2018 Colorado gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
Flag of Colorado.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
  Jared Polis official photo (cropped).jpg Walker Stapleton (cropped).JPG
Nominee Jared Polis Walker Stapleton
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Dianne Primavera Lang Sias
Popular vote1,348,8881,080,801
Percentage53.42%42.80%

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Colorado gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
2018 Colorado gubernatorial election by State House District.svg
CO Governor 2018.svg
Polis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Stapleton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes

Governor before election

John Hickenlooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jared Polis
Democratic

The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26. [1]

Contents

The major party nominees were Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes. [2] [3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.

Democratic primary

With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018. [4]

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Eliminated at the convention

  • Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucus results

On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many delegates each candidate who was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m., 96.83% of precincts had reported and added up to the below results. [25]

Endorsements

Jared Polis
Organizations
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado – International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund
Federal officials
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Mayors
City Councilors
Others
Mike Johnston
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
  • Gabrielle Aragon, former San Luis Council member
  • Albus Brooks, Denver City Council President
  • Lisa Flores, Denver Public School Board of Education member
  • Tracy Johnson, Academy District 20 Board of Education member
  • Jeanne McQueeney, Eagle County Commissioner [31]
  • Theresa Peña, formerDenver Public Schools Board of Education member [32]
  • Christina Rinderle, former Durango Mayor
  • Wellington Webb, former Mayor of Denver [30]
Organizations
  • Students for Education Reform [33]
Newspapers
Individuals
Cary Kennedy
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Donna Lynne
State legislators
  • Janet Buckner, State Representative
  • Jean Dubofsky, former state Supreme Court Justice
  • JoAnn Ginal, State Representative
  • Lucia Guzman, State Senator
Local officials
  • Leanna Clark, vice chancellor for the University of Colorado Denver
  • Kathy Maloney Green, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s former spokeswoman
  • Jacque Montgomery, Gov. John Hickenlooper’s spokeswoman
  • Marguerite Salazar, Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies executive director
  • Tamra Ward, Denver Zoo chief external relations officer
Ed Perlmutter (withdrawn)

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Johnston
Cary
Kennedy
Donna
Lynne
Jared
Polis
OtherUndecided
Strategies 360 May 29 – June 6, 2018387± 5.0%12%23%2%34%29%
Magellan Strategies (R) May 30–31, 2018503± 4.4%9%18%3%31%39%
TargetPoint/GQR March 201818%18%12%52%
Magellan Strategies (R) March 20–23, 2018410± 4.8%8%23%5%27%1%36%
University of Colorado Boulder November 9–15, 2017357± 3.5%4%6%4%24%2% [43] 58%

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Polis
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Kennedy
30-40%
40-50%
Johnston
30-40%
40-50% 2018 Colorado gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Polis
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kennedy
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Johnston
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jared Polis 282,725 44.46
Democratic Cary Kennedy 157,09824.71
Democratic Mike Johnston 149,71723.55
Democratic Donna Lynne 46,3167.28
Total votes635,856 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Eliminated at the convention

Withdrawn

Declined

Caucus results

Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey, the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from key counties. [66]

Pueblo County

Douglas County

Endorsements

George Brauchler (withdrawn)
Individuals
Tom Tancredo (withdrawn)
Political Commentators

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cynthia
Coffman
Greg
Lopez
Victor
Mitchell
Doug
Robinson
Walker
Stapleton
OtherUndecided
Magellan Strategies (R) June 6–7, 2018593± 4.0%10%23%4%36%27%
TargetPoint/GQR March 20187%15%16%62%
Magellan Strategies (R) February 26–27, 2018647± 3.9%13%5%8%26%9%39%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
George
Brauchler
Cynthia
Coffman
Victor
Mitchell
Doug
Robinson
Walker
Stapleton
Tom
Tancredo
Undecided
University of Colorado Boulder November 9–15, 2017250± 3.5%4%6%1%1%8%25%54%
Braynard Group (R) September 26–28, 2017400± 3.2%7%6%1%0.3%8.5%22%54%

Results

Results by county:
Stapleton
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Mitchell
40-50% 2018 Colorado gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Stapleton
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Mitchell
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Walker Stapleton 239,415 47.66
Republican Victor Mitchell 151,36530.13
Republican Greg Lopez 66,33013.20
Republican Doug Robinson45,2459.01
Total votes502,355 100.0

Third party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

DatesLocationPolisStapletonLink
October 6, 2018 Grand Junction, Colorado ParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [74] Lean DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [75] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [76] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [77] Lean DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [79] Lean DNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [80] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [81] [lower-alpha 1] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Politico [82] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Governing [83] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

Endorsements

Jared Polis (D)
Organizations
  • Colorado Professional Firefighters (CPFF)
  • Humane Society
  • IBEW Colorado, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
  • National Cannabis Industry Association
  • National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML)
  • Pipefitters Local 208
  • Sierra Club
  • Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters
  • Victory Fund
Federal officials
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Mayors
City Councilors
Others
Walker Stapleton (R)
Presidents of the United States
Vice Presidents of the United States
Federal officials
State officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Local officials
Mayors
District attorneys
  • Brett Barkey (14th Judicial District) [115]
  • Jim Bullock (16th Judicial District) [115]
  • Jeff Cheney (9th Judicial District) [115]
  • Molly Chilson (11th Judicial District) [115]
  • Brittny Lewton (13th Judicial District) [115]
  • Dan May (4th Judicial District) [115]
  • Cliff Riedel (8th Judicial District) [115]
  • Michael J. Rourke (19th Judicial District) [115]
  • Dan Rubinstein (21st Judicial District) [115]
  • Josh Vogel (15th Judicial District) [115]
  • Pete Weir (1st Judicial District) [115]
Sheriffs
Others
  • Doug Robinson, businessman [116]
  • Nick Rogers, president of the Denver Police Protective Association [115]
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis
(D)
Walker
Stapleton
(R)
Scott
Helker
(L)
OtherUndecided
Magellan Strategies October 29–30, 2018500± 4.4%45%40%3%1% [127] 11%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns October 25–30, 2018517± 4.3%50%42%4%1% [127] 4%
University of Colorado/YouGov October 12–17, 2018800± 3.5%54%42%3%2%
Magellan Strategies October 8–10, 2018500± 4.4%47%40%4%0% [128] 9%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies September 18–20, 2018600± 4.0%47%40%1%0% [128] 11%
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS August 15 – September 19, 20181,58544%33%21%
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party) June 27–28, 201860847%40%13%
Strategies 360 May 29 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%42%37%3%18%
Hypothetical polling
with Cary Kennedy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cary
Kennedy (D)
Walker
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Strategies 360 May 23 – June 6, 2018500± 4.4%43%38%4%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA) [ permanent dead link ]May 8–10, 2018883± 3.3%52%37%11%
with Tom Tancredo
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jared
Polis (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%46%38%16%
Braynard Group (R) September 26–28, 20171,000± 3.2%25%25%3%47%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Cary
Kennedy (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%45%38%17%
Keating Research (D) November 9–13, 2017500± 4.4%50%34%3%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mike
Johnston (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%43%39%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donna
Lynne (D)
Tom
Tancredo (R)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) December 4–5, 2017770± 3.5%43%38%19%

Results

2018 Colorado gubernatorial election [129]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jared Polis 1,348,888 53.42% +4.12%
Republican Walker Stapleton 1,080,80142.80%-3.15%
Libertarian Scott Helker69,5192.75%+0.81%
Unity Bill Hammons25,8541.02%
Majority268,08710.62%+7.27%
Turnout 2,525,062
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts. [130]

DistrictStapletonPolisRepresentative
1st 23.7%73.05% Diana DeGette
2nd 34.48%66.42% Joe Neguse
3rd 49.96%46.26% Scott Tipton
4th 57.67%38.11% Ken Buck
5th 56.64%38.97% Doug Lamborn
6th 42.36%54.29% Jason Crow
7th 38.38%57.03% Ed Perlmutter

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  128. 1 2 Bill Hammons (U) with 0%
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Official campaign websites