2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  →
Turnout64.85% Increase2.svg [1]
  Kyrsten Sinema (cropped).jpg Martha McSally official portrait cropped-2 115th congress.jpg
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,191,1001,135,200
Percentage49.96%47.61%
2018 United States Senate election in Arizona results map by county.svg
AZ-2018-sen-districts.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Arizona by State Senate District.svg
AZ Senate 2018 Precinct Results.svg
Sinema:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McSally:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018. [2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.

Contents

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018, [3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain. [4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day. [5]

The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018, [6] and McSally conceded that day. [7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.

Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees. [8] [ better source needed ]

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018. [9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9. [10] [11] [12]

Republican primary

Candidates

On the ballot

U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018 Martha McSally (39626251902).jpg
U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018 Kelli Ward (30392756898).jpg
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Martha McSally
Federal officials
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Mayors
Individuals
  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale city councilwoman [49]
Organizations
Kelli Ward
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Local officials
U.S. military personnel
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Arpaio		Martha
McSally		Kelli
Ward		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital Archived August 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine August 21–22, 2018600± 4.0%18%48%22%1%8%
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018578± 4.1%13%47%27%–12%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–25, 2018576± 4.1%15%35%27%–23%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018501± 4.4%24%36%27%–14%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018305± 5.9%18%32%19%7% [74] 23%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 19–21, 2018550± 4.2%17%38%23%2%21%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018371± 6.7%21%30%28%<1%21%
OH Predictive Insights June 11–12, 2018600± 4.0%14%39%25%–22%
Remington (R) [upper-alpha 1] May 23–24, 20182,011± 2.3%25%42%23%–10%
Magellan Strategies (R) April 11–12 and 15, 2018755± 3.6%26%36%25%6%7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018302± 5.6%22%27%36%–15%
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine January 11–15, 2018500± 4.4%22%31%19%–27%
OH Predictive Insights January 9, 2018504± 4.4%29%31%25%–15%
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 1] November 15–16, 2017500± 4.4%–38%36%–26%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017323± 5.5%–34%42%–24%
Revily (R) [upper-alpha 2] October 28–31, 2017380± 3.0%–21%32%15% [75] 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Jay Heiler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jay
Heiler		Martha
McSally		Matt
Salmon		David
Schweikert		John
Shadegg		Kelli
Ward		Undecided
Data Orbital October 26–28, 2017500± 4.4%1%19%10%5%4%26%28%
with Jeff Flake
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake		Jeff
DeWit		Nicholas
Tutora		Kelli
Ward		OtherUndecided
GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017500± 4.4%31%––58%–11%
JMC Analytics (R) August 26–27, 2017500± 4.4%21%–3%47%–29%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine August 18–19, 2017273± 5.9%28%––43%5%24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward) February 7, 2017921± 5.0%23%––30%–47%
Remington Research Group November 15–16, 20161,122± 2.9%30%38%–15%–17%
33%42%–––25%
35%35%–––30%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McSally 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Arpaio 30-40% 2018 AZ US Senate GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  McSally
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Arpaio
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Martha McSally 357,626 54.57%
Republican Kelli Ward 180,92627.61%
Republican Joe Arpaio 116,55517.79%
Write-in 1910.03%
Total votes655,298 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

On the ballot

U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018 Kyrsten Sinema (30603638257).jpg
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017 Deedra Abboud (33963983436).jpg
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017

Failed to file

Withdrew

  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher [84] [85]

Declined

Endorsements

Deedra Abboud
Organizations
Kyrsten Sinema
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Deedra
Abboud		Kyrsten
Sinema		OtherUndecided
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 25–27, 2018550± 4.2%7%63%2%29%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018260± 6.2%8%51%12% [146] 30%

Results

Results by county: Sinema 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2018 AZ US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Sinema
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 404,170 79.25%
Democratic Deedra Abboud105,80020.75%
Total votes509,970 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Removed

Results

Results by county: Green 90-100% No votes 2018 AZ US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county:
  Green
  •   90-100%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results [76]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Angela Green (write-in) 389 100.00%
Total votes389 100.00%

General election

Debates

Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally in a debate for Senate's election of 2018.png
Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [150] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [151] Tilt D (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [152] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
CNN [153] TossupOctober 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics [154] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [155] Lean D (flip)November 6, 2018
Daily Kos [156] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Fox News [157] TossupOctober 30, 2018

Endorsements

Martha McSally (R)
U.S. executive branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
State officials
Local-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Former U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D)$19,287,249$20,249,341$1,301,542
Martha McSally (R)$16,211,836$13,688,178$2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission [201]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Angela
Green (G)		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 20181,217± 2.8%47%45%–2%6%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%44%49%–––
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%46%47%–––
OH Predictive Insights November 2–3, 2018631± 3.9%49%48%0%–1%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018758± 3.7%48%49%2%–2%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%48%46%–––
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%44%45%–1%10%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%49%44%–––
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 20181,165± 2.9%47%46%––7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%48%42%–––
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 20182,166± 2.1%47%50%–2%1%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%49%42%–––
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018677± 3.7%48%52%–––
HarrisX October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%48%43%–––
FOX News October 27–29, 2018643 LV± 3.5%46%46%–3%5%
710 RV± 3.5%44%45%–4%6%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018702 LV± 4.4%47%51%–0%1%
867 RV± 4.0%45%48%–0%3%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 26–28, 2018400± 4.9%47%45%4%–5%
NBC News/Marist College October 23–27, 2018506 LV± 5.4%44%47%6%<1%3%
44%50%–2%4%
793 RV± 4.4%43%45%7%<1%5%
43%49%–2%6%
CBS News/YouGov October 23–26, 2018972± 4.1%44%47%–3%5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018799± 4.0%48%46%–3%3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018600± 4.0%52%45%1%–2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–19, 2018606± 4.2%48%46%1%–6%
Data Orbital Archived October 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 16–17, 2018600± 4.0%41%47%3%1%8%
Change Research (D) October 9–10, 2018783–44%44%––11%
CBS News/YouGov October 2–5, 2018898–44%47%–3%6%
OH Predictive Insights October 1–2, 2018600± 4.0%47%41%4%–8%
FOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018716 LV± 3.5%45%47%–2%6%
806 RV± 3.5%44%45%–2%8%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018702± 3.5%52%49%–––
Suffolk University Archived October 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 27–30, 2018500± 4.4%42%45%2%0%11%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018463 LV–41%47%––11%
610 RV–37%43%––17%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018650± 4.4%39%45%–4%13%
NBC News/Marist College September 16–20, 2018564 LV± 4.7%43%45%6%<1%6%
45%48%–<1%7%
763 RV± 4.2%41%44%6%<1%8%
44%47%–<1%9%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018761 LV± 4.3%43%50%–0%3%
854 RV± 4.1%41%48%–1%6%
Ipsos September 5–14, 20181,016± 4.0%44%47%–4%5%
TargetSmart (D) Archived September 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 8–13, 2018800± 4.0%46%51%–1%3%
FOX News September 8–11, 2018710 LV± 3.5%44%47%–2%5%
801 RV± 3.5%42%46%–3%7%
Gravis Marketing Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 5–7, 2018882± 3.3%49%48%––3%
OH Predictive Insights September 5–6, 2018597± 4.0%49%46%––6%
Data Orbital Archived September 12, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 4–6, 2018550± 4.2%42%46%–2% [202] 9%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%44%48%––8%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%39%43%––19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%44%48%––7%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%32%40%–9%20%
CBS News/YouGov June 19–22, 2018869 LV–37%45%–7%10%
998 RV± 3.7%34%41%–8%14%
NBC News/Marist College June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%38%49%–2%11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%42%51%––7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%42%48%––10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] March 15–16, 2018547± 4.2%41%46%––13%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017600± 4.0%45%46%––9%
Revily (R) [upper-alpha 2] October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%29%33%––37%
Hypothetical polling
with Kelli Ward
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kelli
Ward (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%41%51%–8%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%37%46%–17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%41%52%–7%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%26%43%8%23%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018867 LV± 3.7%38%46%6%9%
996 RV35%43%7%14%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%38%48%2%12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%43%51%–6%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%40%50%–10%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017600± 4.0%43%46%–11%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%34%33%–33%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived November 8, 2017, at the Wayback Machine October 23–26, 2017500± 4.4%27%34%–39%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine August 18–19, 2017400± 4.9%31%32%–38%
with Joe Arpaio
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Arpaio (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		OtherUndecided
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018600± 4.0%36%54%–10%
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%33%52%–14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 20181,290± 4.5%34%57%–9%
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–22, 2018650± 4.0%30%54%8%9%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018868 LV± 3.7%29%49%13%8%
996 RV28%45%13%11%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018839± 4.5%32%57%2%9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 20181,667± 4.0%32%61%–7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018600± 4.0%33%59%–8%
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Morning Consult Archived July 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 29 – July 9, 20181,641± 2.0%35%42%23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018547± 4.2%47%45%8%
with Jeff Flake
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Undecided
GBA Strategies August 30 – September 7, 2017600± 4.0%40%47%13%
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine August 18–19, 2017400± 4.9%33%41%27%
Public Policy Polling May 13–15, 2016896± 3.3%38%36%27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Jeff
Flake (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) Archived August 4, 2017, at the Wayback Machine July 31 – August 1, 2017704± 2.0%31%47%22%
with Matt Salmon
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Salmon (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (D)		Undecided
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017850± 3.4%30%32%38%

Results

The race was too close to call on election day. [203] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted. [204] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead. [205] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election. [206] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day. [207] The results were certified on December 3, 2018. [208]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988. [207] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona. [209]

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018 [1]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 1,191,100 49.96% +3.76%
Republican Martha McSally 1,135,20047.61%-1.62%
Green Angela Green57,4422.41%N/A
Write-in 5660.02%N/A
Total votes2,384,308 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County [210] Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic 		Martha McSally
Republican 		Angela Green
Green 		Write-inMarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%
Apache 16,29864.977,81031.139613.83180.078,48833.8325,087
Cochise 17,38338.1626,92959.121,2122.66250.05-9,546-20.9645,549
Coconino 34,24061.9419,24934.821,7573.18340.0614,99127.1255,280
Gila 7,64337.2812,18059.426743.2920.01-4,537-22.1320,499
Graham 3,36831.766,87064.773633.4250.05-3,502-33.0210,606
Greenlee 1,04240.591,41655.161084.2110.04-374-14.572,567
La Paz 1,60931.723,26564.361993.9200.00-1,656-32.645,073
Maricopa 732,76150.96672,50546.7732,3712.253150.0260,2564.191,437,952
Mohave 19,21426.8850,20970.252,0272.84190.03-30,995-43.3771,469
Navajo 16,62445.3718,76751.221,2383.38110.03-2,143-5.8536,640
Pima 221,24256.65160,55041.118,7102.23660.0260,69215.54390,568
Pinal 50,39542.9363,78254.333,1832.71350.03-13,387-11.40117,395
Santa Cruz 9,24168.513,82828.384183.1010.015,41340.1313,488
Yavapai 40,16037.0665,30860.262,8702.65300.03-25,148-23.21108,368
Yuma 19,88045.4222,53251.481,3513.0940.01-2,652-6.0643,767
Totals1,191,10049.961,135,20047.6157,4422.415660.0255,9002.342,384,308

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional districts

Sinema won 5 of the 9 congressional districts. [211]

DistrictSinemaMcSallyRepresentative
1st 50.64%46.47% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 52.63%45.23% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 63.9%32.93% Raúl Grijalva
4th 32.85%64.49% Paul Gosar
5th 42.35%55.54% Andy Biggs
6th 47.4%50.81% David Schweikert
7th 75.43%21.19% Ruben Gallego
8th 42.88%54.89% Debbie Lesko
9th 61.37%36.41% Greg Stanton

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupSinemaMcSallyNo
answer		 % of
voters
Gender
Men4949247
Women5147253
Age
18–24 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
25–29 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
30–39 years old5739417
40–49 years old5048217
50–64 years old4455129
65 and older5148129
Race
White 4553275
Black N/AN/AN/A2
Latino 6830218
Asian N/AN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/AN/A3
Race and gender
White men4255334
White women4752141
Black menN/AN/AN/A1
Black womenN/AN/AN/A1
Latino men663229
Latina women702829
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less5046425
Some college education4554128
Associate Degree 4353410
Bachelor's Degree 5247323
Advanced degree6237114
Education and race
White college graduates5545N/A27
White no college degree3958348
Non-white college graduates722719
Non-white no college degree6533216
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5644N/A15
White women without college degrees4256226
White men with college degrees5347N/A12
White men without college degrees3561422
Non-whites6831125
Military service
Veteran3859314
Non-veteran5445186
Income
Under $30,0006234415
$30,000-$49,9996336118
$50,000-$99,9994849333
$100,000-$199,9994158124
Over $200,0004456N/A9
Party ID
Democrats 973N/A32
Republicans 1286238
Independents 5047331
Party by gender
Democratic men946N/A14
Democratic women991N/A17
Republican men691315
Republican women1683123
Independent men5047318
Independent women5047313
Ideology
Liberals 946N/A22
Moderates 6335238
Conservatives 1484240
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5344315
No4850285
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 7720342
Immigration 1683131
Economy 3960118
Gun policy N/AN/AN/A7
Area type
Urban6039143
Suburban4454251
RuralN/AN/AN/A6
Source: CNN [212]

Aftermath

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain. [213] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019, [214] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties.[ citation needed ] Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the previous year;[ citation needed ] the first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997. [215] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.[ citation needed ]

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress[ citation needed ] and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election. [216] [217]

Notes

    Partisan clients
    1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by McSally's campaign.
    2. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by Ward's campaign.
    3. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care, an Affordable Care Act advocacy group, and is affiliated with Democratic candidates.

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    120. ↑ Skabelund, Adrian (June 29, 2018). "Campaign Corner: Mayor Evans endorses Sinema for U.S. Senate". Arizona Daily Sun. Archived from the original on July 2, 2018. Retrieved July 2, 2018.
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    122. 1 2 "AZ-Sen: Jason Kander (D. MO) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Prevent Sheriff Joe From Becoming Senator Joe". Daily Kos. March 28, 2018. Archived from the original on March 30, 2018. Retrieved March 30, 2018.
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    135. 1 2 Tiffany Muller (October 12, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
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    140. 1 2 "AZ-Sen: Jason Kander Refuses To Let Notorious Racist Joe Arpaio (R) Into Another Position Of Power". Daily Kos. January 10, 2018. Archived from the original on January 12, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
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    150. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
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    157. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Archived from the original on July 4, 2018. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
    158. 1 2 Samuels, Brett (October 10, 2018). "George W. Bush, Mitt Romney to visit Arizona to boost Martha McSally". The Hill . Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
    159. ↑ Flaherty, Joseph (October 29, 2018). "Family of Betsy DeVos Boosts Martha McSally's Campaign With Donations". Phoenix New Times. Archived from the original on October 30, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
    160. ↑ Mike Pence. "Big win for @MarthaMcSally in Arizona! Martha served our nation with distinction in the @usairforce & she will be a great addition to the US Senate helping enact the @realDonaldTrump agenda. Get out and support Martha in November!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
    161. ↑ "Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Endorses Martha McSally For US Senate". McSally for Senate. November 2, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
    162. ↑ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally, running in the Arizona Primary for U.S. Senate, was endorsed by rejected Senator Jeff Flake....and turned it down – a first! Now Martha, a great U.S. Military fighter jet pilot and highly respected member of Congress, WINS BIG. Congratulations, and on to November!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
    163. ↑ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
    164. ↑ John Boozman. "As a USAF fighter pilot, @MarthaMcSally served bravely & honorably—blazing a bold trail for girls and young women. In Congress she's a leader and powerful advocate for our military, veterans & border security. She'd be a great addition to the US Senate. Good luck Martha! #AZSen". Twitter.
    165. ↑ McSally For Senate. "Excited to have Senator Susan Collins in town this week! #AZSEN". Twitter.
    166. ↑ Joni Ernst. ".@MarthaMcSally and I wore uniforms – not tutus ... #Veterans need strong voices for them in the Senate. Vote for Martha! #AZSEN". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 26, 2018. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
    167. ↑ "Lindsey Graham on Twitter". Twitter.
    168. ↑ "Liz Cheney on Twitter". Twitter.
    169. ↑ "Mitt Romney, Gov. Doug Ducey rally for Martha McSally". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved October 17, 2018.
    170. ↑ "State Senator Karen Fann Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 24, 2018. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
    171. ↑ "Former Representative Steve Pierce Endorses Martha McSally for Senate". McSally for Senate. October 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
    172. ↑ Yvonne Wingett Sanchez (November 1, 2018). "Jan Brewer, Kelli Ward cut radio ad to help Martha McSally in U.S. Senate race". The Arizona Republic . Retrieved November 2, 2018.
    173. ↑ "Maricopa County Attorney Endorses Martha McSally for United States Senate". McSally for Senate. October 3, 2018. Archived from the original on October 4, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2018.
    174. ↑ "Rudy Giuliani on Twitter". Twitter.
    175. ↑ Kimberly Guilfoyle. "Great to campaign with ⁦@MarthaMcSally⁩ AZ deserves a strong conservative that supports ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ ... Trump Jr. attends GOP Get Out the Vote rally". Twitter. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
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    181. ↑ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
    182. ↑ "Obama endorses Kyrsten Sinema and Democrats in Arizona governor, AG races" . Retrieved October 16, 2018.
    183. ↑ Brian Schatz. "I'm also sending money to @kyrstensinema because she's in a very tough race for Senate in Arizona. Please help". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
    184. ↑ "AZ-Sen: Rep. Conor Lamb (D. PA) Helps Kyrsten Sinema (D) Get Ready To Defeat Martha McSally (R)". Daily Kos. August 29, 2018.
    185. ↑ Grant Woods. ".@KyrstenSinema is a strong and principled leader who will be a great senator for Arizona. As a former Attorney General, I'm proud to endorse Kyrsten because I know that when it comes to keeping our families safe, Kyrsten is tough as nails. #AZsen". Twitter. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved October 2, 2018.
    186. ↑ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (November 1, 2018). "Green Party candidate drops out, throws support to Kyrsten Sinema in Senate race". azcentral.
    187. ↑ Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
    188. ↑ Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018– via Twitter.
    189. ↑ McCubbin III, George (September 8, 2018). "AFGE | AFGE Endorses Arizona's Kyrsten Sinema for U.S. Senate". www.afge.org. American Federation of Government Employees District 12. Archived from the original on September 10, 2018. Retrieved September 10, 2018.
    190. ↑ "Endorsements". Arizona AFL–CIO. August 10, 2018. Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 10, 2018.
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    200. ↑ "Don't believe the attack ads. Here's who Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally really are". The Arizona Republic. October 21, 2018.
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    202. ↑ Adam Kokesh (L) with 2%
    203. ↑ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (November 7, 2018). "The McSally-Sinema Senate race is too close to call. Now what happens?". The Arizona Republic.
    204. ↑ "Counting continues in tight Arizona Senate race". KGUN 9 Tucson News. November 7, 2018.
    205. ↑ Arkin, James (November 8, 2018). "Sinema takes slim lead in too-close-to-call Arizona Senate race". POLITICO.
    206. ↑ Zarrell, Matt (November 12, 2018). "Democrat Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race". ABC News. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
    207. 1 2 Leingang, Rachel. "Martha McSally concedes to Kyrsten Sinema after 'hard-fought battle'". The Arizona Republic.
    208. ↑ "It's officially over: Top Arizona officials certify November election results". KTAR.com. December 3, 2018.
    209. ↑ "Kyrsten Sinema Becomes First Female Senator Elected From Arizona". Roll Call. November 13, 2018.
    210. ↑ "2018 Election Information". 2018 Election Information | Arizona Secretary of State. Arizona Department of State. Retrieved May 16, 2020.
    211. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
    212. ↑ "Arizona Senate Election exit poll". CNN . Retrieved March 29, 2019.
    213. ↑ Martin, Jonathan; Hakim, Danny (September 4, 2018). "Jon Kyl, Former Senator, Will Replace McCain in Arizona". The New York Times. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
    214. ↑ "Kyrsten Sinema, Martha McSally sworn in as US senators". 12news.com. January 3, 2019.
    215. ↑ Mapes, Jeff (July 26, 2013). "The Ron Wyden-Gordon Smith buddy act: The Photo Vault". oregonlive.
    216. ↑ "Lawsuit Accuses Arizona Governor of Violating Constitution Over Appointment to John McCain's Senate Seat". Fortune.
    217. ↑ LeVine, Marianne (November 4, 2020). "Kelly defeats McSally in Arizona Senate race". POLITICO.
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