2024 United States presidential election in Florida

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Florida

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Florida is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 30 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. ^[1]

Despite being a heavily populated and fast-growing state once considered a presidential battleground and bellwether, Florida has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now seen as a slightly to moderately red state. In 2020, Republican Donald Trump (who changed his resident state from New York to Florida in 2019 ^[2] ) carried the state again by 3.36 percentage points, an improvement from his 1.2% margin in 2016, despite Trump losing re-election nationwide and polls pointing to a narrow Democratic win in Florida. In addition, Republicans won all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms. ^[3] Thus, Florida is widely expected to at least lean towards Republicans in 2024. ^[4]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for re-election to a second term. ^[5]

On May 23, 2024, the Reform Party of Florida applied to restore ballot access in the state. ^[6] That same day, the party selected independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for its nomination. ^[7]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Florida Republican presidential primary

The Florida Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Florida Republican Primary, March 19, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	911,424	81.19%	125	0	125
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	155,560	13.86%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	41,269	3.68%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	8,953	0.80%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	2,850	0.25%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	1,385	0.12%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	1,190	0.11%	0	0	0
Total:	1,122,631	100.00%	125	0	125
Source: [8]

Democratic primary

On November 30, 2023, Politico reported that the Florida Democratic Party had only submitted Biden's name to the Secretary of State, which means that the primary will be cancelled under Florida law.

This cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips ^[9] and Marianne Williamson campaigns. ^[10] Williamson and fellow Democratic candidate Cenk Uygur held a press conference over Zoom on December 1 criticizing the move. ^[11] On December 11, 2023, a voter filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to add Phillips, Williamson, and Uygur's name to the ballot. ^[12] The voter lost in district court but is expected to appeal. ^[13]

Winner (Assumptive)

• President Joe Biden

Endorsements

Joe Biden

U.S. Representatives

• Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, FL-20 (2022–present) ^[14]
• Maxwell Frost, ^{[lower-alpha 1]} FL-10 (2023–present) ^[15]
• Darren Soto, FL-09 (2017–present) ^[14]
• Debbie Wasserman Schultz, FL-25 (2023–present), FL-23 (2013–2023), FL-20 (2005–2013), former Chair of the Democratic National Committee (2011–2016) ^[14]
• Val Demings, FL-10 (2017–2023), Chief of the Orlando Police Department (2007–2011), nominee for U.S. Senator from Florida in 2022 ^[16]

State legislators

• Shevrin Jones, ^{[lower-alpha 1]} Florida state senator from the 35th district (2020–present), state representative from the 101st district (2012–2020) ^[17]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden	Hillary Clinton	Kamala Harris	Gavin Newsom	Undecided
Suffolk University	Sep 15–18, 2022	163 (LV)	–	50%	–	–	33%	17%
Suffolk University	Jan 26–29, 2022	164 (LV)	–	43%	46%	–	–	11%
Victory Insights	Sep 16–18, 2021	200 (LV)	–	60%	–	17%	–	23%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [18]	Likely R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [19]	Lean R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20]	Likely R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [21]	Lean R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [22]	Likely R	December 30, 2023
CNN [23]	Lean R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
CBS News/YouGov	May 10–16, 2024	1,209 (RV)	± 3.9%	54%	45%	1%
Prime Group [upper-alpha 1]	May 9–16, 2024	486 (RV)	–	53%	47%	–
Cherry Communications (R) [upper-alpha 2]	April 28 – May 7, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	51%	42%	7%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	April 15–17, 2024	865 (RV)	± 3.3%	50%	42%	8%
		815 (LV)	± 3.3%	51%	43%	6%
Emerson College	April 9–10, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	56%	44%	–
St. Pete Polls	March 11–13, 2024	1,963 (LV)	± 2.2%	48%	42%	10%
Cygnal (R)	November 13–15, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	43%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	October 27 – November 11, 2023	946 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	39%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	1,100 (RV)	–	44%	39%	17%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	June 27 – July 1, 2023	933 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	39%	2%
Metropolitan Research Services	March 15–19, 2023	1,001 (RV)	–	47%	43%	10%
Emerson College	March 13–15, 2023	1,153 (RV)	± 2.8%	44%	44%	12%
University of North Florida	February 25 – March 7, 2023	1,452 (RV)	± 2.6%	50%	43%	7%
Victory Insights	November 16–17, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	49%	51%	–
Rasmussen Reports (R)	November 8–9, 2022	1,224 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	11%
Florida Atlantic University	October 12–16, 2022	719 (LV)	± 3.7%	45%	41%	14%
Suffolk University	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	47%	44%	9%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	815 (LV)	± 4.3%	49%	41%	10%
Suffolk University	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	44%	9%
Victory Insights	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	51%	–
St. Pete Polls	August 16–17, 2021	2,068 (RV)	± 2.2%	47%	48%	5%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)	August 4–10, 2021	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	42%	50%	8%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Prime Group [upper-alpha 1]	May 9–16, 2024	486 (RV)	–	48%	39%	9%	3%	1%	–

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Cherry Communications (R) [upper-alpha 2]	April 28 – May 7, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	37%	10%	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 2-4, 2024	586 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%	38%	6%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	April 15–17, 2024	865 (RV)	± 3.3%	48%	38%	7%	7%
		815 (LV)	± 3.3%	49%	40%	6%	5%
USA Today/Ipsos	April 5–7, 2024	1,014 (A)	± 4.1%	39%	31%	7%	23%
Emerson College	April 9–10, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	35%	6%	11% [lower-alpha 3]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	March 14–17, 2024	815 (LV)	–	46%	39%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	December 28–30, 2023	1,147 (LV)	–	45%	34%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	897 (LV)	–	44%	34%	9%	13%
Cygnal (R)	November 13–15, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	44%	37%	11%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	October 7–9, 2023	1100 (LV)	–	44%	37%	8%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Undecided
Suffolk University	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	46%	44%	10%
Victory Insights	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	51%	–

Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Hillary Clinton Democratic	Undecided
Suffolk University	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	42%	9%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	897 (LV)	–	27%	32%	16%	24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 27–29, 2023	897 (LV)	–	38%	34%	12%	16%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Undecided
Cygnal (R)	November 13–15, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	46%	43%	11%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	October 27 – November 11, 2023	946 (RV)	± 3.2%	47%	39%	15%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	June 27 – July 1, 2023	933 (RV)	± 3.2%	49%	36%	15%
Emerson College	March 13–15, 2023	1,153 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	43%	11%
University of North Florida	February 25 – March 7, 2023	1,452 (RV)	± 2.6%	51%	42%	8%
Cherry Communications	February 10–19, 2023	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	38%	13%
Victory Insights	November 16–17, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	53%	47%	–
Suffolk University	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	52%	44%	4%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	815 (LV)	± 4.3%	51%	42%	7%
Suffolk University	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	44%	4%
Victory Insights	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	51%	–
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)	September 11–12, 2021	1,144 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	55%	–
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)	August 4–10, 2021	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	49%	4%

Ron DeSantis vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Undecided
Suffolk University	September 15–18, 2022	500 (LV)	–	52%	40%	8%
Victory Insights	September 16–18, 2021	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	51%	49%	–

Ron DeSantis vs. Hillary Clinton

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Hillary Clinton Democratic	Undecided
Suffolk University	January 26–29, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	53%	40%	7%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Florida
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board member
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Cornel West & Jill Stein with 1%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
2. Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Kelly, Caroline (November 1, 2019). "Trump ditches New York to become a Florida resident, court documents show | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
3. Friedersdorf, Conor (November 9, 2022). "Is Florida Still a Swing State?". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
4. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
5. Din, Benjamin (March 25, 2021). "Biden: 'My plan is to run for reelection' in 2024". Politico.com. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
6. "Florida Reform Party Works to Restore Party Status and Ballot Access After 2023 Revocation".
7. The Reform Party of the United States on X. (May 23, 2024). "Reform Party of the United States on X: "The Reform Party has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. @RobertKennedyJr for President of the United States and will hand him our automatic ballot access in the State of Florida as well as our advantages as a qualified party. We look forward to working with Mr. Kennedy."". X.com.
8. "Florida Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
9. Otterbein, Holly; Fineout, Gary (November 30, 2023). "Florida Democrats plan to cancel presidential primary, enraging Dean Phillips' campaign". Politico . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
10. John, Arit (November 30, 2023). "Dean Phillips criticizes Florida Democrats for his absence from primary ballot". CNN . Retrieved December 1, 2023.
11. Timotija, Filip (December 1, 2023). "Long-shot candidates blast Florida Democrats for absence on primary ballot". The Hill . Retrieved December 2, 2023.
12. Fineout, Gary (December 11, 2023). "Federal judge asked to place Dean Phillips on Florida primary ballot". POLITICO. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
13. Fineout, Gary (January 12, 2024). "Federal judge rejects attempt to place Dean Phillips on Florida primary ballot". POLITICO. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
14. Cappabianca, Corina (April 25, 2023). "Florida members of Congress react to Biden's reelection announcement". NY1.
15. Stockburger, George (May 10, 2023). "Josh Shapiro, Malcolm Kenyatta named to Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board". ABC27/WHTM.
16. McCammond, Alexi; Treene, Alayna; Solender, Andrew (August 5, 2022). "Dems dodge on Biden '24". Axios. Archived from the original on March 28, 2023.
17. Stockburger, George (May 10, 2023). "Josh Shapiro, Malcolm Kenyatta named to Biden-Harris Campaign National Advisory Board". ABC27/WHTM.
18. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
19. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
20. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
21. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
22. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
23. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.