2018 United States Senate election in Nevada

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
Flag of Nevada.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout62.26% Increase2.svg
  Jacky Rosen, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped-1).jpg Dean Heller, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jacky Rosen Dean Heller
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote490,071441,202
Percentage50.41%45.38%

2018 United States Senate election in Nevada results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Nevada results by congressional district.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Nevada map by precinct.svg
Rosen:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     80–90%     >90%
Heller:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     80–90%     >90%

U.S. senator before election

Dean Heller
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jacky Rosen
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Dean Heller.

Contents

Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections. [1] [2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for Governor of Nevada.

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12. [3]

Background

Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election. [4] [5]

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks [6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh. [7] [8]

Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972. [9]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Sherry Brooks
  • Sarah Gazala, teacher [10]
  • Vic Harrell
  • Tom Heck
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator [11]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Dean Heller
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State officials
State senators
State assembly members
Local officials
Individuals
Groups
Danny Tarkanian (withdrew)
Federal officials
Governors

Polling

Hypothetical polling
with Danny Tarkanian
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller
Danny
Tarkanian
Undecided
JMC Analytics October 24–26, 2017500± 4.4%38%44%17%
JMC Analytics August 24–25, 2017700± 3.7%31%39%31%
The Tarrance Group (R-Heller) August 14–16, 2017300± 5.8%55%33%12%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Heller--70-80%
Heller--60-70%
Heller--50-60% 2018 NV US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Heller—70–80%
  •   Heller—60–70%
  •   Heller—50–60%
Republican primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent) 99,509 69.97%
Republican Tom Heck26,29618.49%
Republican None of These Candidates 5,9784.20%
Republican Sherry Brooks5,1453.62%
Republican Sarah Gazala4,0112.82%
Republican Vic Harrell1,2820.90%
Total votes142,221 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Danny Burleigh
  • David Drew Knight
  • Sujeet "Bobby" Mahendra, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 [34]
  • Allen Rheinhart, civil rights activist (Black Lives Matter), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016
  • Jacky Rosen, U.S. Representative for NV-03 [35]
  • Jesse Sbaih, attorney and candidate for NV-03 in 2016 [36]

Declined

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
Rosen--80-90%
Rosen--70-80%
Rosen--60-70%
Rosen--50-60%
Rosen--30-40%
Rosen/Knight tie--<30% 2018 NV US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Rosen—80–90%
  •   Rosen—70–80%
  •   Rosen—60–70%
  •   Rosen—50–60%
  •   Rosen—30–40%
  •   Rosen/Knight tie—<30%
Democratic primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jacky Rosen 110,567 77.11%
Democratic None of These Candidates 10,0787.03%
Democratic David Knight6,3464.43%
Democratic Allen Rheinhart4,7823.33%
Democratic Jesse Sbaih4,5403.17%
Democratic Bobby Mahendra3,8352.67%
Democratic Danny Burleigh3,2442.26%
Total votes143,392 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Kamau Bakari [76]
  • Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate [77]

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [78] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [79] Tilt D (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [80] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
CNN [81] TossupOctober 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics [82] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [83] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Fox News [84] TossupOctober 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [85] TossupNovember 6, 2018

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen (D)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Websites and newspapers
Dean Heller (R)
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
State officials
State senators
State assembly members
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Dean Heller (R) Incumbent$14,525,094$12,538,859$2,211,457
Jacky Rosen (D)$21,571,221$20,817,629$768,851
Source: Federal Election Commission [109]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Jacky
Rosen (D)
Tim
Hagan (L)
None of
these
OtherUndecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%45%47%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%46%46%
Emerson College November 1–4, 20181,197± 3.0%45%49%3%4%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%46%45%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%45%44%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%46%43%
Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 1, 20182,587± 1.9%49%46%2%3%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%45%45%
HarrisX October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%43%46%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018622 LV± 4.8%45%48%2%4%0%1%
807 RV± 4.2%41%44%4%8%0%3%
Gravis Marketing Archived November 5, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 24–26, 2018773± 3.5%45%47%7%
Ipsos October 12–19, 20181,137± 3.0%47%41%8%4%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) October 15–16, 2018648± 3.9%46%48%7%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018614± 3.7%49%51%
Emerson College October 10–12, 2018625± 4.2%48%41%3%8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–10, 2018642± 4.0%47%45%1%7%
NBC News/Marist September 30 – October 3, 2018574 LV± 5.5%44%42%8%2%<1%4%
46%44%5%1%4%
780 RV± 4.5%42%41%8%3%<1%6%
45%43%6%1%6%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS September 19 – October 2, 2018513± 5.0%45%44%4%7%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018693 LV± 4.6%43%47%4%5%0%1%
851 RV± 4.1%40%43%5%10%0%2%
Ipsos September 7–17, 20181,039± 4.0%46%43%4%8%
Gravis Marketing September 11–12, 2018700± 3.7%45%47%8%
Suffolk University Archived December 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine [lower-alpha 1] September 5–10, 2018500± 4.4%41%42%2%2%4% [110] 9%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) August 20–21, 2018528± 4.3%43%48%
Suffolk University Archived July 31, 2018, at the Wayback Machine July 24–29, 2018500± 4.4%41%40%2%5%3% [111] 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 20181,097± 5.5%45%48%7%
Gravis Marketing June 23–26, 2018630± 3.9%41%45%14%
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) April 30 – May 1, 2018637± 3.9%42%44%14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 20181,332± 5.0%44%50%6%
The Mellman Group April 12–19, 2018600± 4.0%40%39%21%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–17, 2018720± 3.7%39%44%17%
Public Policy Polling June 23–25, 2017648± 3.9%41%42%17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) July 26–27, 2017847± 3.6%31%50%18%
Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care) June 13–14, 2017706± 3.4%39%46%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–17, 2018720± 3.7%41%47%12%
with Dina Titus
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dean
Heller (R)
Dina
Titus (D)
Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research June 23–29, 2017600± 4.0%47%45%8%

Results

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018 [112]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jacky Rosen 490,071 50.41% +5.70%
Republican Dean Heller (incumbent)441,20245.38%-0.49%
None of These Candidates 15,3031.57%-2.97%
Independent Barry Michaels9,2690.95%N/A
Libertarian Tim Hagan 9,1960.95%N/A
Independent American Kamau Bakari7,0910.73%-4.16%
Total votes972,132 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Heller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest, Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes. [113]

By county
County Jacky Rosen
Democratic
Dean Heller
Republican
None of These
Candidates
Barry Michaels
Independent
Tim Hagan
Libertarian
Kamau Bakari
IAPN
MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Carson City 9,32141.0712,32854.323721.642501.102541.121690.74-3,007-13.2522,694
Churchill 1,99920.807,04273.262182.271451.511161.21920.96-5,042-52.479,612
Clark 359,02855.06266,67540.909,8101.505,9220.915,8230.894,7860.7392,35314.16652,044
Douglas 8,30331.8616,74264.253881.492240.862661.021340.51-8,439-32.3926,057
Elko 2,90419.1411,49175.732601.711721.132051.351420.94-8,587-56.5915,174
Esmeralda 5214.0228075.47174.5892.43102.7030.81-228-61.46371
Eureka 749.7663383.51222.90131.7291.1970.92-559-73.75758
Humboldt 1,18821.414,02272.481392.50781.41711.28510.92-2,834-51.075,549
Lander 35016.721,58875.87643.06301.43361.72251.19-1,238-59.152,093
Lincoln 28314.511,54779.33623.18271.38211.08100.51-1,264-64.821,950
Lyon 5,52626.4114,29668.324061.942821.352571.231570.75-8,770-41.9120,924
Mineral 57031.491,05658.34904.97402.21372.04170.94-486-26.851,810
Nye 4,88827.9311,39765.114352.492781.592841.622211.26-6,509-37.1917,503
Pershing 39822.561,27172.05392.21261.47191.08110.62-873-49.491,764
Storey 72430.681,49563.35512.16321.36321.36261.10-771-32.672,360
Washoe 93,82849.8586,98846.212,8291.501,6820.891,7160.911,1840.636,8403.63188,227
White Pine 63519.592,35172.521013.12591.82401.23561.73-1,716-52.933,242
Totals490,07150.41441,20245.3815,3031.579,2690.959,1960.957,0910.7348,8695.03972,132
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional districts

Rosen won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [114]

DistrictRosenHellerRepresentative
1st 63.77%31.62% Dina Titus
2nd 42.53%53.19% Mark Amodei
3rd 50.39%45.95% Susie Lee
4th 51.44%44.06% Steven Horsford

Notes

  1. Archived December 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dean Heller</span> American politician (born 1960)

Dean Arthur Heller is an American businessman and politician who served as a United States senator representing Nevada from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 15th secretary of state of Nevada from 1995 to 2007 and U.S. representative for Nevada's 2nd congressional district from 2007 to 2011. He was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor Brian Sandoval and elected to a full term in the 2012 election. Heller unsuccessfully ran for a second term in 2018, losing to Democrat Jacky Rosen. He was an unsuccessful candidate for governor of Nevada in 2022.

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References

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  85. Catherine Cortez Masto [@CatherineForNV] (October 20, 2018). "Proud to join @JoeBiden in Las Vegas to get out the vote for @RosenforNevada @nvdems today! I need Jacky by my side in the Senate & all of the fantastic dems running to fight for NV families. We have the power to take back the agenda. Make a plan to vote: http://votenvdems.com" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  86. Jacky Rosen. "There are just 17 DAYS until Nevadans head to the polls. @CoryBooker is #ReadyForRosen". Twitter.
  87. Dick Durbin. "Nevada is one of the most critical battlegrounds in the country. Support @RosenForNevada and help #FlipTheSenate". Twitter.
  88. Kirsten Gillibrand. "For Democrats to take back the Senate in November, we must elect @RosenforNevada. But President Trump is in NV today to campaign for her right-wing opponent, so #TodayWeAct to make an impact where we can in a race this tight – and this important. Here are 3 ways to get involved". Twitter.
  89. NV Dems. ""You make a difference. Every time you make a phone call, every time you knock on a door, you have the chance to get one more voter for Jacky and Susie!" Senator @maziehirono is right". Twitter.
  90. Brian Schatz. "Donald Trump is coming to Nevada this weekend to campaign, and I would like for us to raise money for Jacky Rosen in response. The race is very very very close. Please do what you can and thank you". Twitter.
  91. Terri Sewell. "Speaking at a Sheppard's Breakfast in Las Vegas with my friends and colleagues @RosenforNevada, and @StevenHorsford! #BlueWaveComing2018". Twitter.
  92. 1 2 Jacky Rosen. "You won't want to miss our Get Out the Vote Rally to Protect our Health Care on Friday with @JimmyKimmel, @BrandonFlowers, and @KamalaHarris". Twitter.
  93. Jacky Rosen. "Thank you for your support, @CecileRichards!". Twitter.
  94. Adam Rippon. "Hey Nevadans! YOU have the power to make change by getting out and voting tomorrow for @RosenForNevada and @nvdems! #RiseNVote #ProudToVoteEarly". Twitter.
  95. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 via Twitter.
  96. Amy Schumer. "News". Twitter.
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  103. John Boozman. "I'm proud to serve with @DeanHeller in the Senate. Working with him on the #Veterans' Affairs committee, I know Dean cares deeply about ensuring our nation lives up to the promises made to those who have served & sacrificed for America and he'll continue that fight if re-elected". Twitter.
  104. 1 2 Dean Heller. "Looking forward to having Senator @LindseyGrahamSC and @SenCoryGardner here in Nevada!". Twitter.
  105. Thom Tillis. ".@DeanHeller has been a staunch champion for our veterans as a member of the Senate VA Committee. His opponent just voted against government funding for veterans' benefits". Twitter.
  106. Donald Trump Jr. "It's simple - A vote for liberal Jacky Rosen is a vote to turn Nevada into California. Nevada patriots - Get out the vote on Tuesday for @Deanheller! #MAGA #NVSEN". Twitter.
  107. "EDITORIAL: Return Dean Heller to the US Senate". Las Vegas Review-Journal . October 19, 2018.
  108. "Campaign finance data" . Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  109. Barry Michaels (I) and Kamau Bakari (AI) with 2%
  110. Barry Michaels (I) with 2%, Kamau Bakari (AI) with 1%, other with 0%
  111. "U.S. Senate - Nevada General Election 2018". silverstateelection.com. Archived from the original on August 2, 2019. Retrieved December 2, 2018.
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