%35%—26%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%39%32%—29%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Bolling (R)		Mark
Warner (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%33%53%—15%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%36%50%—14%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%35%49%—16%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%32%53%—14%
With Cuccinelli
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Cuccinelli (R)		Gerry
Connolly (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600± 4%40%41%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Cuccinelli (R)		Tom
Perriello (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%39%41%—20%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%39%38%—23%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%36%39%—25%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011600± 4%41%41%—19%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011500± 4.4%41%36%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Cuccinelli (R)		Mark
Warner (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac November 8–12, 20121,469± 2.6%34%52%—15%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012855± 3.4%36%53%—11%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012647± 3.9%37%51%—13%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012680± 3.8%33%53%—14%
Three-way race
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Cuccinelli (R)		Terry
McAuliffe (D)		Bill
Bolling (I)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2013870± 3.3%32%34%22%—13%
Quinnipiac February 14–18, 20131,112± 2.9%31%34%13%—22%
Roanoke College January 14–22, 2013583± 4.1%25%19%12%—44%
Christopher Newport University January 14–20, 20131,015± 3.1%27%27%9%—37%
Quinnipiac January 4–7, 20131,134± 2.9%34%34%13%—19%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013602± 4%32%40%15%—13%

Results

Polls indicated McAuliffe would win comfortably on Election Day. However, the race was much closer than expected. Cuccinelli led for a good portion of the evening. However, Fairfax County, a suburb of Washington D.C., is heavily Democratic, and is often one of the last parts of the state to count their votes. With around 90% of the vote McAuliffe took the lead for the first time. McAuliffe's lead continued to grow as Fairfax County came in. With 96% of the vote counted, CNN called the race for McAuliffe. At 10:06 P.M. EST, Cuccinelli called McAuliffe to concede defeat. Ralph Northam, also a Democrat, won the race for lieutenant governor, making the governor and the lieutenant governor both Democrats for the first time since 2006.

Virginia gubernatorial election, 2013 [160]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Terry McAuliffe 1,069,789 47.75% +6.50%
Republican Ken Cuccinelli 1,013,35445.23%−13.38%
Libertarian Robert Sarvis 146,0846.52%N/A
Write-in 11,0870.49%+0.37%
Total votes2,240,314 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Results by county and city

County [160] McAuliffeVotesCuccinelliVotesSarvisVotesOthersVotes
Accomack 41.9%3,80653.7%4,8794.2%3820.2%19
Albemarle 54.3%19,03935.4%12,4089.3%3,2791.0%362
Alexandria 71.8%29,58422.8%9,4054.9%2,0290.5%200
Alleghany 39.4%1,62848.2%1,99311.8%4870.7%28
Amelia 31.4%1,33861.4%2,6136.8%2900.4%16
Amherst 33.1%2,99360.5%5,4666.1%5500.3%30
Appomattox 24.4%1,24168.4%3,4756.8%3480.4%20
Arlington 71.6%48,34622.2%14,9785.8%3,9340.4%281
Augusta 25.0%5,10067.7%13,8176.9%1,4040.4%88
Bath 32.3%39256.6%68610.5%1270.7%8
Bedford 23.2%5,80269.3%17,3307.1%1,7690.5%119
Bland 21.0%38870.3%1,3008.1%1500.6%11
Botetourt 25.8%2,92465.1%7,3668.2%9310.8%92
Bristol 32.7%1,30563.5%2,5363.3%1330.6%22
Brunswick 59.8%2,70435.8%1,6184.2%1880.3%13
Buchanan 30.1%1,46167.5%3,2752.2%1050.2%8
Buckingham 43.3%1,80449.3%2,0537.0%2920.3%14
Buena Vista 33.9%42257.9%7217.8%970.4%5
Campbell 23.4%3,71270.2%11,1335.9%9400.5%82
Caroline 48.7%3,79443.4%3,3807.2%5640.6%47
Carroll 27.7%2,18264.2%5,0617.7%6030.4%32
Charles City 61.3%1,55832.6%8285.7%1450.4%11
Charlotte 36.4%1,35856.4%2,1047.0%2620.2%8
Charlottesville 75.5%9,44015.4%1,9228.2%1,0261.0%120
Chesapeake 48.7%30,83845.6%28,8555.4%3,3910.3%193
Chesterfield 40.8%42,86548.7%51,1149.5%9,9491.0%1,064
Clarke 40.8%2,00252.9%2,5966.1%3010.2%8
Colonial Heights 22.4%1,13165.6%3,31911.1%5601.0%50
Covington 46.3%59040.2%51312.6%1610.9%11
Craig 24.3%39665.1%1,06310.3%1680.3%5
Culpeper 32.9%3,92360.9%7,2725.7%6780.6%67
Cumberland 40.9%1,19050.1%1,4568.7%2520.3%10
Danville 49.7%5,38944.5%4,8245.5%5950.3%28
Dickenson 34.5%1,18461.9%2,1253.1%1050.6%19
Dinwiddie 45.3%3,38047.0%3,5077.4%5490.3%22
Emporia 59.6%98734.4%5695.4%900.5%9
Essex 44.3%1,38147.7%1,4877.2%2250.7%22
Fairfax County 58.3%178,74636.1%110,6815.2%15,8280.4%1,175
Fairfax 55.4%3,98738.6%2,7775.5%3970.5%35
Falls Church 71.3%3,52323.1%1,1425.1%2530.5%24
Fauquier 35.1%7,37659.9%12,5654.7%9920.3%59
Floyd 32.5%1,48857.6%2,6369.3%4270.6%29
Fluvanna 42.3%3,34847.7%3,7749.3%7360.7%52
Franklin County 29.1%4,75661.3%10,0118.9%1,4530.6%104
Franklin 59.1%1,36236.2%8334.0%920.7%16
Frederick 30.8%6,33963.8%13,1485.2%1,0700.2%48
Fredericksburg 57.4%3,48835.5%2,1546.6%4000.5%30
Galax 35.4%45556.7%7287.6%980.3%4
Giles 30.8%1,54158.9%2,9449.7%4870.5%25
Gloucester 32.4%3,63359.7%6,6887.7%8620.2%21
Goochland 33.5%3,07756.0%5,1559.1%8391.4%127
Grayson 28.8%1,40063.8%3,0947.4%3590.0%0
Greene 32.1%1,71957.3%3,06910.0%5340.6%30
Greensville 60.1%1,72435.3%1,0124.5%1300.1%4
Halifax 39.0%3,90954.2%5,4326.2%6220.6%59
Hampton 66.6%24,63128.1%10,3845.1%1,9020.1%54
Hanover 28.0%10,86260.3%23,4159.9%3,8601.8%683
Harrisonburg 52.1%4,19040.3%3,2367.1%5720.5%39
Henrico 51.2%53,13238.0%39,4009.4%9,7091.4%1,448
Henry 33.7%4,55859.3%8,0246.8%9170.3%34
Highland 30.9%27961.7%5577.0%630.4%4
Hopewell 46.0%2,49945.1%2,4468.4%4560.5%28
Isle of Wight 39.8%4,84353.8%6,5476.2%7480.2%24
James City 42.1%11,34451.1%13,7566.4%1,7220.3%94
King and Queen 44.1%96847.8%1,0517.1%1561.0%22
King George 34.3%2,28959.8%3,9855.7%3820.2%12
King William 31.9%1,67156.8%2,97610.4%5430.9%48
Lancaster 39.4%1,78652.2%2,3677.3%3291.2%55
Lee 24.6%1,18073.1%3,5072.1%1010.2%8
Lexington 61.6%93632.9%4994.3%651.3%19
Loudoun 49.6%44,36945.2%40,4645.0%4,5020.2%205
Louisa 35.6%3,54654.1%5,3819.8%9720.5%54
Lunenburg 41.7%1,39750.9%1,7057.0%2340.3%11
Lynchburg 39.9%7,92353.6%10,6326.0%1,1880.5%109
Madison 34.8%1,57555.5%2,5109.3%4200.4%17
Manassas 48.7%4,01346.5%3,8284.6%3810.2%19
Manassas Park 53.7%1,14241.8%8884.4%930.1%3
Martinsville 50.8%1,72341.6%1,4117.1%2400.5%18
Mathews 34.2%1,19458.6%2,0446.1%2141.0%35
Mecklenburg 40.2%3,03855.9%4,2263.5%2630.4%27
Middlesex 35.1%1,37554.4%2,13110.0%3910.5%21
Montgomery 45.8%10,68943.4%10,13310.3%2,3940.6%133
Nelson 47.0%2,52343.1%2,3149.3%4970.7%35
New Kent 29.0%2,12059.6%4,36510.5%7661.0%70
Newport News 59.1%25,08534.9%14,8035.8%2,4440.2%87
Norfolk 68.5%31,70825.2%11,6545.8%2,7030.4%195
Northampton 51.8%2,04840.2%1,5897.6%3010.3%12
Northumberland 37.5%1,96154.0%2,8237.5%3941.0%53
Norton 39.7%34655.3%4824.2%370.7%6
Nottoway 43.9%1,75647.5%1,8998.2%3270.5%19
Orange 36.3%3,62955.6%5,5617.7%7670.4%38
Page 32.9%2,00161.7%3,7545.1%3130.3%21
Patrick 26.8%1,37369.3%3,5533.7%1910.1%7
Petersburg 87.5%7,2609.6%7982.7%2230.2%19
Pittsylvania 29.7%5,41964.0%11,6826.0%1,0900.4%64
Poquoson 23.6%1,04067.7%2,9878.5%3770.2%11
Portsmouth 68.1%17,67126.1%6,7765.5%1,4280.3%78
Powhatan 22.8%2,32766.2%6,7489.8%9951.2%127
Prince Edward 50.1%2,67442.2%2,2527.3%3890.4%23
Prince George 38.4%3,58053.8%5,0117.2%6740.5%51
Prince William 51.9%50,44143.7%42,4314.2%4,0840.2%160
Pulaski 32.0%2,58158.5%4,7208.8%7130.6%48
Radford 46.6%1,36442.9%1,2549.8%2870.6%19
Rappahannock 44.2%1,29051.3%1,4994.2%1230.3%8
Richmond County 36.3%83656.3%1,2956.5%1500.9%20
Richmond 73.4%42,95716.8%9,8548.9%5,2260.9%517
Roanoke County 31.8%9,84458.2%18,0408.8%2,7181.2%371
Roanoke 53.8%11,71435.7%7,7869.6%2,0990.8%182
Rockbridge 36.2%2,43154.2%3,6408.8%5880.9%61
Rockingham 25.9%5,72567.6%14,9686.0%1,3170.5%118
Russell 31.6%1,91464.8%3,9203.3%2010.3%16
Salem 32.4%2,32456.0%4,01910.2%7321.4%101
Scott 21.9%1,15875.6%4,0012.3%1240.2%10
Shenandoah 30.7%3,56563.3%7,3455.6%6490.4%44
Smyth 30.6%2,30764.8%4,8804.3%3230.3%22
Southampton 44.7%2,29550.3%2,5784.6%2370.4%19
Spotsylvania 38.5%12,22056.0%17,7555.2%1,6570.3%98
Stafford 40.0%13,65754.5%18,5955.1%1,7560.3%113
Staunton 47.2%3,05844.3%2,8697.8%5030.6%42
Suffolk 54.2%13,13240.9%9,9064.7%1,1430.2%59
Surry 58.8%1,57636.5%9774.3%1160.3%9
Sussex 56.5%1,83438.8%1,2594.4%1440.3%9
Tazewell 23.3%2,35873.9%7,4902.7%2750.1%12
Virginia Beach 45.6%49,35747.6%51,4946.5%7,0230.4%379
Warren 35.0%3,39260.5%5,8734.3%4160.2%21
Washington 27.2%3,93669.0%9,9893.6%5200.3%40
Waynesboro 38.3%1,91851.9%2,5989.2%4600.6%30
Westmoreland 47.4%2,11547.4%2,1164.9%2170.4%17
Williamsburg 63.0%2,74830.6%1,3375.8%2540.6%25
Winchester 46.3%2,63147.5%2,7025.7%3260.4%25
Wise 26.4%2,19670.0%5,8303.3%2730.3%25
Wythe 26.6%2,04964.4%4,9678.3%6410.7%55
York 36.7%7,74556.4%11,9236.7%1,4180.2%43
Virginia counties shift 2009-2013 gubernatorial.svg
Virginia counties trend 2009-2013 gubernatorial.svg

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Cuccinelli won 7 of 11 congressional districts, while McAuliffe won 4, including one held by a Republican. [161]

DistrictCuccinelliMcAuliffeRepresentative
1st 52.36%41.56% Rob Wittman
2nd 46.16%47.13% Scott Rigell
3rd 19.09%75.45% Robert C. Scott
4th 48.07%45.29% Randy Forbes
5th 51.43%41.3% Robert Hurt
6th 57.82%35.02% Bob Goodlatte
7th 51.81%38.24% Eric Cantor
8th 26.64%68.13% Jim Moran
9th 61.11%32.23% Morgan Griffith
10th 47.88%46.96% Frank Wolf
11th 34.75%60.28% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

The result was somewhat surprising because many polls showed McAuliffe with a larger margin of victory over Cuccinelli than he ended up with. The Libertarian candidate was seen as having a large impact on the polls, his presence complicating them and adding "uncertainty to the ballot test". The polling for the lieutenant governor and attorney general elections, which did not feature a third-party candidate, was much more accurate. [162] Although Sarvis also under-performed, this best result for a third-party candidate in Virginia since 1965.

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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References

  1. ↑ Virginia Department of Elections (2016). "Registration/Turnout Statistics". The Commonwealth of Virginia. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved July 25, 2016.
  2. ↑ "Official List of Statewide Office Candidates" (PDF). Virginia State Board of Elections . Archived from the original (PDF) on August 13, 2013. Retrieved August 27, 2013.
  3. ↑ "McDonnell wins Virginia governor's race" Archived November 9, 2012, at the Wayback Machine , The Washington Post, November 3, 2009
  4. ↑ Meola, Olympia (November 6, 2013). "McAuliffe edges Cuccinelli to win governor's race". Richmond Times Dispatch. Archived from the original on February 20, 2019. Retrieved November 6, 2013.
  5. ↑ Will Virginia elect its first Governor in nearly 50 years with less than 50% of the vote? Archived October 16, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ↑ https://newsadvance.com/news/local/bedford-reversion-to-town-becomes-official-today/article_5dcbc886-e1e9-11e2-a412-001a4bcf6878.html
  7. ↑ Kumar, Aita (August 16, 2011). "Cuccinelli says he may challenge Warner for U.S. Senate in 2014". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on January 8, 2012.
  8. 1 2 Catanese, David (December 1, 2011). "Cuccinelli: 'I have decided to run for governor'". Politico . Archived from the original on January 4, 2012.
  9. ↑ Kumar, Anita (December 1, 2011). "Ken Cuccinelli announces he will run for Va. governor in 2013". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on May 29, 2012. Retrieved December 3, 2012.
  10. ↑ Michael Sluss (November 28, 2012). "Could Bolling run for governor as an independent?". The Roanoke Times . Retrieved December 3, 2012.
  11. ↑ Burns, Alexander (March 12, 2013). "Bill Bolling rejects run as independent in Virginia governor's race". Politico . Retrieved March 27, 2013.
  12. 1 2 Delesline, Nate (August 19, 2013). "Bolling: Race for governor could discourage moderate and independent voters". The Daily Progress . Retrieved August 28, 2013.
  13. ↑ Kumar, Anita (March 22, 2012). "Cuccinelli files papers for gubernatorial run". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
  14. ↑ "Ken Cuccinelli nominated for governor by Virginia GOP". WJLA ABC 7. Associated Press. May 18, 2013. Archived from the original on December 9, 2013. Retrieved July 27, 2013.
  15. ↑ "Lieutenant Governor Bolling to exit Va. gov race". Politico. November 27, 2012.
  16. ↑ Walker, Julian (November 13, 2012). "George Allen rules out future runs for political office". The Virginian-Pilot . Retrieved November 28, 2012.
  17. ↑ Burns, Alexander (February 25, 2013). "Business leaders seek savior in Virginia governor's race". Politico. Retrieved March 27, 2013.
  18. ↑ Walker, Julian (October 2, 2012). "McWaters says 'no' to governor run, undecided on LG". The Virginian-Pilot . Archived from the original on October 10, 2015. Retrieved October 21, 2012.
  19. ↑ "McAuliffe emails: 'I plan on running for Governor of Virginia in 2013'". Politico. November 8, 2012. Retrieved November 9, 2012.
  20. ↑ Walker, Julian (April 2, 2013). "McAuliffe named Dem governor nominee, 4 others make ballot". The Virginian-Pilot. Archived from the original on May 22, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  21. ↑ Kumar, Anita (March 5, 2010). "House Minority Leader Armstrong looks to run statewide in 2013". The Washington Post . Retrieved October 22, 2013.
  22. ↑ Sluss, Michael (December 3, 2012). "Former Del. Ward Armstrong won't run statewide in 2013". The Roanoke Times . Retrieved October 22, 2013.
  23. ↑ Pershing, Ben (December 5, 2012). "Tom Perriello says he won't run for Va. governor". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 3, 2018.
  24. ↑ Walker, Julian (May 17, 2012). "Fairfax Sen. Petersen (D) won't run for governor in '13". The Virginian-Pilot . Retrieved May 18, 2012.
  25. ↑ Simpson, Ian (November 20, 2012). "Senator Mark Warner says won't run for Virginia governor". Reuters. Retrieved December 3, 2012.
  26. ↑ Hinkle, Bart (June 23, 2013). "Yes, Virginia, there is a Door No. 3". Richmond Times-Dispatch . Retrieved June 23, 2013.
  27. ↑ Montoni, Marc (April 4, 2013). "LPVA Calls Special Convention for April 21". Libertarian Party of Virginia. Retrieved April 27, 2013.
  28. ↑ Lesiak, Krzysztof (April 22, 2013). "Robert Sarvis Receives Libertarian Party of Virginia Nomination for Governor in 2013". Independent Political Report. Retrieved April 27, 2013.
  29. 1 2 Winger, Richard (June 12, 2013). "Rob Sarvis, Libertarian Candidate for Governor of Virginia, Submits 18,000 Signatures". Ballot Access News . Retrieved June 15, 2013.
  30. ↑ "Libertarian Candidate Robert Sarvis Makes the Ballot in Virginia Governor's Race". Charlottesville Newsplex. June 26, 2013. Retrieved June 26, 2013.
  31. ↑ "Parmele for governor independent". Parmele for Governor. Archived from the original on August 27, 2013. Retrieved August 26, 2013.
  32. ↑ "Va. Beach's Parmele starts write-in campaign". The Virginia Pilot . August 20, 2013. Archived from the original on August 22, 2013. Retrieved August 26, 2013.
  33. ↑ "Candidate says blacks bring racism on selves". The Virginia Pilot . October 26, 2005. Retrieved August 26, 2013.
  34. ↑ "State House District 082". Virginia State Board of Elections . November 8, 2005. Archived from the original on October 2, 2013. Retrieved August 26, 2013.
  35. ↑ "About Tareq". Salahi for Governor. Crash The Vote: Tareq Salahi for Governor. Archived from the original on January 21, 2013. Retrieved January 15, 2013.
  36. ↑ Haines, Errin (January 14, 2013). "Salahi announces independent run for Va. governor". Virginia Politics. Retrieved January 15, 2013.
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