2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi
Flag of Mississippi (2001-2020).svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout49.7% Decrease2.svg
  Roger F. Wicker crop.jpg David Baria (cropped).jpg
Nominee Roger Wicker David Baria
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote547,619369,567
Percentage58.49%39.47%

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate Election in Mississippi by congressional district.svg
2018 Mississippi Senate regular.svg
Wicker:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90-100%
Baria:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90%

U.S. senator before election

Roger Wicker
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roger Wicker
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.

Contents

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary fails to produce a majority winner. [1] The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisan jungle primary for the other U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated by Thad Cochran in the spring of 2018.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Roger Wicker
U.S. Presidents
Governors
Statewide Officials
U.S. Senators
Mississippi State Officials
  • Dane Maxwell, Mayor of Pascagoula [16]
Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)
Political operatives
  • Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC [17]
  • Laura Van Overschelde, Chair of the Mississippi Tea Party [18]
  • Grant Sowell, Chair of the Tupelo Tea Party [19]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roger
Wicker
Chris
McDaniel
Tate
Reeves
Undecided
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 201844666%16%18%
JMC Analytics February 15–17, 2018500± 4.4%38%15%47%
38%20%42%
Mason-Dixon December 13–15, 2017400± 5.0%49%33%18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker) April 22–25, 2017500± 4.2%55%30%14%

Results

Results by county
Map legend
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Wicker-->=90%
Wicker--80-90%
Wicker--70-80%
Wicker--60-70% 2018MSUSSENGOP.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Wicker—≥90%
  •   Wicker—80–90%
  •   Wicker—70–80%
  •   Wicker—60–70%
Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Roger Wicker (incumbent) 130,118 82.79%
Republican Richard Boyanton27,05217.21%
Total votes157,170 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Jensen Bohren
Organizations
  • Jackpine Radicals [30]
  • Vote STEM [31]
  • Sustainable Politician Project [32]
  • Mississippi DSA [33]
David Baria
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
David
Baria
Jensen
Bohren
Omeria
Scott
Howard
Sherman
Undecided
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 20184467%4%9%2%79%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Baria
Chuck
Espy
Jim
Hood
Bennie
Thompson
Undecided
Triumph Campaigns January 29, 20182,145± 1.8%33%47%20%
10%34%56%

Results

Initial primary results by county
Map legend
Sherman--50-60%
Sherman--40-50%
Sherman--30-40%
Baria--30-40%
Baria--40-50%
Baria--50-60%
Baria--60-70%
Baria--80-90%
Scott--30-40%
Scott--40-50%
Scott--50-60%
Scott--70-80%
Scott--80-90%
Garland--50-60% Mississippi US Senate Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Initial primary results by county
Map legend
  •   Sherman—50–60%
  •   Sherman—40–50%
  •   Sherman—30–40%
  •   Baria—30–40%
  •   Baria—40–50%
  •   Baria—50–60%
  •   Baria—60–70%
  •   Baria—80–90%
  •   Scott—30–40%
  •   Scott—40–50%
  •   Scott—50–60%
  •   Scott—70–80%
  •   Scott—80–90%
  •   Garland—50–60%
Democratic primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Howard Sherman 27,957 31.79%
Democratic David Baria 27,244 30.98%
Democratic Omeria Scott 21,27824.20%
Democratic Victor G. Maurice Jr.4,3614.96%
Democratic Jerone Garland4,2664.85%
Democratic Jensen Bohren2,8253.21%
Total votes87,931 100%

Runoff results

Primary runoff results by county
Map legend
Baria-->=90%
Baria--80-90%
Baria--70-80%
Baria--60-70%
Baria--50-60%
Sherman--50-60%
Sherman--60-70%
Sherman--70-80%
Sherman--80-90% 2018 MS US Senate Democratic runoff.svg
Primary runoff results by county
Map legend
  •   Baria—≥90%
  •   Baria—80–90%
  •   Baria—70–80%
  •   Baria—60–70%
  •   Baria—50–60%
  •   Sherman—50–60%
  •   Sherman—60–70%
  •   Sherman—70–80%
  •   Sherman—80–90%
Democratic primary runoff results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic David Baria 44,156 58.64%
Democratic Howard Sherman31,14941.36%
Total votes75,305 100%

Independents and third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared

Reform Party

Declared

  • Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate [23]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [40] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [41] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [42] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [43] Likely RJuly 9, 2018
CNN [44] Safe RJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [45] Safe RJune 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Roger Wicker (R)$5,349,028$3,831,418$3,138,044
David Baria (D)$532,629$528,325$72,922
Source: Federal Election Commission [46]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Roger
Wicker (R)
David
Baria (D)
Danny
Bedwell (L)
OtherUndecided
Change Research November 2–4, 20181,00348%40%5%3% [47]
Marist College October 13–18, 2018511 LV± 6.1%57%31%2%2% [48] 9%
60%32%2%7%
856 RV± 4.7%54%30%3%2% [48] 10%
57%32%2%9%
SurveyMonkey September 9–24, 2018985± 4.3%43%29%27%
Triumph Campaigns July 30–31, 20182,100± 3.5%53%32%1%2% [49] 12%
Triumph Campaigns April 10–11, 20181,000± 3.0%48%31%21%

Results

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018 [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Roger Wicker (incumbent) 547,619 58.49% +1.33%
Democratic David Baria 369,56739.47%-1.08%
Libertarian Danny Bedwell12,9811.39%N/A
Reform Shawn O'Hara6,0480.65%-0.41%
Total votes936,215 100% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  47. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 3%
  48. 1 2 Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 1%, other with 1%
  49. Shawn O'Hara (Reform) with 2%
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Official campaign websites