2018 United States Senate election in Florida

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Florida
Flag of Florida.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout52.0% Decrease2.svg [1]
  Official Portrait of Senator Rick Scott (cropped).jpg NASA Administrator Bill Nelson Official Portrait (NHQ202105170001).jpg
Nominee Rick Scott Bill Nelson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote4,099,5054,089,472
Percentage50.05%49.93%

2018 United States Senate election in Florida results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Florida results by congressional district.svg
FL Senate 2018 Precinct Results.svg
Scott:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Nelson:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      50%     No data

U.S. Senator before election

Bill Nelson
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Rick Scott
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican Governor Rick Scott. The election was the closest Senate race in the state's history. [2]

Contents

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. The results showed that Nelson was narrowly trailing Scott, but the margin remained below 0.5%, triggering an automatic recount under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities. Following the recount, Florida elections officials confirmed Scott's victory on November 18, 2018. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast, or 0.12%. Both in terms of raw vote margin and by percentage of difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott's victory marked the first time since the Reconstruction era in 1875 that Republicans have held both Senate seats in Florida. [3]

Background

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson sought re-election in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida. The election was expected to be a key race in determining which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2019. [4]

As of the second quarter of 2018, Nelson had a 44%-34% approval rating among his constituents. [5] Despite having won re-election in 2012 by a 13% margin, Nelson was considered potentially vulnerable; he had been the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida since 2011, and his previous opponents, Connie Mack IV and Katherine Harris, were seen as much weaker challengers than Scott. Additionally, he was one of 10 incumbent Democratic senators running in states that had been carried by Donald Trump in 2016. Nelson was described as a "low-key centrist" that might not be able to energize progressive voters. [6]

After being encouraged by President Trump to enter the Senate race, [7] Republican governor of Florida Rick Scott announced his candidacy on April 9, 2018. [8] As of the first quarter of 2018, Scott held a 54%-35% approval rating [9] among his constituents, with a majority of Florida voters believing the state was moving in the right direction under Scott's administration. Republican President Donald Trump also held a positive approval rating of 49%-47% in Florida as of August 2018. [10] Trump had won the state in 2016 by 1.2% over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Scott had put more than $86 million of his own money into his successful 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial bids. [11]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was considered merely a formality, as Governor Scott's lone challenger was a perennial candidate who was running for Senate seats in eight other Republican primaries across the country. No other notable Republicans entered the race before or after Scott announced his candidacy. [12]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rocky
De La Fuente
Rick
Scott
Undecided
Gravis Marketing August 21–25, 2018579± 4.1%12%73%15%
Gravis Marketing August 21–22, 2018321± 5.5%12%73%15%
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018905± 3.3%16%74%10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Augustus Sol
Invictus
David
Jolly
Carlos
López-Cantera
Tom
Rooney
Rick
Scott
Marcia R.
Thorne
OtherUndecided
Saint Leo University November 19–24, 20171661%8%54%1%4%33%
Saint Leo University November 27–30, 20161383%6%3%3%41%11%33%

Results

County results
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Scott
70-80%
80-90%
90-100% 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida, Republican Primary.svg
County results
  Scott
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Scott 1,456,187 88.61%
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 187,20911.39%
Total votes1,643,396 100.00%

Democratic primary

As both of Senator Nelson's primary opponents failed to qualify for the ballot, no Democratic primary was held. [12]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Failed to qualify

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

American Independent Party

Candidates

Withdrew

Independents and write-ins

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

General election

According to The Cook Political Report, the race was one of the 10 most competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation. [60] It was also described as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country. [61] [62]

Scott's involvement in a large Medicare fraud case stirred controversy during the general election campaign. [63] [64] Scott responded with ads accusing Nelson of having cut Medicare benefits and stolen from Medicare; fact-checkers found that both of Scott's assertions were "mostly false." [65] [63] During the campaign, Scott characterize[s] Nelson as a "socialist"; PolitiFact described the assertion as "pants-on-fire" false. [66]

Gun control was a key issue in this race. The election came less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, the deadliest school shooting in American history. Nelson also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, asserting that —"nothing was done" by Scott's administration. In the wake of Stoneman Douglas, Scott raised the age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21, set a three-day waiting period to purchase assault-style weapons, and banned bump stocks--moves that Nelson described as "doing the bare...minimum". The National Rifle Association of America opposed Scott's legislation. [67]

Environmental issues also took on a prominent role in the race. Scott and his administration had been heavily criticized for weakening regulations designed to protect the environment, even going as far as to instruct the FDEP not to use the words "climate change" or "global warming" in official reports. [68] Because of this, Scott was blamed for the state's worsening algae blooms, even being dubbed "Red Tide Rick" on social media. Scott blamed the toxic blooms on Nelson and on Congress' general inefficiency. [69]

During the campaign, Scott sought to avoid mentioning President Trump and at times criticized or distanced himself from actions of the Trump administration. Prior to the campaign, he had used his friendship with Trump to boost his profile, had been an early and vocal supporter of Trump in 2016, [70] [71] and reportedly spoke to President Trump every one or two weeks. [70] Trump endorsed Scott in his Senate bid. [71]

Both Nelson's and Scott's responses to Hurricanes Irma and Michael (which made landfall in September 2017 and October 2018, respectively) were closely watched during the campaign season. [72]

Scott made Nelson's age an issue in the campaign. [73]

Debates

Endorsements

Rick Scott (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Statewide and territorial officials
State and territorial legislators
Sheriffs
Mayors
Municipal officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Bill Nelson (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
Statewide and territorial officials
State legislators
Mayors
Other government officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [184] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [185] Tilt DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [186] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
NYT [187] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [188] TossupNovember 5, 2018
CNN [189] TossupNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [190] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [191] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico [192] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [193] Lean DNovember 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Rick Scott (R)$68,801,011$66,496,248$2,304,762
Bill Nelson (D) Incumbent$28,294,713$25,482,421$3,806,614
Source: Federal Election Commission [194]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Rick
Scott (R)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 20181,484± 2.5%47%49%4%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%48%48%
St. Pete Polls November 3–4, 20183,088± 1.8%50%46%4%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%45%49%
Quinnipiac University October 29 – November 4, 20181,142± 3.5%51%44%0%5%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018784± 3.7%50%45%3%3%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%45%47%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%47%46%7%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC) November 1–2, 20181,23650%48%
St. Pete Polls November 1–2, 20182,733± 1.9%48%49%3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%46%48%
Marist College October 30 – November 2, 2018595 LV± 5.0%50%46%<1%4%
917 RV± 4.1%50%45%<1%5%
Gravis Marketing October 29 – November 2, 2018753± 3.6%50%47%4%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%45%50%
St. Pete Polls October 30–31, 20182,470± 2.0%49%47%3%
Targoz Market Research October 28–31, 201855845%49%6%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%45%48%
MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance [lower-alpha 1] October 25–31, 20201,00541%43%17% [lower-alpha 2]
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29–30, 20182,543± 1.9%49%47%4%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018696± 3.7%50%50%
HarrisX Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%43%44%
Cygnal (R) October 27–29, 2018495± 4.4%50%48%2%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018781 LV± 4.3%49%47%0%2%
887 RV± 4.0%46%46%0%5%
Suffolk University Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 25–28, 2018500± 4.4%45%43%10%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 23–27, 2018737± 4.0%48%44%8%
University of North Florida Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 23–26, 20181,051± 3.0%47%46%<1%7%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018991± 4.0%46%46%1%6%
Ipsos October 17–25, 20181,069± 3.4%49%44%3%4%
Gravis Marketing October 22–23, 2018773± 3.5%49%45%6%
Strategic Research Associates Archived October 25, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 16–23, 2018800± 3.5%46%45%9%
Saint Leo University October 16–22, 2018698± 3.5%47%38%6%9%
St. Pete Polls October 20–21, 20181,575± 2.5%48%49%3%
Florida Atlantic University October 18–21, 2018704± 3.6%41%42%4%13%
SurveyUSA October 18–21, 2018665± 5.0%49%41%4%6%
Quinnipiac University October 17–21, 20181,161± 3.5%52%46%0%2%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D) October 17–20, 2018600± 4.0%45%47%9%
CNN/SSRS October 16–20, 2018759 LV± 4.2%50%45%0%3%
872 RV± 3.9%49%45%0%4%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott) October 14–18, 20182,200± 2.1%46%51%3%
St. Pete Polls October 15–16, 20181,974± 2.2%47%49%4%
Florida Southern College October 1–5, 2018476± 4.5%44%46%6%4%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS September 19 – October 2, 2018522± 6.0%48%45%1%6%
St. Pete Polls September 29–30, 20182,313± 2.0%47%47%6%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 28–30, 2018779± 3.5%48%44%9%
Strategic Research Associates Archived November 22, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 17–30, 2018800± 3.5%45%44%11%
Mason-Dixon September 24–27, 2018815± 3.5%47%46%7%
Quinnipiac University September 20–24, 2018888± 4.0%53%46%0%1%
Cherry Communications September 19–24, 2018622± 4.4%48%46%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018600 LV± 4.7%48%45%1%6%
829 RV± 4.0%48%43%1%7%
University of North Florida Archived September 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 17–19, 201860345%45%1%9%
Florida Atlantic University September 13–16, 2018850± 3.3%41%42%5%11%
Ipsos September 5–12, 20181,000± 4.0%45%46%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports September 10–11, 2018800± 3.5%45%44%5%6%
SurveyUSA September 7–9, 2018634± 5.3%44%46%4%7%
Quinnipiac University August 30 – September 3, 2018785± 4.3%49%49%0%2%
Gravis Marketing August 29–30, 20181,225± 2.8%47%47%6%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.) August 29–30, 2018743± 4.0%46%45%8%
St. Pete Polls August 29–30, 20181,755± 2.3%47%47%5%
Florida Atlantic University August 16–20, 2018800± 3.4%39%45%17%
Saint Leo University August 10–16, 2018500± 4.5%36%40%8%15%
Mason-Dixon July 24–25, 2018625± 4.0%44%47%9%
Florida Atlantic University July 20–21, 2018800± 3.4%40%44%17%
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3%47%43%10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 20181,080± 5.0%46%49%5%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018839 LV41%46%6%6%
996 RV± 3.5%40%42%6%9%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018947± 3.9%49%45%1%5%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.) June 18–19, 20181,308± 3.2%48%46%7%
Gravis Marketing Archived June 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine May 31 – June 15, 20181,251± 2.8%50%40%10%
Cherry Communications May 25 – June 4, 2018605± 4.0%45%48%5%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018506± 4.5%34%40%8%18%
Morning Consult May 29–30, 20181,199± 3.0%39%40%
Florida Atlantic University May 4–7, 2018728 LV45%45%
1,000 RV± 3.0%40%44%16%
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine) April 10–11, 2018661± 3.9%50%44%6%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1%44%40%16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC) Archived April 13, 2018, at the Wayback Machine March 10–13, 2018800± 3.4%46%47%6%
Clearview Research March 1–7, 2018750± 3.6%41%43%16%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 20181,806± 5.0%53%43%4%
Quinnipiac University February 23–26, 20181,156± 3.6%46%42%2%9%
Florida Atlantic University February 23–25, 2018800± 3.6%40%38%22%
Saint Leo University February 18–24, 2018500± 4.5%35%42%9%15%
Gravis Marketing Archived November 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2%44%40%16%
Florida Atlantic University February 1–4, 2018750± 3.7%34%44%22%
University of North Florida Archived April 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine January 29 – February 4, 2018429± 4.7%48%42%2%7%
Mason-Dixon January 30 – February 1, 2018625± 4.0%45%44%11%
Dixie Strategies January 9–10, 2018785± 3.5%38%35%27%
Gravis Marketing Archived December 28, 2017, at the Wayback Machine December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%44%39%17%
Saint Leo University November 19–24, 2017500± 4.5%32%42%8%18%
Mason-Dixon October 17–19, 2017625± 4.0%44%44%12%
University of North Florida Archived March 7, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 11–17, 2017706± 3.4%37%36%7%20%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017615± 4.0%45%47%8%
Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2017500± 4.5%33%35%11%21%
Florida Atlantic University August 24–26, 2017800± 4.0%42%40%18%
Gravis Marketing Archived April 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine April 4–10, 20171,243± 2.8%56%28%16%
Gravis Marketing Archived April 4, 2017, at the Wayback Machine March 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6%52%37%12%
Cherry Communications March 6–14, 2017600± 4.0%48%42%10%
Saint Leo University March 3–11, 2017507± 4.5%39%34%10%17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-FHA) March 1–5, 2017600± 4.0%46%44%10%
Mason-Dixon February 24–28, 2017625± 4.0%46%41%13%
University of North Florida February 13–26, 2017957± 3.1%44%38%3%12%
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 20163,250± 2.4%51%38%11%
Public Policy Polling September 4–6, 2016744± 3.6%45%41%14%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4%46%42%12%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2%47%43%10%
Hypothetical polling
with Pam Bondi
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Pam
Bondi (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 20163,250± 2.4%50%35%15%

Initial results and recount

The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. Because Scott's lead over Nelson was less than 0.5% of the vote, an automatic recount was triggered under Florida law. [195] [196] A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities. [197]

Nelson and Scott traded accusations of voter suppression and voter fraud. [198] Two lawsuits were filed by the Scott campaign after the election against the Supervisor of Elections in both Palm Beach and Broward Counties while the Nelson campaign filed one against the secretary of state in Florida. On November 9, the Scott campaign won both of their lawsuits. [199] [200] Notably, election officials in Broward County had to receive police protection after accusations of voter fraud were made by a few members of Congress. [201]

Additionally, a number of mail-in ballots were found in a mail distribution center in the city of Opa-locka three days after the election. The Miami-Dade Elections Department considered the votes uncountable because they had not arrived at the department by the time the polls closed. [202]

The deadline for all ballots to be machine-counted was 3:00 pm EST on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The revised totals triggered a statewide hand-recount of rejected ballots. At least three counties (Broward, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach County) missed the deadline. [203] [204] During machine counting, 846 votes from Hillsborough County were lost, presumably due to a power outage. [205] [203] Machines purchased from Sequoia Voting Systems broke down, creating delays in the count of Palm Beach County votes. [206]

Results

Florida elections officials announced on November 18, 2018 that Scott had prevailed. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast. Nelson then conceded the race to Scott. [207]

United States Senate election in Florida, 2018 [208]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rick Scott 4,099,505 50.05% +7.82%
Democratic Bill Nelson (incumbent)4,089,47249.93%-5.30%
Write-in 1,0280.01%N/A
Total votes8,190,005 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

Final results from Florida Division of Elections. [208]

CountyRick Scott (Republican)Bill Nelson (Democratic)Other (Write-in)Total
Votes%Votes%Votes%
Alachua          40,59935.27%              74,49364.71%200.02%     115,112
Baker            8,57981.51%                1,94518.48%10.01%        10,525
Bay          46,68173.62%              16,72326.37%70.01%        63,411
Bradford            7,57672.46%                2,87927.53%10.01%        10,456
Brevard        160,30556.95%            121,11243.03%560.02%     281,473
Broward        211,39730.92%            472,23969.08%00.00%     683,636
Calhoun            3,58677.64%                1,03322.36%00.00%          4,619
Charlotte          52,91661.20%              33,52538.78%160.02%        86,457
Citrus          48,00867.92%              22,66032.06%150.02%        70,683
Clay          65,63970.30%              27,71829.69%110.01%        93,368
Collier        101,26665.06%              54,39034.94%60.00%     155,662
Columbia          17,23469.65%                7,50530.33%60.02%        24,745
Desoto            5,50362.31%                3,32837.69%00.00%          8,831
Dixie            4,44277.06%                1,32222.94%00.00%          5,764
Duval        185,90449.14%            192,38150.85%450.01%     378,330
Escambia          75,94758.94%              52,89141.05%170.01%     128,855
Flagler          31,46759.49%              21,41940.49%110.02%        52,897
Franklin            3,40462.86%                2,01137.14%00.00%          5,415
Gadsden            6,05130.26%              13,94569.74%10.01%        19,997
Gilchrist            5,70377.74%                1,63322.26%00.00%          7,336
Glades            2,66669.74%                1,15630.24%10.03%          3,823
Gulf            4,32173.22%                1,58026.78%00.00%          5,901
Hamilton            2,85663.09%                1,67136.91%00.00%          4,527
Hardee            4,45569.93%                1,91630.07%00.00%          6,371
Hendry            5,30459.96%                3,54240.04%00.00%          8,846
Hernando          49,50161.64%              30,79838.35%140.02%        80,313
Highlands          26,28266.22%              13,39833.76%60.02%        39,686
Hillsborough        239,64145.96%            281,66154.02%720.01%     521,374
Holmes            5,91987.37%                    85612.63%00.00%          6,775
Indian River          44,79860.53%              29,19539.45%110.01%        74,004
Jackson          10,79167.55%                5,18232.44%10.01%        15,974
Jefferson            3,69950.48%                3,62649.49%20.03%          7,327
Lafayette            2,19577.89%                    62322.11%00.00%          2,818
Lake          93,53760.36%              61,40239.63%150.01%     154,954
Lee        174,31660.27%            114,85739.71%410.01%     289,214
Leon          48,76734.86%              91,09765.12%340.02%     139,898
Levy          11,65868.66%                5,31931.33%30.02%        16,980
Liberty            2,07676.66%                    63223.34%00.00%          2,708
Madison            4,18454.99%                3,42545.01%00.00%          7,609
Manatee          94,39057.80%              68,87742.18%280.02%     163,295
Marion          95,59261.81%              59,02538.16%440.03%     154,661
Martin          46,73360.35%              30,69139.63%120.02%        77,436
Miami-Dade        316,02039.43%            485,49660.57%310.00%     801,547
Monroe          18,03549.97%              18,05150.02%40.01%        36,090
Nassau          31,79573.09%              11,70326.90%30.01%        43,501
Okaloosa          60,92472.66%              22,90227.31%190.02%        83,845
Okeechobee            7,72768.84%                3,49631.15%10.01%        11,224
Orange        180,76338.04%            294,30861.94%700.01%     475,141
Osceola          47,89841.64%              67,12358.35%80.01%     115,029
Palm Beach        244,85041.58%            344,00858.42%360.01%     588,894
Pasco        121,21257.53%              89,44742.45%510.02%     210,710
Pinellas        205,93547.37%            228,71252.60%1270.03%     434,774
Polk        138,75156.74%            105,74843.24%450.02%     244,544
Putnam          18,68966.66%                9,34433.33%50.02%        28,038
Santa Rosa          56,37474.74%              19,04725.25%100.01%        75,431
Sarasota        113,58553.94%              96,97346.05%350.02%     210,593
Seminole          97,45748.98%            101,50451.01%310.02%     198,992
St. Johns          85,03165.07%              45,63834.92%120.01%     130,681
St. Lucie          59,61248.22%              63,97851.75%340.03%     123,624
Sumter          52,86870.92%              21,67829.08%30.00%        74,549
Suwannee          11,84274.53%                4,04425.45%20.01%        15,888
Taylor            5,63871.36%                2,26328.64%00.00%          7,901
Union            3,65075.30%                1,19724.70%00.00%          4,847
Volusia        125,76255.02%            102,81944.98%00.00%     228,581
Wakulla            9,32265.69%                4,86834.31%00.00%        14,190
Walton          22,77675.26%                7,48524.73%40.01%        30,265
Washington            7,10178.38%                1,95921.62%00.00%          9,060
Total    4,099,50550.05%        4,089,47249.93%       1,0280.01%  8,190,005
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Analysis

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroupNelsonScottNo
Answer
 % of
Voters
Gender
Men4258N/A45
Women5743N/A55
Age
18–24 years old6238N/A5
25–29 years old7327N/A5
30–39 years old6238N/A10
40–49 years old4951N/A12
50–64 years old5050N/A31
65 and older4357N/A37
Race
White 4060N/A66
Black 9010N/A13
Latino 5446N/A15
Asian N/AN/AN/A2
Other6733N/A4
Race by gender
White men3268N/A31
White women4753N/A35
Black men8812N/A6
Black women919N/A8
Latino men4951N/A6
Latina women5842N/A9
Others6634N/A5
Education
High school or less4753N/A20
Some college education5149N/A25
Associate degree 4753N/A15
Bachelor's degree 4852N/A24
Advanced degree5842N/A16
Education and race
White college graduates4753N/A28
White no college degree3565N/A38
Non-white college graduates6436N/A12
Non-white no college degree7426N/A22
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5842N/A13
White women without college degrees4060N/A22
White men with college degrees3763N/A14
White men without college degrees2773N/A17
Non-whites7030N/A34
Income
Under $30,0006238N/A19
$30,000–49,9995347N/A22
$50,000–99,9995149N/A34
$100,000–199,9994852N/A19
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats 928N/A33
Republicans 991N/A37
Independents 5545N/A30
Party by gender
Democratic men9010N/A12
Democratic women937N/A21
Republican men793N/A19
Republican women1189N/A18
Independent men5050N/A14
Independent women6040N/A16
Ideology
Liberals 8911N/A22
Moderates 6238N/A39
Conservatives 1585N/A39
Marital status
Married4357N/A64
Unmarried5941N/A36
Gender by marital status
Married men3664N/A32
Married women5050N/A31
Unmarried men4852N/A14
Unmarried women6238N/A22
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5842N/A16
No4753N/A84
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 7525N/A41
Immigration 1783N/A29
Economy 2872N/A16
Gun policy 7624N/A11
Area type
Urban5644N/A42
Suburban4753N/A50
Rural3763N/A8
Source: CNN [209]

Notes

  1. The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. Includes "Refused"

See also

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  77. Rubio, Marco [@marcorubio] (April 9, 2018). "One of most important roles of senate is confirming federal judges & scotus. The road to growing the senate #GOP majority runs through #Florida Please join me in contributing to, voting for & supporting @ScottforFlorida #Sayfie" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2018 via Twitter.
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  80. Gaetz, Matt [@mattgaetz] (April 9, 2018). "So proud to have fellow swamp-drainer @FLGovScott running to #FightWashington and bring Florida solutions to this crazy town! #letsgettowork #sayfie" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2018 via Twitter.
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  85. Scott, Rick [@ScottforFlorida] (October 27, 2018). "I'm proud to announce the endorsement of former Puerto Rico congressman and San Juan Mayor Carlos Romero Barcelo! He's the 60th Puerto Rican office holder to endorse our campaign! I will fight in the Senate to Make Washington Work for all Americans" (Tweet). Retrieved October 27, 2018 via Twitter.
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  87. Bush, Jeb [@JebBush] (April 9, 2018). "Rick Scott has provided strong, conservative leadership for our state throughout his time as governor. Rick's exactly the type of leader we need in Washington right now, and I know he will represent Florida well in the U.S. Senate. @ScottforFlorida" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2018 via Twitter.
  88. Angel, Greg [@NewsGuyGreg] (April 9, 2018). "Lieutenant Governor of #PuertoRico talking in support for Gov Rick Scott for Senate. @MyNews13" (Tweet). Retrieved April 12, 2018 via Twitter.
  89. Scott, Rick [@ScottforFlorida] (November 2, 2018). "Thank you for coming to Tampa @PamBondi and @LindseyGrahamSC!" (Tweet). Retrieved November 3, 2018 via Twitter.
  90. Patronis, Jimmy (April 10, 2018). "I'm proud to support Governor Rick Scott in his mission to continue serving the people of Florida. LIKE and SHARE if you do, too!". Facebook . Retrieved June 23, 2018.
  91. Putnam, Adam [@adamputnam] (April 9, 2018). "Rick Scott is just the kind of leader we need to represent Florida in the hot, wet mess that is Washington. I'm proud to support his run for U.S. Senate" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2018 via Twitter.
  92. 1 2 JAX Alliance [@JAXAlliance] (April 26, 2018). "The @USChamber, @FLChamber and @GoodGovtPAC — the Federal Political Committee of @JAXChamber — endorse @ScottforFlorida for U.S. Senate. "I've never seen someone work so hard to bring jobs to Florida." — @DanielDavisFl" (Tweet). Retrieved October 23, 2018 via Twitter.
  93. Corcoran, Richard [@richardcorcoran] (April 9, 2018). "Gov @ScottforFlorida has spent the last 8yrs putting the priorities of every Floridian first. Tax cuts, massive job growth, and an improved Ed system will be his legacy as gov. Now we need his proven conservative leadership in D.C. I couldn't be more excited 4 this announcement" (Tweet). Retrieved April 10, 2018 via Twitter.
  94. Caldwell, Matt [@mattcaldwell_fl] (April 9, 2018). "I proudly endorse @FLGovScott in his bid to fight for Florida in the U.S. Senate. With Gov. Scott's leadership as a principled conservative, Florida has roared with jobs, shed needless taxes, and staked its claim as the best state for Americans to pursue their dreams" (Tweet). Retrieved April 13, 2018 via Twitter.
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  96. Giuliani, Rudy [@RudyGiuliani] (November 4, 2018). "Great rally for @RonDeSantisFL in Daytona. On to Boca Raton Repub. Headquarters. A great state like Fl. needs a leader who can build on Gov. Scott's success. More jobs, lower taxes, safer communities and support for our police. Vote for DeSantis for Gov. and Scott for Senate" (Tweet). Retrieved November 7, 2018 via Twitter.
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  99. Diamond and Silk [@DiamondandSilk] (August 29, 2018). "Congratulations to Gov. Rick Scott @ScottforFlorida for winning the GOP Nomination for Senate #MAGA #RedWave #Winning #ChooChoo" (Tweet). Retrieved October 24, 2018 via Twitter.
  100. Kashuv, Kyle [@KyleKashuv] (October 5, 2018). "It's time Florida relieves @SenBillNelson of his Senate seat and gives @ScottforFlorida the reins. Enough of the corruption. Enough of the political hackery" (Tweet). Retrieved October 25, 2018 via Twitter.
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  102. Petty, Ryan [@rpetty] (April 11, 2018). "I am thrilled to endorse my friend, Rick Scott for US Senate. @ScottforFlorida demonstrated true leadership in making our kids & teachers safer here in Florida. We need this same leadership in DC. Please join with me in supporting him for US Senate. #rickscottforsenate" (Tweet). Retrieved April 12, 2018 via Twitter.
  103. Pollack, Andrew [@AndrewPollackFL] (April 11, 2018). "I am proud to endorse my friend Governor Rick Scott for US Senate. @ScottforFlorida has helped me tremendously in my pursuit to make schools in America safe & secure. He signed the PS Bill 7026 that I advocated for after my daughter was killed at #MSD. He's a great man" (Tweet). Retrieved April 12, 2018 via Twitter.
  104. Pollack, Hunter [@PollackHunter] (August 1, 2018). "I have been working very closely with the Governor to establish the @Scott_Students initiative and it's already becoming a huge success! So glad to be apart of it. Please follow! #ScottForSenate" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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  114. Shapiro, Dan [@DanielBShapiro] (October 3, 2018). "So excited to be in Florida today &tomorrow to campaign for my good friend (& former boss) US Sen. Bill Nelson! He's a leader, a great fighter for Florida, a strong supporter of the US-Israel relationship, and an outstanding person. Let's keep him in the Senate!@NelsonForSenate" (Tweet). Retrieved October 5, 2018 via Twitter.
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  123. Murphy, Stephanie [@SMurphyCongress] (June 27, 2018). "The Supreme Court is a reminder of what's at stake every election: women's rights, civil rights, collective bargaining rights, LGBTQ rights, gun safety reform, immigration reform, redistricting reform & much more. Support @NelsonForSenate & VOTE EVERY TIME #FlaPol #MidtermsMatter" (Tweet). Retrieved October 21, 2018 via Twitter.
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  131. Smith, Carlos G. [@CarlosGSmith] (August 3, 2018). "Time to rid Florida of the red slime known as @FLGovScott by voting to re-elect @NelsonForSenate November 6th" (Tweet). Retrieved October 21, 2018 via Twitter.
  132. Jones, Shevrin [@ShevrinJones] (July 1, 2018). "Last night I had the awesome privilege of introducing @NelsonForSenate at #LeadBlue2018 - Senator Nelson has stood strong for us in DC and I look forward to us sending him back, and retiring @FLGovScott from politics. #BlueWave" (Tweet). Retrieved October 21, 2018 via Twitter.
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  141. Midler, Bette [@BetteMidler] (October 20, 2018). "FLORIDA!! @NelsonForSenate!! #BILLNELSON WON'T SLASH YOUR MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY, AS #RICKSCOTT IS SURE TO DO! Rick also earned $46 MILLION during his term in office...Where'd he get it? He's not sayin'!! Not worthy to serve!! VOTE BILL NELSON FOR SENATE, HE'S FOR YOU!" (Tweet). Retrieved October 23, 2018 via Twitter.
  142. Porco, Carolyn [@carolynporco] (October 16, 2018). "This morning I contributed to Bill Nelson's campaign. We need to keep scientists in government!" (Tweet). Retrieved October 27, 2018 via Twitter.
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