2018 United States Senate election in Virginia

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout59.14% Decrease2.svg
  Tim Kaine 116th official portrait.jpg Corey Stewart 8 by 10 crop.jpg
Nominee Tim Kaine Corey Stewart
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,910,3701,374,313
Percentage57.00%41.01%

2018 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate Election in Virginia by Congressional District.svg
VA 2018 US Senate election results by precinct.svg
Kaine:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Stewart:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Tim Kaine
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.

Contents

The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson. [1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Freitas
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State senators
State delegates
Local Officials
Notable Individuals
Party leadership
Organizations
News Publications
  • Arlington Sun Gazette [57]
  • The Reagan Battalion [58]
  • 71 Republic [59]
E. W. Jackson
Cabinet-level officials
U.S. governors
Statewide office holders
Local officials
  • Suzy Kelly, Chesapeake city councilwoman, chairman of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, CEO of Jo-Kell
Notable individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Nick
Freitas
E. W.
Jackson
Corey
Stewart
OtherUndecided
Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) May 14–18, 2018355± 5.2%9%5%32%
Christopher Newport University February 5–28, 2018422± 2.5%6%7%16%5% [64] 66%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dave
Brat
Corey
Stewart
Scott
Taylor
OtherUndecided
University of Mary Washington September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%11%15%20%12%38%
867 RV± 4.1%9%12%20%9%45%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Stewart--70-80%
Stewart--60-70%
Stewart--50-60%
Stewart--40-50%
Stewart--<40%
Tie
Freitas--<40%
Freitas--40-50%
Freitas--50-60%
Freitas--60-70%
Freitas--70-80% Virginia U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Stewart—70–80%
  Stewart—60–70%
  Stewart—50–60%
  Stewart—40–50%
  Stewart—<40%
  Tie
  Freitas—<40%
  Freitas—40–50%
  Freitas—50–60%
  Freitas—60–70%
  Freitas—70–80%
Republican primary results [65]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Corey Stewart 136,610 44.87%
Republican Nick Freitas131,32143.14%
Republican Earl Jackson, Sr.36,50811.99%
Total votes304,439 100.00%

Third party candidates

General election

The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota. [71] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [72] Safe DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [73] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [74] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [75] Likely DJuly 9, 2018
CNN [76] Safe DJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [77] Safe DAugust 14, 2018

Debates/Townhalls

Host
network/sponsors
DateLink(s)Participants
Tim
Kaine (D)
Corey
Stewart (R)
Matt
Waters (L)
PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association July 21, 2018 InvitedInvited
Hampton University/Liberty University September 20, 2018 InvitedInvited
WRC-TV September 26, 2018 InvitedInvited
Liberty University October 3, 2018 InvitedInvited

Endorsements

Corey Stewart (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Notable individuals
Tim Kaine (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Matt Waters (L)
Local Officials
  • Joe Walton, Libertarian nominee for VA-07 in 2018 and former chairman of the Powhatan County Board of Supervisors [109]
Party Leadership
Notable Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Corey
Stewart (R)
Matt
Waters (L)
OtherUndecided
University of Mary Washington/SSRS September 4–9, 2018512 LV± 5.8%52%36%5%0%4%
704 RV± 5.0%51%33%5%1%7%
801 A± 4.6%49%30%6%1%9%
Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) August 22–24, 20181,119± 2.8%50%46%4%
Roanoke College August 12–19, 2018512± 4.3%51%34%4%11%
Virginia Commonwealth University July 10–30, 2018757± 3.6%49%26%5%20%
Quinnipiac University June 21–25, 20181,082± 3.7%54%36%0%9%
Roanoke College May 20–30, 2018555± 4.2%44%33%23%
Christopher Newport University February 5–28, 20181,562± 2.5%56%32%1%11%
University of Mary Washington/PSRAI September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%53%36%7%
867 RV± 4.1%54%39%1%4%
Hypothetical polling
with Nick Freitas
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Nick
Freitas (R)
OtherUndecided
Roanoke College May 20–30, 2018555± 4.2%45%30%25%
Christopher Newport University February 5–28, 20181,562± 2.5%56%33%1%10%
with E. W. Jackson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
E. W.
Jackson (R)
OtherUndecided
Roanoke College May 20–30, 2018555± 4.2%45%30%25%
Christopher Newport University February 5–28, 20181,562± 2.5%56%32%1%11%
with Dave Brat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Dave
Brat (R)
Undecided
University of Mary Washington September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%54%36%7%
867 RV± 4.1%54%41%3%
with Barbara Comstock
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Barbara
Comstock (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing March 14–19, 20173,097± 1.6%53%41%6%
with Carly Fiorina
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Carly
Fiorina (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University April 6–10, 20171,115± 2.9%57%33%7%
Gravis Marketing March 14–19, 20173,097± 1.6%53%41%7%
Quinnipiac University February 10–15, 2017989± 3.1%57%36%2%5%
with Laura Ingraham
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Laura
Ingraham (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University April 6–10, 20171,115± 2.9%56%35%7%
Quinnipiac University February 10–15, 2017989± 3.1%56%36%2%7%
with Scott Taylor
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Scott
Taylor (R)
Undecided
University of Mary Washington September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%52%37%7%
867 RV± 4.1%53%41%4%

Results

Kaine won the election by a wide margin. [117]

Results by House of Delegates 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia by House of Delegates Districts.svg
Results by House of Delegates
United States Senate election in Virginia, 2018 [118]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tim Kaine (incumbent) 1,910,370 57.00% +4.17%
Republican Corey Stewart 1,374,31341.01%-5.91%
Libertarian Matt Waters61,5651.84%N/A
Write-in 5,1250.15%N/A
Total votes3,351,373 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Related Research Articles

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Nicholas J. Freitas is an American politician and social media influencer. A Republican, he has been a member of the Virginia House of Delegates since 2016. He unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2018, losing in the primary election to Corey Stewart. He was the Republican nominee in the 2020 election to represent Virginia's 7th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives, which he narrowly lost to Abigail Spanberger, the incumbent Democratic congresswoman. Before entering politics, he served in the United States Army.

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References

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  64. Ivan Raiklin* 1%, Other 4%. *Failed to qualify.
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  87. Jones, Doug. "Louise and I were honored to host my friend and colleague @timkaine at our home last night. Tim is a true public servant and a strong, steady leader we need to keep in the Senate!". Twitter.
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  89. Warner, Mark. ".@TimKaine is a uniter not a divider. He's a heck of a Senator, and I'm proud to call him my friend. Let's go out there and get him re-elected". Twitter.
  90. Perriello, Tom. "Feeling ⁦@timkaine⁩ 2018 after that crushing debate yesterday! #TK4VA". Twitter.
  91. McEachin, Donald. "I hope to see @Vangie4Congress, @ElaineLuriaVA, @LeslieCockburn, @JenniferForVA, @SpanbergerVA07, @flacc4congress, & @JenniferWexton join @timkaine, @markwarnerva, @ElectConnolly, @BobbyScott4VA3, @DonBeyerVA and me in Congress! #BlueWave". Twitter.
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  94. Northam, Ralph. "Virginians are looking for leaders with a moral compass—that's my friend @timkaine all the way. He speaks to the best in us, his opponent speaks to the worst. I'm ready to work hard to send him back to the Senate— are you ready to join us?". Twitter.
  95. Fairfax, Justin. "#BlueWave2018! Virginia, let's re-elect @timkaine, @BobbyScott4VA3, @Donald_McEachin, & @ElectConnolly — & elect @Vangie4Congress, @ElaineLuriaVA, @LeslieCockburn, @JenniferForVA, @SpanbergerVA07, @flacc4congress, & @JenniferWexton. #WeRiseTogether". Twitter.
  96. McAuliffe, Terry. ".@timkaine is a great Senator and an even better man. @DSMcAuliffe and I will be with Tim and Anne every step of the way. Game on!". Twitter.
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